WI both main sides in the Bosnian War had equal air forces ?

One of the things that has always struck me about the 1990s Bosnian Civil War is how decisive air power could have been for both main factions of the war, prior to NATO stepping in during the late phase of the war to carry out a few airstrikes.

So, let's say both the Republika Srpska and the Federation would start the war on a more equal footing in terms of commandeered aircraft inventory. Some main questions related to the POD :

1.) How plausible is a roughly equal commandeering of aircraft, both fixed-wing and helicopters, and both combat and support aircraft ?
2.) Where would the RS and the Federation capture them ? Which side would have more of a difficulty in doing so ?
3.) Where would both sides house, maintain and rearm their aircraft and which side could have more difficulty in doing so ?
4.) Which of the aircraft at the RS' and Federation's disposal would probably be the most worthless, needing to be abandoned to not eat up the budget and supplies that would be needed for the more useful aircraft ?
5.) What roles would you assign to what aircraft, givent the context of the war ?


Info on Bosnian aircraft inventories when the war started :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republika_Srpska_Air_Force#Creation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Army_of_the_Federation_of_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Force_and_Anti-Aircraft_Defence_of_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina

All in all, according to my calculations, when the war started, the two sides had the following :

Aircraft with relatively official numbers

3-11 UTVA 75 turboprop trainers (numbers are dubious on this one, the RS probably had 2, while the Federation had at least 1 - both probably had more, but didn't engage them too much)
11 SOKO J-21 Jastreb jet trainers (RS only)
1 SOKO G-4 Galeb jet trainer (RS only)
7 SOKO J-22 Orao strike fighters (RS only)
15 UH-1H Iroquois utility helicopters (Federation only, can't find more details on whether they were mostly post-war purchases or not)
22 SOKO Gazelle utility helicopters (seem to have been RS only during the war)
30 and more Mi-8 transport and CAS helicopters (numbers wary, but the Federation apparently had as much as 20 or more (22 ?), while the RS had at least 11)

Aircraft with exact numbers unknown (mostly from the RS side)

An-2
PZL-104 Wilga
Zlín 526F
Cessna 172
Piper PA-18-150 Super Cub (both RS and Federation, so it seems)

If we go by official numbers, then the entirety of Bosnia had about 70-82 airworthy military aircraft, with the RS having a 42-strong air force with adequate mixed capability in 1992 and the Federation side a 26-46 strong air wing with limited capabilities (mostly for transport and recon only) during the early 90s in general.

Obviously, the Federation only managed to commandeer a few helicopters (ca 15 UH-1Hs, 22 Mi-8s) and only a few UTVA 75 fixed-wing planes (some sources say they were 11, some say that only a single one). Naturally, without any fighters or ground attack planes, the capabilities of the Federation's air component was limited at best and only saw support flights for the ground forces of the ArBiH.

The RS had it generally better, with SOKO Oraos, Galebs and Jastrebs in addition to the SOKO Gazelle and Mi-8 helicopters. They also had a fairly good variety of support and liaison aircraft, especially later on - including the An-2, UTVA-66, UTVA-75, Zlin 526F, PZL-104 Wilga 80, Piper PA-18-150 Super Cub and Cessna 172. The RS' air force had roughly 42 aircraft in 1992. One notable fact is that the Banja Luka airbase grew considerably in capability between June and August 1991, after pretty much all of the existing air wings of the JNA were flown out of Slovenia and Croatia. While not all of the evacuated squadrons were moved to Banja Luka, the local airbase still received enough of an inventory to double the size of its aircraft complement. During the war years, the RS lost a total of 18 aircraft : 5 Oraos, 6 Jastrebs, 5 Gazelles and 2 Mi-8.



P.S. I am not naive or arrogant enough to assume that air power alone could decide the entire war - that's a very 1990s notion. But I do think that a less one-sided balance of domestic air power could have been beneficial for bringing about an earlier stalemate and would have created less of a need for outside military help.

If the other aspects of the war are effectively unchanged, it wouldn't make too much of a difference, because the Serbs would be able to obtain fuel and spare parts for their aircraft much more easily than would the Bosnians. Not only that, but Serbian air bases were less vulnerable to attack than Bosnian ones. So the air power of the Bosnians would have been rapidly diminished.

It is true that the Federation had less AA systems available, particularly portable ones (there were only about 15 AA vehicles for the entire polity, at the very most).

Any ideas on how the Federation could potentially risk it with a proper (if small) aerial strike force, in a desperate, borderline suicidal attempt to reduce the RS inventory and force the RS into an earlier armistice ? Bonus points if they could pull it off without the Croats and NATO powers. Do you think Oraos would be nesessary in such an all-or-nothing airbase raid ? Or would the jet trainers be enough to pull off such a stunt, even at the cost of getting destroyed along with their crews ? Naturally, if this happened without them inflicting at least some major hits on the RS' strike force, it would be a pretty pointless sacrifice. On the plus side, if it succeeds, it would at least allow the Federation to avoid criticism by certain Serbian groups of "going to bed with NATO and bombing poor Srpska citizens with NATO aircraft in revenge". Depriving any of the two factions of excuses for prolonging the war and seeking revenge could usher in a ceasefire or armistice somewhat sooner than in OTL.

Note that in OTL 1994, Milošević eventually realized that propping up the RS militarily is becoming a burden to Serbia and that he should bail out before he'd come under great post-war accusations of helping the RS a bit too much. If this 1994 withdrawal also happens in the ATL (or even sooner), there might be a chance to force the RS to consider a ceasefire earlier than in OTL - provided that said ATL raid by the Federation proves succesful in destroying the more powerful combat aircraft of the RS (basically, the jets - as the helicopters pose less of a threat and are far better suited for ground forces support instead of attacking).

The main problem is that RS were given their Airforce by the JNA, ABiH had to capture or buy theirs. The strength of RS airforce is completely reliant on how much or how little the JNA is willing to leave behind.

Marko said:

The main problem is that RS were given their Airforce by the JNA, ABiH had to capture or buy theirs. The strength of RS airforce is completely reliant on how much or how little the JNA is willing to leave behind.

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That's why I also mentioned the summer 1991 events as a possible POD.

Could someone hastily confiscate some of the JNA stocks before they move them out ? Perhaps Slovenia, which then secretly sells them to the Federation ?

Or could some of the JNA squadrons defect to the Federation or get stuck their for any reason ?

One thing I have in mind in terms of Federation aircraft maintenance is that the ArBiH could adopt a policy of "we keep it flying until we run out of spare parts, and after that we keep flying until it loses airworthiness or the fuel completely runs out". Again, a very risky idea. But they could gain some ground with it, opening a window for the domestic ground forces to prevent further captures of the Federation's territory. As long as the first view raids would prove at least somewhat succesful, they wouldn't need combat aircraft later on - with the RS air force mostly neutered, they'd have less of a reason to fear the RS and the two ground forces could fight each other on a more equal footing.

Of course, this assumes that ATL Milošević and the rest of the Serbian leadership stop backing the RS military at some point, just like in the aforementioned OTL case (that occured in 1994). If they don't, well... Then all of the Federation's sly attacks were for nothing. But I think an event like that would still happen. The ATL wouldn't be different enough to avoid Serbia stopping its quiet military support of the RS forces.

Petike said:

That's why I also mentioned the summer 1991 events as a possible POD.

Could someone hastily confiscate some of the JNA stocks before they move them out ? Perhaps Slovenia, which then secretly sells them to the Federation ?

Or could some of the JNA squadrons defect to the Federation or get stuck their for any reason ?

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Highly unlikely since one of the main terms for JNA withdrawl from first Slovenia and later (unoccupied)Croatia was that their surrounded forces are allowed to leave. Slovenians refuse and Slovenia turns into a Croatia style bloodbath, Croatia could acquire a bit more but would suffer a wide scale devastation of civilian areas outside the battlelines since those were the orders given to surrounded garnisons - "If in danger to being over run just expand your ammunition on everything in range".

What could defect, did defect by summer of 91 and that was only a handful of aircraft. JNA airforce security was very good since they considered themselves the elite of the army.

Good points, Marko. I guess that route is simply untenable, given the circumstances and the JNA's masterry over the whole situation.

All right, a slightly more probable plan : The Federation ground forces have a lucky fluke and temporarily capture one of the more western RS airbases. They are forced to withdraw within a few days, but before that, they manage to fly out a few trainers or one or two fighters to their own airbases, either with the help of their own pilots (there were some Bosniak and Bosnian Croat jet pilots, right ?) or with the help of mercenary ones. RS eventually recaptures the base, but is short of a few combat aircraft. Not a significant setback for them, but the forces become slightly more even in terms of capability.

Of course, even if they pull this off, it still begs the question of "Where will the Federation-captured jets land at and operate from for the remaindeer of the war ?". Sarajevo airport is out for obvious reasons, but where else could the Federation concentrate their newly gained fixed-wing assets ?

Alternate History Geek said:

Why has everyone been ignoring the possibilities with the air force of the Croatian Republic of Herzeg-Bosnia?

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Even if Herzeg-Bosna had the capability, I don't think it would side with the Federation all that much. Part of the reason why Herzeg-Bosna was set up was because a segment of Bosnian Croats disagreed with their treatment by both Bosniaks and Serbs, arguing that they're the least represented of the three main nationalities. Part of the Bosnian Croat leaders even ran over to Herzeg-Bosna and Croatia due to said dissatisfaction, which further led to the cooling of relations between Croatia and the Federation (and the brief semi-official war that ensued between the two countries until they teamed up together again in the last phase of the war).

Petike said:

Even if Herzeg-Bosna had the capability, I don't think it would side with the Federation all that much. Part of the reason why Herzeg-Bosna was set up was because a segment of Bosnian Croats disagreed with their treatment by both Bosniaks and Serbs, arguing that they're the least represented of the three main nationalities. Part of the Bosnian Croat leaders even ran over to Herzeg-Bosna and Croatia due to said dissatisfaction, which further led to the cooling of relations between Croatia and the Federation (and the brief semi-official war that ensued between the two countries until they teamed up together again in the last phase of the war).

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I know. I was wondering about their possibilities as a third side in the war...

Doesn't matter if the US decided to get involved

IMO it's impossible or at least implausible...

Petike said:

Of course, even if they pull this off, it still begs the question of "Where will the Federation-captured jets land at and operate from for the remaindeer of the war ?". Sarajevo airport is out for obvious reasons, but where else could the Federation concentrate their newly gained fixed-wing assets ?

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Nowhere. Allmost anywhere in Federation is well within range of Serbian artillery, so it would have to be in Croatia, Split most probably.

The only game-changer could be ( for obtaining the aircrafts ) larger and pretty much overt help of Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other islamic countries to the Muslims in BiH ( giving them their older aircrafts ), but that still leaves them with problems for basing. And Croatia will NOT let them base them in Croatia if:

a) Muslims will use these aircrafts against Croats in BiH

b) Muslims will not share these aircrafts with Croats on 50:50 basis...

So, basicly, impossible.

Anaxagoras said:

If the other aspects of the war are effectively unchanged, it wouldn't make too much of a difference, because the Serbs would be able to obtain fuel and spare parts for their aircraft much more easily than would the Bosnians. Not only that, but Serbian air bases were less vulnerable to attack than Bosnian ones. So the air power of the Bosnians would have been rapidly diminished.

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Not so much, considering the embargo.
But yes, for the spare parts, I presume that they had more than enough of them or could be easier to obtain, especially from Russia.

abc123 said:

Nowhere. Allmost anywhere in Federation is well within range of Serbian artillery

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Then why didn't all the Federation airbases and their inventories get completely shelled during the OTL war ? The Federation had to station those helos somewhere, you know...

Or do you mean Serbian AA artillery ?

abc123 said:

And Croatia will NOT let them base them in Croatia if:

a) Muslims will use these aircrafts against Croats in BiH

b) Muslims will not share these aircrafts with Croats on 50:50 basis...

So, basicly, impossible.

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Precisely. Whatever solution to the problem might show up, the Croats won't be it - at least not in the scenario variant we're trying to create here.

Petike said:

Then why didn't all the Federation airbases and their inventories get completely shelled during the OTL war ? The Federation had to station those helos somewhere, you know...

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Federation ( better to say HR H-B and Muslims, the Federation only came to existence formally after 1994, and in reality well in 1996- even that is for discussion, and if there were no pressure from Zagreb Croats in BiH would never really integrated into Federation ;-) ) had NO aviation of any sort ( maybe odd helicopter here and there ) untill well after the war when USA send them their old UH-1 as part of Train & Equip programme.

Well, the main issue would be what use would the airforce be in the conflict, outside of the massive and decisive effort that only NATO was able to mount.

Ground support is clearly out of question, as most lines were so close to each other to be impossible to avoide fratricide. One can potentially see the merit of gunships, but the simple ack-ack both sides had in copious quantities would be sufficient to make any such effort doomed in no time. Nature of conflict and terrain limited the usability of aircrafts.

As for basing, Federation (well to be clear, more like Republic BiH until february 1994) had a few areas in the central part, around Zenica to base planes in. This area was fairly remote and out of range of most artillery. Admittedly, there was no airport there, but something could have been improvised quickly.

Anouther trouble is availability of trained and experienced pilots. At the time of conflict with the Croats, Bosniak forces would have a lot of trouble procuring fuel, spare parts and munitions to operate the air force. Munitions problem would probably remain afterwards, unless embargo was lifted.

This thread is basically a plausibility check anyway, so I don't mind my idea getting shot down (pun intended). If the consensus is that it would be all for nothing, I'm willing to admit that it would probably be like that.