Five Rings Unbroken [2.0]

October 2, 2009 – The first round of voting was finished. Countless cities and countries had spent millions in lobbying, ad campaigns, and organizing; when it was narrowed down to four candidates, millions more were spent; earlier that day, world leaders, entertainers, athletes, and more had flown to Denmark to speak in favor of the four venues; and now it was up to the members of the IOC. And after today, there would be a selection, and the location of the 2016 Olympics would be known to the world.

But first the four had to become three -- and the votes for that were now in.


And by the narrowest of margins, Tokyo was out of the running. In the next round 11 of the 20 Tokyo votes went to Chicago's biggest competitor, Rio leaving little enough, that Chicago once again narrowly averted elimination, gaining neither of the additional votes permitted for the second round.


The world watched -- Obama fans in America rooting for Chicago, Brazilians in mass gatherings cheering on their city. The next round put 30 votes at play -- those who had voted for Madrid in the second, plus two more eligible votes. And the vote came in:


And after two narrowly averted eliminations, the Windy City was to be the venue for the 2016 Summer Olympic Games. This announcement would mean many things, but at this precise moment, the American media only really had one thing to say about it -- that 2009 really was turning out to be a good year for their new President, Barack Obama.



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Attendees at the Conservative “Defending the American Dream Summit” great news of Chicago's Olympic Victory with boos, criticism


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October 2-4
Approve: 53%
Disapprove: 39%

October 7-9
Approve: 57%
Disapprove: 37%


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Good week with IOC, Nobel Prize, gives Obama 20 point spread in polls


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Hey, criticism's one thing, loyal opposition's one thing, but the Tea Party -- look, let's just look at the past month alone here.

October has been filled with what would, to just about any sane individual, appear to be good news for -- look, not just for the Obama Administration, but for America. I mean, the President's home town of Chicago was chosen to host the 2016 Olympics, a week later comes the news that Obama himself had been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. The Administration's been making progress on gay rights, reaffirming an end to Don't Ask Don't Tell, signing the Matthew Shepard Act.

And what does the right do? America getting the Olympics is suddenly “Obama selling out America to his Eurpean Elite buddies” [sic]; Obama getting the Nobel Prize is a “travesty” because “he doesn't really deserve it” -- nevermind the President essentially agreed with them.

But that's just the Tea Party -- a good day for America is just another chance to take a shot at the President.


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Little surprise from the primary elections in Massachussetts today, as Martha Coakley was chosen as the Democratic nominee, and Scott Brown was chosen for the Republicans.

--CNN.com, December 8, 2009

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On the legislative side, the big story had to be the US Senate finally voting its version of Health Care Reform. Joe Lieberman played a central role in getting the Senate to drop the Public Option from its version. If, like the President, you think the Public Option is getting a disproportiante amount of press coverage for what it'll do, then the fight is pretty much over. For those who think this dropped element is the most important part of the reforms being discussed, you'll want to pay really close attention to the Conference Committee -- that's where Lieberman will face down against the House Progressives, who have vowed to vote against any reform without a Public Option, and they'll see who blinks first. (That's of course, not accounting for how the election in Massachussetts plays out, but that's for another time.)

--Jonathan Bernstein, Plain Blog About Politics, “What Mattered This Month”, December 29, 2009

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Health Care Reform will circumvent Conference Committee, say Democrats; Will use “Ping Pong” Method


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So the White House and the campaign arranged for the President to come out in just two days, one week before the election -- I guess they had seen a recent poll with Brown winning and decided we needed a boost, which is overanxious if you ask me, but who am I to say no, you know? Anyway he comes out on the 12th, gives his speech, all goes well, but then he pulls me aside after and says “Why the 'H' aren't you out there? Why no baby kissing, why no retail politics?” Again, I thought it was a bit much, but after that nobody wanted to -- because you know, even if he was wrong and I still won, it doesn't hurt to just listen to the President when he's in your party.




No, I haven't been shaking a lot of hands lately, but that's something I'm going to work on. Thank you.


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Martha Coakley (D) -- 50.45% -- 1,212,361
Scott Brown (R) -- 48.62% -- 1,168,292


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OOC: This is kind of a second attempt at this TL. Let's see where this goes...

Can't say that I'm unhappy that Scott Brown lost ITTL and having that filibuster proof majority for a while longer would have helped(although Lieberman wouldn't have been the type to bend to the House. Perhaps when it went to Conference some more of the quirks of the ACA could have been worked out better).

This could be an interesting TL although 2010 is still going to be bad for Democrats.

PistolSO said:

...(although Lieberman wouldn't have been the type to bend to the House. Perhaps when it went to Conference some more of the quirks of the ACA could have been worked out better).

This could be an interesting TL although 2010 is still going to be bad for Democrats.

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Well, 2010 certainly won't be worse for the Democrats, but that hardly makes things rosy. Before they go on to lose the House (still), they'll get a chance to pass slightly more legislation -- though it will be a fairly boring one that actually has the biggest political (and overall short term) effects

Well, you'll note (or maybe even remember) that Democrats were already ditching the Conference Committee for a "ping pong" approach -- that's where the Senate bill goes to the House for amending, then back to the Senate, etc. Though now that Lieberman's literally the only thing standing in the way of a public option, the negotiations are at least going to be affected by this. Expect liberal House Democrats to hold their ground, and for the President to subsequently get involved.

Very interested to see this continue!

Sorry I don't have more to say than that at the moment, I'd rather just wait and see where you take it.

This looks cool. Good luck!

The President met with Senator Lieberman today. Sources say the President expressed concern about the ongoing standoff with the Senator and liberal caucuses in the House which, unresolved, would likely kill the healthcare reform bill that has now passed both houses of congress in one form or another. The Progressive and Black Caucuses have stated that they will not vote for any healthcare bill that does not include a public option, though caucus leaders have recently expressed support for a program like Medicare Buy-In (which would still only be available to citizens 55 and older) proposed earlier by Lieberman. No healthcare bill can pass the House without their support; likewise, without Senator Lieberman at least voting for cloture, no such bill can get a vote on the floor of the Senate.

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It's for these reasons that I'm proposing a simple and common-sense reform, which we're calling the "Volcker Rule" -- after this tall guy behind me. Banks will no longer be allowed to own, invest, or sponsor hedge funds, private equity funds, or proprietary trading operations for their own profit, unrelated to serving their customers. If financial firms want to trade for profit, that's something they're free to do. Indeed, doing so –- responsibly –- is a good thing for the markets and the economy. But these firms should not be allowed to run these hedge funds and private equities funds while running a bank backed by the American people.




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In his State of the Union address last night, the President talked about immigration reform, DADT, tax cuts -- he even made a point of repeating "we will extend the middle-class tax cuts" -- and, of course, health-care. What I didn't see was any serious push to save the climate change bill which faces an uncertain fate in the Senate...


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America wiped the ice in Vancouver! With 11 Gold, 14 Silver, 14 Bronze -- America, after Canada, won the most Gold... But the real winners are all the talented athletes who trained for years to meet me. Special shout-out goes to Katherine Reutter, who won Gold with my signature riding shotgun on her firm haunches! Also, to team Night Train, for winning Gold in the four man crap-your-pants! And of course to Shanni Davis, who brought home two gold medals...




OOC and EDIT NOTE: I've merged this post with the last update.

On the last updateShanni Davis does a second better at the Men's 1500 Meters, Wang Meng does between a tenth and a fifth of a second worse in the Women's Short Track 1000 Meters, and Reutter does maybe half a second better in the Women's Short Track 1500 Meters; end result is Davis has an extra gold, and Katherine Reutter has a Gold and an extra Bronze

Will follow. Looks interesting. I especially like how the Olympics are so far playing a big role in your timeline. It's a breath of fresh air.

President Barack Obama proposes a $3.8 trillion fiscal 2011 budget today that calls for $100 billion in additional stimulus spending and projects this year’s deficit will hit a record $1.6 trillion. The plan would reduce the shortfall in part by imposing more than $800 billion in higher taxes and fees on those earning more than $250,000, banks that benefited from the financial industry bailout and the oil, gas and coal industries.


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Senator Lieberman announced today that he would be joining a special committee to draft an amendment to the Senate's Affordable Care Act, which would create a new program within Medicare allowing citizens above the age of 50 to "buy in" to the program early. (Lieberman himself had first proposed a minimum age of 55 for such a program, but agreed that the age could be lower as part of a wider compromise.) "With sufficient fees in addition to Medicare taxes" the Senator said "this program can save Medicare and the Federal Government billions a year." Speaker Pelosi has indicated that the House "stands ready to vote on the amendment and the bill" as soon as it is completed.


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House passes Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act


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This is a big fucking deal.



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Buoyed by passage of landmark health care legislation, the Obama administration and Democrats in Congress said Wednesday that an overhaul of financial regulations was the next legislative priority...


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Deepwater Horizon, a large deep-water drilling vessel, exploded at around 10 p.m. Tuesday...

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OOC: The first and last two snippets here are word for word from OTL sources (though second to last was from a later date, obviously).

Democratic Congressional Leaders say the House will hold committee hearings for next years budget next week, with hopes for the both houses to vote on it in time for the August recess... GOP criticism has not let up, with Minority Leader Boehner leading the charge. "The fact that the Democrats still want to pass a budget before we've even had a chance to hear from the bipartisan deficit reduction committee. This just further shows how the Democrats are not, and have never been, serious about our nation's crushing debt."


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Dodd-Frank Act signed by President




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TO: Liking your TL so far; I'm a little confused on how TTL's Dodd-Frank Act is supposed to be different from OTL's. "Thus the Merkley-Levin across-the-board ban on risky proprietary trading became a partial ban in which insurers, mutual funds and trusts are completely exempt, and banks can still gamble three percent of their holdings." What does that mean?
JFP: Well, bear in mind that I'm *quoting* Matt Taibbi here; part of it was me trying to capture his hyperbolic writing style. I was trying to flesh out the general idea that the Volcker Rule would be weaker without a supermajority, but admittedly a lot of that's just speculation. Admittedly, the more I researched this big law, the more I feel like I've got no hold on this stuff.


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As Congress returns from the August recess, it looks like the first order of business is going to be tax cuts. Democrats are looking to make good on President Obama's pledge to extend the Bush tax cuts for those making under $250,000 a year, while Republicans are going to continue to push for across the board extensions...


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Senate Races
Delaware -- Michael Castle (R) defeats Chris Coons (D)
Indiana -- Evan Bayh (D) defeats John Hostettler (R)
Pennsylvania -- Joe Sestak (D) narrowly defeats Pat Toomey (R)

House Elections
233 Republicans
202 Democrats

Gubernatorial Elections
Florida -- Alex Sink (D) narrowly defeats Rick Scott (R)




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OOC: Yes, I used the "OTL as AH w/in AH" trick, and a quote from OTL at that; I'm lazy like that...

Isn't it too soon to do a serious Obamawank timeline?

Wendell said:

Isn't it too soon to do a serious Obamawank timeline?

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Well as it so happens, I've got no idea what 2011 is going to be like now, politically speaking -- most notably, because now that the Congress has passed a budget, and has a lame duck session to raise the debt ceiling (among other things), there won't be a ceiling or shutdown crisis for the next year at the very least. So what are Obama and the GOP going to work on, or fight about?

John Fredrick Parker said:

Well as it so happens, I've got no idea what 2011 is going to be like now, politically speaking -- most notably, because now that the Congress has passed a budget, and has a lame duck session to raise the debt ceiling (among other things), there won't be a ceiling or shutdown crisis for the next year at the very least. So what are Obama and the GOP going to work on, or fight about?

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Probably immigration or the economy.

Wendell said:

Probably immigration or the economy.

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So 2011 could see an serious jobs bill? That would have interesting repercussions. Any other thoughts?

John Fredrick Parker said:

So 2011 could see an serious jobs bill? That would have interesting repercussions. Any other thoughts?

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Even more than a jobs bill would/could be an immigration bill. The latter makes more sense strategically.

Wendell said:

Even more than a jobs bill would/could be an immigration bill. The latter makes more sense strategically.

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The Democrats could pass the DREAM Act in the lame duck session, so that's a start at least. It's interesting to think how Obama could have pushed for a more comprehensive bill working with a GOP House...

John Fredrick Parker said:

The Democrats could pass the DREAM Act in the lame duck session, so that's a start at least. It's interesting to think how Obama could have pushed for a more comprehensive bill working with a GOP House...

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It may be tricky, but might not be impossible with the tables so turned like in this timeline.

You know, this is something that I think every president needs to go through, because . . . the responsibilities of this office are so enormous and so many people are depending on what we do, and in the rush of activity sometimes we lose track of . . . the ways that we connected with folks that got us here in the first place. Now, I'm not recommending for every future president that they take a shellacking like I did last night. You know, I'm sure there're easier ways to learn these lessons.


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This has been, arguably, the most productive lame duck session since WWI. Congress has now extended unemployment benefits; raised the debt ceiling; repealed "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"; ratified the START Treaty with Russia; and passed the DREAM Act, the 9/11 First Responders Bill, and a food safety bill -- and many of these the Senate has passed in the last few days.




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Rahm Emanuel is a Chicago resident and therefore can run for mayor, the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners ruled Thursday. The unanimous ruling in favor of the former White House chief of staff comes after board hearing officer Joe Morris ruled early Thursday morning that Emanuel’s name should remain on the ballot even though he moved to Washington D.C. in 2009 to work for President Obama.


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OOC: The first and last posts here are OTL quotes, just to show they're still happening. Still need ideas for National Politics in 2011 -- we've got a jobs bill and immigration reform so far. Any other ideas?

Perhaps the defeat of Emmanuel? More rail in Florida? Would the US still withdraw from Iraq on schedule?

Orville_third said:

Perhaps the defeat of Emmanuel? More rail in Florida? Would the US still withdraw from Iraq on schedule?

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I don't see how that would change at this point, but Syria and Libya could be different I suppose.

OMG, I hadn't even thought about the Arab Spring -- but a different tone in Washington seems like it would have profound effects in US policies toward them. I could really use feedback on that, if anyone has any. Does anyone have info on how domestic politics affected things like the Libya intervention or Syria policies? Would a somewhat better relationship with Congress and possible better poll numbers make the Obama administration more or less interventionist?