Spain enters WW2 on the side of the Allies early 1943

[mitch]

Spain enters WW2 on the side of the Allies early 1943

With the war now turning in the favour of the Allies in all theatres Spain brokers a deal with America to enter the war. The northern border is quickly secured by airborne and air forces from Britain and ground air forces from Africa. How would this change the course of WW2?

D Day?
Southern France invasion?
Italy?

[Xen]

This would take a major policy shift on the part of Franco, he didnt think Spain was ready for war so kept out of it. The allies cared very little about Franco as well. Perhaps there is a coup of some sort that favors the west?

It would be a good base of operations to fly missions over occupied France, especially one for paratroopers to be dropped behind enemy lines on D-Day.

[Wendell]

Maybe something happens that persuades Franco earlier to build up his forces, prompting the Allies to open talks with him. Surely, an agreement could be reached.

[MerryPrankster]

Originally Posted by Wendell

Maybe something happens that persuades Franco earlier to build up his forces, prompting the Allies to open talks with him. Surely, an agreement could be reached.

Hitler was PO'd at Franco for allowing Spanish embassies in occupied countries to liberally issue passports to Jews.

Perhaps he does a threatening demonstration on the border with the Pyrenees, or a Spanish embassy somewhere is raided. Franco concludes that his own liquidation is near and throws in with the Allies.

Or perhaps the Free French offers Franco some African territory after the war.

[Wendell]

Originally Posted by MerryPrankster

Hitler was PO'd at Franco for allowing Spanish embassies in occupied countries to liberally issue passports to Jews.

Perhaps he does a threatening demonstration on the border with the Pyrenees, or a Spanish embassy somewhere is raided. Franco concludes that his own liquidation is near and throws in with the Allies.

Or perhaps the Free French offers Franco some African territory after the war.

I was thinking that, or Rousillon...

[Condottiero]

Although Franco knew he could not enter the war due to the situation after the Civil War, he hoped that the British could offer him Gibraltar as payment. He would have got rid of the pro-nazi elements of his government and have declared enthusiastiacally war over Germany. Recovering Gibraltar would have increased his prestige inside Spain.

The idea of the Rousillon would have also been intriguing and would have also been considered by him as a suitable price...

[mitch]

So most agree that Spain under the right conditions would enter the war on the side of the allies. So what changes to the OTL would happen from Jan 43?

[Hendryk]

There could be a reason for Franco to have Spain join the Allies: if he was led, whether deliberately or unwittingly, to conclude that Spain would be next on the Allies' list after Germany, Italy and the various two-bit pro-fascist regimes in Central Europe. After all his regime did take over with help from Germany and Italy, and whether officially neutral or not, his position may not have seemed that secure. So, ostensibly joining the Allies before the widely expected invasion takes place, he figures, would buy him enough goodwill to remain in power after Mussolini and Hitler have been deposed.

One critical strategic consequence is that the Allies now have a ready foothold on the Continent, and no longer need to plan for a risky landing on the French coastline; instead they can just ferry troops from Britain and North Africa to Spain, and prepare for a crossing of the Pyrénées. This would likely be a two-prong offensive, to take simultaneously Biarritz on the Atlantic coast and Perpignan on the Mediterranean coast, which depending on how early Franco announces his decision, could take place in the summer of 1943. France could realistically be liberated by January 1944, and, with Italy a target of lesser relevance, the Allied forces could focus on the German front, making it on the outskirts of Berlin while the Red Army is still in Poland, making for a noticeably different post-war situation.

[Karlos]

I don't think Franco would risk a war against Hitler before the americans had landed in France. And after that, the allies don't really need him. Other consequence would be the 20-30.000 french resistance fighters who were actually spaniards, veterans from the civil war, most of them communists. They formed the backbone of the french resistance in the south of France and would surely fight against Franco forces if they crossed the border.

[Wozza]

Originally Posted by mitch

So most agree that Spain under the right conditions would enter the war on the side of the allies. So what changes to the OTL would happen from Jan 43?

No.

It is unlikely that the Allies will offer a good enough deal. The advantages to them are not as large as they should be.

The logistics of deploying a major army in Spain are a complete nightmare. Getting that army over the Pyrenees an even bigger one.
Remember the option of landing is Portugal and going through Spain by force was considered.
This way of doing things is a lot easier than that, but how much?

[Condottiero]

Originally Posted by Wozza

No.

It is unlikely that the Allies will offer a good enough deal. The advantages to them are not as large as they should be.

The logistics of deploying a major army in Spain are a complete nightmare. Getting that army over the Pyrenees an even bigger one.
Remember the option of landing is Portugal and going through Spain by force was considered.
This way of doing things is a lot easier than that, but how much?

A lot easier? Ask Napoleon.

[Wozza]

Originally Posted by Condottiero

A lot easier? Ask Napoleon.

That is why being invited is easier than fighting.

Of course Napoleon did not have railways, let alone aircraft.

no opposition is always a lot easier than opposition anyway!

[mitch]

We managed to land and supply an army in 1812 and get it across the Pyrenees

[Wozza]

Originally Posted by mitch

We managed to land and supply an army in 1812 and get it across the Pyrenees

Do you think that might have weaknesses as an analogy??

compared perhaps to the logistics difficulties of the Allies in Normandy in late 1944?

Fundamentally this is an either/or proposition, if the Allies do not secure the passes over the Pyrenees then the whole operation was pointless.

[WFHermans]

It would be most fun if the allies would have offered Franco a slice of southern France. Sort of what they did to Poland.
The Gaulle explodes almost with anger, suspected of trying to team up with Germany, then mysteriously getting killed by an "acident" in 1943 like Sikorski in our timeline.

The battle for the Pyrenees would be the same slow slugfest as the battles in the italian mountains were in our timeline.

[Earling]

Doomed from the start.

Unless Franco could somehow muster enough forces to take the passes through the Pyrenees and somehow hold them long enough for significant Allied forces to arrive (so several weeks going on months) the passes shall be fortified in sufficient strength to easilly oppose anything the Allies can deploy against them. It would be Italy all over again. Its highly unlikely the Allies can conceal the build up of several million men in Spain.

On the otherhand it could be a useful distraction for D-day, potentially enabling a swifter break out.

[mitch]

The battle of the Atlantic was still in the balance in 43 so the use of air bases in northern Spain would make a massive difference in the bay of biscay.
Wouldn't some of the forces that attacked Italy just be shifted to Spain. This would result in a shift of divisions from the atlantic wall south. AirBases would allow almost total coverage of France during any invasion in Normandy.
A force in Spain would allow a smaller force to be used in southern Italy with the only aim of forcing the germans to spread forces everywhere. Remember moving forces around without aircover which the Germans would have to do would be difficult plus an attack into southern France would be a real option. As good as the German Army was in 43 to 44 it cannot be in two places at once

[Wendell]

Originally Posted by WFHermans

It would be most fun if the allies would have offered Franco a slice of southern France. Sort of what they did to Poland.
The Gaulle explodes almost with anger, suspected of trying to team up with Germany, then mysteriously getting killed by an "acident" in 1943 like Sikorski in our timeline.

The battle for the Pyrenees would be the same slow slugfest as the battles in the italian mountains were in our timeline.

Southern France is where one finds Rousillon

That said, imagine a Spanish occupation zone in Germany....

[JimmyJimJam]

Originally Posted by Wozza

No.

It is unlikely that the Allies will offer a good enough deal. The advantages to them are not as large as they should be.

The logistics of deploying a major army in Spain are a complete nightmare. Getting that army over the Pyrenees an even bigger one.
Remember the option of landing is Portugal and going through Spain by force was considered.
This way of doing things is a lot easier than that, but how much?

And the Normandy invasion wasnt a complete logistics nightmare?

[Wendell]

Originally Posted by JimmyJimJam

And the Normandy invasion wasnt a complete logistics nightmare?

It could have been worse...