WI: Venetian Industrial Revolution

This thread is half what-if, half AH challenge. What would it take to get an industrial revolution to happen in the Most Serene Republic of Venice, and what would happen if it did?

First off, by way of acknowledgement, this thread is inspired in part by a magnificent, venerable timeline from back in the heyday of soc.history.what-if: East Meets West (by Coyu). That timeline had a Song industrial revolution (of sorts), and that led to a Venetian industrial revolution (again, of sorts) inspired by stimulus diffusion.

While that was a very entertaining timeline, it’s not what I’m looking for here. Here, I’m trying to figure out a way to accomplish an “indigenous” industrial revolution in Venice, before the historical one in Britain. (If it spreads to Britain later, so be it). I’m also looking to see if this revolution can take place significantly before the OTL one; preferably a century, or better yet two. While the dates of the Industrial Revolution can be argued a bit, as a rough guide the real one happened around 1760-1840. So I’m looking for an ATL Venetian industrial revolution which happens no later than 1660-1740, and which ideally is in its formative stages by 1500.

By way of background, republican Venice had several pluses which would help with an industrial or proto-industrial revolution. The Venetians had worked out the techniques of mass production centuries before Henry T Ford and his assembly line. The Venetian Arsenal was probably the largest industrial complex in pre-Industrial Revolution Europe, with techniques for mass-producing galleys (at ita peak, almost one galley per day) that amounted to a moving assembly line. While shipbuilding was the main function of the Arsenal, it also contributed to other technological developments, particularly in firearms and artillery. Venice also had a high standard of skilled craftsmen in other areas, such as glass making.

In addition to this, Venice also had several other advantages. It had a vigorous, wealthy economy by contemporary standards, a large merchant class with considerable influence over economic policy, good standards of contract law and related matters, and good access to export markets.

There are several barriers, too. Probably the biggest one is how to power an industrial revolution. Venice (and Italy in general) has nowt much in the way of easily accessible coal. Even charcoal / timber is going to be a big problem. Deforestation hit Venice hard, both in their immediate hinterland, and over time even hit their overseas sources of timber (e.g. the Adriatic coast of the Balkans). This will be a hindrance to any industrial revolution in Venice.

There are other problems, too. Metallurgy in Venice is much less advanced than it was in eighteenth-century Britain, particularly in the fourteenth or fifteenth centuries when I’d ideally like to have the first stages of a Venetian Industrial Revolution to begin. This makes developments in things like steam engines (for example) much more difficult.

Textiles are not a complete write-off in Venice, but again, there are barriers to it developing much like it did during the historical Industrial Revolution. Venice does not have much in the way of a supply of cotton, the best fibre to start a textile-driven industrial revolution. The Venetians had better access to wool and (especially) silk, but several changes would be required for this to drive an alternative industrial revolution. As far as I can tell (though my research is still in progress), the Venetian textile industry did not have any particular advantage over other contemporary textile industries (e.g. Flemish wool) that would make it easier for textile mass production to take off in Venice when it did not take off elsewhere until cotton came along.

To return to the advantages for a moment, while there is a lack of coal, Venice’s hinterland does have lots of water in hilly country, which is very useful for watermills and the like. Given that much of early industrial textile production was based on water power, this might be an opportunity – for example, with an expanded Venetian sericulture and silk textile industry.

Given the situation in Venice, any industrial revolution won’t look much like the historical Industrial Revolution – either of them. There were two industrial revolutions, broadly speaking. The big, heavy industry and industrial machinery kind (think coal and steel), and the small, fine detail, mass production, light industry kind (think textiles). There was some cross-pollination between the two, of course, but after looking into this area, my belief is that you could get a kind of industrial revolution (obviously not entirely like OTL) by having just one or the other be developed.

What’s missing, and what I’m still trying to figure out, is some sort of “kick-start” application for early industrialisation, either steam or textiles, to get things started. If that’s viable in itself, further ideas and technologies can develop from there, accelerating the tech curve a bit. Even in OTL, there were some Renaissance experiments with the aeolipile, so better steam technology is not completely out of the question. The Venetian metallurgy is not up to seventeenth century standards, so an immediate equivalent of, say, the Newcomen steam engine may not be doable, but could something else be done with steam? (East Meets West went with a steam cannon, but I don’t want to duplicate something developed elsewhere.) The alternative might be textiles, of course, if a kicker for the Venetian silk industry can be found.

So, does anyone have any thoughts on what a Venetian Industrial Revolution might look like? There’s a lot of potential if things can get started. Imagine what would happen if Leonardo da Vinci and Galileo might get up to in a proto-industrialised Venice.

I will ponder this. My initial thoughts were indeed textile and hydropower related. I'm skeptical of especially early steam-engine scenarios. Perhaps it might be possible to shave off a few decades from OTL.
Metallurgy advances are a big key. Maybe at some point at the end of the 16th C. someone in the Republic has the bright idea of incorporating metal as partial or full armoring of their warships, inspired by stories of "turtleships" of the distant East. A demand for larger amounts of iron is created...

Not very easy for a number of reasons:
- lack of both iron and coal mines is certainly a fairly major obstacle, as others have pointed out
- Venice-the-City was (and is) not really suitable for large industrial establishments. Actually there were some "high technology" industries: the Arsenal, first and foremost, but also glass industry, high-end textiles and printing. They are potentially the first stepping stone for an industrial revolution, but not enough of themselves given the lack of raw materials. There were also proto-industrial centers in the hinterland: Vicenza and its countryside, where water power is abundant, for textile industry, and Treviso for metalworking and bronze casting (the great bombard La Trevisana which was used in the late 14th century war of Chioggia was so named because it had been cast in Treviso). Treviso had no major problem in receiving iron ores from Austria but the lack of coal was a major bottleneck: iron casting and forging requires coal, charcoal will eat up the forests in a whiff.
- Venice does not enjoy the same degree of physical separation from the mainland that England enjoys: or putting it in a better way, the city of Venice is relatively safe, at least as long as the Venetian navy dominates the Adriatic; Italian mainland and the Stato de Mar are not. Consider also that Venice has been fighting (defensively and offensively) against a large number of enemies, practically forever: this takes quite a big toll on the Republic's resources and ultimately sapped the willpower of the republic (in the 18th century Venice was a spent force, but IMHO the death of the republic could be anticipated when in the early 17th century the majority of the goods transiting through Venice were transported by Dutch and English ships, not Venetian ones). The trend started even earlier on, when Venetian patricians started to invest capital in mainland estates rather than plowing it back in commerce. One might even say that the original sin goes back to the "closure" of the Senate and the magistracies: the political structure of the republic became too rigid and upward mobility became curtailed (and another major issue was the rigidity in excluding non-Venetians from political power).

The answer to the OP may be to keep up an entrepreneurial spirit, concentrate on commerce (as in owning bottoms, not just hiring them) and putting a better emphasis on the existing high-end industries. Obviously some solution to the political issues has be to found and implemented.
Maybe if Venice keeps a lower profile in Italy at the end of the 15th century the Serenissima can avoid getting embroiled in the war of the League of Cambrai and can better concentrate on their real issues: Ottomans and Portuguese. In the end this means having ships in the Indian Ocean and contesting the spice trade: it also mean that Venetian policy must be centered on Egypt and India (which they tried to do, but more as a side show than highest priority). No guarantee it would fly, but it would be at least a noble try.

LordKalvan said:

Maybe if Venice keeps a lower profile in Italy at the end of the 15th century the Serenissima can avoid getting embroiled in the war of the League of Cambrai and can better concentrate on their real issues: Ottomans and Portuguese. In the end this means having ships in the Indian Ocean and contesting the spice trade: it also mean that Venetian policy must be centered on Egypt and India (which they tried to do, but more as a side show than highest priority). No guarantee it would fly, but it would be at least a noble try.

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Something that is the basis of another TL on this board, the one by Franciscus Caesar, "La Serenissima: Dawn of a Great Power".
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=288436&highlight=Serenissima

Very hard for Venice not to get embroiled in Italian terrestrial politics, though. A stronger Milano (say: if Gian Galeazzo left a more enduring legacy) might conceivably turn Venetian attention elsewhere if they could arrive at a live-and-let-live understanding.

There may have been some exploitable coal in the Carnic and Slovenian Pre-alps region, straddling what is now Italy and Slovenia, N. of Trieste. Although I can't find any information that really pertains to it, especially historically. Otherwise, the closest historically exploited coal to Venetian holdings would be in Serbia and France (Southern beds in Savoy region). Politics could mean trouble assessing these resources at various times in Venetian history.

edit: just found this:

Until the middle of the last century, both Cjargne/Carnia and Cjanâl dal Fier/Canal del Ferro supplied coal that was mainly used in the metallurgical industry.The mines were in Cludini/Cludinico, on the left bank of the Dean/ Degano river, and in the area north of Pontebe/Pontebba.

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This is referring to the Friuli pre-alps region and this info comes from a school workbook from the CONSORZIO UNIVERSITARIO DEL FRIULI.
http://www.linguefvg.it/file/MONT QUADERNO GB.pdf
So, coal problem not utterly hopeless?

I also recall reading that after the 1550s, the Venetian elite became much more Italian in the sense of getting the idea that it was good and proper for an elite to live off landed properties, and taking a direct rule in trade started to be shunned by the elite. Instead of the merchant elite of the 1300s and 1400s, you start to have the indebted and landbound values of a more typical European elite. Seems like that has to be nipped in the bud early.

13 legends.....

Could not Venice supply the capital to kick start industrialisation where the resources were available? A sort of Medieval outsourcing.
I read where the gentry settled on the mainland and started to neglect the merchantile side of things. If instead their time and effort could have gone into other fields of capital adventure with different results.

Definitely following this thread.

Do you still have a link to the soc.history.what-if threads?

jkarr said:

13 legends.....

Click to expand...

It's a fun little web graphic novel. Very ASB, though.

http://13legends.com/volume01.php?id=1

Before say the 17th C., the place Venice needs to access for advanced metallurgy tech is East, particularly China. Ming China had a massive revival of technological progress after the Yuan period, reviving a lot of Song innovations. Either through direct contact or some kind of POD that brings Chinese technologists westwards, perhaps through enslavement (capture by Steppe Nomads, resold eventually to Ottoman client, etc.). Just thinking out loud.

Ultimately, one needs a conjunction of perceived need, the tech prowess, the raw materials, and the financing and patronage to get things kick-started.


Another way to get an industrial revolution kicking in Venice is if you can keep it relevant and powerful later than it did, so it could ride the coattails of an Industrial Revolution that has sprung up elsewhere similarly to the time and place of the OTL. This might very well be more plausible than trying to create a POD where Venice is the spark of the IR, particularly one that occurs at an earlier date.

Could the Ottomans not have used middle eastern oil and coal from the Balkans and iron deposits from Algeria, Syria or Turkey to start their own industrial age? The Rise of them would have been a sharp incentive for the Venicians to quickly follow suite. Imagine Iron clad galleys fighting for control of the Med.

Herzen's love-child said:

Something that is the basis of another TL on this board, the one by Franciscus Caesar, "La Serenissima: Dawn of a Great Power".
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=288436&highlight=Serenissima

Very hard for Venice not to get embroiled in Italian terrestrial politics, though. A stronger Milano (say: if Gian Galeazzo left a more enduring legacy) might conceivably turn Venetian attention elsewhere if they could arrive at a live-and-let-live understanding.

There may have been some exploitable coal in the Carnic and Slovenian Pre-alps region, straddling what is now Italy and Slovenia, N. of Trieste. Although I can't find any information that really pertains to it, especially historically. Otherwise, the closest historically exploited coal to Venetian holdings would be in Serbia and France (Southern beds in Savoy region). Politics could mean trouble assessing these resources at various times in Venetian history.

edit: just found this:
This is referring to the Friuli pre-alps region and this info comes from a school workbook from the CONSORZIO UNIVERSITARIO DEL FRIULI.
http://www.linguefvg.it/file/MONT QUADERNO GB.pdf
So, coal problem not utterly hopeless?

Click to expand...

Sorry, but the coal mines of Cludinico (N-W of Udine) did not produce a coal suitable for metallurgical use (very low calorific value and high sulphur content). The same is true for the brown coal mines near Sarajevo. Cludinico mines were at best a very marginal venture and were active only in the 19th century (the coal was not even suitable for railway use). The Fascist regime re-opened the mines in the 1930s, in its drive for autarchy, but it was not worth the effort.
Compare this drab picture with the rich coal and iron deposits of Coalbrookdale, where one can find good coking coal, iron ore and fine clay (used as lining of the furnaces) in the same strata with good access to abundant waterpower too and possibility to transport pig iron or wrought iron easily to the sea. It's not a surprise that the Industrial Revolution took off there.

There is however a chance: Venice does not need hundreds of thousand of tons of wrought iron from the start. They can start more slowly, concentrating on the production of guns and arquebuses (for which there would be both a keen interest of the Signoria as well as a ready pool of skilled artisans (as well as a ready availability of waterpower). I would even suggest to split the production in two centers: Treviso (cast iron and cast bronze guns, the latter are still the best for naval use) and Udine/Palmanova for arquebuses and pistols (Treviso is pretty close to Venice, while the Tagliamento river can be used to deliver finished goods. The technology for blast furnace (using charcoal) is already available in Europe, since it was developed in Wallonia during the second half of the 15th century and soon exported to England (the Venetian representatives in Antwerp should be aware of this development). Production of coke from coal was patented in England at the end of the 16th century (but probably was in use even before), and again should be accessible. However it's worth noting that both the production of coke and the production of pig iron and wrought iron in blast furnace (where the bellows were driven by water power) was known in China since the 11th century (there are claims that Kaifeng foundries as well as the other ones located in Northern China were producing in excess of 100,000 tons of wrought iron per year - then natural disasters, environmental issues, imperial distrust of the raise of an entrepreneur class and most of all the Jurgen invasions put paid to this proto-industrial revolution). Chinese sources document these achievements, though. If one of this chronicles finds somehow its way to Venice....

The political issue however may be to harder to solve. IMHO I would suggest three possible PODs which would take place later than the death of Gian Galeazzo:

• The battle of Negroponte in 1470: the Ottomans led by Mehmet II landed on Negroponte and put the citadel under siege. A relief fleet was sent by Venice, and was successful in dispersing the Ottoman fleet. At this stage the Ottoman army had a single way of communication with mainland Greece, a pontoon bridge. The tide and the wind favoured the Venetian and a large round ship was poised to run against the pontoon bridge and smash it. If successful, the Ottoman army (and the Sultan) would be stranded on an island without way of escape, but the Venetian commander (Nicolo Canal) a man of letters rather than of deeds, hesitated and ultimately retired. If the pontoon bridge had been destroyed, the Ottomans would have not captured Negroponte, and the death of the sultan would precipitate a civil war.II
• Battle of Zonchio, 1499: an Ottoman fleet under Kemal Reis was travelling along the Greek coast toward Lepanto, bringing the siege guns to invest the Venetian citadel. They were shadowed by a Venetian fleet under Antonio Grimani. He was a patrician, an outstanding merchant and financier (his nickname was Dito de Oro, which would translate as Goldfinger, because the Venetian swore that he trasmuted in gold everything he touched) and was the front runner for the coming dogal election at the death of the old and ailing doge. He was not an outstanding admiral, though. Ultimately Andrea Loredan (scion of a family of political opponents of Grimani) sailed his round ship to attack and board the largest Ottoman round ship. Grimani did not order his galleys to follow up the attack, even after both round ships were destroyed by a fire. The Ottoman fleet reached Lepanto and the city was taken. Grimani had to answer the Venetian senate on his lack of initiative, was close to be condemned to death but in the end he was just exiled and pardoned in 1509(and in 1521 surprisingly was elected doge). If he had attacked, the Ottoman fleet would be almost certainly defeated and Lepanto would not have fallen). Grimani would be elected doge in 1501 and he would probably better manage the Italian affairs which ended up in the wars of the League of Cambrai (he was certainly against a further expansion in mainland Italy).
• I put the earliest POD as last, because it is the most difficult to achieve: in 1447, upon the death of Filippo Maria Visconti, the Milanese proclaimed the Ambrosian republic. I believe it would have been in Venice interest to support the republic and ensure a sympathetic ally on her westward border. However the expansionist party was dominant in Venice, and the lure of gaining all the Visconti possessions was too much. In 1450 finally Venice offered to Milan peace and an alliance, but it was too late. The Milanese refused and Francesco Sforza became duke of Milan. Venice territory increased but I believe it would have been more productive to ensure a Milanese alliance.

Fairdowner said:

Could the Ottomans not have used middle eastern oil and coal from the Balkans and iron deposits from Algeria, Syria or Turkey to start their own industrial age? The Rise of them would have been a sharp incentive for the Venicians to quickly follow suite. Imagine Iron clad galleys fighting for control of the Med.

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Oil is no good (and in any case the technology for extraction was not there).
Balkan or Turkish coals is not suitable for coking process. Iron is not really a problem.

Fairdowner said:

Could not Venice supply the capital to kick start industrialisation where the resources were available? A sort of Medieval outsourcing.
I read where the gentry settled on the mainland and started to neglect the merchantile side of things. If instead their time and effort could have gone into other fields of capital adventure with different results.

Click to expand...

That might be possible. I would believe that it would not go to finished products but jus up to first refining of the ore (e.g. production of pig iron at Coalbrookdale and then transporting the sows to Venice for the final stages of production).

Herzen's love-child said:

Before say the 17th C., the place Venice needs to access for advanced metallurgy tech is East, particularly China. Ming China had a massive revival of technological progress after the Yuan period, reviving a lot of Song innovations. Either through direct contact or some kind of POD that brings Chinese technologists westwards, perhaps through enslavement (capture by Steppe Nomads, resold eventually to Ottoman client, etc.). Just thinking out loud.

Ultimately, one needs a conjunction of perceived need, the tech prowess, the raw materials, and the financing and patronage to get things kick-started.


Another way to get an industrial revolution kicking in Venice is if you can keep it relevant and powerful later than it did, so it could ride the coattails of an Industrial Revolution that has sprung up elsewhere similarly to the time and place of the OTL. This might very well be more plausible than trying to create a POD where Venice is the spark of the IR, particularly one that occurs at an earlier date.

Click to expand...

If we want to trust wikipedia, Wang Zhen wrote the Nong Shu, a treatise on iron smelting, in 1313. It might reach Europe through Arab merchants or Christian missionaries (it might even be sent to Rome or Venice: 1313 is just 20 years after Marco Polo left China, according to tradition. Then the manuscript is re-discovered during Renaissance)

LordK, this source would indicate that the coal from the Cludinico mines produced coke of fair quality. More problematic are the mines not beginning to be exploited until rather late-- latter 19th C. They were pretty heavily exploited leaving 150 km of tunnels behind.
http://books.google.com/books?id=3c...a=X&ei=V3n8UsGFH4rZoAS0lYCADw&ved=0CDIQ6AEwBg
But yes, compared to the coalfields in N. Europe and Britain, rather pathetic.

I see the relevance of the last of your 3 PODs but the first 2 seem less clear to me in terms of relevance to the needs of the OP.

I believe that Treviso OTL did have a cannon foundry.

LordKalvan said:

If we want to trust wikipedia, Wang Zhen wrote the Nong Shu, a treatise on iron smelting, in 1313. It might reach Europe through Arab merchants or Christian missionaries (it might even be sent to Rome or Venice: 1313 is just 20 years after Marco Polo left China, according to tradition. Then the manuscript is re-discovered during Renaissance)

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Not that I totally trust Wiki but this was some of the specific tech I was thinking of. Luckily, there are other sources that verify the Wiki article particulars.

Herzen's love-child said:

LordK, this source would indicate that the coal from the Cludinico mines produced coke of fair quality. More problematic are the mines not beginning to be exploited until rather late-- latter 19th C. They were pretty heavily exploited leaving 150 km of tunnels behind.
http://books.google.com/books?id=3c...a=X&ei=V3n8UsGFH4rZoAS0lYCADw&ved=0CDIQ6AEwBg

I see the relevance of the last of your 3 PODs but the first 2 seem less clear to me in terms of relevance to the needs of the OP.

I believe that Treviso OTL did have a cannon foundry.

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I've accessed the official geophysical site of Friuli (in Italian) http://www.geoscienze.units.it/geositi/vedigeo1.php?ID_GEO=561

and my comment is taken from there. Additionally it states that coal seams were pretty variable in thickness (from 10 cm to 4 mt) and that the mine was operated at intervals in the 19th century (1810-1820, 1855-65, 1873-1900 nut not continuously). Production started again in 1939 (guess why) and definitively ceased in 1956. Anyway 7000 kCal is not a great heating value.

As far as the 3 PODs I suggested, the last one is certainly the best: a "perpetual alliance" between Venice and Milan would be an agricultural and economic power. The problem is to hammer out a honest deal between them.

The battle of Negroponte would stop the Ottoman drive in the Egean as it started, weaken considerably them and avoid 20 years of continuous war. Venice could concentrate on the wooing of the Mameluks, and possibly start to penetrate in the Indian ocean.

The battle of Zonchio would ensure a better doge for Venice (and one that would rule until 1523 if nothing unexpected happens). Possibly butterfly away the war of the league of Cambrai and certainly weaken the mainland expansion party. It would again give to Venice a breathing space to concentrate seriously on Egypt (keeping the Ottomans out) and to deal in earnest with the Portuguese interlopers in India (maybe the alliance with Persia would go through this time).

In either case Venice would keep their merchantilistic approach and investing huge capitals on setting up estates on the mainland would be less attractive. If Goldfinger is true to his name, there will be a boom in Venice and the accumulation of venture capital may bring unexpected bonuses. IOTL Venice (thru Bartolomeo d'Aviano) tried to reform the army, relying not only on new arms but also rediscovering thru. humanists the organizational strengths of Roman armies. IOTL there was no time for this experiment to succeed. ITTL who knows?
Another point to make is that the conflagration that enveloped the 2 round ships at Zonchio had the side effect to make both Ottomans and Venetians quite distrustful of sailing ships (notwithstanding their better performance as gunnery platforms and the less intensive use of manpower). The sooner Venice breaks out of the galley mindset the better.

Herzen's love-child said:

It's a fun little web graphic novel. Very ASB, though.

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I know what it is, why i said it x3

You need capital, and after the opening of the sea trade routes through the Portuguese this was a declining commodity in Venice. They were however offered a piece of this action, warehouses in Lisbon etc, and declined due to worrying about pissing off the Egyptian side of their own declining operations.

IMHO trade is the driving force for industrialisation, so Venice needs to continue to be able to exploit growing markets, not be forced into defending its position in shrinking markets.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf