AHC: Japanese Civil War

As said. Make a situational POD, in the 1800s, where the political situation is fragmented enough that a shogunate dies later and the different Japanese major clans fight each other constantly for power.
 
As said. Make a situational POD, in the 1800s, where the political situation is fragmented enough that a shogunate dies later and the different Japanese major clans fight each other constantly for power.

So a repeat of the Sengoku era? At this point any civil war is most likely going to be between the Imperialists and the Shogunate.
 
So a repeat of the Sengoku era? At this point any civil war is most likely going to be between the Imperialists and the Shogunate.
What I thought was that a desire to replace the emperor back to power was only developed during the 1860s. What if there was enough political disintegration within Japan that somebody wanted to replace the Tokugawa shogunate and become shogun when Tokugawa Ieyoshi died in 1853? Would that make a replica of a 19th-century Sengoku era?
 
What I thought was that a desire to replace the emperor back to power was only developed during the 1860s. What if there was enough political disintegration within Japan that somebody wanted to replace the Tokugawa shogunate and become shogun when Tokugawa Ieyoshi died in 1853? Would that make a replica of a 19th-century Sengoku era?

Actually the idea of returning power to the Imperial court had bin building for some time. I'm not sure WHEN it started during the 19th century but it was heavily strengthened by the arrival of the American Black ships and the subsequent capitulation by the Shogunate. I don't think the idea of a new Shogunate was ever seriously considered, even when everyone knew the Tokugawas were soon going to fall. And at this point, the age of Imperialism, a second Sengoku era would be a disaster. Various Daimyo would ally with foreign powers to try to gain in edge over their rivals, transforming themselves into Protectorates of the great powers. Essentially the era of the Meiji restoration would become a Japanese version of the 19th-20th century Qing Dynasty, with certain ports being ceded to the great powers, and others being granted extra national rights, like Shanghai. A new civil war would be a death blow to the Japanese Nation. At least that's my opinion on the matter.
 
Actually the idea of returning power to the Imperial court had bin building for some time. I'm not sure WHEN it started during the 19th century but it was heavily strengthened by the arrival of the American Black ships and the subsequent capitulation by the Shogunate. I don't think the idea of a new Shogunate was ever seriously considered, even when everyone knew the Tokugawas were soon going to fall. And at this point, the age of Imperialism, a second Sengoku era would be a disaster. Various Daimyo would ally with foreign powers to try to gain in edge over their rivals, transforming themselves into Protectorates of the great powers. Essentially the era of the Meiji restoration would become a Japanese version of the 19th-20th century Qing Dynasty, with certain ports being ceded to the great powers, and others being granted extra national rights, like Shanghai. A new civil war would be a death blow to the Japanese Nation. At least that's my opinion on the matter.
How willing were the daimyos to start another civil war then? I don't think they'll be very eager to start another civil war that is so destructive, unless the position as a Shogun was very appealing...
 
How willing were the daimyos to start another civil war then? I don't think they'll be very eager to start another civil war that is so destructive, unless the position as a Shogun was very appealing...

Not very. Most Daimyo were content under the Shogunate. It was only two Domains, Sesuma and Chōshū, that really spearheaded the Meiji restoration.
 
We already the Sengoku period, and the emperor wanting to restore his power is nothing new, look at the Nanboku-cho period. The Daimyo that were really were the ones who sided with the Tokugawa, all the rest usually supported the Tokugawa, because they all had attend court for half the year.
 
Not very. Most Daimyo were content under the Shogunate. It was only two Domains, Sesuma and Chōshū, that really spearheaded the Meiji restoration.
Then perhaps we can arrange a civil war between the Kyushu island-based "Empire of Japan" and the Honshu-based "Shogunate Republic of Japan", with independent "Kingdom of Ezo" and "Ryukyu Kingdom" under direct foreign sphere of influences. Such a situation may be quite easy to arrange, although I would need help on finding the POD.
 
Then perhaps we can arrange a civil war between the Kyushu island-based "Empire of Japan" and the Honshu-based "Shogunate Republic of Japan", with independent "Kingdom of Ezo" and "Ryukyu Kingdom" under direct foreign sphere of influences. Such a situation may be quite easy to arrange, although I would need help on finding the POD.

Not likely. First off, Kyushu is most likely to fall under foreign influence, as it held the only ports that were open to foreign trade. Plus I can't see the Imperial Court abandoning Kyoto. Most likely we would see Honshu Divided in two, with the central and southern areas owing loyalty to Kyoto and the northern central and Northern areas going to Edo. Hokkaido would also likely be loyal to Edo as well. Not sure about Shikoku, it could end up independent/foreign influenced, or loyal to Kyoto. It could go to the Shogunate, but I feel that's unlikely. Ryukyu will probably remain independent/Chinese. The most likely time for this to happen is the Meiji Restoration. Have the Shogun not willingly give up power and fight instead. That way the Shogunate would retain some of its influence. IDK how long it would last though. Most likely one or the other would turn to a great Power, Britain or France most likely, for aid in exchange for concessions.
 
The most likely time for this to happen is the Meiji Restoration. Have the Shogun not willingly give up power and fight instead. That way the Shogunate would retain some of its influence. IDK how long it would last though. Most likely one or the other would turn to a great Power, Britain or France most likely, for aid in exchange for concessions.
^^ This is pretty much the only scenario that gets close to a civil war. The issue was that Japan had seen what had happened to China and realized how outmatched they were. Japanese pride being what it was, they really couldn't stand for that but the issue was really that they didn't know how best to deal with it. When the shogunate was perceived as weak and indecisive in the face of the "western barbarians" the nation ended up turning to the only person who allowed the shogunate to exist: the emperor.

So if anything I think you need to have a shogunate that's slightly stronger than OTL but not strong enough to keep the call for the restoration to go through. In the end you may end up with a situation similar to what Constantine put up: 2 sides going at it in Honshu (with Shikoku falling to either side) and Kyushu being controlled by foreign powers until the dust settles.
 
Not likely. First off, Kyushu is most likely to fall under foreign influence, as it held the only ports that were open to foreign trade. Plus I can't see the Imperial Court abandoning Kyoto. Most likely we would see Honshu Divided in two, with the central and southern areas owing loyalty to Kyoto and the northern central and Northern areas going to Edo. Hokkaido would also likely be loyal to Edo as well. Not sure about Shikoku, it could end up independent/foreign influenced, or loyal to Kyoto. It could go to the Shogunate, but I feel that's unlikely. Ryukyu will probably remain independent/Chinese. The most likely time for this to happen is the Meiji Restoration. Have the Shogun not willingly give up power and fight instead. That way the Shogunate would retain some of its influence. IDK how long it would last though. Most likely one or the other would turn to a great Power, Britain or France most likely, for aid in exchange for concessions.
Then, perhaps, what is a possible scenario where the Imperial Court abandons Kyoto? Would they prefer to die there....?
 
^^ This is pretty much the only scenario that gets close to a civil war. The issue was that Japan had seen what had happened to China and realized how outmatched they were. Japanese pride being what it was, they really couldn't stand for that but the issue was really that they didn't know how best to deal with it. When the shogunate was perceived as weak and indecisive in the face of the "western barbarians" the nation ended up turning to the only person who allowed the shogunate to exist: the emperor.

So if anything I think you need to have a shogunate that's slightly stronger than OTL but not strong enough to keep the call for the restoration to go through. In the end you may end up with a situation similar to what Constantine put up: 2 sides going at it in Honshu (with Shikoku falling to either side) and Kyushu being controlled by foreign powers until the dust settles.
Maybe there is a way to prolong the "civil war" that may go on between the shogun and emperor? And I think Kyushu would still be free from foreign intervention, as they were the most active in modernizing and have already acquired some western battleships? They may actually become the economic powerhouse to the "New Japanese Empire"....
 
Then, perhaps, what is a possible scenario where the Imperial Court abandons Kyoto? Would they prefer to die there....?

No. The Imperial Court would NOT abandon Kyoto. And even if they did the only place I can see them fleeing to would be a former capital, which are all in the Kinki region. So they wouldn't flee to Kyushu. If anything the Court would remain neutral, abandoning each side.

Maybe there is a way to prolong the "civil war" that may go on between the shogun and emperor? And I think Kyushu would still be free from foreign intervention, as they were the most active in modernizing and have already acquired some western battleships? They may actually become the economic powerhouse to the "New Japanese Empire"....

Thats the first I've ever hear of Kyushu being modernized. The most likely first region to modernize would be Kanto. And I think your misunderstanding some things. Kyushu wasn't an independent nation, so they hand NO battleships or fleets. The individual Daimyos may have had some ships but anything battleship sized would belong to the Tokugawa Shogunate, so they would probably be in Kanto. As for a longer civil war, you could have earlier Tokugawa military modernization. The French military sent a mission to Japan in 1867 so if they send one earlier, say in 1863-64, then maybe the Shogunate forces would be able to stand against the Imperialist forces.
 
Actually the idea of returning power to the Imperial court had bin building for some time. I'm not sure WHEN it started during the 19th century but it was heavily strengthened by the arrival of the American Black ships and the subsequent capitulation by the Shogunate. I don't think the idea of a new Shogunate was ever seriously considered, even when everyone knew the Tokugawas were soon going to fall. And at this point, the age of Imperialism, a second Sengoku era would be a disaster. Various Daimyo would ally with foreign powers to try to gain in edge over their rivals, transforming themselves into Protectorates of the great powers. Essentially the era of the Meiji restoration would become a Japanese version of the 19th-20th century Qing Dynasty, with certain ports being ceded to the great powers, and others being granted extra national rights, like Shanghai. A new civil war would be a death blow to the Japanese Nation. At least that's my opinion on the matter.

Just a note; Returning power to the Imperial Court dates well before the Black Ships. The Imperial-centric politics has its roots in the development of Japanese political philosophy during the late 18th and early 19th century; during which many Japanese thinkers began to envision Japan as being a potential rival to China; potentially unseating it as the 'Middle Kingdom.' It was, for all purposes, the independent development of nationalism parallel to Europe; curiously enough; almost entirely in the same time period.
 
No. The Imperial Court would NOT abandon Kyoto. And even if they did the only place I can see them fleeing to would be a former capital, which are all in the Kinki region. So they wouldn't flee to Kyushu. If anything the Court would remain neutral, abandoning each side.

Thats the first I've ever hear of Kyushu being modernized. The most likely first region to modernize would be Kanto. And I think your misunderstanding some things. Kyushu wasn't an independent nation, so they hand NO battleships or fleets. The individual Daimyos may have had some ships but anything battleship sized would belong to the Tokugawa Shogunate, so they would probably be in Kanto. As for a longer civil war, you could have earlier Tokugawa military modernization. The French military sent a mission to Japan in 1867 so if they send one earlier, say in 1863-64, then maybe the Shogunate forces would be able to stand against the Imperialist forces.

"Despite the bombardment of Kagoshima, the Satsuma domain had become closer to the British and was pursuing the modernization of its army and navy with their support.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boshin_war#cite_note-8The Scottish dealer Thomas Blake Glover sold quantities of warships and guns to the southern domains. American and British military experts, usually former officers, may have been directly involved in this military effort."
-http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boshin_war#Foreign_military_assistance
Satsuma domain is in Kyushu. I'd consider that as "Kyushu being modernized"... although I certainly did not make specific what I meant by saying "modernize".
Also, upon the question of (un)moving the Imperial capital....could not the young Meiji emperor be persuaded to find "temporary refuge" in Satsuma? He's 15, maybe he'll be gullible enough....
 
I'm sorry, but I'm confused. Wasn't there already a civil war when the Meiji Restoration happened? I know it was short, but it was still a civil war.
A civil war, yeah... but I was more looking for a multi-sided civil war, like the Chinese civil war between warlords. It seems that is quite not possible.
 
A civil war, yeah... but I was more looking for a multi-sided civil war, like the Chinese civil war between warlords. It seems that is quite not possible.

I don't think we would really see that. I mean I can see a Imperialist vs Shogunate with Foreign backing for one or both sides, but not multi-sided. You would see some internal despute among the two factions but not much more. Nor are you likely to see Foreign troops involved. Maybe, if Britain gets involved, we'll see the Royal Navy shelling a few coastal bases/cities but not much more.
 
I don't think we would really see that. I mean I can see a Imperialist vs Shogunate with Foreign backing for one or both sides, but not multi-sided. You would see some internal despute among the two factions but not much more. Nor are you likely to see Foreign troops involved. Maybe, if Britain gets involved, we'll see the Royal Navy shelling a few coastal bases/cities but not much more.
How long could this "civil war" go on? Could this war become something like the Taiping Rebellion, where it takes more than 10 years for somebody to gain victory?
 
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