1991 Iraqi Revolution and Beyond

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1991 was a year of democracy. In Eastern Europe, the Soviet Union collapsed and the communist order ended. And in the Middle east, Iraqis overthrew their brutal, Stalinist dictator, Saddam Hussein. In hindsight, the Ba'athist government of Iraq was doomed to fail. From 1980, Iraq had been at war, first with Iraq, a country three times its size, and then in 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait. Sectarian tensions were the cracks in Saddam's regime. Iraq was a majority Shi'ite country but the Sunni minority held power. In the north, the Kurds yearned for independence and sporadically revolted, only to be temporarily silenced by the infamous Al-Anfal campaign.

The Gulf War turned the cracks in Saddam's regime into open wounds. Iraq was humiliated and its army in disarray as the US chased it from Kuwait. Thousands deserted in the chaos and US troops advanced into Iraq. Years of war had ruined Iraq economically and Saddam's repression had caused open social wounds. All that was needed was a spark.

On March 1, 1991, the Iraqi Revolution started. A tank fired a shell into the giant portrait of Saddam while onlooking soldiers applauded. Riots erupted throughout southern Iraq. Most of the Iraqi army defected and joined the revolutionaries. Ba'athist officials were literally torn apart and government offices, bases, and buildings were burned.

Meanwhile, in northern Iraq, the Kurdish peshmerga revolted. The Kurdistan Democratic Party(KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan(PUK) led the revolt. The peshmerga took Suleimania, Erbil, Mosul and Kirkuk. Northern Iraq fell from Saddam's control. On April 1, the Kurdish leaders met in Mosul and agreed to next march on Baghdad.

14/18 of Iraq's provinces fell from Saddam's control. US troops occupied southern Iraq. President Bush gave the approval for the creation of a no-fly zone over southern Iraq and Kurdistan. Defense Secretary Cheney declared that the United States would not tolerate violence against the Iraqi people. US troops established a buffer zone in southern Iraq. Saddam was forced not to attack the south.

By now however, Saddam's fall was inevitable. The remaining troops in Baghdad revolted. Meanwhile, the Iraqi Army in the south advanced north and PUK militants advanced south. On April 10, the UN passed a resolution calling for Saddam to be overthrown and condemning him for crimes against humanity. US forces bombed Baghdad and Tikrit.
From Kuwait and southern Iraq, US troops marched towards Baghdad. Only small splatters of Republican Guard resistance remained.

Troops marched into central Baghdad. Protesters smashed Saddam's statue and toppled it before chopping it into pieces. This symbolic act was seen on televisions across the world and showed the Iraqi Revolution's success. After fighting in the suburbs of Baghdad, the city fell by April 20. Saddam Hussein was captured by US troops as was Ali Hassan al-Majid and Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri. Saddam's two sons were killed.

Guerilla resistance by Ba'athist loyalists in Tikrit continued until June. A new interim government was established,led by Ahmad Chalabi as interim president and Ibrahim Jafaari as interim Prime Minister. The Ba'athist regime was dissolved. Iran's army was re-organised and established security. On May 15, 1991, the Kurds declared independence as the Republic of Kurdistan. Iraq was now irreversibly on a new path.

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The 1991 uprisings actually happened and Saddam lost 14/18 of Iraq. However, the first Bush administration didn't intervene and kettles the Republican Guard slaughter over 180,000 Shi'ites and crush the uprisings. This is a TL where Iraq is a different democracy and while slightly idealistic, will hopefully be plausible and intriguing. Enjoy!

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Please continue.
Any scenario that purges Hussain and his imbecilic family along with the Ba'ath Party AND gives a chance for a fairly stable Iraq is good.

Are you planning on making it just a short TL on Iraq or something more with butterflys all over the place?

EDIT: How will Iraq react to Independent Kurdistan? Will they just take it lying down. They even might get support from Turkey or even Iran to suppress the rebels if they chose to do so.
 

John Farson

Banned
Here's to hoping that the clusterfuck of OTL 2003-04 is avoided here with Saddam's earlier fall. It seems the Iraqi army is being re-organized rather than fired en masse, which is a start.
 

Curiousone

Banned
Saddam wasn't a Stalinist. Totalitarian regime, secret police, one party etc but not Stalinist (small quibble).

The U.S.A OTL didn't act to support the opposition in Iraq, it betrayed it. Twice. 91 & 98. An explanation for this would be good (larger quibble).
 
Saddam wasn't a Stalinist. Totalitarian regime, secret police, one party etc but not Stalinist (small quibble).

Not ideologically but in measure of tyranny and How he acted he was quite'Stalinist'.


[QUOTE =Curiousone;8391561]The U.S.A OTL didn't act to support the opposition in Iraq, it betrayed it. Twice. 91 & 98. An explanation for this would be good (larger quibble).[/QUOTE]

Cheney and Bush reportedly didn't want to get bogged down in Iraq(the irony:D). I just changed it so Bush decided to do so. Yes, it was a very big betrayal, encouraging the uprising then abandoning it.
 
Saddam wasn't a Stalinist. Totalitarian regime, secret police, one party etc but not Stalinist (small quibble).

The U.S.A OTL didn't act to support the opposition in Iraq, it betrayed it. Twice. 91 & 98. An explanation for this would be good (larger quibble).

Plus I don't think a Shia uprising against a Sunni-ruled regime would be very clean: it would get sectarian quite quickly, likely even involving foreign Shia fighters (Iran in particular would be sensible to try and undermine the hated Ba'athists). This would help the Hussein regime because they could portray their enemies as puppets of Iran.
 
Plus I don't think a Shia uprising against a Sunni-ruled regime would be very clean: it would get sectarian quite quickly, likely even involving foreign Shia fighters (Iran in particular would be sensible to try and undermine the hated Ba'athists). This would help the Hussein regime because they could portray their enemies as puppets of Iran.

I haven't said Iraq was clean or will be clean. Though yes, it probably could've been more violent.
 
Please continue.
Any scenario that purges Hussain and his imbecilic family along with the Ba'ath Party AND gives a chance for a fairly stable Iraq is good.

Are you planning on making it just a short TL on Iraq or something more with butterflys all over the place?

EDIT: How will Iraq react to Independent Kurdistan? Will they just take it lying down. They even might get support from Turkey or even Iran to suppress the rebels if they chose to do so.

Thanks. Yes, my idea is a stable, democratic Iraq and will continue this TL to the present day.

Naturally, there will be butterflies somewhere but I'm not yet totally sure what. Earlier Arab Spring?

Yes, I think Iraq and Turkey would likely invade Kurdistan and continue the conflict. On the other hand, Iraq could negotiate a settlement with Kurdistan, either an autonomous region or recognise full independence. I do think there might be a Turko-Kurdish War.
 

Curiousone

Banned
Not ideologically but in measure of tyranny and How he acted he was quite'Stalinist'.


[QUOTE =Curiousone;8391561]The U.S.A OTL didn't act to support the opposition in Iraq, it betrayed it. Twice. 91 & 98. An explanation for this would be good (larger quibble).

Cheney and Bush reportedly didn't want to get bogged down in Iraq(the irony:D). I just changed it so Bush decided to do so. Yes, it was a very big betrayal, encouraging the uprising then abandoning it.[/QUOTE]


No, no, no, no. Bush the Elder didn't keep U.S ground troops in Iraq because he didn't want the bogged down there. That's not the reason the U.S encouraged the rebellions with the promise of air support & then betrayed them to Saddam's tender mercies. They did that because they didn't want an alternative power than themselves to be able to create a plausibly legitimate government in-waiting. See the common wisdom explanation of why the Red Army stopped before Warsaw.

Realpolitik. Not a sage avoidance of imperial overstretch.
 
I'd love to see an independent Kurdistan, if they can survive the inevitable Turkish attack they could become America's 2nd biggest ally in the region.
Also, any chance of an Israeli/Kurd alliance in this TL?
 
I'd love to see an independent Kurdistan, if they can survive the inevitable Turkish attack they could become America's 2nd biggest ally in the region.

I think they could survive. One source said that Turkey had enough trouble dealing with 5,000 peshmerga it could easily be defeated by 80,000. What do you think?
 
I might be wrong, but I don't think the UN ever passed a resolution calling for the overthrow of a Chief of State.
 
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