AHC:Simultaneous Korean and Japanese expansion

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
So this is a challenge and a related question-

Could Korea and Japan have launched into large scale expansion without finishing the other one off first? In OTL, Korea never expanded beyond its peninsula politically, and in its OTL historic bids to expand, Japan started in Korea. When they failed in Korea they quit. When they succeeded 300 years later they went after additional targets subsequently.

Could we have plausibly had a situation in the last two-thousand years where both expand simultaneously. This could come in any flavor you'd like. The first that comes to mind is the Atlantic model - the European Atlantic states England, Netherlands, France, Spain, Portugal, checked their ability to take over each other, but managed at the same time to acquire vast overseas territories. The other model is splitting the land and sea domains, wherein Japan expands mostly to the south to additional island or overseas territories, and Korea ends up expanding on the Asian mainland, ruling Manchuria, at least invading China and Russia, and possibly succeeding in holding expanded realm there for several decades.
 
Have Korea be unified by Koguryo or successor states thereof, and have it survive the coming of the steppe peoples intact. Do that and Korea will have a relatively culturally homogeneous population from the Korean peninsula and the Manchurian plains. Such a state could avoid the under-population & lack of commerce problem that Korea faced due to having a predominantly mountainous terrain, and thus be much stronger than OTL Korea. This could possibly lead to proportionately larger continental ambitions.

For Japan the Tokugawa Shogunate could be butterflied away, with Japan eventually coming under the sway of one of the western clans, say the Shimazu for example. Such a Japan would be much more open to trade and contact with overseas polities, and could possibly have their historic ambitions tied up with the Philippines & the Spice Islands, rather than Korea & China.
 
So this is a challenge and a related question-

Could Korea and Japan have launched into large scale expansion without finishing the other one off first? In OTL, Korea never expanded beyond its peninsula politically, and in its OTL historic bids to expand, Japan started in Korea. When they failed in Korea they quit. When they succeeded 300 years later they went after additional targets subsequently.

Southern Manchuria was part of Korea proper (both culturally and politically) for at least two millennia until 926, when Balhae collapsed due to a catastrophic eruption on Baekdu Mountain. Goryeo also ventured into Manchuria and even managed to briefly hold Liaodong and some portions of Southern Manchuria during the 14th century after refugees flooded in. However, no Korean state ever engaged in extensive wars of expansion into "foreign" territory, as doing so would have been suicidal after depleting its resources, not to mention confronting much larger empires within China and Central Asia. Goguryeo and Goryeo were the only exceptions, both of which directly confronted China, although they collapsed within a few decades, as a succession dispute tore the former apart, while Yi Seong-gye decided to stage a coup against Goryeo and found Joseon after disobeying the order to invade the Ming. In any case, neither ventured far past their possessions at the time because cooler heads eventually prevailed, and the succeeding dynasties eventually agreed to pay tribute to China, although Silla temporarily suspended relations with the Tang for 50 years due to the Silla-Tang War that broke out soon after Goguryeo's collapse.

However, the only Korean state that could have managed to retain Manchuria permanently was Goguryeo, which failed to unify the peninsula for over 300 years due to the Baekje-Silla-Gaya alliance holding out for over a century. I'm currently tackling this in my TL, although it's taking a while because Goguryeo has to hold off simultaneous invasions from both China and the southern alliance for close to a century by taking advantage of its adversaries' political and social issues, which is easier said than done.

Could we have plausibly had a situation in the last two-thousand years where both expand simultaneously. This could come in any flavor you'd like. The first that comes to mind is the Atlantic model - the European Atlantic states England, Netherlands, France, Spain, Portugal, checked their ability to take over each other, but managed at the same time to acquire vast overseas territories. The other model is splitting the land and sea domains, wherein Japan expands mostly to the south to additional island or overseas territories, and Korea ends up expanding on the Asian mainland, ruling Manchuria, at least invading China and Russia, and possibly succeeding in holding expanded realm there for several decades.

I'm already planning on a much larger Korea in my scenario, although a similar situation might not necessarily apply to Japan because I'm considering how the Emishi/Ainu can hold out in Hokkaido and Northern Honshu, forcing Japan to focus more on the north. To be brief, Korea will briefly control most of East, Central, and Southeast Asia at its height, although it will then be limited to Manchuria and the Korean Peninsula, as both had been culturally Korean since around 1000 BC. However, this scenario only works due to taking advantage of extreme fragmentation within East Asia at the time, which would only have applied from 390-430, while Korea's expansion into China would not be a requirement.

Have Korea be unified by Koguryo or successor states thereof, and have it survive the coming of the steppe peoples intact. Do that and Korea will have a relatively culturally homogeneous population from the Korean peninsula and the Manchurian plains. Such a state could avoid the under-population & lack of commerce problem that Korea faced due to having a predominantly mountainous terrain, and thus be much stronger than OTL Korea. This could possibly lead to proportionately larger continental ambitions.

For Japan the Tokugawa Shogunate could be butterflied away, with Japan eventually coming under the sway of one of the western clans, say the Shimazu for example. Such a Japan would be much more open to trade and contact with overseas polities, and could possibly have their historic ambitions tied up with the Philippines & the Spice Islands, rather than Korea & China.

I'm currently addressing Korea in my TL, although if Japan manages to expand south, it would take much longer to consolidate its possessions due to the logistics involved.
 
I didn't mean to double post, but I didn't think that it was particularly necessary to edit the previous one.

Could Korea and Japan have launched into large scale expansion without finishing the other one off first?

Could we have plausibly had a situation in the last two-thousand years where both expand simultaneously.

I'll tackle these two in more detail. IOTL, both did expand significantly after the 7th century (Japan) and 10th century (Korea), as both essentially doubled their respective territories within several centuries. However, if you're talking about much more widespread conquests, Korea could have only maintained Manchuria permanently under Goguryeo, as stated earlier, but this also essentially entails conquering Japan as well, as the latter had been culturally influenced by both China and Korea since the 4th century AD, and a peninsular unification would have included numerous conflicts against both Baekje and Japan, as they had been close allies for centuries. As a result, Goguryeo would almost certainly attempt to take advantage of the fragmentation within Japan to overrun the archipelago soon after defeating the southern peninsular alliance led by Baekje.

Further expansions from around 700-1500 or so are virtually impossible. To be specific, Silla bordered Balhae, of which the latter had expanded significantly within Manchuria, and Goryeo was forced to fight exhaustive defensive wars against the Khitan, Jurchen, and Mongols, while also simultaneously doubling its territory gradually after reaching the Yalu (Amnok), Liaodong, and Tumen (Duman), in that order, although it eventually retreated from Liaodong due to logistics. On the other hand, Japan spent centuries pushing its borders against its northern neighbors, so it would not have considered looking much further south at the time as long as tensions continued to simmer. After 1500, assuming that widespread disorder still occurs within Japan during the 15-16th centuries or so, and that unification would soon follow, the unifier would almost certainly consider pushing into Korea, as the Japanese had mistakenly assumed that "Korea" had been part of "Japan" centuries ago based on convoluted mythological stories that severely distorted the actual events in question. In addition, considering that Hideyoshi had insane ambitions to overrun most of China and India after somehow taking over Korea, it seems relatively likely that another alternate figure would have considered something similar due to the large number of soldiers available. Korea might have expanded in the 17th century or so, but this scenario would require butterflying away the Imjin War, while ensuring that negotiations with both the Ming and Jurchen considering Manchuria were smoothly resolved.
 
So this is a challenge and a related question-

Could Korea and Japan have launched into large scale expansion without finishing the other one off first? In OTL, Korea never expanded beyond its peninsula politically, and in its OTL historic bids to expand, Japan started in Korea. When they failed in Korea they quit. When they succeeded 300 years later they went after additional targets subsequently.

Could we have plausibly had a situation in the last two-thousand years where both expand simultaneously. This could come in any flavor you'd like. The first that comes to mind is the Atlantic model - the European Atlantic states England, Netherlands, France, Spain, Portugal, checked their ability to take over each other, but managed at the same time to acquire vast overseas territories. The other model is splitting the land and sea domains, wherein Japan expands mostly to the south to additional island or overseas territories, and Korea ends up expanding on the Asian mainland, ruling Manchuria, at least invading China and Russia, and possibly succeeding in holding expanded realm there for several decades.
If you're talking about plausible simultaneous overseas expansion for Japan and Korea, I would say that the answer is no for most situations. The periods when Japan and Korea were expansionist don't really overlap.

I would say there's a window at the end of the Sengoku Era for Japan, where Hideyoshi turns to the south towards Taiwan and the Philippines, but I don't think that idea is very likely. That could then be combined with Korean expansion in Manchuria, but I don't think that's much likelier either, given how the foundation of the Manchu state has already been laid by Nurhaci.

One last idea could be Korea undergoing a modernization like that under Meiji Japan. That way, there might be Korea and Japan competing for spheres of influence or territory outright in China. They might clash but they certainly wouldn't need to finish each other off.

There's always the possibility of butterflies, but that's hard to justify. But of course, with a POD in 750 or 900 or 1300, the world might be so different a few centuries later that what isn't plausible historically does become possible.
 
I would say there's a window at the end of the Sengoku Era for Japan, where Hideyoshi turns to the south towards Taiwan and the Philippines, but I don't think that idea is very likely. That could then be combined with Korean expansion in Manchuria, but I don't think that's much likelier either, given how the foundation of the Manchu state has already been laid by Nurhaci.

Korea was viewed as more attractive due to resources and distance, not to mention that Hideyoshi had already thought about invading Mainland Asia long before 1592, so a significant divergence would need to occur decades before then. In any case, it probably wouldn't have a significant difference as long as someone manages to unify Japan and has well over 100,000 wandering soldiers, as the victors' spirits would have remained high. On the other hand, Nurhaci's consolidation efforts could have been countered through a joint Ming-Joseon effort without exhaustively spending resources against the Japanese, although diplomacy among all three would have been difficult to continuously maintain.

One last idea could be Korea undergoing a modernization like that under Meiji Japan. That way, there might be Korea and Japan competing for spheres of influence or territory outright in China. They might clash but they certainly wouldn't need to finish each other off.

I didn't mention this because it is probably the most difficult scenario to throughly plan out due to the complex cultural/social, economic, political, and military issues involved, not to mention a general lack of information available. If Korea does not manage to seize Manchuria by 1700, significant societal changes must occur by 1750 or so, as changes must be collectively compounded over time. However, if it somehow manages to head north before then over several decades, the progression might gradually occur soon afterward due to migrations and significant increases in population, although significant reforms must be carried out around 1800. The reason is that a state must first possess a government and economic system conducive to economic growth, along with merchants and managers further spurring development, in order to fulfill the conditions necessary before considering industrialization. Other factors include an opulence of resources, along with a dense population that can employ a large number of workers, as they allow high levels of development to be continuously maintained. Korea fulfilled virtually none of these conditions before Japan forcibly opened up its neighbor's ports in 1876, mostly due to the fact that Confucianism ranked merchants as the lowest class, along with Joseon's continual tributary status to the Ming and Qing, preventing the peninsula from thoroughly considering expansive reforms. It also did not help that the Europeans did not view Korea as a particularly viable trading partner, as opposed to their open attitude toward China and Japan. In any case, changing these conditions would probably also require something along the lines of China rejecting Confucianism entirely, although given Joseon's personal conduct concerning the Qing IOTL, this might actually force Korea to become much more conservative after asserting that it was the last remaining "civilized" state.
 
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