Asking for Help: British Argentina Butterflies

mlp

The POD is 1807, when Whitelocke does attack the city before announcing it unlike OTL. While this will ensure a British presence in South America, how will this influence later parts of Pan-American history? Will Brazil be under the British sphere of influence, and so no Monroe Doctrine?
I cannot list the numerous wars in South America during the 19th century, so I hope somebody knowledgeable in that region's history could help me grasp the basic ramifications of the POD's influence.
 

Falastur

Well, it depends a little bit on the butterflies, but I'm tempted to say that not much changes. For a start, people have debated a number of times just how successful the British could be. Sure, you tweak a few things and I'm sure they could capture Buenos Aires but it's hotly contested whether they could've captured the interior of the Viceroyalty of Rio de la Plata. A lot of stuff rests on just how much land they could take.

I tend towards saying it wouldn't change much in the long run - I don't think the British would be an aggressive southern neighbour so I'm not sure that the Brazilians would feel like they feared them, while I'm not sure that controlling the Plata estuary would give them any benefit in dominating the Brazilian markets that they didn't already have. I'm not really sure whether this would affect Brazil declaring its independence - again, I have a tendency to say "um...maybe...no?" as I don't think controlling the Plata would affect either the course of the Napoleonic Wars or Brazil's internal strife over the following few years, but I'm not an expert.

As for the Monroe Doctrine, well the British were actually in favour of it anyway. They wanted to hijack it to use it to serve their own purposes, preventing European governments coming back to reclaim what they had lost in the previous 20 years and thus protecting their own dominance of the American trade. I don't see why controlling the Plata would make them feel any differently. The Americans didn't want the British co-operation on enforcing the Monroe Doctrine but they got the British assistance against their better wishes anyway, so I can't see how this changes anything. They are still going to declare it because they still don't want to see any more re-colonialism of the Americas, and Britain is still going to support it because it suits them to support it.
 
Derek Pullem

Derek Pullem

Donor
The problem with 1807 PODs is that in 1808 Britain and Spain are allied against Napoleon.

There is no way that Spain would permit their ally to annex their land - and GB would find it difficult to enforce.

The Dutch example is not relevant as GB had held the Cape and Ceylon for almost 20 years before the Dutch changed sides not only a few months.
 

Colonel Troutstrangler

Derek Pullem said:
The problem with 1807 PODs is that in 1808 Britain and Spain are allied against Napoleon.

There is no way that Spain would permit their ally to annex their land - and GB would find it difficult to enforce.

The Dutch example is not relevant as GB had held the Cape and Ceylon for almost 20 years before the Dutch changed sides not only a few months.
Click to expand...

I would agree to a point, however, Spain was in no fit state to demand anything - they asked for British assistance and I see no reason why they would not do so if the Brits held argentine land.
On the question of Brazil - it was Portugese and England has had an alliance with Portugal since the 1100's - so no threat there!
 
Derek Pullem

Derek Pullem

Donor
Colonel Troutstrangler said:
I would agree to a point, however, Spain was in no fit state to demand anything - they asked for British assistance and I see no reason why they would not do so if the Brits held argentine land.
On the question of Brazil - it was Portugese and England has had an alliance with Portugal since the 1100's - so no threat there!
Click to expand...

Even the Spanish in their situation would baulk at Sir John Moore's army in exchange for Argentina.
 

Colonel Troutstrangler

Little nit pick

:)
Derek Pullem said:
Even the Spanish in their situation would baulk at Sir John Moore's army in exchange for Argentina.
Click to expand...

It was an earlier force under Burrard that landed and fought the French, giving Wellesley his first victory and a court martial for his part in the convention of cintra! Moore came (and went) later :)
 
Derek Pullem

Derek Pullem

Donor
I'll raise your nitpick!

Colonel Troutstrangler said:
:)

It was an earlier force under Burrard that landed and fought the French, giving Wellesley his first victory and a court martial for his part in the convention of cintra! Moore came (and went) later :)
Click to expand...

But I hardly think the Spanish would be happy to exchange Argentina for a British Army in Portugal!!!
 

unprincipled peter

Donor
I'm not quite sure what really changes to allow British victory. They goofed and bungled the Buenos Aires invasion, but even if they hadn't, it's likely that the locals, and royalists coming from the Northern parts of the viceroyality are going to make the situation untenable for the British, especially once French invasion of Portugal gives Britain a European theatre to concentrate on.

But, magically giving Britain a lasting foothold in Buenos Aires/Montevideo (a more likely WI is WI Britain held on to Montevideo after getting booted out of BA): There's the whole likelihood of the hinterlands remaining untamed by the British (they barely had enough to take/keep BA IF everything went right). Portugal/Brazil does not take over and annex Uruguay, and hence does not lose it in the cisplatine war. This enhances Brazil's stability at the beginning of it's independance, and possibly allows Pedro I to keep control there instead of turning tail and running to Portugal. All this probably butterflies away the Paraguayan War, which in turn keeps Brazil on it's course of slow advancement with a small military/less republicanism, so Pedro II probably doesn't get the boot. Overall, this is probably a net plus for Brazil as it doesn't spend a lot of gold taking then losing Uruguay, both of which pissed off the Brazilian populace.

Additional affects: San Martin may not return to help the independance movement of Argentina/Chile/Bolivia/Peru, and/or concentrates on driving out the Brits. This butterflies away the crossing of the Andes and likely eliminates or delays Chile/Bolivian independance for a long while. Belgrano likely does not try to invade Paraguay, so Paraguayan actions are likely far different. Do they get the notion to go independant, or are they still under the illusion that they're part of the spanish realm?

While Portugal and England are nominal allies, England was never shy about using it's superior military status to take advantage of the weaker nation. I envision a beleagured Britain in Argentina, but if they did manage to make it a secure possession, being next door to Brazil makes it a little easier to muscle B about. Don't really see much changing from OTL, though.

Peninsular war doesn't change, but Britain does have a sticky situation trying to balance holding on to Spanish booty while helping Spain vs France.
 

mlp

unprincipled peter said:
I'm not quite sure what really changes to allow British victory. They goofed and bungled the Buenos Aires invasion, but even if they hadn't, it's likely that the locals, and royalists coming from the Northern parts of the viceroyality are going to make the situation untenable for the British, especially once French invasion of Portugal gives Britain a European theatre to concentrate on.

But, magically giving Britain a lasting foothold in Buenos Aires/Montevideo (a more likely WI is WI Britain held on to Montevideo after getting booted out of BA): There's the whole likelihood of the hinterlands remaining untamed by the British (they barely had enough to take/keep BA IF everything went right). Portugal/Brazil does not take over and annex Uruguay, and hence does not lose it in the cisplatine war. This enhances Brazil's stability at the beginning of it's independance, and possibly allows Pedro I to keep control there instead of turning tail and running to Portugal. All this probably butterflies away the Paraguayan War, which in turn keeps Brazil on it's course of slow advancement with a small military/less republicanism, so Pedro II probably doesn't get the boot. Overall, this is probably a net plus for Brazil as it doesn't spend a lot of gold taking then losing Uruguay, both of which pissed off the Brazilian populace.

Additional affects: San Martin may not return to help the independance movement of Argentina/Chile/Bolivia/Peru, and/or concentrates on driving out the Brits. This butterflies away the crossing of the Andes and likely eliminates or delays Chile/Bolivian independance for a long while. Belgrano likely does not try to invade Paraguay, so Paraguayan actions are likely far different. Do they get the notion to go independant, or are they still under the illusion that they're part of the spanish realm?

While Portugal and England are nominal allies, England was never shy about using it's superior military status to take advantage of the weaker nation. I envision a beleagured Britain in Argentina, but if they did manage to make it a secure possession, being next door to Brazil makes it a little easier to muscle B about. Don't really see much changing from OTL, though.

Peninsular war doesn't change, but Britain does have a sticky situation trying to balance holding on to Spanish booty while helping Spain vs France.
Click to expand...
Exactly what I was looking for. Thanks!:D:):D
 

katchen

Banned
The British had a colony at Viedma on the Rio Negro at the edge of Patagonia in 1777 but abandoned it after a peace treaty with Spain a couple of years later. The Spanish are not going to be settling south of Buenos Aires anytime in the near future and they know it. Give Buenos Aires to Great Britain in return for an army in Portugal? No way! Patgonia and te Pampas south of Buenos AIres, as well as the coast south of Valdivia on the Pacific side of South America, might however be negotiable. As for that matter, come to think of it, everything north of the Golden Gate in California, putting Great Britain in San Francisco (or is it to them, Sir Francis:D) Bay,
 

mlp

katchen said:
The British had a colony at Viedma on the Rio Negro at the edge of Patagonia in 1777 but abandoned it after a peace treaty with Spain a couple of years later. The Spanish are not going to be settling south of Buenos Aires anytime in the near future and they know it. Give Buenos Aires to Great Britain in return for an army in Portugal? No way! Patgonia and te Pampas south of Buenos AIres, as well as the coast south of Valdivia on the Pacific side of South America, might however be negotiable. As for that matter, come to think of it, everything north of the Golden Gate in California, putting Great Britain in San Francisco (or is it to them, Sir Francis:D) Bay,
Click to expand...
The point for me was to have a opposing force against Brazil that would prompt the Empire of Brazil into modernization/industrialization. However, thanks for the comments!:D
 

unprincipled peter

Donor
if you want Brazilian modernization/progress, you have to keep the crown there. Your timeline threatens the crown even going there. Let's say the Brits are successful in taming Buenos Aires, with good prospects for extending British rule. do they now cooperate/encourage Portuguese transfer of the crown to Brazil? What purpose does that serve? A strong British port and a weak Portuguese hold on Brazil is ideal for the Brits. Aiding the crown transfer becomes a bit more iffy.

Get the crown to Brazil and keep it there. A constitution around 1816 might do it. Gotta make Joao VI a stronger king, leading rather than reacting.

So, for Brazilian modernization, you want a weak Argentina. You've got to get Joao VI to give up designs on Uruguay - it's going to take too much energy to take and hold U for very little economic gain. I'd have gone for Entre Rios, which was sparsely populated (thus less resistance) and ripe for agrarian wealth. Uruguay was simply too large to swallow. Take parts of it, but leave Montevideo alone. Play with other easily manipulated parts of South American history, like the British invasions, which leave Argentina less independence minded. Argentina/Paraguay are Brazil's only realistic border threats. Geography makes the rest unlikely battle grounds. Make peace there, and Brazil can concentrate on economic advance, much as the US did , rather than spending on the military.

Second, you have to stabilize the 1820's/30's. This requires Pedro I to be a more sensible ruler. magically make his older brother live and be a good ruler, and let Pedro I be the playboy he was. This one's my fave. You can make the family dynasty anything you want, which includes male heirs to continue the monarchy into the 20th century (can also achieve this by making Pedro II's male children survive)

You can take a later POD, and allow Pedro II male heir to live. Brazil was on a nice steady path to industrialization when Pedro II got the boot, a move he didn't contest in part because he had no male heir.
 

miguelrj

unprincipled peter said:
I'd have gone for Entre Rios, which was sparsely populated (thus less resistance) and ripe for agrarian wealth. Uruguay was simply too large to swallow. Take parts of it, but leave Montevideo alone.
Click to expand...

But... but... borders at the Plate were the fetish! Natural borders and all.
Interesting thought though. I suppose you mean only the north of Entre Rios (along with the mentioned Urugayan bits) otherwise 1) rump Oriental Province becomes territorially disconnected with the other Argentine provinces and 2) Brazil becomes too close to Buenos Aires. Both 1 and 2 will annoy Argentines to no end.
 

unprincipled peter

Donor
I mean the current state of Entre Rios. State of Corrientes is economically not all that worthwhile. Entre Rios is part of the Pampas agrarian goldmine. For the first half of the 1800s, it was a sparsely populated region. I'd say the Argentines accept it's loss a whole lot better than Argentina accepts the loss of Uruguay. For a year or so (1822), it pretended to be an independent country.

Still, if you want to be a little less aggressive, take the northern part of Uruguay (north of Rio Negro). It'll give you a decent sea going port for Rio Grande Do Sul. Cooperate with the British in establishing a small independent Uruguay (simply abandoning Montevideo is the biggest bungle Britain did during the invasion fiasco, after failing to take BA)
 

miguelrj

This is unrelated with a British Argentina but...

When I think of Entre Rios in connection to an expansionist Brazil, I mostly think of it as a buffer state between Argentina and the Brazilian Cisplatine.
If Corrientes and Entre Rios were in friendly non-Argentine hands, Argentina's ability to start and carry on a revolt in the Cisplatine would be dramatically reduced. The Cisplatine would not be such a powder keg and, over time, its population would be assimilated with the Brazilian South... which is by itself problematic.

I don't know how open to bribes Ramírez was since his republic wasn't exactly secessionist. Come to think of it, more so than a puppet Republic of Entre Rios, it would make so much sense for Paraguay to take over Corrientes and Entre Rios since it would make it cease to be landlocked. But Paraguay was not on "Prussian mode" yet and I don't know how easily they could be persuaded to move south with Brazilian support...
 

katchen

Banned
If you want the Crown to remain in Brazil, it would be best if the revolutionaries take over in Portugal quickly so that the King returning to Lisbon will not do any good. At that point Brazillio-Portuguese possession of the colonies (Angola, Mozambique, Sao Tome, Princepe, Cabo Verde Islands, Guinea Bissau, Azores, Madiera, Goa, Damao, Diu, Macao and East Timor becomes a fait accompli.
The question then becomes: what happens if and when the Holy Alliance (read French troops) retake Portugal from the rebels?
Will they simply restore Metropolitan Portugal to the King living in Brazil, whose Court is reluctant to have him leave Rio de Janiero to say the least? Or demand as a condition of Portugal's restoation that the King return to Lisbon?
Great Brttain is anxious for the latter condition because Great Britain is anxious to end the bizarre condition of a New World Empire having colonies around the world--and in order to abolish the slave trade. Brazilo-Portugal, along with Spain contends that the slave trade, especially between African and American colonies of the same empire is an internal matter and therefore none of Great Britain's business.
I suspect that if push comes to shove, Brazilo-Portugal will be willing to cede or sell Metropolitan Portugal to Spain simply to preserve it's status quo under these circumstances. The Empire without Portugal is worth more, from the point of view of Rio de Janiero, than Metropolitan Portugal itself. Which means that the only way that Great Britain will be able to separate Brazil and Angola and Mozambique or any of the other colonies is by force.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top