AHC: Carthage Wins 2PW after Cannae

John Fredrick Parker · Sep 21, 2013

Title should be self-explanatory. While it may look like an easy answer, I find the first thing that usually comes to mind ("Hannibal marches on Rome and sieges/storms it") is... well, problematic on reflection.

So, with no PoDs prior to the day following the great battle, how could Carthage have won?

Pericles · Sep 21, 2013

Hannibal's weakness was not having adequate reinforcements. Hasdrubal tried to solve this problem and invaded Italy but was defeated at Metaurus. So: no Metaurus, no Rome. Or, I suppose Carthage could survive (albeit not burn Rome) if Hannibal wins Zama and gets a fair peace.

SlyDessertFox · Sep 21, 2013

Metaurus is the POD. Let's say Nero dies early in the battle. The Roman army is crushed. Hasdrubal informs Hannibal of the situation, and now Hannibal knows that the consular army facing them is without their commander (Nero). Hasdrubal and Hannibal smash the forces that are under an inexperienced subbordinate. That's the two Roman consular armies left in Italy smashed to bits in quick succession.

The Latin Allies were already beginning to get stingy with troops, with some of them refusing to send troops. Unlike after Cannae, Rome now has a VERY serious manpower problem. More importantly, Hannibal has siege equipment and enough troops to at least make the Romans fear he has the ability to siege Rome successfully. A peace treaty that requires Rome to evacuate Spain, and hand over Sicily, Sardinia, and Corsica, seems like the likeliest outcome.

M79 · Sep 21, 2013

I think Spain and Sicily are certainly Carthaginian now, probably Sardinia and Corsica as well. Rome may keep Italy proper if the siege does not take place, a victor's justice should Rome herself fall may see southern Italy regain some measure of independence and Rome will be pushing colonists north into Gaul to rebuild. I think itsets up for a brutal (alternate) Third Punic War with a Carthaginian superpower against a Roman near-equal one to three generations later, perhaps again over Sicily. It might also permit the Carthaginians to continue exploring the African and European coasts of the Atlantic, perhaps ending in novelty or with a few isolated colonies being founded. A Carthaginian exclave on Fernando Po that becomes isolated then later colonizes into Africa centuries later could be an interesting timeline.

John Fredrick Parker · Sep 21, 2013

Pericles said:
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slydessertfox said:
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Battle of Metaurus, nearly nine years after Cannae? I'm actually a little surprised at the use of a PoD so late; does this mean, even after Cannae, that there was nothing Hannibal could do to reasonably end the war within a couple more years? Why couldn't reinforcements come sooner than over a decade after Hannibal's arrival in Italy?

SlyDessertFox · Sep 21, 2013

Well you can always have hasdrubal arrive earlier-Hannibal was expecting him to arrives since at least 211 but he delayed and then had scipio to deal with. There were other forces Carthage could have sent to them but they instead went to Spain, Sicily, and Sardinia thanks to the anti Hannibal faction. But yes, there was really no death blow he could deal the republic until he received reinforcements. You could certainly improve his situation by having him hold on to tarentum and capua, but his force was not large enough to seriously threaten Rome itself.

Actually, having hasdrubal come in 212 is even better, when sicily is still in revolt. But yes, he could still win up until metaurus. He was doomed after it. Avoiding metaurus altogether is another option, bu Ii think this is a much easier way to deal the republic it's decisive blow that makes it accept terms.

John Fredrick Parker · Sep 21, 2013

What about Dertosa?

SlyDessertFox · Sep 21, 2013

John Fredrick Parker said:
What about Dertosa?

Carthage should have ignored Spain. Winning the war was not going to happen by winning in Spain. To win the war, they needed to win in Italy. By winning in Italy, no matter what happened in Spain, they would keep Spain in the treaty.

Though quickly kicking the Romans out of Hispania would enable Hannibal to keep to his original strategy of using Spain as an untouched base from which to receive supplies and men, in case the Carthaginian senate failed to cooperate. It would also enable Hasdrubal to dedicate money and resources to building a proper fleet.

Though Dertosa itself wasn't terrible important, because it wasn't long thereafter than the Scipio's were killed and their army destroyed, prompting Nero, and then the younger Scipio to come to Spain.

John Fredrick Parker · Sep 21, 2013

So if I understand, in the winter of 216-215, Carthage could have decided to reinforce Hannibal instead of trying to retake Spain (thus, no Deratosa), and this would have allowed Hannibal's army to march on Rome and end the war fairly quickly (by 213 or so). That about right?

Coyote Knight · Sep 21, 2013

If you can get rid of the problem that is Hanno II the Great, that would also be good to helping Carthaginian victory.

SlyDessertFox · Sep 21, 2013

John Fredrick Parker said:
So if I understand, in the winter of 216-215, Carthage could have decided to reinforce Hannibal instead of trying to retake Spain (thus, no Deratosa), and this would have allowed Hannibal's army to march on Rome and end the war fairly quickly (by 213 or so). That about right?

I'm not sure if he could actually march on Rome at that point yet, for Rome was still not in as weak as a position as it would be by 207. But it would be of immense help-expect him to be able to take Tarentum in full and hold on to it, and drive off the Romans from the gates of Capua.

Then, some more reinforcements (the ones that were wasted in Sardinia and Sicily) arriving in 213-212 should be enough to force Rome to capitulate. As Coyote Knight pointed out though, you need to kill off or at least seriously discredit Hanno The Great. He was the leader of the anti-Hannibal faction, and was the reason that the troops were allocated to Spain, Sicily, and Sardinia, instead of Italy. Killing or discrediting him is like cutting off the head of the anti-Hannibal's.

John Fredrick Parker · Sep 22, 2013

Splendid, so our PoD is Hanno dying (or discredited, if anyone has ideas there) sometime in the fall or winter of 216. Will that be enough to get Hannibal the reinforcements he needs in this kind of timeframe?

Coyote Knight · Sep 22, 2013

John Fredrick Parker said:
Splendid, so our PoD is Hanno dying (or discredited, if anyone has ideas there) sometime in the fall or winter of 216. Will that be enough to get Hannibal the reinforcements he needs in this kind of timeframe?

Have Hanno killed or discredited, Spain not focused on as heavily, and Metaurus go the other way for the Carthaginians. With strong forces and positions in Sicily and Italy, along with the anti-Hannibal faction in disarray at the loss of their main faction leader, it should be enough to convince most Carthaginians that they could end the war and on their terms. Hannibal gets the troops, supplies, and equipment he needs and wins the 2nd Punic War for Carthage.

John Fredrick Parker · Sep 22, 2013

Coyote Knight said:
Have Hanno killed or discredited, Spain not focused on as heavily, and Metaurus go the other way for the Carthaginians.

Wouldn't the war be over TTL by the time if the Metaurus battle though?

SlyDessertFox · Sep 22, 2013

John Fredrick Parker said:
Wouldn't the war be over TTL by the time if the Metaurus battle though?

I think 207 would be the latest the war would be over then, most likely earlier.

Max Sinister · Sep 23, 2013

Seems that Hanno dying would help indeed. Also, if more of Rome's Italian allies defected to Hannibal. Don't some people say that he was very charismatic?