AHC: Successful November Uprising, Kingdom of Poland

How does the Kingdom of Poland effectively win its Revolution against the Russian tsar?

The best solution to me makes the title a misnomer: the Uprising happens 2 years earlier soon after the outbreak of the Russo-Turkish War, and thus is not known as the November Uprising.

Support from Prussia or France, both of whom supported the Poles, could improve matters for the Poles but would definitely complicate things.

Ultimately, the most important missing piece would be confident leadership. Many of the unifying figures of the November Uprising doubted their chances at success, and often compromised their position or refused to strengthen their military in hopes of mollifying Russia.

Bonus points if Emilia Plater becomes a Joan of Arc figure, or better yet, the Queen of a re-unified Poland-Lithuania. She could be the confident, competent, unifying figure that Poland needs to succeed. Would this be more possible if she were born Emile Plater, and became a King of Poland? I'd prefer to keep her chromosomes the same if possible, but take what measures must be taken.

Bonus points if you can get the Hungarians to effect a successful revolt against Austria in the same timeframe.

Prussia never supported the November Uprising and it is hard to see why it should have. Victorious Poles would have been a direct threat to Prussia, since they would have been very interested in retaking the lands taken by Prussia during the partitions, with mostly Polish population (Great Poland - Wielkopolska, with Poznań, e.g.). IOTL Prussian army created a cordon on the border between Congress Poland and Great Poland and Prussia blocked supply transport coming to Poles from France. While German people, also in Prussia, felt generally pretty sympathetic towards the Poles, the Prussian government did not. So Prussia wouldn't help the Poles - more likely Prussian army would help the Russians to protect the Holy Alliance.
France ruled by Charles X (since the November Uprising starts 2 years earlier, before the July Revolution - which BTW might have been a spark to ignite Polish uprising) wouldn't have supported the Poles. Charles was a complete reactionary, and he would have been firlmy against the people rebelling against its legitimate ruler, because said ruler violated the constitution.
Therefore, it would take an earlier revolution in France, possibly also in Belgium, to give Poles any international support. Prussia would need to be at least neutralized, just like Austria, which also had taken Polish territories and would fear that victorious Polish uprising might spread to their lands. In short, what we need is an earlier Spring of Nations.

MonsieurRaisins said:

How does the Kingdom of Poland effectively win its Revolution against the Russian tsar?

The best solution to me makes the title a misnomer: the Uprising happens 2 years earlier soon after the outbreak of the Russo-Turkish War, and thus is not known as the November Uprising.

Support from Prussia or France, both of whom supported the Poles, could improve matters for the Poles but would definitely complicate things.

Ultimately, the most important missing piece would be confident leadership. Many of the unifying figures of the November Uprising doubted their chances at success, and often compromised their position or refused to strengthen their military in hopes of mollifying Russia.

Bonus points if Emilia Plater becomes a Joan of Arc figure, or better yet, the Queen of a re-unified Poland-Lithuania. She could be the confident, competent, unifying figure that Poland needs to succeed. Would this be more possible if she were born Emile Plater, and became a King of Poland? I'd prefer to keep her chromosomes the same if possible, but take what measures must be taken.

Bonus points if you can get the Hungarians to effect a successful revolt against Austria in the same timeframe.

Click to expand...

Impossible. An earlier rising would mean no French support, as France would still be ruled by Charles X and I can't see him sending aid to a revolutionary movement. And Prussia would NEVER support such a rising. A revived Poland would be a massive threat to Prussia, Austria and Russia, as each controls large swaths of the former Commonwealth. It would essentially be Prussia shooting itself in the foot.

And the problem is those figures who could unify the Polish were RIGHT to stay away. Realistically it would never succeed. This was the age of the Holy Alliance. Even IF the Polish started to beat the Russians, and that's a BIG if, then the other nations, like Prussia and Austria, would send troops to help put down the uprising. A revolutionary government in Europe at this time wouldn't be tolerated.

As to Emilia Plater, not gonna work. Sure she could be a unifying figure but no much more. Poland had no history of female monarchs so it wouldn't start now. Se might become a Queen-Consort but not much more.

Even an earlier spring of nations or alt-crimean war is very unlikely to make Austria or Prussia friendly or helpful - although they can certainly be distracted by them. (Merging the war and spring together with the uprising could make for an interesting timeline, by the way).

Emperor Constantine said:

As to Emilia Plater, not gonna work. Sure she could be a unifying figure but no much more. Poland had no history of female monarchs so it wouldn't start now. Se might become a Queen-Consort but not much more.

Click to expand...

Not necessarily.