What if South Africa didn't get an agreement to move towards multiracial democracy in the 1990s? I'm not sure quite what POD you need for this: no Mandela, no de Klerk, some inflammatory act of violence perhaps. Would the country descend into out and out civil war? If so, how would that play out? Would numerical strength of the indigenous Africans ultimately overwhelm the whites? Would the whites' financial strength allow them to maintain dominance? Would the US get involved? Would the country ultimately break up into black areas and white areas? What would happen to the other ethnic minorities: coloureds, Asians, etc?
WI: No conciliation in 1990s South Africa
- Thread starter Socrates
- Start date
At the risk of appearing flippant, what happened in OTL was so unexpected/unlikely that it verges on ASB. It would have taken so little to undo the attempts at negotiated settlement that you can pick and choose, both before, during and after the settlement process. Events more than individuals would likely have caused a collapse of the process. Then look to todays Syria, but ten time worse, with a multiplicity of mini civil wars raging within a collapsing nuclear power. You work it out
It wouldn't be a civil war, not at that point. One has to remember that by 1990 the SADF was a serious military force, battle-hardened and well equipped, able to mobilize over 400,000 soldiers (the overwhelming majority of them white) with access to a considerable air force, thousands of armored vehicles, some of the world's best artillery and the training to use all of it. The idea of black militias defeating that force on the field of battle is ludicrous. Massive instability and rioting, sure. Massacres of those in outlying areas and vicious retaliation by the other side, most definitely. But the white government controlled all the military forces and the paramilitary portions of the South African Police. Black South Africans' best bet was economic denial and making the nation ungovernable, which is exactly what they were doing in the 1980s, to a level that amazed both Pretoria and nations abroad. It's also worth pointing out that while Black South Africans overwhelmingly supported the ANC (aside from the Zulus, who had issues with the Xhosa-dominated ANC leadership), South Africa's colored populations preferred the whites over the ANC in the 1990s and the Indian and Asian populations in South Africa would be a tossup, namely because the Indians had gotten caught in the middle of the tribal battles many times before and didn't trust the blacks any more than anyone else. I would expect the white government in that situation to give full rights to the colored and Indian populations in return for them helping the whites fight off ANC rule.
End result is Beirut across most of South Africa for as long as the blacks can continue to get support for their guerilla conflict. If the uprising is small, expect little to change. If the uprising shows signs of lasting a long time as an armed conflict, then Pretoria will start drawing lines in the sand and getting support wherever it can.
largely agree, even in the 1990s the white South Africans owned South Africa total, what broke it was the start of boycotts and sanctions to bite average Whites, plus the end of the cold war was the total end of the idea of US or UK support and also the end of the idea that ANC victory might lead to "Southern African Soviet" a taste of terrorism (and it was only ever as taste of it) also scared people about the idea of living like the Israelis, the Whites didn't have the will to fight for apartheid, but the blacks didn't have the strength to win such a fight or even wage it
that said, what would 20 years of political, diplomatic and economic total isolation do to the SADF and the government and average white citizens? if by the late 1980s the ANC was willing to plant bombs how much worse would this get as hope about the fall of apartheid fades, as hero figures like Mandela die in jail and younger more fire breathing leaders rise....
You're mostly right on this one - the wrong part is the US or UK support. London and Washington had no love for apartheid, and Pretoria had little love for Washington and absolutely none for London - the memories of Lord Kitchener's camps where 26,000 women and children perished from disease have lived long in South Africa. What ended apartheid was the economic issues. The ANC's moving into terrorism against civilians - which it should be pointed out a lot of ANC commander did not agree with - was not a huge factor, the big one was the economics. By the early 1980s, some farsighted individuals in SA realized that apartheid would one day fall, and they wanted to know that they, their people and their investments would be safe. The ANC had figured out by this point that they had little hope of physically defeating apartheid, and that getting an agreement which would see apartheid end would be worth compromises to some of the white elite. The USSR supplied guns and some money to the ANC, but not that much, and Moscow was not about to blow up South Africa, as it would cause problems for them as well as for the West. Botha's attempt at accelerating Verwoerd's plan of grand apartheid and the 1983 Constitution was an attempt to head off the falling of apartheid at the pass.
Mandela isn't gonna die in jail, as Pretoria was well aware that that happening would blowup much of the nation. As for diplomatic and economic total isolation, the former was unlikely and the latter impossible owing to what South Africa's largest sources of revenue were - exports of metals, many of them critically important to the world's economies. That isolation was what the SADF dealt with in the 1980s, which is why South Africa's arms manufacturing industries got to be as advanced as they did - this country made its own small arms, armored vehicles, trucks, transport helicopters, anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, towed and self-propelled artillery, missile boats, a supply ship, attack helicopters, MRBMs and nuclear weapons. They license-built attack aircraft in considerable numbers, did major upgrades of aircraft they already owned and had a fighter aircraft program well underway before De Klerk canned it in 1992. There really wasn't much the SADF couldn't do themselves aside from main battle tanks, and considering they developed their own turreted, rather advanced AFV (the Rooikat), I don't think a real MBT would be beyond their abilities if it was needed.
As far as firebrand leaders go, that is a potential problem on both sides. Some of the whites, including a lot of De Klerk's government, realized the need to negotiate out the end of apartheid, but we both know that there were lots of whites who continued to feel that the baaskap, the mastery of the rest of the peoples of South Africa, could be maintained if they just killed enough of them to cow them into accepting white rule. (The fact that sooner or later people in such a situation just keep fighting because they have nothing to loose and don't give a damn anymore never seemed to occur to these people.) The absolute worst case scenarios would see SA bring its colored and Indian populations in with the whites (in such a conflict, they'd get shot at as often by the blacks as by the whites in all likelihood) and securing the major cities, pathways to the ports and the mines, and leave everything else alone - and if that means the outlying whites have to become paramilitary loonies to survive, well, so be it. That would be horribly damaging to South Africa's economy, but if its that or losing a chance at survival, they'll fight viciously. Apartheid could have lasted to this day, but it would be a worse place than South Africa is now.
I only meant if it lasted for a long time, Mandela today having won, been President with the best health care the nation can give is a very sick old man who has been in and out of hospital non-stop since at lest 2009, a Mandela in jail having not won and with even good prison care is much less likely to live as long as he has in OTL, I didn't mean them killing him.
Garrison
Donor
With the Cold War over the white regime in SA had become a liability. I can't see a Clinton White House offering it support.
I imagine a scenario where many more liberal whites emigrate and the only ones left are the hardcore apartheid supporters. They are replaced by Eastern Europeans who are used to living in a dictatorship and will probably be the most likely to support the status quo (where simply being white gives them an elevated status). On top of this I could see a smaller number of extremist whites immigrating from Europe, North America and Australia.
One thing that I can see happening is with the commodities boom of the last decade South Africa would begin selling a lot more to China and to a lesser extent South Korea and Taiwan. It seems that the Chinese have no reticence with regards to investing in mining in rogue states with human rights abuses (Sudan, Myanmar). The South African government would accord them "honorary white" status as they did to the Japanese and Taiwanese.
In the 80s due to the sanctions, South Africa began relying more heavily on trade with Japan and Taiwan, and Japan became their leading trade partner. In the late 80s trade with Eastern Europe was increasing. Also, South Africa sought to attract immigrants from countries such as Poland, Bulgaria, East Germany, Russia, Ukraine etc.
Had apartheid lasted, the government will actively try to recruit engineers and especially people linked with the defence industry in the former Soviet Bloc. Let us imagine they end up with a significant enough community of Russians (200,000 or so). Coupled with the fact that Russia was trying to pry up their flagging economy by exporting weaponry, one could see the RSA buying some MiG-29s etc. A situation could develop where Russia would not want to be harsh on South Africa due to the large Russian community in the country, and also wanting to protect an important customer of Russian military hardware.
Finally both Russia and China are wary of interfering in other countries internal affairs, so I could see them siding with South Africa as they often do with Iran. It would be an ironic situation to have China and Russia now vetoing strict measures against South Africa in the UN, but one that could develop given the scenarios above.
katchen
Banned
When I was studying the history and politics of Southern Africa in the late 1970s at University of Colorado at Denver ( Faradhi Fardhi was one of my classmates and colleagues, interestingly), our professor, James Scaritt gave credence to the idea of a "two state solution" or partition to South Africa, in which the whites basically keep southern Gauteng (then Transvaal, Orange Free State and Cape, leaving the Africans with the rest. Natal becoming an independent, multiracial state.
Perhaps tha's how South Africa would have evolved over time, especially in the 2000s with a George W Bush Administration in the White House. I can't see a George W Bush Administration continuing to uphold UN sanctions against South Africa. Though an incoming Obama Administration would undoubltedly reinstate them.
Perhaps tha's how South Africa would have evolved over time, especially in the 2000s with a George W Bush Administration in the White House. I can't see a George W Bush Administration continuing to uphold UN sanctions against South Africa. Though an incoming Obama Administration would undoubltedly reinstate them.
For some reason I feel like people would view the African-dominated state in much the same way as they viewed the Bantustans.
the main issue as I understand it, was that whites aren't demographically concentrated in one place.
I could definitely see this happening, but would South Africa be better off. Crime would increase but probably not as much as we see in OTL, with black militants being the main source of it. They would likely suffer due to western sanctions but as you mentioned they could find support in Russia and China. Some products like the G series artillery pieces would likely be sold to China and maybe Russia in 152mm variants. They could also count on sales of large numbers of MRAPs and APCs as well as small arms, possibly the Rooivalk and AT weapons. Russia would have no qualms about selling them oil especially Putin, and their minerals would be of great interest to China. The SADF would likely re-equip with Mi-17s, Su-27s, An-70s etc to replace embargoed European equipment. Overall they could be a far cry from today's South Africa economically but brutality against blacks, an autocratic government and a lingering ANC insurgency would suggest otherwise
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It's not that simple. South Africa's crime problem would be massively worse if apartheid was still around, because while in modern times South African criminals tend to be out for themselves (and thus after each other), if apartheid was still around they would be almost exclusively after the whites. Combine that with the massive series of rolling strikes and rising military costs and you'd see the RSA approaching bankruptcy by 2000 or a little after that, and that would do more damage to apartheid than anything else. Apartheid's OTL end was much better than anything else, trust me.
Nope. They make their own very good artillery pieces. The G5/G6 guns were only sold to a handful of customers, and I doubt that would change here. More to the point, its not easy to change the bore on an artillery gun, which would be a problem for buyers of G5/G6 guns in Eastern Bloc countries.
To who? India wouldn't buy as they were loudly against the apartheid state. South America's sales prospects die in the 1990s. The first world is a no go. Russia and China make all those themselves. Forget Africa while apartheid still exists. About their only options would be the Middle East, and their relationship with Israel could poison that well, too.
This one I'll give you.
At the same time as the Eastern Bloc is supplying the African National Congress? I doubt it. It should also be pointed out that they could have bought Eastern equipment but never did. They would be more likely to make their own stuff than buy from the Eastern Bloc.
Trust someone whose family background is half from Southern Africa and who lived there - South Africa post-apartheid is a better place, even if it is a long ways from perfect. Mandela's attempts at reconciliation were EXACTLY what was needed, and while economically South Africa still has a massive distance to go, the fact is that most of these problems are legacies of apartheid, and as flawed as the ANC is, apartheid's survival would be MUCH worse.
Well I was responding to Viriato's comments but I agree as you're much more knowledgeable than me anyways. He did mention Eastern European immigration and that Indians and coloureds would join the whites against the blacks. But even then the blacks are a massive majority in South Africa and it would be an insurgency of epic proportions that not even the brutality of the Army and Police could control, plus I imagine the ANC would get funding and weapons from the various nations neighboring South Africa potentially drawing South Africa itself into conflict with these nations.
I agree with you on Russia but China has a massive inventory of obsolete artillery pieces that need replacement. I don't see why they wouldn't buy the G5 and G6 and South Africa couldn't afford to pass up a sales opportunity like China.
Again I think China would seek to augment or replace their largely obsolete fleet of armored vehicles. Indonesia and the former Soviet republics are possible in this time period as well.
Russia is broke in the 90s and they gain more selling equipment to the SADF than aiding the ANC. South Africa is also faced with aging equipment and they can't produce modern aircraft, aircraft engines, and radars among other things completely on their own. Su-27s to replace the Mirages, Il-76/An-70 to replace their C-130s and Transalls, Mi-17 and Mi-26, and new engines and rotors for the Rooivalk among many other possible sales. These deals could be financed by mineral exports or something as South Africa was lacking cash at the time.
I don't doubt you on any of this, I was merely responding to Viriato's ideas, which seemed interesting but weren't that realistic apparently.
If things start to get really bad I could see South Africa being broken-up into 3-4 countries, a Cape Republic, Zulu Kingdom (the Zulus did'nt even really want to merge back with South Africa initially) a White-state in the North-East, including all the white areas and as much of the economically productive bits as it could hold without becoming to black and the rest forming a black state and/or parts being given to bordering states where the ethnicities were the same.
Although most of us agree South Africa would be much worse in the scenario, the whole point of this website it to plausibly work out how scenarios could have been brought to fruition.
As for the Eastern bloc, they were anti-apartheid, but by 1989 the Eastern bloc was crumbling. South Africa was briefly trying to welcome Eastern Europeans to the country. Interestingly enough, South African trade with countries such as Romania increased in the 1988-1992 period.
During the post-Communist collapse, most of the former Eastern bloc was doing horribly economically. Most of the countries took at least a decade to adjust to capitalism (some such as Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova haven't even come that far). So I could see some immigrants being wooed, if large enough diasporas can be formed, some countries probably wouldn't want to hurt their kith and kin in South Africa with sanctions. In OTL Greece, Israel and Portugal were against sanctions for that reason.
In some ways the 90s would have been easier for apartheid South Africa. With the cold war over, aid to Africa plummeted. The former Eastern bloc could no longer afford to give aid and the west no longer so a need to prop up pro-Western regimes. Low commodity prices meant that cash crops and minerals were sold at such low prices that most African countries began sinking in debt.
The only way I could imagine apartheid South Africa clinging on is one where in the 80s the government digs in and takes a sharp turn to the right. So they continue to fight on in Namibia. Such a South Africa would still back UNITA and possibly RENAMO in Mozambique. Also, I can see them getting involved in the Zaire/Congo civil war. Such a government will seek to continuously destabilise it's neighbours unless they cut off aid to the ANC.
In Angola, the Cubans would have to pull out of Angola due to their own economic collapse (no longer being backed by the USSR). They first defaulted on their debt in 1987 and between 1989-1993 their GDP declined by more than 1/3. Sugar prices collapsed between 1990-1991 and the Soviet price guarantees were now gone so Cuba was in no shape to support the MPLA government. One could see a militaristic South Africa backing UNITA and possibly ousting the MPLA. This would be a good way to a secure source of oil.
Ok so lets say there's an influx of Eastern European immigrants to South Africa and the former Warsaw Pact, Russia, and China don't embargo South Africa. Apartheid and western embargo aside, how does South Africa look today economically, politically, and militarily? Better, worse, roughly the same?
katchen
Banned
South Africa is just beginning to develop what is turning out to be extensive unconventional oil and gas deposits from frakkable shale gas and oil in the Karoo Basin www.falconoilandgas.com/karoo-basin-sa to deep water oil and gas reserves in the seas surrounding South Africa https://www.impactoilandgas.co.uk/Locations.aspx?id=6. Because of the Karoo oil and gas, a "return to the Cape" white redoubt centered around Capetown would probably be viable ITTL.once the price of oil is high enough and the technology of frakking well developed enough to make development of those fields feasible.