Slovak National Uprising 1944 successful

OK, mine first here after few years hanging around.

On August 29 1944 Slovak Army and resistance uprising against pro German regime started. Original plan was to open Carpathian passes for Soviets and move the front line without much fighting in Slovakia towards borders with Protectorate Bohmen unf Mahren.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slovak_National_Uprising

Unfortunately uprising started prematurely after some partisans units actions against German military and civilian personal transferring through Slovakia. Germans started with occupation of the country and disarming Slovak Eastern army which was suppose to open east Carpathian passes after chaos in command of this Army - general Augustin Malar, famous from commanding Slovak fast division on Eastern front flew to Bratislava and tried to calm down situation as he felt Uprising was premature. His speech on Slovak radio didn't help, as Germans were already acting and his popularity with Slovak troops only slow down reactions to Germans. His deputy deserted to Soviet side on board of planes which took of from Eastern Slovakia towards Soviets lines. Without proper command Germans managed to disarm Slovak Eastern Army, which was best equipped part of Slovak military. General Malar was arrested on his return to Eastern Slovakia after his plane landed at airport near Presov and later probably executed in German camp in Flossenburg concentration camp - his fate is not now till this date. However some units, mostly under command of Colonel Mikulas Markus managed to fight German units in Eastern Slovakia and eventually made their way to central Slovakia where they joined 1st Czechoslovak Army of 18 000 at start and 60 000 at the highest level which fought Germans forces from late August till end of the October.

Leftover of Slovak Air force at airport Tri Duby and 1st Czechoslovak fighter regiment with La-5FN managed to contest German air superiority over central Slovakia for 2 moths. Bi-planes of Slovak insurgent Airforce even managed two last victories of bi-planes in history. Fighter pilot of Avia B-534 shot down Hungarian Ju-52 and gunner of bomber Letov S-328 shot down German Fw-189 which attacked his plane.


Now to POD, what if after premature start of Uprising General Augustin Malar doesn't leave for Bratislava but starts actions against Germans right away. Slovak managed to hold central Slovakia OTL. There is high probability that with Germans not able to move troops through Central Slovakia 9main Railway from Protektorate to Kosice (Kassa in Hungarian hands at the time).

With Eastern Slovakia in hands of Slovak army, Soviet troops and Czechoslovak armed corps could move through Slovakia and will avoid fights in mountains on the border - from late August to October 1944 and then in Slovak mountains from October 1944 till April 1945.

How would it change Soviets Strategy? German South flank will be open to attacks from Slovakia towards Budapest and Vienna in early September/ October. German Northern flank probably wouldn't be so exposed as Carpathians are covering it but still Soviets could be able to push towards Ostrava - mines and steel works in area and towards industrial bases in Moravia.

I like this Divergance greatly, its not one I've heard of being used before.

The repurcussions are interesting certainly.

It could result in greater Soviet gains in Germany along with Soviets having a better Reputation in Slovakia.

omnimercurial said:

I like this Divergance greatly, its not one I've heard of being used before.

The repurcussions are interesting certainly.

It could result in greater Soviet gains in Germany along with Soviets having a better Reputation in Slovakia.

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Thank you, I was thinking about this POD for a while now, I was just waiting for August 29 to start the Uprising as it was suppose to be.

Of course, there is more to it. Even when Uprising failed, some circles in Hungary were tring to change sides afterwards anyway. In October 1944 some commanding officers of Hungarian 1st army in Carpathians were planning to change sides, of course it failed and few of them deserted. Anyway, with Romania and afterwards Slovakia successfully changing sides, Hungary could be more sucesfull in that too, this way whole German southern flank would be gone with one whole army cut of at Greece and Yougoslavia with only route to retreat by coast of Adriatic towards Slovenia and Austria and this one under constant partisans attack. Nice mess.

As to Soviets reputation in Slovakia, even if people were not pro communist, they were certainly not much anti Soviet/ Russian. Of course it was not perfect, some soviet troops crimes against civilians, deportations etc. On the other side, Poland or Hungary got it much worst.

Of course if Slovaks would manage to open front for Soviets, there are some possibilities Soviets could keep Slovakia quasi independent, but would they? Would it be worth the trouble for them?

This could be a real break for the Soviets, if they are flexible enough to exploit it.If the Slovak Resistance can hold Eastern and Central Slovakia for more than two to three weeks, then as long as they also get the Dukla Pass open, at 15 miles per day, the Soviets can be at the town now known as Gottwaldov in Morava (or at whatever defenses the Germans have put together in the Little Carpathians protecting Moravia) in two weeks and at the edge of Bratislava, by following the valley of the Vah, in 19-20 days. In that time also, they can be on the Hungarian border opposite Budapest, less than 30 miles from that city, practically within artillery range. If General Horthy orders an armistice at that point, the order likely will be obeyed and Hungary will surrender in Septmember 1944 instead of fighting on doggedly until February 1945. Abductions of Jews to Auschwitz will cease by this time, and there is a good chance that elements of General Konev's Army can take the low 1700 foot Jablunkov Pass, cut off Krakow and Katowice and liberate Auschwitz in September or October 1944, saving hundreds of thousands of lives ITTL..
At that point, there are a number of further divergences. Will the German line stiffen for a few months? Or can the Russians exploit a weakness in German lines and push through into Moravia and then into Bohemia and Austria, perhaps bypassing a "porcupined" Vienna. Or the Russians can send troops south to Graz, Zagreb and on to Northern Italy. Or, as the Germans shift troops south to deal with Konev, General Zhukov becomes more active in Poland. This is how Stalin's "Ten blows" (see Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stalin's_ten_blows worked. Hit the Germans hard in one section of their front, and then, when they diverted troops to deal with that section, hit them hard in another weak spot that the diversion opened up, taking advantage of any opportunity to cut off German troops from the Reich that could be created. So once this POD plays out, many other PODs result from it. That's what makes this TL so fascinating.

Ooh! I like the idea of Soviets in Northern Italy!

Lots of delicious (Fafalle) butterflies from OTL!

A link up with the Partisans & Sympathetic Alpini in the Mountains could provide intel boosts as to what is current Situation along with a list of choice targets.
Also if a reliable logistics & supply route can be secured then things could get very interesting with the Yanks & Brits etc coming from the South (Or not depending on butterflies)

I'd really like to read how a Red Italy or even partitioned Italy might develop as there are not any Timelines featuring such as far as I have seen.

Katchen, actually, Jews deportation from Hungary came to my mind just few minutes ago while having my coffee. If it front opened, at that time Hungarian town Kosice would be in Soviet/ Slovak hands in no time and Kosice served as one of major transport hubs for transportation of Jews from Kassa (Kosice) area and northern Hungary. Also with no Szalaszi in powers in late 1944, much more would be never deported. Just that would save thousands.

As to Slovak insurgents holding central Slovakia. They hold it OTL for two months. Of course Vah/ Vag valley and towns on border with Moravia fell quickly to German hands, but with enough Soviets pouring in, they may be able to recapture. Of course, question is quick Soviet reaction, but if front lines open, Presov and later Kosice in hands of hands of Slovaks/ Soviets, there was railway line from Presov to Poland and major one from Presov/ Kosice towards Zilina and Moravian border. Also Vah valley hold ammunition, small arms and artillery factories with some production lines built in reinforced underground facilities by prewar Czechoslovak government. Bombed few time by US Air Force in late 1944 without much success for underground facilities.

I am not sure if Soviets would push towards northern Italy, but definitely they may go after Vienna along Danube and maybe towards borders with western Germany. This by itself may cut German forces in Italy from Germany proper.

Also with Slovakia liberated si quickly app additional 150 000 To 200 000 ( not counting app 60 000 in Slovak army at the time) Slovaks could be drafted into Czechoslovak units, giving some boost towards liberation of Czech lands without loosin months in Slovak mountains (OTL around 70 000 were drafted after slow liberation of Slovakia).

Actually, for few years I am working on something similar joint Romanian/ Hungarian Slovak switch of sides.

KACKO said:

Now to POD, what if after premature start of Uprising General Augustin Malar doesn't leave for Bratislava but starts actions against Germans right away. Slovak managed to hold central Slovakia OTL. There is high probability that with Germans not able to move troops through Central Slovakia 9main Railway from Protektorate to Kosice (Kassa in Hungarian hands at the time).

With Eastern Slovakia in hands of Slovak army, Soviet troops and Czechoslovak armed corps could move through Slovakia and will avoid fights in mountains on the border - from late August to October 1944 and then in Slovak mountains from October 1944 till April 1945.

How would it change Soviets Strategy?

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Very interesting and novel PoD!

The German southern flank was already in collapse; this makes it a lot worse. Probably all German forces in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Albania, and southern and central Yugoslavia have to sauve qui peut instead of withdrawing in even partial order. Losses will be substantially greater.

The Germans can outrun the Soviet pursuit, which is supply-bound, but they won't be able to rally till west of Budapest, at the end of September or mid-October. That's the border of the Reich.

This will have limited effect north of the Carpathians, as the Soviets there had stalled at the end of July, and remained inactive until January 1945. A small southern part of the Polish front will be outflanked.

Knock-ons will include much less damage and casualties in Hungary and Slovakia, and in Yugoslavia and Greece to a lesser degree. Probably several hundred thousand Hungarian Jews will escape murder.

Knock-ons elsewhere: the crisis of the Eastern Front is much graver than OTL, and the Germans will have to weaken other sectors in response. What are the repercussions for Italy, France, and Belgium? Does the Italian Front rupture again for want of reinforcements in October to November?

It's too late to affect MARKET-GARDEN, but what about the fighting in Lorraine and Alsace? Further down the road, will Hitler even be able to attempt the "Bulge" counteroffensive?

Overall, it might shorten the war by a month or two months. (Which is a lot, the war had only 9 months left OTL.)

That has knock-ons for the Pacific - the Soviets may enter the Pacific War well before the U.S. has atom bombs to drop on Japan.

Well Rich, my thought was, that this will now offer new opportunities for Soviets North of Carpathians but I never thought of offering Soviets early opening against Japan.

But now back to Malar, would be Slovak Eastern Army, app 50 000 strong able to open Carpathians for Soviets if led by Malar ( which was awarded Knigt Cross by Germans, and they didn't waste it too much on their Allies as we know). My belief is that if he managed to open the passes, even bit slower Soviets reaction could gain the grounds, as Slovaks were able to hold the area in center Slovakia. OTL Uprising started 29 th but, 31st Germans started actions to disarm Slovak Eastern Army, so with some really active commander, there are two days to mess up German deffensive positions in Carpathians.

The Soviet Union's problem, as other listmembers have repeatedly pointed out, is long supply lines. When a large enemy army such as the Hungarian Army (175,000) surrenders, that problem is partially alleviated as that army's supplies can be incorporated into the Soviet Army (though it takes some time to regroup and incorporate all this war materiel.
Unlike the Wallies, the Soviets fight thrifty. They cannot and do not destroy enemy war materiel and ordnance because they cannot afford to destroy enemy war materiel and ordnance. And they will accept volunteers from liberated people that they find along the way, and incorporate them into the Soviet Army, as they did Russian and Jewish Partisans in Russia and Poland and as they will be doing, the 50,000 Slovak Partisans minus the people that are needed to keep control of Slovakia from the Tisoists. And the same in Hungary, though Hungary has a bigger internal security problem because of the fascist Arrow Cross (as Romania does the Iron Guard).
By moving south, General Konev may not only be opening up the Eastern Front equivalent of the breaktrhough at Sedan, if he can get to Brno and Ostrava, he is in a position to absorb supplies and men from Bulgaria, which has joined the war, Hungary (though how many men is in question since Hungary is a defeated enemy, but certainly the supplies) and Slovakia. And if Stalin OKs sending columns through Croatia into Northern Italy, he may be able to isolate Kesselring's half million troops and not only get joint occupation rights of Italy, but perhaps more importantly, get Kesselring's supplies and ordnance instead of having the Wallies destroy it all. And maybe get some of the Wallies supplies if the Italian Front is no longer going to be active.. And perhaps more important still, get as many of TIto's partisans as possible into Red Army units and fighting the Germans in Czechy, Austria and Germany, which will make it easier to control Tito when the war is over.
What this means is that the Soviet (or is it still called the Red) Army may be able to solve it's supply problem, it can shorten the war and occupy more of Germany before any conference with the Wallies fixes occupation zones. Things will certainly be different. For example, expect Czechy and Slovakia to be separate countries ITTL and each have communist governments instead of the prewar govt. returning to power. Austria may be a completely Soviet show. Perhaps the Anschluss will not be reversed and the Soviet occupation zone will be in South Germany adjacent to North Italy rather than East Germany. Maybe Konev goes to the Rhine and Zhukov stops at the Oder or Berlin. Lots of possiiblities here.

It's exciting I agree!

I'd really like to see a TL result from this!

So many opportunities & it's such a fresh divergance too!

So many other divergence points feel a bit overly familiar but this has got my Neurons firing for sure!

I'd say most of the Slovak soldiers find themselves thrown into suicidal positions as the Soviets move off to the side to let them make a last stand against Axis forces. Not so much as to protect Russian lives as to deal with future competitors. Unless is meant that the Slovaks gain their own SSR after the war.

Clandango said:

I'd say most of the Slovak soldiers find themselves thrown into suicidal positions as the Soviets move off to the side to let them make a last stand against Axis forces. Not so much as to protect Russian lives as to deal with future competitors. Unless is meant that the Slovaks gain their own SSR after the war.

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Well, OTL Uprising had at the highest 60 000, after defeat some went to mountains, some managed to get home and some were captured and sent to POW camps or were incorporated into new Tiso's army. I am not sure if Soviets would do really nothing, if Eastern Army will open the front for them. But if they managed that and Soviets didn't move or move very slowly, they still can just go to Soviet side. Uprising in central Slovakia in that case would go as OTL. BTW there were some among Slovak communist who actually proposed creation of Slovak SSR.

I'm curious about what this could mean for the postwar map of Europe. Will there never be Czechoslovak reunification? Will the final front lines in Germany be different?

katchen said:

What this means is that the Soviet (or is it still called the Red) Army may be able to solve it's supply problem, it can shorten the war and occupy more of Germany before any conference with the Wallies fixes occupation zones. Things will certainly be different. For example, expect Czechy and Slovakia to be separate countries ITTL and each have communist governments instead of the prewar govt. returning to power. Austria may be a completely Soviet show. Perhaps the Anschluss will not be reversed and the Soviet occupation zone will be in South Germany adjacent to North Italy rather than East Germany. Maybe Konev goes to the Rhine and Zhukov stops at the Oder or Berlin. Lots of possiiblities here.

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I'm going to keep saying this again and again. The Germans will send whatever forces they have available to whatever sector is the most threatened. If the Soviets reach Austria early, the Germans will divert forces from other sectors to stop them there, and the Allies will have more success in other sectors (Poland, France, Italy). If the US/UK broke out of Normandy early, the Germans would divert forces from other sectors to France, and the Allies would be more successful in Italy, Hungary, and Poland. Etc.

Koniev on the Rhine? By the date of the Slovak rising, the US/UK had already overrun nearly all of France. Koniev might be fighting for Vienna in October - but in October the US and French armies are fighting for Lorraine and Alsace.

A separate Slovak state is an interesting possibility though.

Rich Rostrom said:

I'm going to keep saying this again and again. The Germans will send whatever forces they have available to whatever sector is the most threatened. If the Soviets reach Austria early, the Germans will divert forces from other sectors to stop them there, and the Allies will have more success in other sectors (Poland, France, Italy). If the US/UK broke out of Normandy early, the Germans would divert forces from other sectors to France, and the Allies would be more successful in Italy, Hungary, and Poland. Etc.

Koniev on the Rhine? By the date of the Slovak rising, the US/UK had already overrun nearly all of France. Koniev might be fighting for Vienna in October - but in October the US and French armies are fighting for Lorraine and Alsace.

A separate Slovak state is an interesting possibility though.

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Well, logistic is the name of the game. So even with open Carpathians, no hold up in Slovak mountains etc., Soviets may get earlier to Czech lands, Hungary may be able to switch sides too, Army group E may be cut off at Balkans, Austria may be taken by Soviets whole.
Germans will be pressed to put available forces to threatened sectors, so probably no Ardennes, no offensives in Hungary and southern Slovakia. War may end up month or two earlier. Definitelly no Soviets on the Rhine. Maybe in Munich, Soviets may be able to cut off German supplie lines to Italy. But, thousands of lives would be saved at the end.

As to Slovakia staying independent, when Uprising started, the leaders, military and political proclaimed themselves as part of Czechoslovakia, army in Slovakia was named " 1st Czechoslovak Army in Slovakia". The aim was to go for Federal Czechoslovakia. Actually, OTL, Czech general Heriold Pika, head of Czechoslovak military mission in Moscow, wrote to Benes, that Czechoslovak army after war has to give functions to Slovaks, create Slovak units stationed in Slovakia etc. Shortly after war it was really done, but later, especially with communist take over, everything change to old ways, except, Slovaks were able to gain functions in Czechoslovak army, but were stationed mostly in Czech lands.

A POSSIBLE TIMELINE to this?

29 August 1944: The uprising starts and it is successful.
20 September 1944: The soviets capture Bratislava.
October 1944: The Soviets, after 'liberating' Austria, reach the Swiss border.
German troops in Italy evacuate to avoid being cut off.The butterflies ensure that Operation Marguerite wasn't carried out or fails and Hungary asks for peace. The Germans troops evacuating the Balkans and Hungary are cut off and were destroyed by Yugoslavian partisans and the Red Army.The Germans manage to evacuate 25 divisions from Italy.
November 1944: With the evacuation of Germans forces in Italy, the allies finish the Italian campaign and transfer troops to the western front [except for a few divisions for occupation duties]. The Germans send 10 divisions to defend from Czechoslovak army and the rest are ordered to reinforce the western front for the Battle of the Bulge.
December 1944: The Battle of the Bulge is launched. It is slightly more or less successful but still fails.
January 1945: The Germans launch their last offensive in Alsace. The Red Army launches the Vistula Oder offensive.
February 1945:The buterflies mean that the Soviets continue their offensive to relatively undefended Berlin with an army group. Germany surrenders on 8 March 1945.
June 1945: The Soviets declare war on Japan. Japan surrenders on 15 June/August 1945 [depending on events.]