As you wait for another update on my Tiananmen TL, which should come out within these few days (Romania up to December 1989 and Mongolia up to 2013); here comes a rather short timeline, dedicated to my real-life friends. In 2004, just a day before the presidential election, incumbent President Chen Shui-bian and Vice President Annette Lu were shot on the campaign trail.
They were slightly injured, and it was widely believed that the re-election of Chen was a result of the wave of sympathy. Opposition nominee Lien Chan challenged the election results in court, but the appeal was eventually rejected by the High Court. If the bullet simply missed both Chen and Lu, what would happen? How would cross-strait relations have developed under a KMT-PFP coalition government?
Peace Without DignityThey were slightly injured, and it was widely believed that the re-election of Chen was a result of the wave of sympathy. Opposition nominee Lien Chan challenged the election results in court, but the appeal was eventually rejected by the High Court. If the bullet simply missed both Chen and Lu, what would happen? How would cross-strait relations have developed under a KMT-PFP coalition government?
The Election
A day before election day, President Chen Shui-bian was almost assassinated on the campaign trail. Both President Chen and Vice President Lu was not injured, although a police officer was fatally wounded. The incident arguably helped Chen, who was lagging behind in virtually every single poll, but was not enough to save him from eventual defeat in what would become the closest-ever election in Taiwanese history. Former Vice President Lien Chan and his running mate, Chairman James Soong of the People's First Party and the runner-up in the 2000 election, won the election by a razor-thin margin of 1.2%, or about 145,000 votes. Given that the margin of defeat was slightly above 1%, President Chen decided not to challenge the election results.
Transition
Premier Yu Shyi-kun resigned on the request of President Chen Shui-bian, who resigned as Chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party. Chen was succeeded by Yu as DPP chairman, while a bipartisan caretaker cabinet led by Justice Minister Chen Ding-nan was formed, with KMT Vice-chairman Chiang Pin-kung as his deputy. The transition period was initially smooth, despite the bitter election. However, once President-elect Lien Chan announced that he would appoint Vice President-elect James Soong as the next President of the Executive Yuan (Premier), Premier Chen Ding-nan and all DPP cabinet members resigned in protest, leaving Taiwan without a cabinet for a few days.
The move was particularly controversial, as Lien Chan himself was Vice President and Premier at the same time in the mid-1990s, and that it was seen as a dirty deal between Lien Chan and James Soong. The approval rating of Lien stood at merely 43% on his inaugural day, with 45% disapproved. James Soong fared a little bit but not particularly better - 45% approved his performance while 42% disapproved. Lien thus began his presidency with a net negative approval rating.
Cross-strait relations
After his election, Lien and Soong had been tirelessly pushing for the further expansion of the Three Links, even though both Lien and Soong dared not to visit China before the 2004 legislative elections. Following the historic Wang-Chiang Summit between ARATS President Wang Daohan and SEF President Chiang Pin-kung, the first direct commercial flights from China (from Guangzhou) to Taiwan since 1949 arrived in Taipei on September 29, 2004. Reiterating the government's support of the so-called 1992 consensus, direct shipping routes and postal service between mainland China and Taiwan came true by the end of 2004. Commercial flights between China and Taiwan would also become much more regular.
In November 2004, Minister Liu Te-hsun of the Mainland Affairs Council became the highest-ranking incumbent official to visit China, who held a historic "private meeting" with Taiwan Affairs Office Director Chen Yunlin in Xiamen. Liu reiterated the "One China Policy" with different interpretations under the "1992 consensus", and referred the meeting as one between two Chinese officials, sparking huge angry protests in Taiwan and calls for him to step down. Liu refused to step down and was supported by Premier James Soong, who declared the meeting a success, announced plans to commence weekend charter flights by mid-2005.
According to an opinion poll conducted by TVBS, 56% of respondents support further economic ties with mainland China, but at the same time 66% believed that the Lien-Soong government has been too pro-China, and has been selling out Taiwanese sovereignty.
KMT-PFP-NP merger
Due to strong opposition towards the adoption of the party name of "Kuomintang" after the merger, the KMT, PFP and New Party voted to disband themselves to become the New People's Party (Hsinintang/HMT). Lien Chan was elected the first Chairman of Hsinmintang, while James Soong, former EPA director Hau Lung-pin of the New Party, Speaker Wang Jin-pyng, as well as KMT Vice Chairman Wu Po-hsiung became Vice Chairmen. The HMT was formally founded on 10th October 2004, 2 days before the end of the nomination period of the legislative elections; while the First Party Conference was held on 24th November, 2004, 110 years after the formation of the Revive China Society.
Investigation on the assassination attempt of Chen Shui-bian
Following the inauguration of President Lien Chan, an independent commission directly responsible to Premier and Vice President James Soong was established, to look into the assassination attempt of former President Chen.
Just before the legislative elections, former President Lee Teng-hui and various triad members were arrested in connection to the conspiracy against Chen Shui-bian before the election, after a controversial report issued by the so-called independent commission responsible for the investigation process. Former President Lee was accused by the commission to be the one behind the assassination attempt, claiming that the whole incident was not to get rid of Chen, but to improve the latter's electoral prospects. The findings were denounced as ridiculous by the entire Pan-Green camp, followed by huge rallies against the government of James Soong.
Legislative elections, 2004
Initially favored to win a majority of seats, the Hsinmintang or New People's Party (HMT) was forced into a dead heat with the pan-Green camp after the controversial arrest of Lee Teng-hui. Through commercial flights, the Chinese government was accused of helping the HMT in the election by forcing Taiwanese businessmen to return to Taiwan to vote for the HMT. The HMT campaigned on its so-called economic achievement and closer ties with China, while the DPP and Taiwan Solidarity Union under the de facto control of Lee Teng-hui campaigned against what they called the increasingly authoritarian rule and the "betrayal of Taiwan".
The HMT won 107 seats in the election, followed by 90 for the DPP, 18 for the TSU, 5 for the Non-Partisan Solidarity Union and 5 independents. The Pan-Green coalition won 1 more seat than the ruling Hsinmintang, but 5 seats short of a majority.
Speaker election
The surprise defeat of Wang Jin-pyng in speakership election was a stunning blow to the newly formed Hsinmintang and the Lien-Soong government. In February 2005, Lien Chan resigned as Chairman of the ruling HMT, and was replaced by James Soong. James Soong, while remaining as Vice President, resigned as Premier after just 9 months in office, and was replaced by Wang Jin-pyng. Soong himself was not particularly happy about the arrangement, and saw it as a betrayal of Lien Chan. However, such bitterness would soon evaporate in light of a common enemy within the HMT, Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou.
