WI: Soviet Invasion of Honshu

This was influenced by this article: The bomb never beat Japan....Stalin did
So, I was wondering how would've Stalin managed to invade Honshu through whatever method- Sakhalin=>Hokkaido=>Honshu or Siberia=>Honshu, etc.
Extra points if Soviets invade Honshu before entering the Korean peninsula.
Speculations are welcome, analysis even much so!

I believe the Soviets had a chance to take Hokkaido. But Honshu... Even with Korea it is out of the question. Honshu is far from Soviet bases, which limits air support; Soviet Navy wasn't very powerful and had not enough of cargo ships and almost no landing crafts necessary for a large scale invasion; preparing such an operation would take a lot of time and resources - and Americans would have attacked earlier.
IMHO the only even remotely realistic scenario is this: America invades Japan in 1946. A week after American invasion Soviets attack Hokkaido.Since Japanese forces are concentrated against American attack, Soviet paratroopers and naval infantry manage to capture a few small ports in the north of the island and bring first infantry and then mechanized forces, all under the cover of Soviet air force operating from Sakhalin. With their armour ashore the Red Army manages to secure Hokkaido relatively easy.
Meanwhile American marines and soldiers fight bloody battle against most of Japanese Army. Losses on both sides are terrifying, especially in case of the Japanese. American forces push slowly forward.
Stalin orders to attack Honshu from Hokkaido as soon as possible. But it takes too long. Americans finally manage to break the Japanese front and quickly march north. Soviets hastily manage a small scale landing in northern part of Honshu, but all they have is only a small beach head. Before they can go further they are met by the Americans.
And all of that assuming the Japanese will be willing to fight really long and won't be starved to death in the meantime.
Personally I believe that whole Korea and perhaps Hokkaido is the best the Soviets can count on.

Very,Very bloody.

First of all, historians argue about the effects of the Soviet declaration of war on the Japanese surrender. Some say that the Soviets declared war on Japan just to try to get a slice of it later(Knowing that they didn't do it until an Allied victory was absolutely assured would lead me to support this view) and that it wasn't as big a factor in surrender as having two of Japan's major cities vaporized in a week and a half.(Especially because the second bomb caught Japan completely by surprise, they thought the US only had enough fissile material for one bomb, Fat Man made them wonder how much more the US had.(None, at the immediate moment, but it was a good trick.))

Anyway, the only way that it would be likely is either if the Japanese were much more trouble for the US than OTL and America desperately needed more troops to occupy Japan or if the Soviets tried to do it on their own to gobble up as much land as possible. If this was done without US approval, it could've led to serious reprisals(Those nukes weren't just meant to frighten the Japanese), especially if it happened between 46 and 49 and led to a wider US-Soviet war.

Also, the Soviets had no experience with large-scale amphibious assault at this time.

Overall: Possible, given the scenarios, but incredibly costly for all involved.

The Soviets would need American Lend-lease to give them Troop and Cargo Transports among with LSTs, LVSTs, LSMs in order to move even One Soviet Infantry Divisions...

I believe that in OTL the American Lend-lease program had given the Soviets some of these types of ships in order for them to invade South Sakhalin Is. and wrest the island away from the Imperial Japanese Army forces there... so...

The Imperial Japanese Airforce and whatever IJN Submarines will undoubtedly fight hard on and over the Sea of Japan to block any Soviet Invasion Fleet plans from Vladivostok heading down towards Honshu...

zeppelinair said:

So, I was wondering how would've Stalin managed to invade Honshu through whatever method- Sakhalin=>Hokkaido=>Honshu or Siberia=>Honshu, etc.

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The task of invading Hokkaido would to have fallen on the 87th Rifle Corps and was planned to go ahead on August the 21st. However unexpectedly heavy resistance on the Russian takeover of Sakhalin meant that the Hokkaido operation was moved to August 24th or 25th. The landings would have occurred at Rumoi, and though the Soviet assault fleet could be considered rag tag in comparison to the American fleet gahering for the invasion of Kyushu, there was far less potential for Japanese resistance on Hokkaido. The Japanese had thrown everything into a decisive battle with the Americans in the south and it's likely they could carry the invasion against poorly trained civilians usually only armed with muskets, swords and spears.

This invasion of the Japanese homeland would be coming a full 2 months earlier than the planned date invasion of Kyushu, and the typhoons that year would likely delay the American attack even further, into November. It's likely that over the autumn and the winter the Soviets would have secured Hokkaido and would be ready to advance on norther Honshu. Logistical problems would be the major delay in Soviet operations by this point, similar to Manchuria, and there was little more in northern Honshu than there was in Hokkaido. As the original Americna plan was to invade Honshu in March 1946, it's likely the Soviets beat them there, if the Japanese somehow haven't surrendered yet.

Logistics will continue to delay the Soviet advance, Japanese ports were badly hammered and supplies were will largely rely on what they can land on the beaches and what they can drop by air. This sluggish advance will allow what few forces the Japanese have in the area to better defend against it, although this will be more of a nusiance by this point, the combined factors of fanatical resistance and logistical nightmare will likely ensure the Americans occupy the vast majority of the island by the time the Japanese would finally collapse, likely around April/May 1946.

Would the Soviets staying away from the Korean peninsula make them try to gain land in Honshu?
Maybe the US forces could split forces (does not need to be half; as Korea was secured only by the Japanese 17th Area Army filled with anti-Japanese Koreans, a US deployment of a flotilla may be enough, idk) and attack Northern Korea , secure forces there and start coming south. The 39th parallel as North-South border may be the result.
anyway, a smaller result expected from August storm (not full Korean peninsula) maybe makes the Soviet Union look to Hokkaido and even Honshu. Thoughts?

The Red said:

The task of invading Hokkaido would to have fallen on the 87th Rifle Corps and was planned to go ahead on August the 21st. However unexpectedly heavy resistance on the Russian takeover of Sakhalin meant that the Hokkaido operation was moved to August 24th or 25th. The landings would have occurred at Rumoi, and though the Soviet assault fleet could be considered rag tag in comparison to the American fleet gahering for the invasion of Kyushu, there was far less potential for Japanese resistance on Hokkaido. The Japanese had thrown everything into a decisive battle with the Americans in the south and it's likely they could carry the invasion against poorly trained civilians usually only armed with muskets, swords and spears.

This invasion of the Japanese homeland would be coming a full 2 months earlier than the planned date invasion of Kyushu, and the typhoons that year would likely delay the American attack even further, into November. It's likely that over the autumn and the winter the Soviets would have secured Hokkaido and would be ready to advance on norther Honshu. Logistical problems would be the major delay in Soviet operations by this point, similar to Manchuria, and there was little more in northern Honshu than there was in Hokkaido. As the original Americna plan was to invade Honshu in March 1946, it's likely the Soviets beat them there, if the Japanese somehow haven't surrendered yet.

Logistics will continue to delay the Soviet advance, Japanese ports were badly hammered and supplies were will largely rely on what they can land on the beaches and what they can drop by air. This sluggish advance will allow what few forces the Japanese have in the area to better defend against it, although this will be more of a nusiance by this point, the combined factors of fanatical resistance and logistical nightmare will likely ensure the Americans occupy the vast majority of the island by the time the Japanese would finally collapse, likely around April/May 1946.

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two things.
you mention that Manchuria was also harassed by logistical problems. could you specify what they were? maybe parallels could be brought up for the ITTL attack into Honshu.
also, how helpful would a Communist uprising in Japan be? Maybe we could pull one in Tokyo or even the southern cities. this could be helpful in increased Soviet influence over Japan.

zeppelinair said:

Would the Soviets staying away from the Korean peninsula make them try to gain land in Honshu?
Maybe the US forces could split forces (does not need to be half; as Korea was secured only by the Japanese 17th Area Army filled with anti-Japanese Koreans, a US deployment of a flotilla may be enough, idk) and attack Northern Korea , secure forces there and start coming south. The 39th parallel as North-South border may be the result.
anyway, a smaller result expected from August storm (not full Korean peninsula) maybe makes the Soviet Union look to Hokkaido and even Honshu. Thoughts?

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The Soviets and Americans had already agreed to divide Korea and both would likely have had their focus on Japan at this point. The Soviets would have known that at some point in late 1945 their advance through Manchuria would meet with the Soviet troops already in Korea, allowing them to occupy the entire peninsula, the Americans, focused on their operations against Kyushu and in the knowledge the Soviets were just occupying land they'd agreed to hand over anyway, would likely be happy to have the Soviets do the job of securing Korea for them.

zeppelinair said:

you mention that Manchuria was also harassed by logistical problems. could you specify what they were? maybe parallels could be brought up for the ITTL attack into Honshu.

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Simply put, the Soviets advanced too quickly. In two weeks they'd gained an area the size of Western Europe, and their supplies just couldn't keep up, even then the advance only stopped when supply from the air became unfeasible. An invasion of Honshu would have different concerns, namely the limited capacity of the Pacific Red Banner Fleet, rather than the rate of advance.

zeppelinair said:

also, how helpful would a Communist uprising in Japan be? Maybe we could pull one in Tokyo or even the southern cities. this could be helpful in increased Soviet influence over Japan.

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The deteriorating food situation will likely lead to some uprisings, (the Japanese predicted famine by early 1946) and a Communist revolution was a serious concern for the Japanese government. That said the insurrections would likely be localised and more malnutrition based rather than Marx, however the Soviets would certainly try and spin it as a declaration of support for the latter.

Assuming some of 'Japan' goes Red would we see a split Germany style affair (obviously on a small scale) or would Stalin trade his small gains away for other concessions from the West?

The Red said:

Simply put, the Soviets advanced too quickly. In two weeks they'd gained an area the size of Western Europe, and their supplies just couldn't keep up, even then the advance only stopped when supply from the air became unfeasible. An invasion of Honshu would have different concerns, namely the limited capacity of the Pacific Red Banner Fleet, rather than the rate of advance.


The deteriorating food situation will likely lead to some uprisings, (the Japanese predicted famine by early 1946) and a Communist revolution was a serious concern for the Japanese government. That said the insurrections would likely be localised and more malnutrition based rather than Marx, however the Soviets would certainly try and spin it as a declaration of support for the latter.

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Soviet invasion of Japan's an interesting topic, I've got stuck until dawn reading threads of the topic on here including some you've commented on The Red. Ended up reading about it through the books people had mentioned on Amazon preview till dawn ha.

Here's a photo of Rumoi, the landing site for the invasion -
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Rumoi_city_from_the_sky.jpg

This page mentions orders as to initially securing only the Island North of Rumoi (http://prokarelia.net/en/?x=artikkeli&article_id=600&author=62)

It's a nice little village (not a city till 1947), has a sheltered harbour. There are two roads from it. One hugs along the coastline North-South where Cruisers/Destroyers can intercept opposition.

The other leads inland 50km upriver to Fukugawa where it bisects the main road links between two of the three major Japanese positions at Sapporo (HQ) & Wakkani (other defenders are far over at Kushiro on the East coast), (across the straight from Sahakalin. Of note is the 'B' class - most of them were 'B' coastal defense fortress at Wakkani for the regular seeming comments in other threads about it being the logical place to invade. Pair of 11" guns in a former battleships armoured turret removed after London arms treaty limitations just to start with ) which are much further away and.. bisects the shortest rail link (the importance of which should become apparent below).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:JR_Rumoi_Main_Line_linemap.svg

It also seems to be just within the combat radius of IL-2's operating off Sahkalin.
I can start to see the thinking behind it.

Projections from ammunition supply, & the rate of casualties encountered elsewhere left one commenter on a thread here thinking the Soviets would conquer Hokkaido within 2-3 weeks.

This map in one thread was based off proposals for the division of Japan going around in American circles before the bomb was dropped. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...x-Proposed_postwar_Japan_occupation_zones.png

The more & more I look at it, a 'People's Democratic Republic of North Japan' following an Imperial Japan that doesn't surrender after the Bomb looks more & more plausible.

___
As to Communism & food.

The Strategic Bombing survey later noted that the near famines of the post-45 period could have been far worse. What grain was there needed to be transported by rail. 97% of the highways were unpaved (note above, for an invasion of Hokkaido with logistical considerations, rail seems the only effective way to move troops. Given projections from preparations for American invasion on either Honshu or Kyushu, marching seems the only other way, for those locations it was expected to take 60-90 days. Equivalent marching distances over Hokkaido look like they take over a week just to meet the beach head. Sounds like it's Home Guard vs dug in Marines/Paratroopers, maybe tanks).

The Japanese coastal transports were mostly sunk and the rest would have been sunk within weeks. There was no redundancy in the rail network, on Honshu it often ran just along the coast. There was no major planning for repairs or available materials for them, even wooden rail sleepers would have been a problem. The barges that delivered coal from Hokkaido to Honshu to run the trains were hit by Hasley's task force, were down to 18% of their original capacity. The Americans would have hit major rail links on Honshu in August and paralyzed the system. There was a four day stockpile of food.

OTL major American aid prevented starvation in Japan by Jan-Feb 1946 with it's (Japan's) collapsed harvest. A longer war with the destruction of the railways might prevent it's effective distribution even with the best of intentions (most famines result not from there being not enough food but from it not being in the right place). The shortfall would have been on the order of 40% even with starvation rations in effect. This in a country of around 100 million people.

Note domestic resistance has been crushed - the Communist agitators/ringleaders - i.e those who've actually had a go at reading Marx etc & have any kind of sophisticated understanding and organization, not the average person with Communal/Utopian notions you get in rebellions - have been rounded up & shot in the 20's by the Army. There's likely going to be rebellion as soon as the powers that be can't feed the people, but it might resemble peasant rebellions of the past or openly warring factions of the leadership. The relevant term the Americans had for the scenario was Japan 'Unraveling' rather than conducting an 'Organized Surrender'.

Some hints of American plans involved shifting the Invasion to Northern Honshu once preparations were discovered on Southern Kyushu & the Kanto Plain (+ Soviet advances).

Whether the U.S land in Kyushu or Kanto or Northern Honshu, the key seems the timing of Olympic. If the coup plotters can keep the people from rioting for food in Sept-Oct until the Typhoon/U.S landings then I think they can use the excuse of the 'divine intervention/emergency' to keep their rule going until some time in 1946. Olympic being initiated makes a Soviet invasion of Northern Honshu the following day seem likely. If they can take Hokkaido in 2-3 weeks that's about 6-7 they have to prepare for it if not get on with it.

thanks for the effort you've put into this, curiousone! your constructive analysis made me think of the plausibility of the Honshu attack with more basic knowledge..

Very well researched. Maybe you can figure out who the Russians had in mind to run their occupation zone of Japan and what sort of communist government they would impose on it. I hope they come up with someone and something that isn't as oppressive as Kim Il Sung in Noth Korea. It would certainly make for an interesting TL. Aside from the Russians almost certainly building the bridge to Sakhalin and a direct rail link to Soya Strait, I confess I have little idea what a Russian occupied and later Communist Tohuku and Hokkaido would be like and how it would skew the rest of Japan.
If the Chinese get an occupation zone in Shikoku what happens to it after the Communists takeover in the Mainland? Do the Nationalists allow a lot of Chinese immigration to a Japanese island that ITTL is a backwater and IOTL could relieve the population pressure on Taiwan?

katchen said:

Very well researched. Maybe you can figure out who the Russians had in mind to run their occupation zone of Japan and what sort of communist government they would impose on it. I hope they come up with someone and something that isn't as oppressive as Kim Il Sung in Noth Korea. It would certainly make for an interesting TL. Aside from the Russians almost certainly building the bridge to Sakhalin and a direct rail link to Soya Strait, I confess I have little idea what a Russian occupied and later Communist Tohuku and Hokkaido would be like and how it would skew the rest of Japan.
If the Chinese get an occupation zone in Shikoku what happens to it after the Communists takeover in the Mainland? Do the Nationalists allow a lot of Chinese immigration to a Japanese island that ITTL is a backwater and IOTL could relieve the population pressure on Taiwan?

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Following what happened IOTL in Eastern Europe it'd be some local patsy they installed (note not a survivor of an indigenous communist movement, those guys get quietly purged as being capable of organizing nationalist resistance to orders from Moscow). The qualities of the Communist regimes tended to reflect the development of the societies they were based off. I'm guessing North Japan would reflect a similar distance to South Japan as East and West Germany did - although there's plenty of Japan's coal in the North so maybe for the first decade or so of reconstruction they'll do better. Especially if there's no Korean War & American expenditure to drive things on the Westernized Japanese side (think of it, a Communist state being richer than it's neighbouring Capitalist state).

The U.S is still a Naval power, still has supremacy around the bomb by 1949 (or likely earlier given further Soviet advances into China from Manchuria) so when China goes Red OTL in the same way Taiwan is insulated from Communism, so is Shikoku. Immigration, population pressure? It's an interesting one. There's a lot of bad blood from the war, OTL the Japanese still have racially restrictive immigration policies to this day. I can see some friction there. No doubt the Chinese will remind the local population of their position at every opportunity. Maybe it'll be a foci for multi-cultural rapproachment, force acknowledgement of Japanese war crimes, the apologia for which will smooth cultural relations by the present day. Maybe instead Japanese refugees will be crossing the inland sea to add pressure on the rest of South Japan.

Japan probably won't be so pacifist in the early cold war in this timeline. The W/Allies knew they couldn't pull something like the Morgenthau plan on W/Germany because they needed her industry & army to help face down what became the Warsaw Pact. So the Southern-JSDF will have some beef, favouring a mechanized army staring over the border.

Could a botched Operation Downfall ever enable Soviets to control all 4 main Japanese islands? With the help of an internal Communist revolution.

The Mahnovite said:

Could a botched Operation Downfall ever enable Soviets to control all 4 main Japanese islands? With the help of an internal Communist revolution.

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I don't think so. Soviet sealift capacity was still small, still only what the U.S gave them. The Soviets won't want an internal Communist revolution in Japan. If they come across one they'll crush it.

The U.S didn't flinch from infantry casualties throughout the war despite it being the Japanese strategy. However much they lose on Kyushu which could be the worst place to invade they'll inevitably take it once they start. If the Soviets eventually made headway on Honshu beyond the North into the areas the Americans wanted, after the Americans had put off an invasion because of casualties on Kyushu? They'd just jump in as soon as the Japanese started crumbling. Taking either Shikoku or Kyushu would seem to necessitate taking Honshu first from the Soviet vantage point.

The Americans might ask to base B-29's off Hokkaido for support for an invasion on Honshu. If not depending on production rates, they might just avoid Kyushu & go for support from B-36's from Okinawa in '46 for an assault on Honshu.

zeppelinair said:

This was influenced by this article: The bomb never beat Japan....Stalin did
So, I was wondering how would've Stalin managed to invade Honshu through whatever method- Sakhalin=>Hokkaido=>Honshu or Siberia=>Honshu, etc.
Extra points if Soviets invade Honshu before entering the Korean peninsula.
Speculations are welcome, analysis even much so!

Click to expand...

More or less impossible. The Soviets had nowhere near the necessary sea lift to pull it off. Even Hokkaido would be a huge stretch, and would only be possible if the war up until August 1, with the USN having utterly obliterated the IJN, American invasions having pushed Japan all the way back to the Home Islands and the USAAF having burned a good part of urban Japan to the ground.

Without the U.S. having more or less strangled the Empire, there would be no way for the Soviets to cross the Sea of Japan. If the U.S. had reached that point, there is no way the U.S. allows the Red Army to cross to Honshu. It is worth keeping in mind that the most powerful ship in the Soviet Pacific Fleet was a light cruiser (and that the entire Pacific Fleet surface combat component consisted of two fairly elderly light cruisers and 10 destroyers along with light forces). That is hardly enough of a force to even think about making an opposed landing.

CalBear said:

More or less impossible. The Soviets had nowhere near the necessary sea lift to pull it off. Even Hokkaido would be a huge stretch, and would only be possible if the war up until August 1, with the USN having utterly obliterated the IJN, American invasions having pushed Japan all the way back to the Home Islands and the USAAF having burned a good part of urban Japan to the ground.

Without the U.S. having more or less strangled the Empire, there would be no way for the Soviets to cross the Sea of Japan. If the U.S. had reached that point, there is no way the U.S. allows the Red Army to cross to Honshu. It is worth keeping in mind that the most powerful ship in the Soviet Pacific Fleet was a light cruiser (and that the entire Pacific Fleet surface combat component consisted of two fairly elderly light cruisers and 10 destroyers along with light forces). That is hardly enough of a force to even think about making an opposed landing.

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Out of curiosity; if the war continues long enough for the USSR to even consider assaulting Hokkaido, would the same facts on the ground prevent the USSR capturing Hokkaido?

Zmflavius said:

Out of curiosity; if the war continues long enough for the USSR to even consider assaulting Hokkaido, would the same facts on the ground prevent the USSR capturing Hokkaido?

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Assuming the idea doesn't send Truman into orbit?

Assuming that (and since Truman is reputed to have told Stalin that if one "Russian" soldier set foot on the Home Islands he would drop a nuclear weapon down the Kremlin's chimney, that is a big assumption) and accepting that the Japanese make the same dispositions that they made in anticipation of the American invasion, which BTW, were extremely accurate, the Soviets might have ben able to pull it off.

The Soviets apparently had a plan for invading Hokkaido (which makes sense, since it seems like every country on Earth has a plan for invading each other). The weakness of it was that they looked at the crossing from Sakhalin to Hokkaido to be nothing but an bigger version of a river crossing. That is simply not the fact, since it is a 26 mile voyage across some REALLY nasty seas that would swamp anything but true ocean going vessels or off shore fishing boats (even WW II LSTs would be a pain in those waters). There would be no way to provide artillery coverage, and Soviet aircraft had very short legs. The invading forces would be very much on their own.

The good news is that the IJA and IJN had moved just about everything to Kyushu to oppose Olympic. Their deployments, and overall lack of fuel, combined with American destruction of the transport network on both Kyushu and Honshu (such as it was) would mean that the Red Army invaders would have had to face minimal kamikaze attack either by aircraft or boats. They would also have been facing mostly militia, along with some combat ineligibles (mostly damaged vets) with only a few regular formations, all of which would be light on heavy weapons. Once they made it ashore in any sort of numbers, even with light tanks the Red Army should have been able to roll up the Japanese forces. Soviet losses would likely have been far heavier than would be expected given what happened in Manchuria, but Stalin never really gave a damn about losses.