1960s in a timeline without world wars.

We said that in this timeline WW-I is avoid.
Franz Joseph die of pneumonia in 1912,Franz Ferdinand is the new emperor.
No trip in Sarajevo,June 28, 1914 is not a day to remember.
Gavrilo Princip dies unknown in old age.
Franz Ferdinand change the Empire in a federation,a Hungarian rebellion is suppress.
In late 10s great powers reach an good agreement,there a Anglo-German rapprochement.
In subsequent fortyfive years are some crisis,but none great European war or world war.
Tzarist Empire survive with some structural change,and same Ottoman Empire.
No communism,fascism or nazism.

In a timeline like this realistically as are the 1960s?
Technologically as in OTL,or less or more advanced?
Music and fashion as in 60s OTL are possible?

Technology will vary on a field-by-field basis. Our experiences in the wars made possible significant advances in aeronautics, medicine (especially surgery), electronics, nuclear technology, rocketry, mass production, and material science. There were a great many university students lost in World War I and the Haber process was already having an impact on certain priorities. Without the economic bubble there is likely no Depression also, so economics might be wildly different or much more pre-Keynesian in this case. Recording technology and magnetic tapes might take much longer to come around so LPs would dominate as they did in the 1960s, but transistors might not be around yet (or introduced 20 years earlier via the Russians?).

Russia probably never goes Communist and might in fact be a monarchy at that time, it will also command a significant lead in many scientific areas but remain far less industrialized. Russia will also have a much larger Jewish population and Israel probably dies not exist, but then nor would many of the Middle Eastern nations as we know them. Communists would still be viewed as radicals and global socialism will still exist though social progress will be retarded significantly without the experiences of women working the jobs the men leave behind and the minorities participating in a war for a society that frankly neglects them at best. Much of the United States will be significantly less developed and more agricultural, especially in the South and West Coast. Europe will remain the hub of technology and power with Japan rising and China probably akin to the United States though possibly a shattered confederacy of warlord states. Colonialism is less developed as Europe still looks as strong as ever, so there might be 50 countries around the world instead of 200. English is a major trade language, but so is German, French, Spanish, Chinese, Russian, and Arabic. Germany is likely still a leader in medicine and biology as well as chemistry and physics. There will be fewer social safety nets, more religious conservatism, a more divided United States, and probably a lot less material comfort for the average person even in the "first world" countries.

I would expect a brushfire war or two, perhaps Italy assaulting Ethiopea or Japan fighting China, but a world where the last global conflict would have been in the Napoleonic era would be a very different place. Fashion would be hard to predict but music is probably much more conservative, maybe swing music fuses with elements of gospel and jazz to create a very lively form of dance. Alternatively too a lot of the people who died in the First World War might make truly monumental discoveries, it would be difficult to ascertain exactly who might take what how far. Synthetics will still likely emerge, especially as Waldo Semon and others would already be working, and anything commercially driven would still advance. Workplace safety rules would be behind as organized labor might look Marxist. Frankly it would not be a world I would want to visit for very long...

As long as Russia does not experience a boom and bust (since a lot of its expansion was built on foreign loans) it could very well be a major industrial power on a modern (if shaky) footing by the 1960s

You also have to look at where the oil is - do the Ottomans control a lot, the Italians, the British etc. With the Middle East either still ruled by these powers, or in their sphere of interest, Arab Oil may well be an exploitable resource. In this, US and German companies are also going to be involved - think of the Berlin to Baghdad Railway as a start to German involvement in this area.

Britain will have avoided the financial disaster of WW1 and tho a lot of its industry was smallscale compared to the US (because it started earlier and modernisation was difficult) it would still be a major producer. The Empire will likely be intact, the aim being to continue to calve off dominions - if India gets dominion status (not certain in a world without WW1) it might give impetus to the idea of other non-white dominions. As for white ruled dominions, Rhodesia looks like a good bet.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

i wonder if Russia and Ottoman Empire survive in no World War TL ?
in Russia was on edge of Political collapse, the Ottoman Empire almost bankrupt.
also Austria-Hungary Empire had similar problem but were on peaceful solution either dissolution of empire or transformation into Habsburger federation

But let focus on Russia, would communist rise after a revolution (and with little help by German Empire) ?
or become tsar russia a democracy ?

This can have far reaching consequence for the future, the rise of communism and resulting wars

Any chance for Beatles,Stones or similiar?

lounge60 said:

Any chance for Beatles,Stones or similiar?

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It is completely impossible to tell. A POD in 1912, especially one that avoids WWI, could butterfly away the Jazz Age, let alone Rock'n'Roll. The Beatles and Stones themselves wouldn't be born, and a great many of their musical and cultural influences would never come into existent.

So really, while it's not impossible for these 1960s to feature a band playing fast-paced, guitar and percussion-driven music that young people like to dance to, it's a lot more likely that something we would not even recognise would be in existence.

Without the two wars, I would say the world would enter a sixties-level of consumer technology in the late forties and hang there through the actual sixties. The lack of war-induced technology would be offset by the human and physical resources that were not destroyed. Different aspects of technology would advance at different rates. My take is that entertainment technology would take more of a leading role. With Europe remaining strong through the twenties, the American recession (inevitable as railroads had penetrated the country and stopped expanding) would not emerge into a Great Depression. By 1929, movies with sound were changing the entertainment industry and two years later they would drive silent pictures and traveling Vaudeville shows into near extinction. The Farnsworth picture tube was patented in 1929, and in a healthier economy, would have brought the growth of television much sooner.

In the thirties, German inventors came up with magnetic tape recording as an alternative to Edison. Tape recorders, though, were not known outside of that country until allies seized the machines in reverse-engineered them after WWII. They entered broadcasting in 1948 and by the mid-fifties had revolutionized music recording, allowing LP records to become practical because different tracks could be recorded in different sessions. The Germans also developed the transistor in the thirties, but were deemed too unreliable for the demands of military use. These developments could find earlier, less-demanding domestic applications. I can envision elements of the OTL fifties showing up in the late thirties. As for music, the original players of the sixties are not there, but the technology that brought the music would be. We would likely skip the “jazz age” without the Depression that made big bands affordable.

Europe and Britain don’t get blown apart in war. The US and Canada don’t have to devote the first half of the forties to war production and the second half to catching up with world demand as the primary source of state-of-the art goods. As manufacturing spreads through the developed world, concern over pollution also follows, only sooner.

Many of the abrupt cultural changes we associate with the sixties would be spread between the new fifties and sixties. The civil rights movement and legislation in the sixties was the direct result of a growing consumer economy that denied participation to people on account of race. Television made the differences painfully obvious on a daily basis. Earlier development, earlier civil rights. Rocket science might remain a thoroughly German pursuit for some time if there is no Cold War.

Meadow said:

It is completely impossible to tell. A POD in 1912, especially one that avoids WWI, could butterfly away the Jazz Age, let alone Rock'n'Roll. The Beatles and Stones themselves wouldn't be born, and a great many of their musical and cultural influences would never come into existent.

So really, while it's not impossible for these 1960s to feature a band playing fast-paced, guitar and percussion-driven music that young people like to dance to, it's a lot more likely that something we would not even recognise would be in existence.

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Why Jazz should be butterfly by no WW-I ?
Is an American popular music,and was also in 1910s in form of ragtime and dixiland.
I not see change in consequence of lack of war.
And i not think that peoples in Europe can dance valtzer forever.

Mark E. said:

We would likely skip the “jazz age” without the Depression that made big bands affordable.

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Jazz age was in 20s,maybe we would skip "swing age".

What exactly does the OP imply, not this WWI or no world war at all?

IMHO that's a huge difference. The former merely requires putting a brain in Franz-Joseph's OR Wilhelm's head, but I see no way for the latter without ASBs. Europe was sitting on a powder keg playing with fire. There HAD to be a major exchange before they start to realize that war is bad. IOTL, even one world war wasn't enough.

lounge60 said:

Jazz age was in 20s,maybe we would skip "swing age".

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You're right. I realized the difference after I made the post.

I don’t see large changes for the United States in the twenties. The US was isolationist at the time and WWI did not tax its resources completely. I see the roaring twenties moving as they did in OTL. The big differences will be the resources of Germany with a healthy economy. Hopefully, a healthy world economy can butterfly away the American Great Depression, or most of it. I would like to see good from a German engineering and industrial community that does not build so much for war. Maybe a Jewish German scientist invents the microchip well ahead of OTL.

Perkeo said:

What exactly does the OP imply, not this WWI or no world war at all?

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No world war at all.

The idea is to butterfly away the world wars and look at the ATL future, particularly the sixties. Lounge60 started with details and we might imagine some other major changes, like the Titanic not sinking and an important passenger becoming politically important.

We can briefly walk through the twenties and see an America not greatly different; but a Europe, undamaged, moving forward. The thirties see a Germany (and Europe in general) adding to a general technological base. Entertainment, as a lame user of technology can advance more aggressively. The forties see a continuation.

But we must look at some of the cultural issues. In OTL 1950, a substantial number of American women did not know the details of sexual intercourse until their wedding nights. That is how repressed society was.

I see no reason why welfare states would be much lower. Many welfare state reforms were pushed through in the pre-WWI era, often by the countries that lost the war. However, I do think it could take on a much more eugenic tone if WWII doesn't discredit the idea (wildly popular in London until then).

Much of social change was the result of cheap and easily available contraceptives. That isn't going to change. Religious attitudes are still going to be affected by technological change.

It's true that colonialism, monarchy, and more restrictive voting may be a bit more popular, but its not like these things weren't already on the way out before the wars.

I think the topic should not be thought of so much as 1960s; I think that corrupts the thought process a bit. Rather, I think it would be better thought of as what the world could be like a half century after there is no World War (nor anything subsequent). 1960s would just be a number. There really would be little or no resemblance to the OTL 1960s.

And the answer is really that there are infinite possibilities. There's certain realisms and unrealisms, but there's really a lot of possibilities and a lot of directions history can go, and all of them are valid.

Basically all the international conventions, pacts, resolutions, etc., dealing with human rights were a direct result of WWII. So I don`t think the 60`s era "social changes" are as unavoidable as people have previousely stated.

lounge60 said:

Why Jazz should be butterfly by no WW-I ?
Is an American popular music,and was also in 1910s in form of ragtime and dixiland.
I not see change in consequence of lack of war.
And i not think that peoples in Europe can dance valtzer forever.

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It's obvious you want to railroad this discussion into endorsing a TL where the Beatles exist in a world without WWI.

Sure, go ahead.

machine3589 said:

Basically all the international conventions, pacts, resolutions, etc., dealing with human rights were a direct result of WWII. So I don`t think the 60`s era "social changes" are as unavoidable as people have previousely stated.

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in germany the workers movement before ww1 was stronger than ever after.

lacking the soviets as a boogeyman leftism might get even more popular.

anotherlurker said:

in germany the workers movement before ww1 was stronger than ever after.

lacking the soviets as a boogeyman leftism might get even more popular.

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So? Worker`s rights are a specific form of rights reserved for workers (in most cases pre-WW2, they didn`t even touch on equal terms of employment). They don`t leed to the "universal rights for every human" category.

We see an early rise of airlines in the mid 10s instead of the early 20s (based off Igor Sikorsky's Ilya Muromets's).

On the social side, Italy, Germany and Russia retain their royalties, and Austro-Hungaria survives, so Europe is basically a patchwork of monarchist and imperial states, with just a handful of republics.