Lets say Russian Foreign Minister Alexander Izvolsky anticipates the British will never allow the Russians to have the straits.
So instead of OTL he never contacts Austro-Hungarian Foreign Minister Alois Aehrenthal about a proposal of reciprocal changes to the 1878 Treaty of Berlin in favour of the Russian interest in Constantinople and Austro-Hungarian interests in the annexation of Bosnia-Herzegovina.
So Bosnia Crisis does not happen and everything is still 1907 status quo: Austria is in occupatipon of Bosnia (but technically still part of Turkey), Austria is still in possesion of the Sanjak of Novibazar, Bulgaria hasn't declared its independence.
Consequences:
a) Does Balkan wars happen? (seems better for Turkey not to defend the Sanjak)
b) Does World War 1 still happen?
c) Could things remain 1907 status quo forever in the Balkans?
So instead of OTL he never contacts Austro-Hungarian Foreign Minister Alois Aehrenthal about a proposal of reciprocal changes to the 1878 Treaty of Berlin in favour of the Russian interest in Constantinople and Austro-Hungarian interests in the annexation of Bosnia-Herzegovina.
So Bosnia Crisis does not happen and everything is still 1907 status quo: Austria is in occupatipon of Bosnia (but technically still part of Turkey), Austria is still in possesion of the Sanjak of Novibazar, Bulgaria hasn't declared its independence.
Consequences:
a) Does Balkan wars happen? (seems better for Turkey not to defend the Sanjak)
b) Does World War 1 still happen?
c) Could things remain 1907 status quo forever in the Balkans?