OK.
Did Mac ever actually visit Korea? I suppose he did... Him getting up in the front lines is in character; he did it several times during WW II.
Anyway, this is the PoD, right?
yes, that is the POD. ITTL, the North korean marksman has more luck and shoots MacArthur in the face.
Say what?
There will not be a ROK commander of the UN forces.
Nor is it practical for ROK forces to be in the lead. They don't have the mechanization, they don't have the troop quality, they don't have the logistical organization, they don't have the supplies. The ROK has just been stomped on and run over. They have hung on and are fighting remarkably well, considering. But it's basically all they can do to field reasonably effective leg infantry that can hold ground or walk forward. OK, a few small elite units, but very small.
In multiple sources, it states that after the landing in Inchon the ROK forces were "gaining territory so fast the UN forces were behind them". This is what I meant. Maybe a bit bigger than small elite units, but as you stated probably not the bulk of the ROK army.
Why does Kim agree to a cease fire when he's not being exterminated?
If the UN is not going to push up to the Yalu, Kim is just going to try to rebuild there and leave the front in place - a de facto cease fire, but not de jure.
And are there no Chinese forces over the Yalu?
Sure, it will be a de facto ceasefire- but I do not know how that will be stated in a treaty. the Korean Armistice Agreement seems a good model to go after.
After the treaty is signed, I tried to mean that the amassed Chinese forces will be back to normal state, with no large army units right on the opposite bank of the Yalu.
The US has been supplying the ROK for months. Remember that Korea isn't a fully developed country and that nearly all of the south was overrun by the NorKs, who IIRC wrecked everything they didn't steal. ROK can't provision its forces.
I do not understand what you meant by this. Not that I dont agree, I just dont know what you mean and would need some explanation. What I tried to emphasize here is that, on the ruins of the Korean War, the US was using all its supplies to help the South Koreans both economically stable and militarily self-sustainable in the long run. The supplies that helped the Japanese boom IOTL is being used in South Korea ITTL.
I don't see this. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
Are the UN forces going to be so slack, only a few months after a NorK sneak attack, that they get caught sleeping by a second NorK sneak attack? And get all beat up by weaker NorK forces despite being much stronger themselves?
Because there is no way that Kim can rebuild his army to anything like its prewar strength in a few months in half the country, and there are a lot more UN troops now than there were US troops in June 1950,
IOTL, the guerrilla troops in ROK asked Kim for supplies and help. Too often the message simply did not arrive and was misinterpreted. Due to the complicated matter of decoding, interpretation and comprehension, it was not a stretch to imagine what would've happened if Kim falsely thought his guerrilla forces were doing well and were recruiting large numbers of South Koreans under its wing.
I would know, my grandmother's family almost went with the guerrilla forces into the mountains believing they would win.
Why Kim believed he should attack as soon as possible was because, with the Chinese and Soviets supporting from behind, he should try to make negotiations more to his favour and gain territory at least to the 38th parallel. And try to make this possible by having a large number of UN forces as POW. ITTL with delayed negotiations the NorKs kill all their POW, causing enrage and casus belli for the ROK forces to attack into North Korea. The original US forces that fought in Korea had left, as the US president wanted "the American boys to come back home".
What others said: Mao isn't giving Kim anything except maybe three hots and a cot.
sure. bad luck losing for Kim, then.
Knock-ons.
United, peaceful Korea will be economically much bigger than OTL; possibly equal to Germany.
No one is scared of the PLA.
Major repercussions for Vietnam. Possibly North Vietnam decides not to send NVA regulars into the South. It would justify a US/SVN invasion of the North, which is not deterred by Chinese threat; NVN decides not to risk it.
The 1952 US election is different - Truman doesn't have Korea as a millstone. Maybe he runs again.
Could ITTL be economically on par with IOTL Japan?
Also, how could a different Korean war change Chinese politics? would it be able to avert the Cultural Revolution?
What would Chiang Kai-shek do about a situation like this, where his ally (Rhee) successfully won the war? Would he try again to attack mainland China?
Connecting the thing about no Chinese forces at the Yalu. Would this mean an earlier Sino-Soviet split or no? Would this mean an earlier Sino-Soviet border conflict?
Thanks for your help in analyzing this timeline. Anyone else who wants to comment?
