Valena said:
The child's formation years will be under influence of Richelieu, not Mazarin (considering both Richelieu and Louis XIII die on schedule)
Mazarin could still have bits of influence on the education of the boy: if born in 1631, TTL Louis XIV* would be no older than 12 when he comes on the throne. Mazarin could thus put finishing touches and still serve as Prime Minister during TTL Louis XIV's early years.
However, it's most certainly sure that Richelieu and Louis XIII will play a major role in the education of TTL Louis XIV if he is born in 1631. Which will necessarilly have an impact on his personnallity.
*I'm pretty sure Louis would be the most likely name given to him.
Valena said:
Gaston D'Orleans will try to betroth his daughter (OTL Grande Mademoiselle) to *Louis probably soon after his birth. Unlike OTL betrothals to Louis and Philippe, that one won't be weighed down by 10+ age difference.
It will still suffer from the opposition between Louis XIII and his brother: Gaston was always at the center of the intrigues against his brother and both Louis XIII and Richelieu knew it. The only thing that saved Gaston (six times pardonned OTL) was the fact that he was heir to the throne at the time and as Louis XIII had no son, they couldn't afford to behead his brother.
Marrying La Grande Mademoiselle to TTL Louis XIV would still put Gaston close to power, which is probably something neither Louis XIII nor Richelieu want. La Grande Mademoiselle is also of a (slightly) lower rank than TTL Louis XIV so this could play against her. That said, she is the heiress to the colossal fortune of the Montpensier family and probably of a large part of her father's fortune, which could strenghten TTL Louis XIV's position in France. Still, I don't think she would be Louis XIII or Richelieu's first choice.
Valena said:
This one makes the Regency (brief one) even more interesting. Gaston D'Orleans will be without doubt interested in consummating the marriage of *Louis and Anne ASAP, turning it into rehash of Francis II reign AKA young King's mother VS his in-laws
I could see Gaston working his way so that Louis XIII's will is applied in this case. OTL, Anne had Parliament repel her husband's will because it was organizing a Regency council to limit her powers as Regent. Since Gaston was on the names for the the council, he could see it in his interest to support his brother's will in this scenario.
Valena said:
Considering possibility *Louis has two siblings born in 1638 and 1640 respectively (Henry, Duc D'Anjou (OTL Louis XIV) and Philippe, Duc de Berry (OTL Philippe d'Orleans) what can be marriage prospects for them? I can see TTL Marie-Theresa of Spain wed to her cousin, Ferdinand, King of Romans, circa 1652, Henry may marry Margarita Violante of Savoy (OTL Louis bride) and Philippe is still good for Henriette-Anne of England.
Henri (OTL Louis XIV) could still marry Maria Theresa of Spain in this scenario: this was the result of peace talks with Spain remember. The Spanish might be a bit more willing to marry the eldest daughter of the King of Spain to a French prince as said prince woudln't be King (though he would still be pretty close in the succession line). Furthermore, they agreed OTL because a son was born to Philippe IV during the negociations (not Charles II of Spain but an elder brother who died young).
Valena said:
Fronde-less (or with much more limited Fronde) *Louis may interfere in ECW?
Part of the reason for the Fronde were the result of the policies of Louis XIII and Richelieu, so I'm not sure the Fronde wouldn't happen. I can agree though that it will probably be more limited as we have an older Louis XIV (12 here and not 5 when he comes on the throne) and possibly (if we go by your scenario of La Grande Mademoiselle being Queen) leading OTL "Frondeurs" in key position of power.
As for the English Civil War... It depends on how French military situation is at the time. The Thirty Years War would be over but OTL the French waged war against the Spanish until 1659 and the Peace of the Pyrenees. The war could be shorter OTL without the Fronde (or with a reduced Fronde) to mess with it but it still has to be taken into account. I still have doubts the King of France would intervene, though I could see him being supportive of the Royalist Cause in England.
Valena said:
The War against Spain could have a different outcome depending on how the absence of Fronde (or a much-reduced Fronde) would impact on it. Aside from the length, the end results could be different and the French could try to seize the Spanish Netherlands and France-comté if they can.
Valena said:
1631 was caused by accident with Duchesse De Chevrese, not 1622, AFAIR
No, it was actually in 1622 that Anne of Austria miscarried because of an accident. She was playing with her ladies-in-waiting and most notably the Duchesse de Chevreuse when she fell in the stairs. The fall resulted in Anne of Austria miscarrying her baby: this also caused a rift between her and Louis XIII as the King blamed his Queen for her imprudence and he also blamed Mme de Chevreuse (Anne of Austria's closest friend) for having encouraged Anne.
I'm also pretty sure it can't be 1631 because the Duchesse de Chevreuse had been banished from the court and was in Lorraine at the time.
Saddly, I've put the Timeline on hiatus because I'm lacking motivation to write and I'm no longer satisfired with what I had written (mostly because I've done more research). I might start over as I still have ideas regarding it on the corner of my mind but for now it will remain this way.