Is it likely Portugal could have successfully gone Communist in the aftermath of the Carnation Revolution?
People's Republic of Portugal
- Thread starter Rich Mullins
- Start date
Well, the Communists did have certain assets--Prime Minister Goncalves was certainly very close to the PCP. However, if the Communists tried to seize power by force, there would probably have been a civil war, with fierce resistance from the anti-Communist North. Very likely the Communists would have lost such a war, as noted at
https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/2FfUAEre1_c/hbOw2n5sO3AJ
katchen
Banned
This brings up an interesting question. Is there a sort of Brezhnev Doctrine within NATO?
Do NATO members have a right to intervene to change the regime of a member nation if that member nation appears to be running off the rails? If so is that power vested only in the United States? Is the United States exempt from that consensus if it exists?
Do NATO members have a right to intervene to change the regime of a member nation if that member nation appears to be running off the rails? If so is that power vested only in the United States? Is the United States exempt from that consensus if it exists?
What to do if the Communists were to win a free election in a NATO country was always something of an embarrassment to the US, but in the case of Portugal this problem would not arise: There is no way the PCP could have come to power through elections (it never got more than 20%). So I don't think NATO intervention would be analogous to the Brezhnev Doctrine.
It's very unlikely a successful communist coup scenario, the support for the communists was very limited *, regardless of Portugal having had a pro-communist PM during the "hot summer" of 75.
Most people were very anti-communist, ranging from the socialists to the right.
There were also plans from the non communist elements in the military and political parties, to set a provisional government in the north and defeat any communist rebellion, in case the situation ever arised.
The far-left in the military was always only a noisy minority, plus the PCP knew it would be bad for them if they ever rebelled, which is why they never really supported the attempted coup of 25 November 1975, tried by the more radical left.
Hope this helps.
*the social conditions required for their basis of support were always minoritary. The communist support came from a few intellectuals and people living in or originary from areas of the south where there were large absentee landlords and there was a proletariat without a tradition of owning their own lands.
Most people came from a background of their families having their own lands in the countryside, whether small or large plots of land.
Most people were very anti-communist, ranging from the socialists to the right.
There were also plans from the non communist elements in the military and political parties, to set a provisional government in the north and defeat any communist rebellion, in case the situation ever arised.
The far-left in the military was always only a noisy minority, plus the PCP knew it would be bad for them if they ever rebelled, which is why they never really supported the attempted coup of 25 November 1975, tried by the more radical left.
Hope this helps.
*the social conditions required for their basis of support were always minoritary. The communist support came from a few intellectuals and people living in or originary from areas of the south where there were large absentee landlords and there was a proletariat without a tradition of owning their own lands.
Most people came from a background of their families having their own lands in the countryside, whether small or large plots of land.
The (excellent) Fear, Loathing, and Gumbo timeline does indeed feature a Portugal in which the Carnation Revolution is co-opted by the Communists, resulting in a "Democratic Progressive Republic of Portugal", presumably due to butterflies from the earlier PoD.
It's very unlikely a successful communist coup scenario, the support for the communists was very limited *, regardless of Portugal having had a pro-communist PM during the "hot summer" of 75.
Most people were very anti-communist, ranging from the socialists to the right.
There were also plans from the non communist elements in the military and political parties, to set a provisional government in the north and defeat any communist rebellion, in case the situation ever arised.
The far-left in the military was always only a noisy minority, plus the PCP knew it would be bad for them if they ever rebelled, which is why they never really supported the attempted coup of 25 November 1975, tried by the more radical left.
Hope this helps.
*the social conditions required for their basis of support were always minoritary. The communist support came from a few intellectuals and people living in or originary from areas of the south where there were large absentee landlords and there was a proletariat without a tradition of owning their own lands.
Most people came from a background of their families having their own lands in the countryside, whether small or large plots of land.
Seconded!.