The Strongest Italy I Could Manage

Point of Divergence takes place in the mid-1840s. Minor changes make the army of the Kingdom of Sardinia-Piedmont slightly more prepared for war.

The King of Sardinia-Piedmont at the time was Carlo Alberto, one of the more liberal monarchs in Europe and an Italian patriot. In 1848 he agreed to a constitution and declared war on Austria in an attempt to drive them from the Peninsula. In this timeline fortunate weather, luck, and Austrian incompetence turn the resulting battle from a loss into an overwhelming Sardinian (though they're already calling it Italian) victory.

The rest of Europe is too busy dealing with its own revolutions to bother with Italy's. The Sardinian military supports a march of nationalist irregulars down the boot, and in most places are invited in. In 1850 the Kingdom of Italy officially comes into being. It has not had to cede Savoy or Nice to France, or wait on annexing Rome, and the southern third of the Tyrol (half what they have OTL) is already incorporated. Carlo Alberto I, King of Italy, dies in the first year of his reign.

Uninterested in garnering the goodwill of France, the Italians ignore the Crimean War. Instead the new king Victor Emmanuel II decides to take advantage of the distraction in Europe to build Italy a colonial empire to match that of France. In 1855 Italy goes to war with the Beylik of Tunis. Though suffering from a severely disorganized army - soldiers from one end of the country can usually not understand those from the other - the city is captured the next year. The interior will not really be pacified until a decade later.

A continent away, the Whig party makes a fair recovery before declining in the face of the upstart "Republicans." A Democrat is elected in 1860. The 1864 and 1868 elections are close and divisive and congress ends up assigning the presidency to compromise candidates. War breaks out with Spain in 1874 and leads to American annexation of Cuba and Puerto Rico.

In 1866, the Prussians and Austrians go to war over the leadership of Germany. As in OTL, Bismarck manages to get the Italians to help him. They manage to do better, as the army has had time to enact some reforms, and Italy is in general much stronger (it already has Venice and Rome). The result of the war is the same, except that Italy's spoils are Istria and the Dalmatia - Austria's entire coastline. This is significant for a number of reasons, but one of the most important is this: Italy's only remaining claims are on what is currently French soil.

The Spanish succession doesn't come up in time to spark the Franco-Prussian War, but Bismarck wants one, so he finds an excuse. In 1878 Prussia and its ally Italy are at war with France. The war is notably less disastrous for France in its early stages, but a grinding series of battles takes the Prussians to Paris and the Italians to Marseilles. The war is over, Paris Commune aside. Germany is officially recognized in Versailles. Italy is given Algeria along with Corsica, and revanche is not just a German problem.

In the long years of peace, Italy becomes much more closely entangled in the alliance system. Italy comes to rely on its mutual defensive pact with Germany and Austria-Hungary, especially as, unlike Germany, it would probably lose to France in a straight fight. The Central Powers show a united Front to the world. France and Russia set up a strong alliance and Franco-British relations gradually improve.

In the 1880s Africa and the Pacific are divided up. Italy gets its OTL holdings in Eritrea and Somalia, but doesn't botch the establishment of a protectorate over Ethiopia. They also get a few piddling islands in the Pacific. In the first decade of the 1900s the Central Powers unnerve everyone. Austria-Hungary annexes Bosnia and turns Novi Pazar over to Montenegro to form a bulwark against Serbia. Italy attacks the Ottomans and siezes Libya (but not the Dodecanese). Both Germany and Italy protest increased French involvement in Morocco (it's independence had been guaranteed since 1880) and the Japanese annexation of the Philippines. Formation of the Entente in response to the percieved threat, though a blip is caused by the Russo-Japanese War. There is no Balkan War, Ottomans retain a large European foothold.

In 1903 the United States outlaws slavery, though in practice it had been largely eliminated decades before. South Carolina and Texas secede from the Union. No one cares.

In 1919 what quickly becomes known as the Great War breaks out over the French imposition of a proctectorate over Morocco. Initially it involves Britain, France, Russia on one side and Germany, Italy, and Austria-Hungary on the other. Romania and Turkey will side with the Central Powers, Belgium, the Netherlands, Bulgaria, Greece, Portugal, and Japan with the Entente. The President of the United States waffles on what to do till the war is over, deciding only to buy Alaska from Russia.

The Ottomans quickly discover they are in desperate need of military reform. They are defeated by Russia and only saved in Europe by the intervention of the Austro-Hungarians. The Germans hold more of France by virtue of Italian involvement, but Italy itself can't get much across the French border. Early in 1920 the Germans sally their entire fleet against the British and are amazingly lucky when the Brits send out only 11 ships to face them (this happened OTL, but the Germans didn't realize their opportunity). The result is a sudden shift in naval power, drastically slowing deployment of British forces to France.

Russia is forced out in 1921, and the French follow early the next year. Germany annexes Latvia, Estonia, Luxembourg, the Belgian Congo, Angola, and the remains of French Lorraine. Austria-Hungary takes Bessarabia and Poland. Lithuania (including a big chuck of Belarusia), Finland, the Netherlands, and Belgium are set up as puppet states of Germany. Italy wins Egypt, Malta, as well as French and British Somaliland. The Ottomans are the big losers, despite overrunning Bulgaria, Greece, and the Caucasus they recieve only Aden and Cyprus. Radical politics quickly overpower reasoned discourse in Istanbul. Morocco retains its independence.

Algeria and Tunisia are by now as Italian as Sicily or Dalmatia, at least officially. Libya and Ethiopia are being gradually filled with naturalized-citizen locals and European immigrants.

Russia oscillates between moderate, yet incompetent socialisms until a strongman takes power in 1937. It should go without mentioning that this is bad for the Jews. In 1938 the Ottoman Empire, it's military freshly renovated, invades Persia and Oman. By 1942, Russia is demanding return of the Belarusian portions of Lithuania and the Germans agree to buy time for rearmament. The new war breaks out in 1943 as Russia and Turkey declare war on the Central Powers.

Romania quickly comes in on the side of the Russians, but most countries given the choice go the other way. Britain and Japan go to war with Russia and Turkey in 1944. Sweeping tank battles in Hungary and Poland go horribly wrong for the Central Powers. Berlin is encircled in late 1945. France declares war on Germany in less than a week. Sudden German collapse. Italy fights a grinding retreat through the mountains of southern Germany and the Balkans.

The relatively quick successes of the hostile powers come to an end as Britain and Italy remain free and quite willing to donate large quantities of high explosive as airfreight. Rather ruthless tactics turn world opinion against them, and finally in June 1946 the United States declare war on the Petrograd Pact, as it has become known. Combined with the first use of the British nuclear bomb in 1948, the war is a foregone conclusion.

After the United States, and perhaps Japan, Italy benefits the most from the ensuing war, gaining French West Africa, Cyprus, Palestine, and Syria. The USA become the dominant world power, prevented only by decentralization from truly ruling it, and gets French Guyana besides. Japan wins for itself Sakhalin, Indochina, and Siberia south of the Amur River. Germany gets French Equatorial Africa, and Britain Madagascar. Russia and Turkey are stripped to their ethnic constituents (pretty much like OTL borders, actually).

The first Italian nuclear weapon is exploded in the Sahara in 1953.

And we go from there, eh?
 
Yes, but mostly from the south at first. Austria-Hungary is never entirely overrun, though Vienna falls, so it's the logical route. When the landings come they are in Belgium, then in Provence.

Of course, what with the Russian conquest, Russian occupation, bombing campaigns - including some nuclear weapons, and reconquest, Germany is a tad worse for wear.
 
In 1903 the United States outlaws slavery, though in practice it had been largely eliminated decades before. South Carolina and Texas secede from the Union. No one cares.

This seems very unlikely, both that they would secede, and that 'no one would care.'

Other then that, it's an interesting TL, although I don't see how Italy would benefit so much from the war, as significant amounts of fighting happened in it's highly developed northern territories.
 
Italian-A-H animosity

I doubt that you will be able to get A-H and Italy into the same bed as it were during the Grt War you are proposing....

they are going to be torn by their revanchist attitudes towards Italy and their Rivalry with Russia in the Balkans.

they are likely to neutral in the conflict. Germany was able to form its alliance with A-H because the terms of the of the 1866 conflict were not onerous and Germany needed them as an ally. Here you have stripped vast terr. from the Austro-Hungarians.

Not to denigrate the value of Poland or Bessarabia, I think the Austro-Hungarians would prefer to at least undo some of the damage to them in there initial war with Italy before they would consider any alliance that contained them. The Italians wouldn't do it so why would the A-H's. The Italians and A-H would have to compromise to make that possible. Dalmatia, Rijeka and part of Istria would have to be returned I think. Otherwise I think the A-H would likely find an accomodation that they could agree with from the Russians in the Balkans so that they could pursue a rematch with the Italians.

Hmm...France/Britain/A-H and Russia vs Italy/Germany and the Ottomans.

No contest really and definitely no need for the Americans to become involved as the Quadruple Entente will almost certainly finish the Triple Alliance by 1916 at the latest, if not sooner. More likely this Grt war does not even occur as the Germans will not be keen to chance it.
 
very nice!!
like the way you let the action happen somewhere else (ottomans) in order to achieve your goal. The ottomans of course could have bought their strength with oil.

but the italians. do they have a history of phsics in order to get the bomb? probably they can harbour some german scientists, fleeing from antisemitsm.

but still you have the problem of a strong feeling of italianism. otherwise it is going to be difficult.....
 
Went on Spring Break immediately after writing this...

Yossarian: South Carolina had been threatening secession since the 1780s and Texas did it the last time a country they were in outlawed slavery on them. They were also the only overwhelmingly pro-secession states in OTL. As to nobody caring, I extrapolated from the initial reaction to the secession in OTL. The USA and CSA initially had rather cordial relations, and for a short while it looked very much like there would be no war. In this TL, the rebel states are much more aware of their vulnerability, and go to great lengths to avoid any provocation to the USA. The American president is also less sure of his direction than Lincoln, so there aren't systematic efforts to provoke a war.

I expect South Carolina would eventually come crawling back. Texas could do well on its own but could easily end up in a war with Mexico, which the US would intervene in to maintain the status quo.

Aurora: You're mostly correct - Bismarck did impose only a relatively light peace. And yes, this was done to keep the Austrians from becoming bitter about the situation. It's your comparison of OTL's and TTL's terms that I take issue with.

Though Venetia may appear to be a tiny little spot on the map of Europe, it is anything but. At the time of the war, it was one of the most industrialized places on the Continent, and certainly Austria's most commercially valuable province. By comparison, what are Istria and Dalmatia? Pretty much just empty coastline, with a few piddling ports. Inhabited, incidentally, by Slovenes, Croats and Italians.

If the Hapsburgs were inclined towards revanchism we would have noticed it in OTL. Where were the calls to arms to reclaim Belgium? They'd lost Silesia and eventually rule of Germany to Prussia - things massively more important to the Empire and its historic identity. Istria and Dalmatia were only annexed during the Napoleonic Wars - and they were taken from Venice. Go back not so long before that and they were Ottoman territory. The only emotional value in the situation is the total lost of a coastline, but honestly, what is that next to the loss of all Germany?

Another thing: Prussia had to give the Italians something in OTL, because they were an ally - even though they performed rather miserably. The same holds true in this TL, except that the Italians performed substantially better. They have to be given something real.

The Austrians despise it, but what can they do really? Russia is a threat to the long term existence of the empire. The Russians are going to go into the Balkans no matter what happens, and this is unavoidably onerous to the Hapsburgs. The Austrians accept being the weaker partner to their victorious archnemesis, with barely a mention of the fact that the situation regarding Italy has changed simultaneously.

P. Ledyard: Thank you.

Alayta: In regards to the bomb, I think its quite doable. Italy lost some good scientists to America because of Fascism in our TL. Moreover, it is more stable, commerically successfull, and populous, all things that tend to mean a better position in the sciences. And if the Soviets can do it in the space of a few years (while holding a policy that the Theory of Relativity was nonsense because it was un-Marxist) I'm quite confident Italy could too - in these circumstances.
 
So many? There was always a trickle of immigrants from (mostly southern) Europe into North Africa. Some of the major ones were Italians going to Tunis and French to Algeria. That's little changed in this TL.

The biggest changes are that a lot of Italians are emigrating to the colonies rather than the New World. Italy is overall in better shape economically and socially, so fewer feel the need to leave. Italian nationalist emigrants would rather stay "in" Italy if possible. Besides this, Tunis and Algeria are pretty convenient and developed as sites for colonization go. Especially compared with the OTL alternatives: Eritrea and Somaliland. Even in our timeline there was a steady rise in European settlement to Libya - not the most hospitable of places - before it was lost in WWII.

All that said, the main thing is that Italy is gradually extending "naturalized citizenship" status to locals who learn fluent Italian and/or convert to Christianity.
 
We could try to arrange it much earlier. The Spanish Hapsburgs in their last century led Spain on a catastrophic roller coaster to oblivion yet somehow the empire held together until the death of Charles the Sufferer. However, there were revolts in Italy and careful planning in Savoy(later Sardinia) and France was always interested in what went on in Spanish holdings.

In one case a revolt in Catalonia took 12 years to subdue and only was put down because the French had a revolt of their own to divert them!

If some arrangement could be worked out between the Papacy and a suitable royal house one might see a united Italy emerge in the mid-17th Century and expand from their, especially at Spain's expense.
 
An interesting POD is in the 1st war of Morea (1684-1699). Venice, fighting against the Ottomans in alliance with Austria, Poland and the Papal States was overall quite successful, and enjoyed a complete dominance in the Aegean, thanks to the complete renewal of the fleet (which was now based on sail ships, rather than galleys). However (for a series of reason: mainly the poor health of their great admiral, Francesco Morosini, but also for some bad luck or bad judgement by some of the lesser admirals and commander) venice was not completely successful: in the end the gained just Morea, a portion of Dalmatia and the ionian islands, but Negroponte, Chios and Crete were almost within their grasps. Let's assume that Morosini enjoys a better health, and that the venetians are a bit more lucky: at the peace of Carlowitz, they have almost regained their colonial empire.
The war of spanish succession goes as per schedule: the Savoys perform as in OTL, and at the end of the war they gain the kingdom of Sicily.
In 1714, when the Ottomans come back for another round, venice is not just allied with Austria: the Savoys join the alliance, and their army - ferried from Sicily to the Greek mainland - is quite successful. When the dust settles, Albania, Epyrus and Cyprus have been conquered, as well as most of the islands in the Aegean sea, including Rhodes. In 1718, Charles Emmanuel of Savoy is King of Sicily, King of Epyrus, King of Cyprus (there was even an ancient and tenuous claim on the cypriot crown), duke of Achaia (another ancient claim), Duke of Savoy and Prince of Piedmont. Quite an improvement.
Venice is again mistress of the Aegean, and has gained the esclusive right to commerce in the Black sea.

The increasing flow of commerce in the Eastern and Central Mediterranean brings almost automatically an increase in piracy. In 1735, a joint operation is arranged by Savoy, Venice and the knights of Malta. The barbary pirates are hunted in their ports, and destroyed. Tunis and Oran are occupied.

At the death of emperor Charles, the war of Austrian succession starts. The Savoys - who are still kings of Sicily, no exchange with Sardinia in TTL - are much more friendly to Austria (and much less to France and Spain). The Italian portion of the war is handled much better in TTL, with closer coordination between the Austrian and Piedmontese armies. Venice fleet is very useful in securing dominance in the Thyrrenian sea, supported by the British fleet. Genoa (ally of Spain) is occupied by the allies; an expedition force takes easily bot Sardinia (spanish) and Corsica (genoese, but with french garrisons). The combined Venetian and British fleets defeat the Spanish off Catalonia, and occupy the Balearic islands. In TTL the Spanish-Neapolitan armies are less effective (no contingents from Sicily): the Savoys force the landing in Calabria and march north, to joing with austrian troops at the siege of Naples. At the peace table, the ancient republic of Genoa is deleted from the map: the austrians gain the Eastern riviera, and the Piedmontese the western one, with Genoa itself; the kigdom of Naples is given to Marie Therese, but Piacenza, Pavia, Corsica and Sardinia are awarded to the Savoys. Venice is confirmed in possession of the Balearic islands (except Minorca, which becomes a British base), of the ports of Ceuta and Melilla in Northern Morocco (taken from the Spanish at the end of the war) and of the duchy of Mantua.

Now the 7 years war (or TTL equivalent) will come for sure: the French are quite pissed, and will go for a return match with the British. The Spanish are very unhappy too: in 50 years they have been completely kicked out of Italy.
Austria has performed better than in OTL, gaining Naples. However, in TTL both Venice and Savoy are the true net gainers, and I anticipate that they will be in the war. Any taker for the Lion of St. Mark being raised in Havana?
 

Faeelin

Banned
It's ineresting, but how long would it take the Serenissma and Savoy to be at each other's throats?
 
It depends. There is also Austria to keep in the equation (and in my view, a stronger Austrian presence in Italy - in TTL Marie Therese is also Queen of Naples - would do wonders to keep Savoy and Venice friendly). Later in the future, who knows? Venice has traditionally been flexible in everything but the traditional form of government of the city: I would not be excluding completely the dogal title passing to the Savoy line, with guarantees for the traditional freedoms of the city (something similar to the changes in the United Provinces). Or, looking from the other side, Savoy-Piedmont becoming republican (the influence of Genoa would be strong, as well as the republican influences from Geneve). Or you might have a federation. After all, the 18th century brought Illuminism, the Enciclopedy, the American revolution and the French one, in OTL: I might tell you that there will not be a Napoleon here :D Not with a POD 70 years before his birth. OTOH, I'm not so sure about the two revolutions: IMO, the forces driving them are not so easily re-directed.
 
Hrm. I thought about starting that sort of way - it obviously would make possible a much stronger Italy - but I didn't know enough about the period to know where to start. Of course, if you really want to top out Italy's strength you just look at the old timeline Last Gasp of Byzantium (by Faeelin?) where Venice pretty much ends up owning the world.

One advantage of a later POD - to my mind at least - is that you get to play with your pet project in a recognizable setting. Which is not to say I do not enjoy really divergent timelines from time to time...
 
Damn. I had a nice big post and the internet wolves seem to have eaten it.

I'm going to go over this timeline again. I think there's a lot to add. I've lived in Italy almost 7 months now, actually know its history independent of TLs from the board and Wikipedia, and anyway, I'm pretty sure my original POD was rubbish. Plus I want to explore the backdrop a bit more rather than focusing only on Italy.

Thoughts, comments, and advice are welcome throughout.

PS - The goal here is what I suppose you kids are calling a wank these days. Still, I don't think I'll be pushing plausibility terribly hard. To spell it out, I'm trying to make the largest and strongest Italian state I can manage, without making the result unrecognizable.

The latter part is why this timeline doesn't have [insert city state] in possession of Brazil and Korea by 1810.
 

Faeelin

Banned
Hrm. I thought about starting that sort of way - it obviously would make possible a much stronger Italy - but I didn't know enough about the period to know where to start. Of course, if you really want to top out Italy's strength you just look at the old timeline Last Gasp of Byzantium (by Faeelin?) where Venice pretty much ends up owning the world.

Actually, the end La Serenissima was hardly the greatest power.

It was pretty ridiculous, although not bad for a 15/16 year old.
 
Well, I can't say I ever got around to finishing the thing. I keep going back to it, but I'm not used to reading threads backwards anymore. :)
 
I liked the TL, and I don't recall any overt problems, at least with the POD.

What's wrong with it?

Just b/c the US enters the war and the Brits have the bomb does not necessarily mean the war is a "foregone conclusion." The number of nukes might be very small and the number of Russian armies and hardpoints very large.

You might end up with some kind of compromise peace rather than a triumphant march to Petrograd, especially if the Russians come up with wonder-weapons of their own.
 
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