AHC: Russo-Turkish rapprochement in the 1800's
- Thread starter Ellie
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This is a difficult challenge. There is great deal of bad blood between these two nations. Even ignoring history, the Ottomans posses a great deal of land that Russia very badly wants, and not just for reasons of prestige. As long as a foreign power controls the Straits, Russia cannot project power into the Mediterranean.
The Ottomans are aware of this, and thus look very warily to the north.
The only thing that could put a lid on this animosity would be the restraining influence of an ally. If Russia found itself entirely dependent on say, Great Britain or France, and either country was allied to the Ottoman empire, relations would probably improve between Russia and the Ottomans.
Of course this would not be a stable state of affairs. The Ottomans would be a costly ally to maintain, and as Russia grew more powerful, it would chafe at any restrictions on pursuing its "natural borders" and demand concessions in other areas to compensate.
That is REALLY a though call.
You'd need a world-shattering change, such as major revolution in a Great Power.
Of course, the "easy" way is that Austria somehow becomes such a common threat that it forces a rapprochement, but this is problematic with a post Crimean War POD.
Tentative scenario: Austria wins big in the Austro-Prussian war. This is followed by revolution in Prussia, Austria moves in to enforce reaction, further mess leads to French intervention, Austria rallies Germans and creates big-ass Ubergrossdeutschland defeating the French heavily.
Suddenly there's a gigantic expansionist radical-conservative blob in the middle of Europe throwing greedy looks all around and both Russia and Turkey feel threatened.
Yep, damn unlikely.
You'd need a world-shattering change, such as major revolution in a Great Power.
Of course, the "easy" way is that Austria somehow becomes such a common threat that it forces a rapprochement, but this is problematic with a post Crimean War POD.
Tentative scenario: Austria wins big in the Austro-Prussian war. This is followed by revolution in Prussia, Austria moves in to enforce reaction, further mess leads to French intervention, Austria rallies Germans and creates big-ass Ubergrossdeutschland defeating the French heavily.
Suddenly there's a gigantic expansionist radical-conservative blob in the middle of Europe throwing greedy looks all around and both Russia and Turkey feel threatened.
Yep, damn unlikely.
Would it really be that tough?
The Treaty of Hunkar Iskelesi in 1833 basically made the OE a semi-vassal of Russia, and the main reason for this was because Britain and France refused the Sultan's request for assistance against Mehmet Ali of Egypt.
I would think that if Britain and France explicitly told the Sultan that they were going to abandon him (maybe due to some resurgence of Hellenophilia, or maybe because they really really want Egypt) the Sultan would have little choice but to align himself with Russia and sign another Hunkar Iskelesi. Realpolitik and all that.
Probably would have even preserved the Ottomans in the long run because I can't see Russia wanting to dismantle an Ottoman Empire that was aligned with it.
The Treaty of Hunkar Iskelesi in 1833 basically made the OE a semi-vassal of Russia, and the main reason for this was because Britain and France refused the Sultan's request for assistance against Mehmet Ali of Egypt.
I would think that if Britain and France explicitly told the Sultan that they were going to abandon him (maybe due to some resurgence of Hellenophilia, or maybe because they really really want Egypt) the Sultan would have little choice but to align himself with Russia and sign another Hunkar Iskelesi. Realpolitik and all that.
Probably would have even preserved the Ottomans in the long run because I can't see Russia wanting to dismantle an Ottoman Empire that was aligned with it.
maybe if austria-hungary rises as much and as fast as germany did. a population boom worth 20 million in 15 years, mass industrialisation, world class education and sciences and so on.
the russians would need another ally as france is simply not big enough for 2 very dangerous possible enemies.
the russians would need another ally as france is simply not big enough for 2 very dangerous possible enemies.
Yes.
The consistent goal of British foreign policy throughout most of the 19th century was to prevent Russia from acquiring the Turkish Straits; the consistent goal of the Russian Empire's foreign policy throughout most of the 19th century and until the end of its existence was to acquire the Turkish Straits. France, until the Crimean War, was on the same side as Britain in this regard; when France lost the Franco-Prussian War, the British Prime Minister's greatest concern was that France would no longer be able to help Britain to contain Russia. The Ottoman Empire was a consistent ally of Britain until the early twentieth century, when Britain, mostly because of paranoia about Germany (though this is a disputed topic), cut it loose.
I do not suggest that Britain will stay so friendly with the Ottomans out of sentiment, but rather out of national interests; it is in Britain's interest to keep Russia's expansion contained because Russia is the single greatest threat to Britain's Far Eastern possessions in the 19th century, and the power of the Russian Empire was grossly overestimated in the late 19th and early 20th century so the British saw an even larger threat than the still-major one which existed.
I cannot think of anything that could possibly make Britain turn fully against the Ottoman Empire. Even if Britain was eager to take Egypt and Greece and the entirety of the Balkans, it would still be preferable (in the Ottomans' eyes) to Russia, which saw the Ottoman Empire as a natural area of expansion, aimed to take the Ottomans' most valuable territory and sought to turn the Ottomans' very capital, Constantinople/Istanbul, into a Russian city.
I can. As soon as the Ottomans had outlived their usefulness (in this hypothetical Russo-Ottoman alliance) they would be doomed. Even in the scenario that you have described, the Russians would only be allies of convenience to the Ottomans; once the Anglo-French threat was ended the Ottomans would be on the Tsar's menu.
And this scenario is unlikely, because Britain is unlikely to discard its allegiance to the Ottomans unless it thinks that the Ottomans are becoming a puppet of one of Britain's powerful rivals… in which case the Ottomans will have another powerful ally (IOTL, Imperial Germany) to protect them from Russia.
A Russo-Ottoman alliance is actually less realistic than an Austro-Russian alliance or a Franco-Prussian alliance; either of those could have occurred had history gone slightly differently in the 19th century, but any permanent Russo-Ottoman alliance (as opposed to the alliance of convenience described above) would require a completely different development of Russia's self-image and policy goals, long before that time.
As for the Habsburgs, see my comment above about Britain; it applies equally well here. Even if the Habsburgs wanted to turn all the Balkans, including Greece, into their puppets, they would still be a more attractive option to the Ottomans than Russia would be.