AHC: Keep Nokia competitive

In light of recent events surrounding Nokia, here's an AHC I thought up:

What's the most plausible POD which would keep Nokia as a competitive player in the smartphone business today? Let's define "competitive" as no lower than one-third of all smartphone sales by units sold.
 
Less bureaucratization and streamlining the company's organization earlier could have made the company more agile. The structure of Nokia become increasingly messy during the 00's leading to a situation where people working in the company had very little idea who their boss was or what they were supposed to be doing. This also meant that many innovations they developed got stuck somewhere in lower levels and those which got trough were often stopped or slowed down by the conservative leadership.
 
The simplest PoD would be a situation where Jobbs suffocates on a Pretzel while Nokia retains their old company culture where leaders had engineering background, resulting to a situation where the prototype touchpad technology Nokia tested had way before Apple had their own stuff up and running in OTL doesn't get stopped to low-level management by a single visionless buffoon with marketing/economics training.
 

Kongzilla

Banned
What about a TL where EMP attacks become an everyday thing and Nokia true to it's brand image of having hard as nail phones, begin producing increasingly EMP resilient phones, and even creating things like TV's and Cars.
 

John Farson

Banned
The simplest PoD would be a situation where Jobbs suffocates on a Pretzel while Nokia retains their old company culture where leaders had engineering background, resulting to a situation where the prototype touchpad technology Nokia tested had way before Apple had their own stuff up and running in OTL doesn't get stopped to low-level management by a single visionless buffoon with marketing/economics training.

Better yet, have said visionless buffoon with marketing/economics training choke on a pretzel before he's in a position to do real damage.
 
Less bureaucratization and streamlining the company's organization earlier could have made the company more agile. The structure of Nokia become increasingly messy during the 00's leading to a situation where people working in the company had very little idea who their boss was or what they were supposed to be doing. This also meant that many innovations they developed got stuck somewhere in lower levels and those which got trough were often stopped or slowed down by the conservative leadership.
This was very much the case. My dad worked at Nokia in the 00s. The organization grew out of proportions, and no one really knew their place in it, just that apparently the lawyers were running the show.
 

NothingNow

Banned
Better yet, have said visionless buffoon with marketing/economics training choke on a pretzel before he's in a position to do real damage.

...And then have the company just throw money at R&D and production instead of growing the bureaucratic side of things.

That basic strategy is working pretty spectacularly for Apple at the moment. And there's no reason to think keeping an engineering heavy culture at Nokia wouldn't pay off either.
 
Make the public realise how shit iOS truly is at an earlier stage.

Or have Nokia have an Android range as well as a Windows Phone Range.
 
Operating systems are more desirable the more people use them. Hence the Windows domination in the PC market and the split between Android and iOS. Both Microsoft and Nokia had a fairly large share of the mobile OS market back in the days of Windows Phone 6 and Symbian. Me thinks a proper transition to the age of touchscreens and smartphones as consumer products as well as business phones would keep Nokia afloat.
They may need to release Symbian for free, or almost free, for their competitors and improve it a lot. Or make that OS in the N9 retrocompatible, and bundle something in there that would still make them take a cut from, let's say, a Symbian/Meego Samsung mobile phone: search engines (partnering with Microsoft or Yahoo?), app stores, or something else. And/or react faster than google to the iPhone.
 
Nokia really could have had a much stronger performance in the smartphone market if they had followed the right path; their market share lead during the peak of Symbian's performance was demonstration of what could have been. A notable thing is that Symbian itself might have acquired somewhat of a bad reputation in the last few years, but it was technically superior to both Android and iOS (in the latter case, far superior - for example, iOS took several years and a few iPhone generations to get copy-and-paste, which Symbian had before it was even named Symbian).

It didn't adapt well to touchscreen phones, but then, it wasn't designed for them; there are several things about Symbian which I have identified, being the current owner of a Nokia E71 running S60, that show the dependency on hardware buttons. Unfortunately, there was a complete shift to capacitative touchscreens with only the bare minimum of hardware buttons - something I think was a deeply unsatisfying move.

However, there are several ways in which Nokia could have improved their fortunes and potentially still be competitive:

- Prevent the fragmentation of S60 between the 2nd and 3rd Editions. This would give Symbian quite a substantial advantage in the early days of the "app wars", when iPhone OS and Android were only getting their app markets started.

- Push the earlier adoption of smartphones in markets other than the business market. While in OTL, Nokia did try this to some extent with phones like the N-Gage and some of the Nseries phones, I don't feel they did enough. The problems with the N-Gage experiment are manifold, but one of the biggest problems was trying to compete directly in the handheld games console market, which meant competing with Nintendo - rarely a good strategy.

In any circumstance, if they'd dropped the N-Gage idea and pushed their superior camera quality and made more of the multimedia potential of their phones, they could have had a stronger market share back when hardware buttons were in vogue. This would have meant a bigger trend for the early touchscreen phones to overcome, and even in the case that touchscreens in this ATL became as big as they have in OTL, it gives Nokia much-needed breathing space to conceive new ideas instead of fighting off the back foot.

- Realise that Symbian was a dead end after S60. Notoriously difficult to develop for versus the Unix underpinnings of iOS or the Java basis of Android, it did not engender much praise from developers. Nokia did do this - eventually - in OTL, but they went for what I consider to have been the worst potential replacement. Android would have been a superior choice, even if it had meant competing with Samsung and HTC; Maemo would have been an even better choice.

It's difficult for me to describe exactly how disappointed I was when I realised that Nokia wouldn't be replacing Symbian with Maemo, and it's almost as difficult to describe how far ahead Maemo is in a technical sense than iOS or Android. While iOS or Android users take pride in their seas of mediocre apps, Maemo - being a proper Linux - was able (if not particularly competent) to run things like full-fat Firefox and OpenOffice.org.

More importantly, while iOS still has a crippled multitasking model for user applications (even though it's a Unix, which has had multitasking since 1969), Maemo has proper multitasking. And the potential for a swap disc, so memory consumption doesn't become a pressing problem. Oh, and you don't need grossly overweight development platforms to program for Maemo; indeed, if you're masochistic enough, you could even do your development directly on the phone itself. Oh, and the Raspberry Pi has already demonstrated that a small device with memory limitations can still be a viable development platform of sorts, so it's not like we haven't seen the precedent in OTL.

Actually, Nokia, what the hell were you thinking when you didn't go with that? I could have had Emacs on my phone, and you gave that capability up for Windows Phone!
 
This is a classic case of an entrenched leader succumbing to disruptive technology. Rarely does the leader succeed in fending off competition in this case. And when it does, it is usually because they have mature software that is sold primarily to corporate competitors (MSFT, ORCL, etc) rather than emerging technology sold primarily to consumers. "Innovator's Dilemna" by Clayton Christensen does a nice job of highlighting some of the obstacles faced by the leader.
 
Nokia was actually so large company that it had a direct effect on the Finnish economy. At its peak in 2000 the company represented about 4pc of the economy and even as late as 2009 its share of Finnish GDP was 1,6pc. Its share of Finnish corporate taxes was also significant, usually between 10pc and 20pc during the 00's. And these numbers aren't counting the company's subcontractors. If Nokia stays competitive and is able to grow even further, that could give a boost to the Finnish economy. That could have downsides in a longer term though.

Actually looking at those numbers I'm surprised how relatively well Finland has managed IOTL even as Nokia has done badly.

If the Finnish economy does better and a recession is less severe, that could butterfly the rise of True Finns or at least made them less significant players in the Finnish politics. This could have some effect on the Eurocrisis as Finns would have been less demanding in debt negotiations.

The Centre might do better in the 2011 election so we might have a right wing coalition between it and Centre. OTOH even if we get our current SDP-NCP alliance, it might work better as decision making would be much easier in a better economic conditions. Without the True Finns they would have also a stronger majority in the parliament and maybe could drop some smaller parties from the coalition, possibly the Christian Democrats or Left Alliance.
 
Actually looking at those numbers I'm surprised how relatively well Finland has managed IOTL even as Nokia has done badly.

The IT cluster did provide a boost that somewhat hid the fact that traditional Finnish export industries have been slowly declining ever since 1990s.

If the Finnish economy does better and a recession is less severe, that could butterfly the rise of True Finns or at least made them less significant players in the Finnish politics. This could have some effect on the Eurocrisis as Finns would have been less demanding in debt negotiations.

This would require a butterfly much earlier, right after the recession of 1990s. Governments of Lipponen started the process where taxation system was drastically changed, while government reorganization through the so-called Valtion Tuottavuusohjelma only managed to cut off drastic amounts of public sector jobs without providing the savings if was supposed to bring. Governments of Vanhanen continued this process.

The Centre might do better in the 2011 election so we might have a right wing coalition between it and Centre. OTOH even if we get our current SDP-NCP alliance, it might work better as decision making would be much easier in a better economic conditions. Without the True Finns they would have also a stronger majority in the parliament and maybe could drop some smaller parties from the coalition, possibly the Christian Democrats or Left Alliance.

Those elections were extremely close-run thing...NCP won the majority extremely narrowly. I can't find the source right now, but 1500 votes to different candidates would have made the SDP stronger of the two. This might well have meant that Urpilainen forms the new government as a coalition where SDP is joined with Perussuomalaiset and both parties bring in their proxies by introducing Left Alliance and Christian Democrats.
 
- Realise that Symbian was a dead end after S60. Notoriously difficult to develop for versus the Unix underpinnings of iOS or the Java basis of Android, it did not engender much praise from developers. Nokia did do this - eventually - in OTL, but they went for what I consider to have been the worst potential replacement. Android would have been a superior choice, even if it had meant competing with Samsung and HTC; Maemo would have been an even better choice.

It's difficult for me to describe exactly how disappointed I was when I realised that Nokia wouldn't be replacing Symbian with Maemo, and it's almost as difficult to describe how far ahead Maemo is in a technical sense than iOS or Android. While iOS or Android users take pride in their seas of mediocre apps, Maemo - being a proper Linux - was able (if not particularly competent) to run things like full-fat Firefox and OpenOffice.org.

More importantly, while iOS still has a crippled multitasking model for user applications (even though it's a Unix, which has had multitasking since 1969), Maemo has proper multitasking. And the potential for a swap disc, so memory consumption doesn't become a pressing problem. Oh, and you don't need grossly overweight development platforms to program for Maemo; indeed, if you're masochistic enough, you could even do your development directly on the phone itself. Oh, and the Raspberry Pi has already demonstrated that a small device with memory limitations can still be a viable development platform of sorts, so it's not like we haven't seen the precedent in OTL.

In short, Maemo was the PoD that could helped Nokia to be a major player in the Smartphone market. IMHO
 
Nokia's success was built on its design - it made desirable looking phones that worked well, and were simple to use.

They forgot that around about 2002 / 3, they started getting over complicated, a beautifully simple OS got complicated and things began the march south.

Their issues predate the smartphone boom and Apple, as the likes of Samsung and Sony were already eating into it's market share.

Post smartphone boom you're best hope is probably that Nokia replaces Samsung as android standard bearer. A Nokia OS is pointless unless they are going to sell in large numbers or Nokia somehow owns plenty content. The Eco system is key and to have a viable one isn't easy, just ask Microsoft.
 
The thing is, they've already had an ecosystem in place through Symbian before that word was even a cellphone thing.
 
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