Challenge: make Korea one of the Great Powers from 1860 to 1960

Nobody tried this one before. It was always China or Japan.
So I thought, why not?
*note: do not make a North Korea Best Korea scenario- this is only probably in the 1980s or 1990s.
*Timelines are very welcome, mere suggestions are equally good

Maybe some infos help?
http://althistory.wikia.com/wiki/Korean_Empire:_The_Different_Choice
This was only up to the 1930s, so maybe somebody could start from there...

Anyways, good luck:D
 
I've been working on it (see sig below), although because the PoD occurs in AD 395, it's going to take quite a while to begin writing about events after 1600. The link that you provided seems interesting, although the issue is that the PoD seems to have occurred sometime around 400-600, given that Goguryeo has unified the peninsula. That website overall tends to have a lot of TLs that are loosely planned out, which means that many of the gaps need to be filled, and the vast majority of the details either need to be rearranged or edited altogether before tackling later events. In this case, a significant amount of emphasis needs to be placed on events before 1600, and possibly even 1200, for your criteria to be fulfilled, as Korean society needs to be significantly rearranged in order for butterflies to rearrange the geopolitics within East Asia as a whole.

In any case, the main reason that the vast majority of the members on this forum haven't tackled timelines concerning Korea in any era is that there simply aren't enough extensive sources in English, which makes it extremely difficult to do the research. Korea also tends to be ignored in comparison with China and Japan because many people assume that the countries' current situations can be anachronistically projected back historically. This is an extreme oversimplification because Japan was relatively undeveloped until around 1600-1700, while Gojoseon, Goguryeo, and Balhae often diplomatically influenced or even pressured various Chinese states sporadically. As a result, Korea tends to be relatively neglected, not to mention that this forum is extremely oriented toward Western history, meaning that East Asia generally tends to be ignored.

I hope that helps.
 
Nobody tried this one before. It was always China or Japan.
So I thought, why not?
*note: do not make a North Korea Best Korea scenario- this is only probably in the 1980s or 1990s.
*Timelines are very welcome, mere suggestions are equally good

Maybe some infos help?
http://althistory.wikia.com/wiki/Korean_Empire:_The_Different_Choice
This was only up to the 1930s, so maybe somebody could start from there...

Anyways, good luck:D

Direwolf22 tried it in his Disaster at Leuthen TL.

It's a great TL, you should check it out if you haven't read it.
 
Direwolf22 tried it in his Disaster at Leuthen TL.

It's a great TL, you should check it out if you haven't read it.

I just skimmed parts of that TL, and while it's remarkably detailed as a whole, not to mention that his portrayal of Korea looks relatively interesting, it doesn't seem very plausible at a second glance. To begin with, several influential court factions had been firmly entrenched by Seonjo's reign, which was the reason why Gwanghaegun was overthrown in 1623, along with Crown Prince Sado's death in 1762. As a result, the officials will attempt to undermine the deposed prince's son at every turn soon after he takes the throne, which probably explains Jeongjo's sudden death in 1800, along with the Andong Kim clan marrying one of their family members to his son, Sunjo, in 1802.

In addition, Joseon continued to remain under Qing influence, albeit grudgingly, until the late 19th century IOTL, so I find it hard to understand why Joseon would begin paying much attention to any of the Western Powers before China was weakened by the rebellion, given that they never had an incentive to do so IOTL. Also, his main section on Joseon only covers a paragraph, and skips much of how the changes occurred due to unexplained butterflies, which makes it difficult to follow his train of thought as a whole.

In other words, it's a good idea, but it requires a much earlier PoD, and needs to be fleshed out much more to be reasonable.
 
I have a timeline that needs some help. The POD is at 1844 (or somewhere around 1840s before 1848) when Korea executes a multitude of French catholic priests. The July Monarchy, envious of their neighboring Britain's gains in China and furious at the barbaric acts by Korea, send in a major expedition into the Korean capital, Seoul. (This happens in 1847 or 1848.) (The French go deep into Seoul, killing civilians and shooting Paixhans guns.)The xenophobic and isolationist Hun-jong dynasty fiercely resists, until a member of royal family is captured. Forced to sign the Franco-Korean Treaty of Amicability, the Korean regime turns deeper into isolationism.
....then there's my missing link in the historical chain.:( Would the intellects in Korea be alarmed and spurred into action, or would they also stay firmly isolationist? Would they understand the technological innovations are not inconsistent with Confucian theology? This is as much as I've come on this TL. If this is fixed, I could link it with the Korean Revolution and New Constitution... if somebody could please help on this, thanks.:D
 
Last edited:
I have a timeline that needs some final touches. The POD is at 1844 (or somewhere around 1840s before 1848) when Korea executes a multitude of French catholic priests. The July Monarchy, envious of their neighboring Britain's gains in China and furious at the barbaric acts by Korea, send in a major expedition into the Korean capital, Seoul. (This happens in 1847 or 1848.) (The French go deep into Seoul, killing civilians and shooting Paixhans guns.)The xenophobic and isolationist Hun-jong dynasty fiercely resists, until a member of royal family is captured. Forced to sign the Franco-Korean Treaty of Amicability, the Korean regime turns deeper into isolationism.
....then there's my missing link in the historical chain.:( Would the intellects in Korea be alarmed and spurred into action, or would they also stay firmly isolationist? Would they understand the technological innovations are not inconsistent with Confucian theology? This is as much as I've come on this TL. If this is fixed, I could link it with the Korean Revolution and New Constitution... if somebody could please help on this, thanks.:D

You would probably need to tackle the societal and cultural issues first. Joseon had maintained a high rate of population growth during 1600-1800 due to the cash crops that were introduced during the Columbian Exchange, but during the 19th century, the significant lack of infrastructure eventually caused a slight decrease in the population. The state was also staunchly Confucian, and had close trading and diplomatic ties with the Qing, not to mention connections with Japan and the Ryukyus, so there was no significant pressure to radically change its policies until the late 19th century or so. The PoD is relatively late, so you'll have to address how the above issues can be mitigated without significantly undermining the court, which will be dominated by the Andong Kim clan at the time, making the political atmosphere hostile to any sudden reforms.
 
You would probably need to tackle the societal and cultural issues first. Joseon had maintained a high rate of population growth during 1600-1800 due to the cash crops that were introduced during the Columbian Exchange, but during the 19th century, the significant lack of infrastructure eventually caused a slight decrease in the population. The state was also staunchly Confucian, and had close trading and diplomatic ties with the Qing, not to mention connections with Japan and the Ryukyus, so there was no significant pressure to radically change its policies until the late 19th century or so. The PoD is relatively late, so you'll have to address how the above issues can be mitigated without significantly undermining the court, which will be dominated by the Andong Kim clan at the time, making the political atmosphere hostile to any sudden reforms.

Would stabilising the royal court matter if I would need a civil war to overthrow the Hun-jong regime? I was thinking of something similar to the Boshin wars, where a radical faction led by Lee Ha-eung (흥선대원군), promising land reforms and modernization of Korea, topples the clan-led Chosun government. This would be quite successful as all the Korean merchants were eager for social reform; this went same for poor noblemen or others of lower social class. The leaders of this faction, if possible, would be a group of scholars who, during their younger years, went to Europe with help from French-British officials who were eager to increase their influence in Korea. (The scholars would mainly be composed of the 동인 faction, who were both anti-government and radicals in the latter half of the Chosun dynasty.)
Their premise would be this: "The Qing dynasty are barbarians. The Westerners are also barbarians; however, they have accepted technology and intelligence from the Ming, developed upon it, and have become successful. In order to inherit the Mandate of Heaven, Korea must modernize and retaliate against barbarian Qing rule using Western intelligence."
So, when Lee Ha-eung led Righteous Liberation Army into Seoul in 1855, he enacts two essential laws:the Land Reallocation Law and Abolition of Social Stratification Law. The first brings much joy to the working class in Korea; the latter brings much glee to the quickly expanding merchant class of Chosun.
....before making Korea industrialized and all that, what should we make as the governmental system for Korea? Would the same system suffice, as I am thinking of a coup that establishes Gojong as Emperor, promulgation of Korean Empire (which means proclamation of Korean independence from Chna) and an ensuing Sino-Korean War... the system just needs to last like, a few decades at most. What would you say is idealistic?:D
 
Would stabilising the royal court matter if I would need a civil war to overthrow the Hun-jong regime? I was thinking of something similar to the Boshin wars, where a radical faction led by Lee Ha-eung (흥선대원군), promising land reforms and modernization of Korea, topples the clan-led Chosun government. This would be quite successful as all the Korean merchants were eager for social reform; this went same for poor noblemen or others of lower social class. The leaders of this faction, if possible, would be a group of scholars who, during their younger years, went to Europe with help from French-British officials who were eager to increase their influence in Korea. (The scholars would mainly be composed of the 동인 faction, who were both anti-government and radicals in the latter half of the Chosun dynasty.)

I understand your analogy concerning the Boshin War, but while Japan was more isolated as a whole, especially from China, allowing it to focus much more on its internal affairs, Korea continued to consult diplomatic matters with China, even when it was separately negotiating with Japan while discussing the Ganghwa Treaty. In addition, the Tokugawa Shogunate had been in power for more than 200 years, while the Andong Kim clan did not control the court for more than half a century, although various other factions had dominated beforehand. As a result, it was much easier for Yi Ha-eung to wrest control away from the court by maneuvering the court's politics in order to rule as the regent, while significantly reforming internal issues and maintaining isolationist policies in order to stabilize the government and consolidate the monarchy's influence.

IOTL, both the Andong Kim clan and the Heungseon Daewongun were strictly isolationist. The main reason was that the Opium Wars, which occurred from 1839-42 and from 1856-60, convinced the aristocracy that China's political weakness led to its numerous defeats at the hands of the Europeans. As a result, I find it hard to imagine how the regent's policies could be significantly altered, as he would be uncomfortable with the idea of having his influence significantly diluted by European policymakers and traders.

In any case, the main issue is that France wouldn't be particularly interested in Korea, as it would have its hands full with affairs within Europe, the Americas, Africa, India, and Southeast Asia at the time. This was why IOTL, it took months for the French to respond in 1866 after several missionaries were executed, and it only managed to send a token force of around 500-1000 soldiers. Also, as France was more concerned about trading routes within Southeast Asia in part due to its proximity to China and the Dutch East Indies, not to mention that the main trading ports within East Asia were located in southern China and Japan, Korea wasn't considered to be a strategic nor profitable location, as it was located far away from most of the viable trading routes, not to mention the lack of significant ports. As a result, this scenario would only work if France manages to pressure the peninsula significantly by sending tens of thousands of troops, which would essentially require the former to significantly reduce the size of its colonial empire.

Their premise would be this: "The Qing dynasty are barbarians. The Westerners are also barbarians; however, they have accepted technology and intelligence from the Ming, developed upon it, and have become successful. In order to inherit the Mandate of Heaven, Korea must modernize and retaliate against barbarian Qing rule using Western intelligence."

I'm not sure how this would work. The Westerners had been viewed as "uncivilized barbarians" from a distant shore for centuries, and at the time, there is virtually no way of Korea knowing that Europe had built upon ideas pioneered by the Chinese, not to mention that many of the innovations, such as paper, moveable type printing, the compass, and gunpowder, had been invented before the Ming. The Manchus had been considered to be barbarians as well, but the Qing's rule had been grudgingly accepted because it ruled China, of which Joseon had been consistently paying tribute to since the Ming in order to stabilize diplomatic and trading relations. Although the Qing were deep in the process of falling apart by the mid-19th century, it was still recognized as the legitimate ruler of China, which would make it difficult for the Korean court or the monarchy to completely break its ties, given that trading routes would be disrupted, while the Europeans wouldn't have a particular incentive to actively open the peninsula to trade.

So, when Lee Ha-eung led Righteous Liberation Army into Seoul in 1855, he enacts two essential laws:the Land Reallocation Law and Abolition of Social Stratification Law. The first brings much joy to the working class in Korea; the latter brings much glee to the quickly expanding merchant class of Chosun.

IOTL, the Heungseon Daewongun did implement sweeping changes meant to benefit the peasants as a whole, but these policies were separate from his approach to foreigners. The regent needed to consolidate his fragile position before tackling diplomatic issues, and it's telling that IOTL, he was radical in his persecution of foreigners, which even the Andong Kim clan had been previously wary of doing. Unlike Japan, which had been opened up to trade because it had a significant population backed up by densely populated major cities and trading ports, Korea had been relatively underdeveloped by the 1800s, generally speaking, causing the Europeans to intervene only when their interests had been significantly threatened. In addition, the General Sherman incident was also halfhearted, along with the subsequent low-level expedition in 1871, which meant that the Koreans were able to repulse what they assumed to be "hostile forces," causing the peninsula to remain resistant to foreign attempts until Japan finally succeeded in 1876.

....before making Korea industrialized and all that, what should we make as the governmental system for Korea? Would the same system suffice, as I am thinking of a coup that establishes Gojong as Emperor, promulgation of Korean Empire (which means proclamation of Korean independence from Chna) and an ensuing Sino-Korean War... the system just needs to last like, a few decades at most. What would you say is idealistic?:D

A coup would probably be devastating for the peninsula, as the Andong Kim clan and supporting officials would have tens of thousands of well-trained personal soldiers available for use, while the royal family would have to rely on tens of thousands of peasants, which would not have been adequately trained. In addition, if the royalist faction succeeded, it would have a hard time persuading other officials that the Qing must be invaded, as a war could potentially drain Joseon's resources without significant support from the Europeans, who would attempt to force Korea to sign unequal treaties in the aftermath in any scenario. As a result, a declaration of independence from China would be much more reasonable, as it would require less risks, given that China jointly occupied Korea with Japan IOTL, and would essentially have the same effect in the long term.

The idea as a whole is certainly interesting, and can theoretically work with the right butterflies, but the concept essentially requires a PoD earlier than 1800 in order to incorporate significant political and social changes. For example, an earlier PoD might involve Gwanghaegun retaining the throne and gradually expanding into Manchuria after negotiating with the Ming and the Jurchen, but this scenario essentially requires the Imjin War to be butterflied away, which would lead to numerous divergences from OTL.
 
I understand your analogy concerning the Boshin War, but while Japan was more isolated as a whole, especially from China, allowing it to focus much more on its internal affairs, Korea continued to consult diplomatic matters with China, even when it was separately negotiating with Japan while discussing the Ganghwa Treaty. In addition, the Tokugawa Shogunate had been in power for more than 200 years, while the Andong Kim clan did not control the court for more than half a century, although various other factions had dominated beforehand. As a result, it was much easier for Yi Ha-eung to wrest control away from the court by maneuvering the court's politics in order to rule as the regent, while significantly reforming internal issues and maintaining isolationist policies in order to stabilize the government and consolidate the monarchy's influence.
Excuse my mistake; I was thinking more along the lines of Russian Civil War, which was led by core elites and followed by peasants all over the country. Because of the economic problems Chosun was facing, I believed the peasants would be more than willing if there was a revolution that had those ideas as one of the core tenets, more so if it was led by a man of royal lineage (Lee Ha-eung). A key part of this revolution is that the revolution is led both by Lee Ha-Eung and the 동인 faction (If you remember, numerous French priests were executed some time ago; this was because they were collaborating with the Korean radicals to overthrow the government. Yes, this was the 동인 faction; along with plans to overthrow the Hun-jong government, they have sent a multitude of students to Europe to study at the University of Paris. The French government and priests, eager (I hope they are; it's the 1840s: they were at a starting point to flex much influence within Siam and Vietnam) to spread influence at the Far East, accepted these students; fully educated in Western technology, science and philosophy, they now were key in establishment of the new government). Obviously, after some years, there was a growing discrepancy between Lee and the "Easterners"; this was what led to the overthrow of Lee and proclamation of the Korean Empire, along with setting Gojong as Emperor with constitutional monarchy (proclamation of independence also spurs the Sino-Korean War of 1875; this shall be discussed at a later date.)
The main reason Lee Ha-eung hates the foreigners and their barbaric ways is because, in order to gain some leverage at the conference table, the French tried to dig out his father's corpse; while this was unsuccessful due to the hardness of the tomb(??), it also spurred the Regent into isolationist policies in IOTL. This has butterflied away IATL. It should be noted, despite this, that he was very interested in their technology: as an effort to make less soldier casualties, he designed a 'bulletproof armor' that was made of cotton; also, when the General Sherman was sunk at Pyongyang, he ordered it redesigned and copied; the Korean-made ship, according to sources, moved backwards. Anyways, my point is that Lee was probably flexible in his views about Westerners and their technologies.

In any case, the main issue is that France wouldn't be particularly interested in Korea, as it would have its hands full with affairs within Europe, the Americas, Africa, India, and Southeast Asia at the time. This was why IOTL, it took months for the French to respond in 1866 after several missionaries were executed, and it only managed to send a token force of around 500-1000 soldiers. Also, as France was more concerned about trading routes within Southeast Asia in part due to its proximity to China and the Dutch East Indies, not to mention that the main trading ports within East Asia were located in southern China and Japan, Korea wasn't considered to be a strategic nor profitable location, as it was located far away from most of the viable trading routes, not to mention the lack of significant ports. As a result, this scenario would only work if France manages to pressure the peninsula significantly by sending tens of thousands of troops, which would essentially require the former to significantly reduce the size of its colonial empire.
The main thing was that the Korean population needed to see the extent of Western technology- the possibility of a far-reaching artillery that could detonate upon impact. This 'shock by technology' must be present for a successful Korean Revolution, because that was what happened during the 1855 Perry Expedition- the citizens of Tokyo saw the Black Ships, and the Shogunate was unable to hide from them their technological backwardness- which at some level have led to the successful Meiji Ishin. The French attacked in 1866 on the specific date IOTL because it was during the time the harvested crops were moving into Seoul; they were attempting to blockade the crops and force the capital into submission. If, by chance, the Munsusansong fort was lost by the Koreans (which leads straight into Seoul) and the French gunboats were able to gain access into the Han river from the army support, and they bombard the city with their up-to-date artillery (Munsusansong was within range of their Paixhans gun, which had accuracy for 2 miles), the Franco-Korean war I am expecting may be in place.

I'm not sure how this would work. The Westerners had been viewed as "uncivilized barbarians" from a distant shore for centuries, and at the time, there is virtually no way of Korea knowing that Europe had built upon ideas pioneered by the Chinese, not to mention that many of the innovations, such as paper, moveable type printing, the compass, and gunpowder, had been invented before the Ming. The Manchus had been considered to be barbarians as well, but the Qing's rule had been grudgingly accepted because it ruled China, of which Joseon had been consistently paying tribute to since the Ming in order to stabilize diplomatic and trading relations. Although the Qing were deep in the process of falling apart by the mid-19th century, it was still recognized as the legitimate ruler of China, which would make it difficult for the Korean court or the monarchy to completely break its ties, given that trading routes would be disrupted, while the Europeans wouldn't have a particular incentive to actively open the peninsula to trade.
This, I do not know quote how. Perhaps the radicals, whilst coming from France, brings several historical texts that show how Han China (therefore the Ming dynasty) is the righteous owner of the 'technology copyright' that the West uses. All that is needed is a Confucian reasoning of how Western technologies are compatible with their ideologies.

IOTL, the Heungseon Daewongun did implement sweeping changes meant to benefit the peasants as a whole, but these policies were separate from his approach to foreigners. The regent needed to consolidate his fragile position before tackling diplomatic issues, and it's telling that IOTL, he was radical in his persecution of foreigners, which even the Andong Kim clan had been previously wary of doing. Unlike Japan, which had been opened up to trade because it had a significant population backed up by densely populated major cities and trading ports, Korea had been relatively underdeveloped by the 1800s, generally speaking, causing the Europeans to intervene only when their interests had been significantly threatened. In addition, the General Sherman incident was also halfhearted, along with the subsequent low-level expedition in 1871, which meant that the Koreans were able to repulse what they assumed to be "hostile forces," causing the peninsula to remain resistant to foreign attempts until Japan finally succeeded in 1876.
I think the explanation previously about Lee Ha-eung answers your question. Another problem stated in your quote, about how Koreans were able to resist the French and later Americans, is why I think it is possible to quite overwhelm the Korean army with the technological upper hand France has, without much of a large expeditionary force.

A coup would probably be devastating for the peninsula, as the Andong Kim clan and supporting officials would have tens of thousands of well-trained personal soldiers available for use, while the royal family would have to rely on tens of thousands of peasants, which would not have been adequately trained. In addition, if the royalist faction succeeded, it would have a hard time persuading other officials that the Qing must be invaded, as a war could potentially drain Joseon's resources without significant support from the Europeans, who would attempt to force Korea to sign unequal treaties in the aftermath in any scenario. As a result, a declaration of independence from China would be much more reasonable, as it would require less risks, given that China jointly occupied Korea with Japan IOTL, and would essentially have the same effect in the long term.
I have never heard of any of the Korean clans having a significant standing personal army. By the time of the Revolution (1854~5, 8 years after the Franco-Korean War), most of the Koreans were aware of a Kim hegemony; while some were trying to gain something by ingratiating themselves, most of the people (farmers, poor scholars) were infuriated by the ineffective government and its isolationist policies which have led them to nothing. The thing about proclaiming independence was stated above.
I hope I have answered some of your feelings of doubt and ambiguity.:D
 
Excuse my mistake; I was thinking more along the lines of Russian Civil War, which was led by core elites and followed by peasants all over the country. Because of the economic problems Chosun was facing, I believed the peasants would be more than willing if there was a revolution that had those ideas as one of the core tenets, more so if it was led by a man of royal lineage (Lee Ha-eung). A key part of this revolution is that the revolution is led both by Lee Ha-Eung and the 동인 faction (If you remember, numerous French priests were executed some time ago; this was because they were collaborating with the Korean radicals to overthrow the government. Yes, this was the 동인 faction; along with plans to overthrow the Hun-jong government, they have sent a multitude of students to Europe to study at the University of Paris. The French government and priests, eager (I hope they are; it's the 1840s: they were at a starting point to flex much influence within Siam and Vietnam) to spread influence at the Far East, accepted these students; fully educated in Western technology, science and philosophy, they now were key in establishment of the new government). Obviously, after some years, there was a growing discrepancy between Lee and the "Easterners"; this was what led to the overthrow of Lee and proclamation of the Korean Empire, along with setting Gojong as Emperor with constitutional monarchy (proclamation of independence also spurs the Sino-Korean War of 1875; this shall be discussed at a later date.)
The main reason Lee Ha-eung hates the foreigners and their barbaric ways is because, in order to gain some leverage at the conference table, the French tried to dig out his father's corpse; while this was unsuccessful due to the hardness of the tomb(??), it also spurred the Regent into isolationist policies in IOTL. This has butterflied away IATL. It should be noted, despite this, that he was very interested in their technology: as an effort to make less soldier casualties, he designed a 'bulletproof armor' that was made of cotton; also, when the General Sherman was sunk at Pyongyang, he ordered it redesigned and copied; the Korean-made ship, according to sources, moved backwards. Anyways, my point is that Lee was probably flexible in his views about Westerners and their technologies.

The problem with this approach is that France sent troops in order to "punish" the "barbarians" in order to obtain reparations for the execution of French missionaries. The situation both IOTL and ITTL does not require the French to open up the peninsula for trade before the PoD, which will only lead negotiations to have a temporary effect. The monarch/regent and the court as a whole would also be wary of foreign interference, so they would probably be firmly opposed to the idea of sending officials far away when they haven't begun trading with the Europeans yet. The Eastern Faction could probably pressure the Andong Kim clan on a minor scale regarding its approach toward Europeans, but they probably will not have definitive information that the Westerners would be "superior" to the Chinese, leading them to abstain from becoming traitors.

The main thing was that the Korean population needed to see the extent of Western technology- the possibility of a far-reaching artillery that could detonate upon impact. This 'shock by technology' must be present for a successful Korean Revolution, because that was what happened during the 1855 Perry Expedition- the citizens of Tokyo saw the Black Ships, and the Shogunate was unable to hide from them their technological backwardness- which at some level have led to the successful Meiji Ishin. The French attacked in 1866 on the specific date IOTL because it was during the time the harvested crops were moving into Seoul; they were attempting to blockade the crops and force the capital into submission. If, by chance, the Munsusansong fort was lost by the Koreans (which leads straight into Seoul) and the French gunboats were able to gain access into the Han river from the army support, and they bombard the city with their up-to-date artillery (Munsusansong was within range of their Paixhans gun, which had accuracy for 2 miles), the Franco-Korean war I am expecting may be in place.

Yes, but both the French and Americans deployed cannons and warships to a significant extent IOTL, given the forces involved during the conflicts. This show of power barely fazed the Koreans, who also attempted to innovate by creating items like the 면제배갑 (Myeonje baegap), the cotton bullet-proof vest, as you stated earlier, which suggests that the government as a whole would have attempted to reform internally instead of actively looking for inspiration from outside sources. If the invaders had successfully taken a major city, Joseon would have probably attempted to recruit more soldiers, while others in the countryside would have attempted to conduct guerrilla operations through the Righteous Armies. Ultimately, if the French or the Americans had managed to somehow hold a handful of major cities, including Seoul, they would eventually be overstretched and run low on resources, while Joseon would view the general incident as a smaller analogy of the Imjin War, which did not lead to any military reforms within the peninsula.

This, I do not know quote how. Perhaps the radicals, whilst coming from France, brings several historical texts that show how Han China (therefore the Ming dynasty) is the righteous owner of the 'technology copyright' that the West uses. All that is needed is a Confucian reasoning of how Western technologies are compatible with their ideologies.

I still don't see how this would occur, given that the French would only seek the justice of the executed missionaries, while any political faction within Joseon would be unwilling to send their intellectuals to a unknown place far away when the invasions would have probably convinced the government as a whole to turn further inward. You would first need to find a way for the Europeans to become interested in trade routes leading to Korea, which would be extremely difficult to do given the geopolitical situation at the time.

I think the explanation previously about Lee Ha-eung answers your question. Another problem stated in your quote, about how Koreans were able to resist the French and later Americans, is why I think it is possible to quite overwhelm the Korean army with the technological upper hand France has, without much of a large expeditionary force.

As I stated earlier, the Europeans visiting or invading Korea would have to be actively interested in opening the peninsula up for trade before doing so with Japan. IOTL, and I'm also assuming ITTL, this never occurred because the missionaries, whose main interests were to convert foreigners in order to "enlighten" them, were the first to enter the peninsula, and never attempted to significantly impart Western culture as they had been within the country for only a few decades. The expedition in question is also far from the first time that Korea has been invaded, as it resisted attempts from around 14 states, so with such a token invading force, Joseon would most likely attempt to tighten its isolationism efforts in order to prevent the peninsula from falling under foreign control. IOTL, Korea initially attempted to innovate internally in response to foreign pressures, as there was no impetus to head overseas in order to learn more about Western ideology and education, so I don't see why the situation would be radically different ITTL.

I have never heard of any of the Korean clans having a significant standing personal army. By the time of the Revolution (1854~5, 8 years after the Franco-Korean War), most of the Koreans were aware of a Kim hegemony; while some were trying to gain something by ingratiating themselves, most of the people (farmers, poor scholars) were infuriated by the ineffective government and its isolationist policies which have led them to nothing. The thing about proclaiming independence was stated above.
I hope I have answered some of your feelings of doubt and ambiguity.:D

If I remember correctly, various influential members of the aristocracy had been maintaining personal armies for centuries in order to ensure their safety, although they were generally never used against the monarch because the circumstances did not require them to do so. For comparison, the Imjin War also devastated the peninsula due to ineffective policies mostly targeting the military, but the court continued to maintain its previous policies. As a result, it would be difficult for the government to reform significantly during the 19th century when the state has experienced more than two centuries of relative peace, not to mention several significant population increases.

In other words, I understand your general points, but I still think that you would have to thoroughly analyze why and how the events occurred before tackling the scenario.
 
The problem with this approach is that France sent troops in order to "punish" the "barbarians" in order to obtain reparations for the execution of French missionaries. The situation both IOTL and ITTL does not require the French to open up the peninsula for trade before the PoD, which will only lead negotiations to have a temporary effect. The monarch/regent and the court as a whole would also be wary of foreign interference, so they would probably be firmly opposed to the idea of sending officials far away when they haven't begun trading with the Europeans yet. The Eastern Faction could probably pressure the Andong Kim clan on a minor scale regarding its approach toward Europeans, but they probably will not have definitive information that the Westerners would be "superior" to the Chinese, leading them to abstain from becoming traitors.

You've mentioned two reasons why the "French method" won't work. First was because the French have no economic reasons to be in Korea; second was that the Eastern Faction did not have sufficient information to believe the Europeans were superior to the Chinese. For the first reason, I can only say the possibility of the Russians quickly signing a treaty with Korea after the french and actively working out a treaty port from them; another, although less possible, is in which the French priests keep going to Korea after the treaty was signed and spread the Catholic faith. France, the most colonially developed amongst the Catholic countries (Spain is almost dead at this point), has interests to gain prestige as an active Catholic country. Remember- the July Monarchy would want more of the conservative support. (Or that's what I think.)
The explanation for the second reason is this- the Southern Faction were politically isolated from Korea. (Lemme fix the fact of stating Southern Faction as Eastern- there was a partition within the Eastern Faction into North and South Faction in 1589. Between the two, the only faction that survived up to the 19th century was the Southern Faction.) As you said, the Andong Kims were a de facto ruler of Korea- and they weren't allied with the Southern Faction. However, the Southern Faction was also famed for producing numerous scholars who called for modernization, such as 정약용. These individuals were often too radical and liberal in the eyes of the Andong Kims, and were the victims of earlier Catholic persecutions. Because they were very close to the French, the priests would probably tell them of the First Opium War and its effects- showing how weak China had become (This information also proved to be crucial in the preludes of Meiji Ishin). These individuals weren't officials in any way- they were scholars, very liberal scholars at that.

Yes, but both the French and Americans deployed cannons and warships to a significant extent IOTL, given the forces involved during the conflicts. This show of power barely fazed the Koreans, who also attempted to innovate by creating items like the 면제배갑 (Myeonje baegap), the cotton bullet-proof vest, as you stated earlier, which suggests that the government as a whole would have attempted to reform internally instead of actively looking for inspiration from outside sources. If the invaders had successfully taken a major city, Joseon would have probably attempted to recruit more soldiers, while others in the countryside would have attempted to conduct guerrilla operations through the Righteous Armies. Ultimately, if the French or the Americans had managed to somehow hold a handful of major cities, including Seoul, they would eventually be overstretched and run low on resources, while Joseon would view the general incident as a smaller analogy of the Imjin War, which did not lead to any military reforms within the peninsula.

The important difference between the French and American acts IOTL and the Franco-Korean War in my altered timeline is that while it was mainly soldiers and people not close to the capital city who witnessed the event IOTL, in my timeline the French forces actually go deep into the Han River, killing many Koreans with their artillery and even managing to kidnap a Korean who is from the Andong Kim clan. Yes, the government would become more isolationist and xenophobic. However, this sentiment will not be reflected with the common Koreans. The Koreans would know this mistake was made because they refused to fully understand their opponent and only utilized parts of it. The Korean people would know they were annihilated by foreigners (first Japanese, then Chinese, now French) because, like many centuries ago, they refused to develop militarily even when the chance was given; 지피지기 백전백승 (知彼知己百戰百勝) would be a prevalent idea in Korea from this POD. Also, the French militarily lose in the Franco-Korean War; however, while they make retreat, they take hostage some of the family members of the Andong Kim clan (not killed!)- which is the main reason the Koreans come to the conference table.

I still don't see how this would occur, given that the French would only seek the justice of the executed missionaries, while any political faction within Joseon would be unwilling to send their intellectuals to a unknown place far away when the invasions would have probably convinced the government as a whole to turn further inward. You would first need to find a way for the Europeans to become interested in trade routes leading to Korea, which would be extremely difficult to do given the geopolitical situation at the time.

forgive my expression of the Southern Faction as a political group- they are rather like exiles, a political party that only exists in the form of scholars and bureaucrats, not members of political representation in any kind. Yes, the government would become more isolationist. However, this has nothing to do with the Southern Faction, as they are not supportive of the present government. The corrupt methods local officials use to extract money from citizens and bribe the Andong Kim clan would lead to a major uprising; members of the Southern Faction would lead this revolution; when the tides are turned, Lee Ha-eung joins the bandwagon as it seems a easier method of gaining leadership in Korea.
As previously stated, I certainly do not know how to make the French more interested in Korea other than Catholicism; Russia would prove more important in this commercial and cultural exchange between Korea and a foreign nation.

As I stated earlier, the Europeans visiting or invading Korea would have to be actively interested in opening the peninsula up for trade before doing so with Japan. IOTL, and I'm also assuming ITTL, this never occurred because the missionaries, whose main interests were to convert foreigners in order to "enlighten" them, were the first to enter the peninsula, and never attempted to significantly impart Western culture as they had been within the country for only a few decades. The expedition in question is also far from the first time that Korea has been invaded, as it resisted attempts from around 14 states, so with such a token invading force, Joseon would most likely attempt to tighten its isolationism efforts in order to prevent the peninsula from falling under foreign control. IOTL, Korea initially attempted to innovate internally in response to foreign pressures, as there was no impetus to head overseas in order to learn more about Western ideology and education, so I don't see why the situation would be radically different ITTL.

It seemed to me, after some time, I have accidently left an ambiguity- the Korean government does not send scholars to Europe after the Franco-Korean War. The scholars of the Southern Faction did, and this was even before the war itself. A coincidence has led the French priests at the mouth of Nakdong River (Busan); while spreading the faith through the river trade, the French Catholics have met the Southern Faction some 50 years before than they actually did (this is the alternate timeline). Because of the deep relations between the Southern Faction and France, they conspire to develop a plan to "renew Korea"; one of them was to overthrow the Korean government, and another was sending several Korean students to France to study the Western world. While the first part of the revolution was found and thwarted, the second part was not found because the students remained in France to finish their university education while escaping from watchful eyes of the government.

If I remember correctly, various influential members of the aristocracy had been maintaining personal armies for centuries in order to ensure their safety, although they were generally never used against the monarch because the circumstances did not require them to do so. For comparison, the Imjin War also devastated the peninsula due to ineffective policies mostly targeting the military, but the court continued to maintain its previous policies. As a result, it would be difficult for the government to reform significantly during the 19th century when the state has experienced more than two centuries of relative peace, not to mention several significant population increases.

Exactly. The government does not feel the need to make reforms; rather, it utilizes bureaucracy to the fullest extent and make it into a system of bribery to the Andong Kim clan- which, in turn, makes matter worse for the peasants and poor scholars. While the rich merchants also try for some time to gain political influence with the Andong Kims, they view the merchant class as subhuman and do not treat them as equals. The angered merchants, therefore, join the revolution along with the Southern Faction, the peasants and poor scholars. Would the 'private army' of the Andong Kim clan be able to stand up against the mass of angry citizens? I should, therefore, also add that this revolution is helped by the French; the revolution was too quick for the British to do anything about it.

So the basic scheme is this:

1790s~1840s. French cooperation with Southern Faction
1844: Persecution of French priests, along with members of Southern Faction
1846: Franco-Korean War. France loses, but manages to bring Korea to sign the Ganghwa Island Treaty of 1847. French citizens are given extraterritoriality, a French legation operates in Seoul, Korea is forced to open Busan, Gunsan and Wonsan
1847: Russia quickly signs the Russia-Korea Treaty of Amity in Wonsan. Britain, United States, the Netherlands and Sweden-Norway immediately follow suit.
1848~1854: period of peasant protests and civil unrest. Numerous protests erupt nationwide, protesting against the corrupt, Kim-oriented Korean bureaucracy.
1854~1855: Korean Righteous Revolution. Spurred by suspicious death of Hun-jong, led by Southern Faction members who survived (and educated in France), supported by angry mob of peasants, merchants and scholars, financially supported by France, headed by Lee Ha-eung.
1855: Lee Ha-eung established as Hye-jong, 25th monarch of Chosun dynasty. Supported by Southern Faction, he purges the bureaucracy from corruption and replaces the position with revolutionaries and subdued aristocracy. He ratifies numerous laws that enforces land reforms, termination of class structure system and public education. Another major action the government chose to undertake was the First Korean envoy to Europe. The envoy visits the Exposition Universelle opened in Paris.
1856: Chosun's Hye-jong reinforces its subordination with Qing China; first foreign advisers arrive at Korea, mostly from United States, Great Britain and Prussia; numerous shipyards, iron smelters, cotton mills and coal mines are started construction.
=============================
This timeline pretty much sums the alternate history up to the point in which we were discussing. I hope this answers some questions and helps me go on to the next part of the Korean TL...:p:):D
 
Last edited:
You've mentioned two reasons why the "French method" won't work. First was because the French have no economic reasons to be in Korea; second was that the Eastern Faction did not have sufficient information to believe the Europeans were superior to the Chinese. For the first reason, I can only say the possibility of the Russians quickly signing a treaty with Korea after the french and actively working out a treaty port from them; another, although less possible, is in which the French priests keep going to Korea after the treaty was signed and spread the Catholic faith. France, the most colonially developed amongst the Catholic countries (Spain is almost dead at this point), has interests to gain prestige as an active Catholic country. Remember- the July Monarchy would want more of the conservative support. (Or that's what I think.)
The explanation for the second reason is this- the Southern Faction were politically isolated from Korea. (Lemme fix the fact of stating Southern Faction as Eastern- there was a partition within the Eastern Faction into North and South Faction in 1589. Between the two, the only faction that survived up to the 19th century was the Southern Faction.) As you said, the Andong Kims were a de facto ruler of Korea- and they weren't allied with the Southern Faction. However, the Southern Faction was also famed for producing numerous scholars who called for modernization, such as 정약용. These individuals were often too radical and liberal in the eyes of the Andong Kims, and were the victims of earlier Catholic persecutions. Because they were very close to the French, the priests would probably tell them of the First Opium War and its effects- showing how weak China had become (This information also proved to be crucial in the preludes of Meiji Ishin). These individuals weren't officials in any way- they were scholars, very liberal scholars at that.

The Russians would only attempt to intervene in Korea after the Qing have been significantly weakened. IOTL, Russia was busy with affairs concerning Europe and the Ottomans, which culminated in significant conflicts like the Crimean War (1853-6) that pitted the Russians against a cohesive alliance. As a result, the state was not particularly concerned with East Asia until it finally participated in the Second Opium War (1856-60) and seized Outer Manchuria after the Treaty of Aigun in 1858, when it finally gained access to land in order to build ports within Northeast Asia. In other words, the Russians didn't even have significant ports in the east in order to gain access to Korea to begin with, and would essentially have to declare war with the Qing before 1858 if it wanted to conduct diplomatic negotiations with Joseon without contacting China beforehand.

I understand your point about the July Monarchy, but the main issue concerns the tumultuous events within France before then, which I will cover in detail later below. In any case, if French missionaries entered Korea ITTL significantly before the corresponding events IOTL, the Korean court would almost certainly be aware of the developments, and would attempt to purge any official or scholar connected with the foreigners, essentially leading to a repeat of the persecutions which occurred in 1801 (신유박해), if they had not been carried out already. Even if the French missionaries informed some of the more liberal Korean scholars about the First Opium War, the widespread repercussions were not felt until after the Second Opium War, as the Treaty of Nanjing (1842) did not resolve the key nature of the opium trade. As a result, even if there were scholars within Korea who wanted to actively push for reform, they probably wouldn't be particularly convinced by China's example until 1860, when the Treaty of Tianjin was ratified.

The important difference between the French and American acts IOTL and the Franco-Korean War in my altered timeline is that while it was mainly soldiers and people not close to the capital city who witnessed the event IOTL, in my timeline the French forces actually go deep into the Han River, killing many Koreans with their artillery and even managing to kidnap a Korean who is from the Andong Kim clan. Yes, the government would become more isolationist and xenophobic. However, this sentiment will not be reflected with the common Koreans. The Koreans would know this mistake was made because they refused to fully understand their opponent and only utilized parts of it. The Korean people would know they were annihilated by foreigners (first Japanese, then Chinese, now French) because, like many centuries ago, they refused to develop militarily even when the chance was given; 지피지기 백전백승 (知彼知己百戰百勝) would be a prevalent idea in Korea from this POD. Also, the French militarily lose in the Franco-Korean War; however, while they make retreat, they take hostage some of the family members of the Andong Kim clan (not killed!)- which is the main reason the Koreans come to the conference table.

The Imjin War did devastate the peninsula, but it also confirmed the Koreans' collective determination to resist any foreign invasions to the end under any cost, as the unthinkable alternative would have been utter subjugation after such a brutal war. The Qing did force Joseon to shift its allegiance from the Ming, but the conflicts were generally minimal, and the former agreed to withdraw when Korea agreed to formally become a tributary, so the outcome ultimately benefited both sides in the long run. These conflicts also ignore the 12 or so states that invaded Korea beforehand, many of which were much more catastrophic than the Imjin War, but I'll ignore them for now because they probably won't have been in the general public consciousness by the 19th century. In any case, I understand your point about the quote taken from Sun Tzu's The Art of War, but a more appropriate idiom probably would be 선기후인/先己後人, or a similar equivalent, as internal issues would need to be resolved beforehand. As I stated earlier, Korea is certainly no stranger to foreign invasions, as it managed to repel around 14 states throughout its history, so Joseon would almost certainly attempt to innovate internally given the general trend of events that had occurred for more than two millennia, which frequently included widespread massacres of civilian populations. In any case, one or two decades for the public to respond to the French invasion isn't going to spur the population as a whole to call for sweeping reforms before determining the issues that matter to them most, as in the short term, they would most likely favor general internal prosperity over potentially risky and costly political, military, and diplomatic changes.

forgive my expression of the Southern Faction as a political group- they are rather like exiles, a political party that only exists in the form of scholars and bureaucrats, not members of political representation in any kind. Yes, the government would become more isolationist. However, this has nothing to do with the Southern Faction, as they are not supportive of the present government. The corrupt methods local officials use to extract money from citizens and bribe the Andong Kim clan would lead to a major uprising; members of the Southern Faction would lead this revolution; when the tides are turned, Lee Ha-eung joins the bandwagon as it seems a easier method of gaining leadership in Korea.
As previously stated, I certainly do not know how to make the French more interested in Korea other than Catholicism; Russia would prove more important in this commercial and cultural exchange between Korea and a foreign nation.

Major uprisings and/or political restructuring throughout Korean history in response to corruption are nothing new. Many initially led to short term reforms, but the ones that succeeded eventually reverted back to the status quo after the primary goals had been achieved. As I stated earlier, a significant amount of butterflies specifically targeting society as a whole in the long run need to occur beforehand, which would require details like a significantly larger population, major ports, more infrastructure in major cities, technological innovations, which take decades, if not centuries, to develop depending on the situation in question, and other related issues. In other words, the government would need to reform societal issues significantly before 1800 or so in order for the secondary developments, such as technology, to be implemented in an industrial revolution.

It seemed to me, after some time, I have accidently left an ambiguity- the Korean government does not send scholars to Europe after the Franco-Korean War. The scholars of the Southern Faction did, and this was even before the war itself. A coincidence has led the French priests at the mouth of Nakdong River (Busan); while spreading the faith through the river trade, the French Catholics have met the Southern Faction some 50 years before than they actually did (this is the alternate timeline). Because of the deep relations between the Southern Faction and France, they conspire to develop a plan to "renew Korea"; one of them was to overthrow the Korean government, and another was sending several Korean students to France to study the Western world. While the first part of the revolution was found and thwarted, the second part was not found because the students remained in France to finish their university education while escaping from watchful eyes of the government.

This scenario runs into significant problems. The missionaries initially have to convince the Koreans that they have enough insightful educational materials that are "compatible" with Korean values, which in itself is an extremely difficult hurdle to overcome given the issues associated with translation. In addition, the French Revolution occurred from 1789-99, while the Napoleonic Wars occurred from 1803-15, both of which were extremely tumultuous and devastating. During both periods, missionaries probably would not have gone abroad in significant numbers due to political chaos, as society, especially including education, was significantly disrupted, not to mention that foreigners would almost certainly either have been expelled or executed during the Reign of Terror (1793-4). If any "foreign-exchange students" managed to remain put during the chaos, Napoleon's rise and fall probably wouldn't convince the students either, as he was eventually exiled after his failure at Waterloo against a mounting coalition against him. As a result, the events as a whole would probably convince the Korean scholars that while implementing several elements of Western ideology could lead to significant reforms, they would ultimately fail because of succeeding dictatorships that would turn the clock back, and force Joseon as a whole to become even more resistant to Western ideas.

Exactly. The government does not feel the need to make reforms; rather, it utilizes bureaucracy to the fullest extent and make it into a system of bribery to the Andong Kim clan- which, in turn, makes matter worse for the peasants and poor scholars. While the rich merchants also try for some time to gain political influence with the Andong Kims, they view the merchant class as subhuman and do not treat them as equals. The angered merchants, therefore, join the revolution along with the Southern Faction, the peasants and poor scholars. Would the 'private army' of the Andong Kim clan be able to stand up against the mass of angry citizens? I should, therefore, also add that this revolution is helped by the French; the revolution was too quick for the British to do anything about it.

Again, you're approaching the scenario backwards, which will take much longer for society to develop. For example, the Donghak Revolution pitted around 300,000 peasants against roughly 50,000 members of the Korean army, along with other troops from China and Japan, and the outcome did not go well for the former. Although the situation that you're depicting has a few major differences, the general picture remains the same in that the court faction will be much more prepared and well-equipped, so I don't expect any significant divergences from OTL. Joseon carried out significant reforms as a response to growing external pressures IOTL, but they did not affect society as a whole because there was no underlying system in place which helped to accelerate the changes during the long term. The situation won't be particularly different ITTL either because the monarchical faction needs to overcome the opposition by using updated weaponry, which would only occur after a liberal government is established in order to produce the weapons in a mass scale by themselves, or enlist the help of the French, which could force the latter under European influence from multiple directions in the long run.

So the basic scheme is this:

1790s~1840s. French cooperation with Southern Faction
1844: Persecution of French priests, along with members of Southern Faction
1846: Franco-Korean War. France loses, but manages to bring Korea to sign the Ganghwa Island Treaty of 1847. French citizens are given extraterritoriality, a French legation operates in Seoul, Korea is forced to open Busan, Gunsan and Wonsan
1847: Russia quickly signs the Russia-Korea Treaty of Amity in Wonsan. Britain, United States, the Netherlands and Sweden-Norway immediately follow suit.
1848~1854: period of peasant protests and civil unrest. Numerous protests erupt nationwide, protesting against the corrupt, Kim-oriented Korean bureaucracy.
1854~1855: Korean Righteous Revolution. Spurred by suspicious death of Hun-jong, led by Southern Faction members who survived (and educated in France), supported by angry mob of peasants, merchants and scholars, financially supported by France, headed by Lee Ha-eung.
1855: Lee Ha-eung established as Hye-jong, 25th monarch of Chosun dynasty. Supported by Southern Faction, he purges the bureaucracy from corruption and replaces the position with revolutionaries and subdued aristocracy. He ratifies numerous laws that enforces land reforms, termination of class structure system and public education. Another major action the government chose to undertake was the First Korean envoy to Europe. The envoy visits the Exposition Universelle opened in Paris.
1856: Chosun's Hye-jong reinforces its subordination with Qing China; first foreign advisers arrive at Korea, mostly from United States, Great Britain and Prussia; numerous shipyards, iron smelters, cotton mills and coal mines are started construction.
=============================
This timeline pretty much sums the alternate history up to the point in which we were discussing. I hope this answers some questions and helps me go on to the next part of the Korean TL...:p:):D

I think that the points that I made above should help you to understand why your scenario isn't particularly cohesive as it currently stands. The events as a whole essentially also requires you to make numerous changes to European history before even attempting to tackle complicated societal issues regarding Korea, which will take an extremely long time to untangle. As I stated earlier, the main changes need to originate from the government as a whole in order to ensure stability and continuous transition among society for several decades, which is currently lacking in your proposal, so you should probably thoroughly revisit the events and details before attempting to move forward.
 
Hi. Sorry for the late answer; I was at my hometown, where the internet service broke down for several days. I'll be giving a "thorough" answer (notice the quote:rolleyes:), which seems to be taking some while...
...Also, I want you to realise that this is a Korea-wank. And it will start at the 1790s, period. My main personal objective was to create a Korean Meiji, so I didn't want to start to far back. The reason I wanted to create a Korean Meiji was this: most Koreans believe that the economic prosperity South Korea had undergone was mainly because of the Japanese rule (ironically). Only with the Japanese, samurai-related ideology of perseverance and diligence were South Korea and Taiwan seen to have reached their economic miracles. I certainly do not believe in this, and wanted to disprove that because the Meiji Ishin and its government system and ideology was not as 'perfect' as most people seemed to understand (political and economic oligarchy; widened economic inequality between rich and poor; revolution was only led by core members and followed by majority when the tide was turned). Of course my assumptions and conclusions are flawed in making the alternate timeline. And I hope you could help me on that. I understand how you believe Korea needs more population and infrastructure to make a successful Meiji-ing; but, you also should know Japan wasn't in a great shape either because of centuries' worth of Sakoku policy on Japan's trade and navigation. Finally, Japan was famous for its 'miraculous rise of status'; by 1905, Japan was already recognized as a Major Power- 'miraculous rise' meaning fast development. It requires the '무에서 유를 창조해내다'-style development to be called 'miraculous'. And I think Korea could pull that.
 
That's fine. Take your time. By the way, where's your hometown?

I perfectly understand that you're intending to create a Korea-wank, as I'm in the process of doing so myself, but I honestly thought that you were limiting the possibilities the later you made your PoD, so I hope you understand where I'm coming from as well. I also started my timeline more than three years ago because most people seemed to think (and still do for the most part) that Korea was bound to remain as a minor "kingdom" stuck between China and Japan, both of which were considerably more developed, but this was not necessarily the case for centuries in the past. As a result, I understand the general approach that you're currently taking, but as I stated earlier, it's also extremely important to understand why and how events occurred IOTL in order to introduce significant changes, which requires society as a whole to be radically different ITTL.

I also understand your points about how Korea's recent economic growth was certainly unparalleled in many respects, in which the government pursued unique policies which suited the country well. I also believe that the Japanese occupation was certainly far from the main reason for Korea's rise as an economic power, as they gradually took over most of the arable land and exploited the Korean workers to the point where the vast majority of the profits flowed to Japan. The Japanese did construct a significant amount of infrastructure within Korea as well, but this essentially became moot during the Korean War as most of it was destroyed, not to mention that more developments had occurred in the North. The occupation also led to the significant adoption of influential Western ideas as well, although they did not integrally change Korean society as a whole.

On the other hand, there were several elements which caused Japan to widely adopt changes in the 19th century before Korea did. Korea had experienced widespread invasions for close to two millennia, causing the peninsula to rebuild over and over again after widespread destruction. In particular, the Mongol invasions most likely caused the population to plummet almost by half, and while the Imjin War was less costly, generally speaking, the population still decreased by 1-2 million, causing it to revert back to levels similar to when Joseon had been established. On the other hand, Japan's relative geographical isolation helped in part to retain centuries of population growth, and while the Sengoku Jidai severely impacted the country as a whole, the resulting devastation paled in comparison to what had occurred within Korea. The Sakoku policy also stunted Japan's economic and social growth, but most of this was diluted by the fact that it still had significant trading contacts with China, Korea, and the Ryukyus, which explains in part how it managed to retain major urban centers, as it had a significant head start on Korea in terms of the population by then. Korea was also more closely tied to China from 1392-1897, which meant that although it generally remained politically independent, political decisions were often subject to cross-checking by the court in Beijing. As a result, the Korean court's ability to conduct significant political and economic reforms in the long term was significantly limited, not to mention the various factions involved.

I also understand your point about creating "something" from "nothing," but the "nothing" often turns out be latent and/or hidden factors which only become visible after the main changes take place. I'm not necessarily saying that Korea had absolutely no chance of modernizing before Japan forced it to open its ports in 1876, but that Japan managed to overpower Korea by the late 19th century because there were several factors which made the general outcome more likely IOTL. After all, the European colonial powers gradually began to explore far-flung regions in search of resources, while the Industrial Revolution did not spread to the rest of Europe until the early 19th century or so, not to mention the widespread effects decades later. As a result, it takes decades, if not centuries, for society to make full use of the innovations that spark the potential for widespread changes, which requires a significant amount of workers and intellectuals in order to fuel the energy required. For example, it's extremely unlikely that France would have sent missionaries to other countries from around 1789-1815, as religion was heavily curtailed until 1799, while the policies implemented under Napoleon would have severely limited the intellectuals' potential to head overseas in significant numbers. The Industrial Revolution also did not significantly impact France until after Waterloo, meaning that it was probably not until around 1830 that the main effects had been felt by the public as a whole, allowing more reforms to be implemented afterwards.

In other words, it's certainly not impossible for Korea to escape the fate that it fell victim to IOTL, but Japan's parallel development, along with the gradual encroaching influence of other neighbors, like China or Russia, also need to be taken into consideration as well, which will require an immense amount of research for quite some time.
 
In addition, Joseon continued to remain under Qing influence, albeit grudgingly, until the late 19th century IOTL, so I find it hard to understand why Joseon would begin paying much attention to any of the Western Powers before China was weakened by the rebellion, given that they never had an incentive to do so IOTL.

The state was also staunchly Confucian, and had close trading and diplomatic ties with the Qing, not to mention connections with Japan and the Ryukyus, so there was no significant pressure to radically change its policies until the late 19th century or so.

I agree. In order to Korea become modernized, IMO Qing Dynasty must fall.

So what will happen if Qing Dynasty will fall during Second Opium War?
After it there will be chaos in China. It will bring instability in Joseon Dynasty. After that one of European Powers will open Joseon through Gunboat policy. Since everyone will try to get best slice from Qing Dynasty, i think Korea will be same as Siam.
In 1860's Russians will pressure from North/land, British or French will pressure from South/Sea.
This will bring alarm to Korean court for sure. Can this bring so bold reform in Korea? Korea had everything to become successfully industrialized: - abundant coal and iron - open access to world ocean.
If so I believe Korea can manage to become Great Power by 1960.

What this Korea will look like... IMO
- Annexed Liaodong Peninsula and Southern Jilin.
- Permanent member of Security counsel.
- Korea becoming leading military power of North East Asia. Nuclear Power.
- Greater Mongolia and Manchuria State becoming under influence of Korea.
- Taiwan becoming under influence of Korea.
- South East is under Korean economic influence.
 
Last edited:
I agree. In order to Korea become modernized, IMO Qing Dynasty must fall.

So what will happen if Qing Dynasty will fall during Second Opium War?
After it there will be chaos in China. It will bring instability in Joseon Dynasty. After that one of European Powers will open Joseon through Gunboat policy. Since everyone will try to get best slice from Qing Dynasty, i think Korea will be same as Siam.
In 1860's Russians will pressure from North/land, British or French will pressure from South/Sea.
This will bring alarm to Korean court for sure. Can this bring so bold reform in Korea? Korea had everything to become successfully industrialized: - abundant coal and iron - open access to world ocean.
If so I believe Korea can manage to become Great Power by 1960.

It would be far from the Western Powers' interests to let the Qing collapse, as the existence of a nominal government allowed the Europeans to carve up spheres of influence while making sure that society generally remained intact in order to obtain trading concessions. The fall of the Qing would almost certainly lead to an analogue of the Warlord Era, in which China would be fragmented among numerous regional leaders, leading to the disintegration of the central government, along with social instability for several centuries. As a result, the colonial powers as a whole would probably attempt to keep the Qing intact as long as possible in order to continuously focus on economic interests.

Siam is also not a particularly good analogy, as it essentially lost half of its territory, mostly during the late 19th century, and became a buffer state between the British and the French before the state eventually began to embark on major reforms. If a similar situation was applied to Korea, the peninsula would almost certainly be split up among multiple entities, as the population was relatively homogeneous, and there was significantly less territory to carve up. Korea could theoretically remain intact and attempt to balance foreign powers' interests, but this is essentially what occurred IOTL as well, while the situation would be extremely difficult to resolve as the peninsula would have to deal with various powers, not just two as Siam did. Korea's resources would also take some time to utilize on a widespread scale, as significant social developments must be carried out beforehand, not to mention that foreign entities could attempt to exert influence over the raw materials, which would severely limit the court's ability to reform.

What this Korea will look like... IMO
- Annexed Liaodong Peninsula and Southern Jilin.
- Permanent member of Security counsel.
- Korea becoming leading military power of North East Asia. Nuclear Power.
- Greater Mongolia and Manchuria State becoming under influence of Korea.
- Taiwan becoming under influence of Korea.
- South East is under Korean economic influence.

The Liaodong Peninsula had been relatively populated by Han Chinese since the Ming, and despite the significant loss of residents in the area during the chaotic transition from the Ming to the Qing, the area was repopulated by immigrants soon after, as the Willow Palisade only restricted immigration to what is now Jilin and Heilongjiang. In any case, another significant influx of immigrants occurred around 1820-60, not to mention after 1860, so if Korea attempted to expand into the adjacent peninsula after the Second Opium War, it would face severe resistance from the population already in place, not to mention logistical issues. The rest of the details also require a significant amount of butterflies, as Japan and China would also likely undergo similar developments, so the details before 1900 need to be tackled first before considering the situation afterwards.
 
While I try to make an intricate Alternate Timeline for Korea, please amuse yourselves with this map on my TL, dated 1900:
...and yes, that's a Korean East Africa and Japanese Somaliland.
(amongst other details, please notice how the Taipings have still survived, along with several independent states from China like Tibet, Mongolia and Nanpingguo.)

Alternate_timeline_1900.png
 
The Confederacy is alive and well, I see.
A stronger South vs North divide convinces Congress to keep military assets at home rather than across the Ocean visiting Japan, perhaps?
 
It would be far from the Western Powers' interests to let the Qing collapse, as the existence of a nominal government allowed the Europeans to carve up spheres of influence while making sure that society generally remained intact in order to obtain trading concessions.

I didn't understand you, seems you are always misinterpreting others and ignore the point.
China would collapse because of internal pressure and European can do nothing they would just try to defend their interest. Moreover before Second Opium War Europeans had little influence in internal development of Qing Dynasty.
1860's Qing had good chance of being collapsed.

Siam is also not a particularly good analogy, as it essentially lost half of its territory, mostly during the late 19th century, and became a buffer state between the British and the French before the state eventually began to embark on major reforms

Siam analogue was because of Korea will remain neutral as it will be conflict of interest between Russia and Britain/France. Otherwise Korea has good chance to become colony.

The Liaodong Peninsula had been relatively populated by Han Chinese since the Ming, and despite the significant loss of residents in the area during the chaotic transition from the Ming to the Qing, the area was repopulated by immigrants soon after, as the Willow Palisade only restricted immigration to what is now Jilin and Heilongjiang. In any case, another significant influx of immigrants occurred around 1820-60, not to mention after 1860, so if Korea attempted to expand into the adjacent peninsula after the Second Opium War, it would face severe resistance from the population already in place, not to mention logistical issues. The rest of the details also require a significant amount of butterflies, as Japan and China would also likely undergo similar developments, so the details before 1900 need to be tackled first before considering the situation afterwards.

Here we are talking about Korea ascend to Great Power Status rapidly.
If Korea ascend to Great Power status, Korea will annex Liaodong, as Japan did to Korea in 1905.
In 1860's there was around 2.5 million Chinese in Liaoning and 0,3 million in Jilin. So Korea need to absorb those Chinese as did Japanese to Taiwanese. I don't know how Korea was xenophobic, but if they are better than Japanese then it won't be much problem to absorb those Chinese and Koreanize them.
For Korea to ascend to Great Power status China need to be in choas for longer period. My Idea is China had Warlord Era analogue from 1860 to 1930.
Japan can be problem but if Korea can become British ally then Japan can do nothing. And if Korea fight during WWII on Allied side, while Japan and China fight on Axis side then after Great War Korea will ascend to Great Power of Asia.
 
While I try to make an intricate Alternate Timeline for Korea, please amuse yourselves with this map on my TL, dated 1900:
...and yes, that's a Korean East Africa and Japanese Somaliland.
(amongst other details, please notice how the Taipings have still survived, along with several independent states from China like Tibet, Mongolia and Nanpingguo.)

Here is borders of Mongolian proper and Tibetian proper.
http://stat.gogo.mn/blog/16/40176/frogprince/Mongolia 1911....jpg
 
Top