WI:Japan partioned by European Powers?

What if Japan become partitioned by European Powers like its neighbor China or worse become the subject of a Berlin Conference-esque treaty?
What would the consequences be on the balance of power in Europe?
How would Japan fare when decolonization happens?
And how would this affect Korea?

Captain 'Merica said:

What if Japan become partitioned by European Powers like its neighbor China or worse become the subject of a Berlin Conference-esque treaty?
What would the consequences be on the balance of power in Europe?
How would Japan fare when decolonization happens?
And how would this affect Korea?

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My first thought was the anime Horizon in the Middle of Nowhere! But in all seriousness, how would this come about? It would have to be before the Meiji Restoration and at that point no one was interested in making Japan, or rather parts of it, into colonies.

Emperor Constantine said:

My first thought was the anime Horizon in the Middle of Nowhere! But in all seriousness, how would this come about? It would have to be before the Meiji Restoration and at that point no one was interested in making Japan, or rather parts of it, into colonies.

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Well some of the Western Expeditions to Japan such as the Shimonoseki Campaign, and Bombardment_of_Kagoshima are reminiscent of ongoings in China. It's not hard to Imagine if Britain or France had opened up Japan it would have been much more violent. And the order to expel barbarians could easily result in a Boxer War situation.

It is worth mentioning that China was never partitioned, but European powers were given numerous extraterritorial rights, as well as significant concessions. At first, this was due to China being too big to swallow, and later because European powers for their own reasons wished to preserve the Qing Dynasty.

Zmflavius said:

It is worth mentioning that China was never partitioned, but European powers were given numerous extraterritorial rights, as well as significant concessions. At first, this was due to China being too big to swallow, and later because European powers for their own reasons wished to preserve the Qing Dynasty.

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Yeah, I meant concession, but it would probably be easier for Japan to be partitioned.

There were concessions in Japan, they just were not as large. The same concern over unequal treaties existed for Japan in the Meiji period as did for the Chinese as late as World War II.

If the Satsuma Rebellion included the public execution of foreigners, or an attack towards foreign-leased territories, perhaps a Boxer Rebellion-type war would ensue, with a united foreign forces crushing the rebellion and partitioning Japan amongst themselves for compensation.

On second thought- what good would come with the partitioning of Japan? there aren't much natural resources in any of the four islands.....

zeppelinair said:

On second thought- what good would come with the partitioning of Japan? there aren't much natural resources in any of the four islands.....

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I think the most likely option would just have larger concessions in Japan. To keep Japan in line, but that still can have some huge butterflies for the twentieth century.

Portugal did a lot of trading with Japan and I believe they were on very good terms with the southern Daimyo and particularly the Christian ones. Have one of the clans that was friendly with Portugal agree to let them build a fort/protectorate type agreement in exchange for military assistance. In general the Sengoku Jidai seems like the perfect opportunity for Japan to be colonized what with the internecine warfare and assorted Daimyo.

zeppelinair said:

On second thought- what good would come with the partitioning of Japan? there aren't much natural resources in any of the four islands.....

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For Europeans, Japan's principle value was in location, not resources. Japan is rather nicely placed as a coaling, resupply, and fueling stop for crossing the Pacific or traveling north from Indonesia, especially if you're trying to reach China.

zeppelinair said:

On second thought- what good would come with the partitioning of Japan? there aren't much natural resources in any of the four islands.....

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Then you dont mind me taking the silk concession for a token sum

So...what would the major powers that divide Japan be? If this was in the 1870s, after the Satsuma Rebellion, would it be a USA-Russia-Britain-France divide? Would China be able to participate in the acquisition of "Japanese Hong Kong"'s? I'm guessing it may just result in the independence of Hokkaido and Ryukyu islands...

waiting for answer....

Well, I personally think the power with the greatest interest would be Russia. Russia was already expanding into Manchuria and had interests in Korea. From there, if Japan fails to modernize, Japan is the next logical step; solidifying Russia's foothold in the Northwest Pacific. Russia would probably target Hokkaido (most likely), or Chugoku (from Korea). Perhaps Kyushu as well. The US is next. Japan much resembles the Philippines as the gateway to China, but to North instead of South China. Britain is next, in order to extend its network in East Asia. France I don't see as being very likely at all.

I don't see China is very likely either; barring a Chinese Meiji Restoration that leads to them taking Japan's place. If that's the case, however, while Chinese imperialism may be a thing (concentrated mostly in the traditional Chinese tributary states, it has the significant advantage of being a traditional world power, with the largest population on Earth, and abundant natural resources). These things all work to cancel out the main incentives for Japanese imperialism. If China grabs slices of Japan, most likely is the Ryukyu Islands, as a traditional Chinese tributary state and a useful eastern base.

zeppelinair said:

On second thought- what good would come with the partitioning of Japan? there aren't much natural resources in any of the four islands.....

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This is the biggest single obstacle to any power wasting the money and personnel to conquer the country; there simply is nothing to gain.

Map I made of the sphere's/concessions of influence

Pink: British Sphere
Dark Blue: American Sphere
Blue: French Sphere
Yellow: Japanese Rump State
Dark Yellow: Russian Sphere
Multicolored: Legation Quarters

Captain 'Merica said:

Map I made of the sphere's/concessions of influence
[IMAGE]
Pink: British Sphere
Dark Blue: American Sphere
Blue: French Sphere
Yellow: Japanese Rump State
Dark Yellow: Russian Sphere
Multicolored: Legation Quarters

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How/why would this particular system of partition be devised and implemented?

Wendell said:

How/why would this particular system of partition be devised and implemented?

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I was thinking of the Chinese spheres of influence after The Boxer Rebellion. So I based the map after a similar event in Japan. Britain had interests in Kyushu so I gave the island, and the southern portion of Honshu to them. Both the US, and France had interests in the area directly controlled by the Shogunate so I split it between them. And Russia got Hokkaido, Korea, and Sakhalin because they had the most interest in the area. The rump state got the least valuable regions and the capitol of Kyoto.

to partition japan you first have to conquer it. afaik, japan, at any point in its history, had a population dwarfing that of great britain, so it could raise apropriate armies. it's also far smaller than china and more densly populated, getting large forces to enemy landings wouldnt be a big issue.

they also know (and have used) of western weapons and tactics since the 16th century and can build their own ships, and if the british try a blockade they'd probably laugh at them in their splendid isolation.