The House of Stewart ruling Ireland and its effect on Irish immigration.

ramones1986

ramones1986

If the Stuarts managed to win the Battle of Boyne and formed a monarchy in Ireland, how it will affect the emigration of the Irish to places like the United States, Canada, New Zealand, Brazil, Argentina, Puerto Rico and, to a lesser extent, Mexico, especially in the late 1840s?

FYI: I'm thinking of this idea because of Erebus' short-lived timeline, which I visited it several times.
 
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EvolvedSaurian

The problem is, the Stuarts would have to be satisfied with merely Ireland, with giving up claim to England and Scotland. I mean, sure, England and Scotland go to William and Mary (and then Anne and then George), Ireland stays with James (although it's probable that the Ulster Scots leave, either back to Scotland or on to America), it's perfectly rational, but that's not how royalty works. It's the same attitude that kept the Hundred Years' War going for so long, albeit that attitude is fraying a bit. During the OTL Jacobite Risings, particularly the '45, one of the problems was the Stuart being in conflict with his, largely Highland, Scottish allies over taking the offensive. They believed that if they aided Bonnie Prince Charles in retaking England, they'd be doubly marginalized, because that was their status before. Mind, things weren't really better for them under Hanover, and that's partially because of the Risings. Anyway...

A Stuart-ruled, independent Ireland would be very close to France, toeing that line carefully. Obviously there would be oodles of butterflies, so that the US is likely to not form, or to form far differently from OTL, likewise Canada, New Zealand and so on.

One of the big changes would be that Ireland would take part at least peripherally in the proto-Industrial Revolution of the 1700s, probably becoming an important textile-manufacturing country, and possibly getting into shipbuilding. With shipbuilding could come colonies but where? Newfoundland might be possible, I believe its strategic value had diminished by this time and both France and England/Britain (I assume we'd still get the Act of Union 1707 to prevent the possibility of Scotland pursuing an independent policy) might appreciate having a buffer in the area. Possibly a minor Caribbean island, a couple of ports in Africa and India, but it's important to remember that Ireland is still not highly populated, so colonies would be limited.

However, with industry as an important sector of the economy, and not focused in Dublin and northeast Ulster as OTL, and with land laws that favor Catholics instead of the opposite, there wouldn't be an enormous potato-dependent and vulnerable population to die and emigrate when Blight comes. I think that's important to understand, in a five year period it's estimated that a million people died from starvation and disease and so on, while another million emigrated to Britain, North America or Australasia, continuing to pour out for the next century. As I recall, Ireland's population only start to gain again in the 1960s, and the whole island still isn't as populous as it was on the cusp of the Famine (about six and a half million in both parts today, as opposed to eight million in 1840). Ireland's diaspora is huge, and it's entirely because of that. Without it, Irish emigration would look more like Italian or Polish emigration, with many people intending to go overseas, make a buck and come back home having moved up a couple of stations. Irish immigration to the US was unusual in that most who came stayed, whereas the usual pattern was for about half of immigrants to stay for less than five years, work what job was available, live in poor conditions and save a pile of money in order to buy land or start a business back in Italy or so on. For us in the Irish diaspora, that wasn't an option. Ireland was dead and going back wasn't in the cards.

Here though, no Famine is a given. Catholic land-ownership would be much much greater, with Protestants being dispossessed, possibly even expelled (and certainly encouraged to move on). So, far fewer uneconomically tiny plots of land on which can only be grown potatoes. More grain, fruits and stock raising. More industry. More trade and some few colonies and settlement possibilities in Newfoundland. Think the Netherlands or Denmark, since Ireland doesn't have the coal to pull a Belgium.

Now, back to the main point of your question (now that I've rambled on for so long, my apologies), I would expect that the main focus of this smaller Irish emigration would be France and Spain and their colonies, assuming they allow it. Spain in particular was picky about who settled where, with Aragonese subjects not allowed to settle in Castilian colonies for the longest time and I'm not sure when that actually changed. OTL though, the Irish Wild Geese and descendants played an important part in Latin America, before and after independence. I see no reason why that would be different here, with northern Mexico (OTL California-Texas), Argentina and Canada (OTL Quebec-Ontario) at least having important Irish populations.

Actually, if it starts early enough, Irish immigration could really shore up Canada's population. They'll never match the British colonies to the south, but if the Irish are assimilated, it would maintain the French character of the colony in its whole, instead of half being anglicized. Oh, one more thing, Britain's population would be a fair bit lower, and France's and Spain's just a touch higher.
 

Thoresby

ramones1986 said:
If the Stuarts managed to win the Battle of Boyne and formed a monarchy in Ireland, how it will affect the emigration of the Irish to places like the United States, Canada, New Zealand, Brazil, Argentina, Puerto Rico and, to a lesser extent, Mexico, especially in the late 1840s?

FYI: I'm thinking of this idea because of Erebus' short-lived timeline, which I visited it several times.
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Isn't going to happen. The Williamite War was going to end one of two ways, either with James II ruling all three Kingdoms or William. Simple geography and the threat of having a French puppet blocking access to the Atlantic means that as long as William is alive and in control of England he will keep sending armies across St George's Channel until he wins. If William is killed on the Boyne or the French manage to secure naval superiority preventing further invasions then you're going to see a Stuart invasion of Britain.

The Williamite War wasn't a war of independence or between two countries. It was a Civil War that all participants acknowledged would end with one person victorious on the Throne in London ruling all three Kingdoms, only identity of the King was in question.
 
Fairdowner

Fairdowner

A stronger Irish nation and culture and a less celtic one in the colonies and America. If it remains independent how would an Irish nation react to the world wars? There might not be such an anti-English sentiment if the events of the potato famine and emigration don't occur to such an extent. Or British absentee landlordism looking further afield to make investment
 

raharris1973

My realistic side supposes that Thoresby is right. But its a fun idea anyway.

Perhaps a middle way is that James and William go several more rounds but eventually exhaust each other where they just have to accept each has their own island. It could be envisioned as a temporary solution on both sides, but it becomes basically the new status quo, even if its not the last war between them.

Evolved Saurian had a string of interesting observations on this, in particular:

I mean, sure, England and Scotland go to William and Mary (and then Anne and then George), Ireland stays with James (although it's probable that the Ulster Scots leave, either back to Scotland or on to America),
Click to expand...

The change in trajectory of Scots-Irish is quite interesting and reminds me of some things I read in James Webb's "Born Fighting".

What effects does the ouster from Ulster after Boyne have on America and Scotland?

If America becomes the main near-term destination, does that make the Scots-Irish culture a larger part of American culture from an earlier point? (I'm forgetting when the big wave really started)

If Scotland is the main destination, who gets changed more, the Scots-Irish, or Scotland? James Webb asserted that the Ulster Scots missed out on the Scottish enlightenment and rapid educational gains of 18th century by leaving Scotland when they did. If they return, they may take full part in it, become more educated, and ultimately there's less "redneck" culture in America. Or, bitter and traumatized returnees from Ulster could partially undermine the Scottish enlightenment, coming back with more religious fervor.
 

Janprimus

raharris1973 said:
My realistic side supposes that Thoresby is right. But its a fun idea anyway.

Perhaps a middle way is that James and William go several more rounds but eventually exhaust each other where they just have to accept each has their own island. It could be envisioned as a temporary solution on both sides, but it becomes basically the new status quo, even if its not the last war between them.

Evolved Saurian had a string of interesting observations on this, in particular:



The change in trajectory of Scots-Irish is quite interesting and reminds me of some things I read in James Webb's "Born Fighting".

What effects does the ouster from Ulster after Boyne have on America and Scotland?

If America becomes the main near-term destination, does that make the Scots-Irish culture a larger part of American culture from an earlier point? (I'm forgetting when the big wave really started)

If Scotland is the main destination, who gets changed more, the Scots-Irish, or Scotland? James Webb asserted that the Ulster Scots missed out on the Scottish enlightenment and rapid educational gains of 18th century by leaving Scotland when they did. If they return, they may take full part in it, become more educated, and ultimately there's less "redneck" culture in America. Or, bitter and traumatized returnees from Ulster could partially undermine the Scottish enlightenment, coming back with more religious fervor.
Click to expand...

Won't there also be groups moving to TTL Ireland, like Stuart Loyalists and English and Scottish Catholics?
 

Dathi THorfinnsson

EvolvedSaurian said:
However, with industry as an important sector of the economy, and not focused in Dublin and northeast Ulster as OTL, and with land laws that favor Catholics instead of the opposite, there wouldn't be an enormous potato-dependent and vulnerable population to die and emigrate when Blight comes. I think that's important to understand, in a five year period it's estimated that a million people died from starvation and disease and so on, while another million emigrated to Britain, North America or Australasia, continuing to pour out for the next century. As I recall, Ireland's population only start to gain again in the 1960s, and the whole island still isn't as populous as it was on the cusp of the Famine (about six and a half million in both parts today, as opposed to eight million in 1840). Ireland's diaspora is huge, and it's entirely because of that. Without it, Irish emigration would look more like Italian or Polish emigration, with many people intending to go overseas, make a buck and come back home having moved up a couple of stations. Irish immigration to the US was unusual in that most who came stayed, whereas the usual pattern was for about half of immigrants to stay for less than five years, work what job was available, live in poor conditions and save a pile of money in order to buy land or start a business back in Italy or so on. For us in the Irish diaspora, that wasn't an option. Ireland was dead and going back wasn't in the cards.

Here though, no Famine is a given. Catholic land-ownership would be much much greater, with Protestants being dispossessed, possibly even expelled (and certainly encouraged to move on). So, far fewer uneconomically tiny plots of land on which can only be grown potatoes. More grain, fruits and stock raising. More industry. More trade and some few colonies and settlement possibilities in Newfoundland. Think the Netherlands or Denmark, since Ireland doesn't have the coal to pull a Belgium.
Click to expand...
I'm afraid that you are wrong here. True, the famine would be less devastating, I suppose, but the amount of food grown in all Ireland didn't come close to feeding the Irish when the potato blight hit. Yes, wheat was exported from Ireland IOTL during the famine, but it was a miniscule amount compared to the amount needed.
 

funnyhat

EvolvedSaurian said:
Actually, if it starts early enough, Irish immigration could really shore up Canada's population. They'll never match the British colonies to the south, but if the Irish are assimilated, it would maintain the French character of the colony in its whole, instead of half being anglicized.
Click to expand...

This actually happened to a large degree in OTL. Irish immigrants intermarried with the Canadiens at a very high rate owing to their common Catholic faith, and their descendants were assimilated into the francophone culture. It's been estimated that 40% of the Québécois today have some degree of Irish ancestry, although it's often "hidden" as many family names were francised (O'Brien became Aubry, Burke became Bourque, Riley became Riel, etc.).

It's possible that in an Ireland with a more pro-Catholic regime, immigration to Canada is less and the francophone population would actually be smaller. (This, in turn, could mean less Québécois emigration to the United States, which was very significant in our OTL, particularly to New England.)
 
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