AHC: Sweden Stays a European Power
- Thread starter YamSeng
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Sweden was a result of being in a relatively stable position with everyone else in the middle of war, famine, etc. One of the biggest reasons they were involved in the 30 Years war was simply to unload their own mercenaries as to not have them ravaging their own country. Sweden Simply does not have the population to maintain a Great power status for long.
Delvestius
Banned
What about the Portuguese, the Dutch?
Population isn't as much of a problem as location. Perhaps if Sweden brokered an Alliance with Russia, (Ingria in exchange for military and trade alliances) they could be in a better position to Colonize, like they did for a short while.
I beg to differ. The Netherlands did not have much of a population, yet it was a powerful force to be reckoned with until the Napoleonic Wars.
What broke Sweden and toppled it from its position of power was its wars with Russia. These wars were long and costly, and if they can either be avoided or won, Sweden will likely remain a strong European power. And I think that's the thing, if Russia ascends, Sweden has to fall.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
I can think of Sweden integrating Brandenburg and Prussia into its orbit though.
Well, simply by being in the geographic location they are and having the power they do, Denmark and Russia are going to be rivals, that seems difficult to stop. Poland-Lithuania is unfriendly as well. Perhaps the answer, if there is one, does lie in a close alliance with Brandenburg-Prussia, due to having the same enemies. Maybe leading to a personal union down the road if they play their cards right.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
A dynastic union between the Prussian House of Hohenzollerns and the Swedish House of Vasa might be in the cards though, but other than that, what other dynastic union within these two countries could have emerged?
That was basically what I meant. Between the two of them, they might be able to subdue the Danes and control the Baltic sea in the process. Still, that does leave Sweden with the problem of the Russian juggernaut, for which they will remain a juicy target, I suppose.
Sweden was able to utilise all of the country's resources towards the goals of the realm with a strong bureaucracy and a weak nobility that rarely protested. Combined with rich neighbors being exceedingly weak, and helped along with the only significant source of copper in Europe and great portions of luck, this meant a strong military could be maintained through parasitism. With Russia and Germany ascendant, though, the end to such an arrangement looks like a given.
The Great Northern War
I believe this is what we should all be looking at to determine how Sweden can stay a great power.
Evidently, there was an opportunity for the Swedes to take St. Petersburg in 1706. There were also several other chances. The war, especially at the beginning, was very close. From what I read, it looks like the Swedes just couldn't handle a long, protracted war with Russia. If they can make a swift, decisive victory, perhaps they can maintain their position as a power, as well as keep Poland-Lithuania around as an ally.
Also, Peter the Great offered a peace in 1709, but Sweden refused and launched an invasion during one of the harshest winters in European history. So, bad luck there certainly sealed Sweden's fate after that decision.
I believe this is what we should all be looking at to determine how Sweden can stay a great power.
Evidently, there was an opportunity for the Swedes to take St. Petersburg in 1706. There were also several other chances. The war, especially at the beginning, was very close. From what I read, it looks like the Swedes just couldn't handle a long, protracted war with Russia. If they can make a swift, decisive victory, perhaps they can maintain their position as a power, as well as keep Poland-Lithuania around as an ally.
Also, Peter the Great offered a peace in 1709, but Sweden refused and launched an invasion during one of the harshest winters in European history. So, bad luck there certainly sealed Sweden's fate after that decision.
PoeFacedKilla
Banned
I'm afraid by the Great Northern it was too late; Karl XII was one of the most competent military leaders of his time but such a large coalition would be impossible for any country to overcome especially in a protracted war.
Instead look at the Second Northern War during which time Sweden basically gave rise to the Kingdom of Prussia by helping the Brandenburger's gain sovereignty over Ducal Prussia, even though the Prussian Estates would rather have become a Swedish Dominion. Only to have the Brandenburger's turn around and help Poland push them out and end in the almost status quo.
And then France forced Sweden too invade Brandenburg during the Franco-Dutch War and the Great Elector rapidly pushed the Swedes out ending their reign as the "Invincible Swedes." France ended its alliance after the Great Sleigh Drive and the end of Sweden as a Great Power was almost assured.
Do you happen to have a source for the Prussian estates wanting to become a Swedish dominion?
So, in order for the Swedes to have a shot, they should either keep Ducal Prussia for themselves and/or somehow stop the Brandenburgers from switching sides. Also, if a Russian attack on Sweden can be stopped, that would be all that much the better. Now, this following scenario would presuppose IMO that Poland-Lithuania gets thrown under the bus. Say, the Swedes quit while they are ahead post-Deluge and keep the Baltics and Ducal Prussia, while Royal Prussia and parts of Poland go to Brandenburg. The Russians take the eastern part of the Commonwealth in the meanwhile. Would such a resolution lead to Brandenburg and Sweden remaining allies against Russia (seeing as such a showdown seems inevitable)? Or would they covet possessions the other has?
PoeFacedKilla
Banned
its from the Great Electors "Fatherly Instruction" to Fredreich I.
Yes, and also maybe ending the war against Poland in exchange for an alliance to help whats left of Poland regain its territory from Russia.
The thing is, Russia can be beat. The Swedes have done it and so have the Poles. They simply just have much larger armies (which are usually of poorer quality) and can replinish their forces faster. All it takes is a rapid and decisive war to break Russia the only problem is she rises again and again, so creating a system of alliances would be good.
oh and DON'T get rid of the Franco-Swedish alliance.
Neither one was a Great Power for more than a Century. Just like Sweden, Swedens only real advantage is its resources and the fact that conscription is almost a part of its culture.
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Incognito
Banned
Sweden defeats Russia in the Great Northern War, acquiring hegemony over Central and Eastern Europe. Maybe have Peter the Great be butterflied away to help with Sweden hegemony. Seems "simple" enough.
Heh. Kind of what Saudi Arabia is doing with its own jihadists today (or so I have heard).
I think a good bet would to nip Muscovy/Russia in the bud. Maybe a boyars revolt against Ivan the Terrible. Followed by a series of succession and civil wars (of which there were loads anyway) which results in a permanently disunited Russia. Different "Russias" in say Moscow, Vladimir, Kiev etc. Plus a strong Poland/Lithuania and a lingering Mongol threat thats Russia done.
Sweden can then control Finland and the East Baltic and concentrate on expansion in n. Germany.
Sweden can then control Finland and the East Baltic and concentrate on expansion in n. Germany.
Still I think by that point Russia will rise eventually. And even a medium strength Russia will be enough of a distraction to prevent Sweden from achieving its aims elsewhere in my opinion.
Incognito
Banned
Given what happened to China or Indian kingdoms or any of the other fairly-powerful nations that nevertheless lagged behind European powers in terms of tech? I doubt a Peter-less Russia would be much of an obstacle.