Without an Eclipse: Higher goes the Rising Sun

Darkest

Banned
This is the alternate timeline that Birdie and I are working on, the POD being that Japan never stalls with its economical crashes in the early 1990s. Its economy continues progressing at a rate comparable to the 1970s and the 1980s. This leads to, of many things, technological advancements, a stealthy ascent of the Rising Sun to superpower status, and a space race. This is something of a utopian scenario, which begins to lead slightly downward in following decades. But feel free to add some dark events to color the ATL plausibly, if you will.

Please comment and give suggestions, so that we can polish up 1985 - 2010 to post in the Timelines and Scenarios forum. Thank you!

Without an Eclipse
Higher goes the Rising Sun

1985

Japan invents the 'breadmaker' home appliance, which becomes popular in the United Kingdom and the United States.

Japan consents to the economical suggestions made by the United States, raising the value of the yen and opening up its markets to benefit U.S. importing. The Diet also subject the country to a serious general financial reform to counter against the United States harnessing too much of the Japanese economical steamroller.

This will prevent the stockmarket crash of the early 90s and significantly strengthen already strong American-Japanese relations.

1986

Christa McAuliffe teaches the first science lesson in space, aboard Space Shuttle Challenger.

1987

Second Black Tuesday occurs, with stock market crashes around the world. It is somewhat less serious than in OTL.

1988

A plebiscite in Chile returns the country to democracy after fifteen years under Pinochet. Chile will quickly become a regional trade-hub.

Iran signs the UNSC Resolution 598, ending the Iran-Iraq war.

1989

Japan tries but fails to acquire an aircraft carrier, causing some to raise doubts about Japans 'checkbook' diplomacy.

Military occupation of Namibia by South Africa ends due to UN intervention.

1990

Yemen reunifies.

A bout of national interest in space endeavors leads to several government discussions on the ambitious idea of a Japanese space program rivalling that of the United States and is seen as realistic within the country.

Malaysia continues to grow economically along with the other Asian Tigers.

1991

The MiniDisc by Sony is released, for both audio and computer data storage. It will become extremely popular in Japan, and moderately successful in Europe and the US.

The Collapse of the Soviet Union. With the Chernobyl plant exploding in July, and Soviet efforts to conceal such, a continental signal is given for independence. The SSRs begin a united effort at deposing the Soviets from power. With only two weeks, Mikhail Gorbachev the Reformer is put under house arrest by hardliners, sovereignty is given to the SSRs, and the Soviet Union becomes no more with the creation of the Russian Federation and the Commonwealth of Independent States.

East Germany reunifies with Western Germany with the tearing apart of the Berlin Wall.

Japanese contributes substantial financial aid to the Gulf War that breaks out between the United States and the expansionism of Saddam Hussein, strengthening international relations. American politicians come to believe that Japan should use its wealth to become more active in world affairs, especially in situations where global resources are at stake. The events of the Gulf War occur much like OTL, with fewer US casualties and more successes against the Iraqis.

A major difference is the creation of a sovereign, independent Iraqi Kurdistan by the Bush administration because of promises made to Kurdish leaders preceding their assistance in the war.

The Wars of Yugoslav Succession begin, independence movements force a civil war within the collapsing nation. Slobodan Miloslevic is able to diffuse some situations and barely averts a much bloodier war, though there are significant casualties and mobilizations of armies and peacekeeper forces. Slovenia gains independence quite quickly in a Ten-Day War. Croatia's government declares independence, and mobilizes its forces to attack border militaries, which begins Croatian hate-racism throughout the rest of the Balkans.

Slobodan Miloslevic is soon assassinated by what appears to be Croatian covert soldiers, falling in the same day as a notable Muslim Bosniak leader dies from a heart attack, presumed to be poison.

No massacre is featured on Portuguese televisions from Indonesia and the massacres in East Timor. No foreign aid is given. Significant reports of the violations of human rights do force the UN to make certain judgements about Indonesia, but no action is taken. Arms continue to be sold at East Timor, and the war of resistance by Timorese rebels continues as a cruel, bloody feud.

The first web site is built and hosted at CERN.

1992

Bill Clinton is elected President of the United States.

[Conflicts]
A democratic push establishes some kind of neutrality between the Bosniaks and the Serbs, holding them together against Croatia.

Hugo Chavez, with more than 20% of the Venezuelan army on his side, leads seven army units into urban Caracas on January 21st. Select betrayals limit the effectiveness of the campaign, but when prerecorded tapes are broadcasted on the airwaves, Chavez gets what he wants with something of civilian aid in the coup d'etat. On that night, Chavez' followers are able to capture Perez, as well as Miraflores presidential palace, the defense ministry, the La Carlota military airport but fail to take the soldier-fortified Historical Museum. The museum is taken a week afterwards.

Seven weeks of open rebellion follow, with civilian uprises taking control over large Venezuelan cities such as Valencia, Maracaibo, and Maracay. After forty-nine days, the entirety of Caracas is taken. Hugo Chavez declared the rebellion over, and successful. The coup d'etat would be in disapproval of nations across the world, especially with the United States.

The number seven becomes a national symbol of pride, due to the coincidences of the rebellion following it. It can compared to the November, 11 @ 11:00 lore of the end of World War II.

Massacres, mass rioting, and rebellion begins in South Africa due to the assassination of popular African leaders and UN politicians working with the apartheid conflict. When many citizens are found dead due to the use of chemical warfare, the crisis prompts the mobilization of NATO coalition forces. The United Kingdom takes an active part in the operations, along with the United States. Soldiers storm Cape Town and land in Pretoria, leading rebel forces and certain factions of the South African military against those clinging to apartheism.

The US finds this as one more woe of the turn of the decade, along with the Yugoslav Wars and the Gulf War, and it strains their militaries.

[Technology]
The Japanese Aerospace Development Agency (JADA) space agency organized.

Increased interest of the Japanese space program due to the formation of JADA leads to greater funds being allocated towards the initiative. The future of Japan looks hopeful, and the turn of the decade emphasizes a proud cultural realization. It is in these years that a boom of anime and Japanese-related items appear in the creative market of the United States. Such ideas continue to influence American arts.

1993

[Politics]
A temporary junta takes power in Venezuela, to be lifted in two years for popular elections to take place. This soothes international conflicts with the nation in turmoil.

The last remnants of pro-apartheid South Africans surrender, and the nation of South Africa enters a period of political fury. Mandela was made a martyr in the first massacres, and de Kirk expresses no desire to become a candidate. A transitional government instead takes power to create a new constitution. The subject of a new name comes up to strengthen national pride and remove the traces of imperialism upon their country. A referendum has the country renamed to the Democratic Republic of Azania, thanks to major contribution from the Azanian People's Organization during the rebellion of 1992.

Eritrea gains independence from Ethiopia through a peaceful referendum

Japan manages to get US support for a re-armament program by promising to remain firm allies with the United States and act within the motivations of America.

Given the growing threat of China and North Korea, as well as the fact that Japan is the new economic and technological superpower in the region and growing still, the government increases defense spending and begins to buy weapons from abroad. The United States assists Japan on commencing a satellite-building program. With some coordination with America, Japan begins research for the later stages of their space plan.

Japan offers significant financial support to Russian market-oriented economic reforms and humanitarian aid as part of war concessions. Japanese-Russian relations, never strong, are encouraged to grow because of this charitable move.

[Conflicts]
Operation Gothic Serpent over Mogadishu is successful, the US regiment captures Omar Salad and his top political advisor, Mohamed Hassan Awale quickly and promptly, helping pacify the situation in the area.

Turkey and Iran see a more powerful and violent Kurd movement within their territory advocating an expansion of Kurdistan, a movement that includes acts of terrorism around the borders. This is deliberately against the measures set into place by the United States and the United Nations. With election crises prompting civil war, the Arab League pressures the United Nations to dissolve the nation into Iraq or give authority over it to other nations.

[Technology]
The California-based Iomega Corporation releases the Zip drive, which provides substantial competition with the Sony MiniDisc.

Sony and Nintendo release the PlayStation in Japan and the United States, which becomes a huge hit in the consumer market.

The Global Positioning System (GPS) is declared fully operational.

1994

[Politics]
Transitional government controlled by a political council unifies Bosnia, Serbia, and Montenegro together into the Federal Republic of Slavia. Other nations surviving the Yugoslav Wars include Albania, Croatia, Slovenia, and Macedonia. Sovereignty is dealt out from various nations. Tensions continue in varying severity between the different ethnic groups, but pro-peace moderates generally take the stage to prevent major atrocities.

Many schools in Australia, France, the United States, and the United Kingdom, begin including Japanese language in their curriculum, recognizing the ascendance of Japan into the current age.

Marcus Bird, a little-known black school teacher formerly from Cape Town, who became a war hero during the 1992 Revolution, with minor political experience, becomes the major candidate in the elections of South Africa. South Africans see him as a charismatic, down-to-earth politician of the people. Sponsorship from reputable individuals allows him to come into the spotlight. The new constitution, very democratic and well-written, comes into power and receives wide support in a national referendum. Very learned and proactive, Marcus Bird fast becomes popular and is elected the first President of the Democratic Republic of Azania that year.

Japan rearms with American, British and French weapons. Beijing sees this as somewhat threatening; they increase their rate of modernization of their military as well. Looking over the Persian Gulf War, they find how efficient modern weaponry and tactics are against the aging weapons of the Cold War used by Saddam. The People's Republic of China undergoes military reform as well, as incognito as Japan.

Japan begins a program to create a new carrier for the national forces, with U.S. technical assistance.

[Conflict]
Japan’s neighbors return with alarm and suspicion with leaking reports of Japan’s militarization. North Korean dictator Kim Jung Il declares that Japan is aiming to re-conquer Korea and calls for reunification (under northern ideals). He gets no reply. His words are used to emphasize the threat he is by the Japanese government and to justify the transformation of Japan's military.

The Rwandan genocide begins, in which Hutus and Tutsis begin a rebellion after the President of the country leaves his post for Morocco, never to return, without making any amends to the government. Political confusion prompted the racism issues in the country to devolve into a bloody civil war. Of all the nations in the world, only Japan recognizes Rwanda's horrible crisis and sends a huge number of soldiers without the consent of other countries to aid in bringing peace and aid. Many were still killed, though Japan helped considerably and was made to look like something of a hero by the media and bringing scorn to other nations. Shortly after the U.N. arrives to do what they can to stabilize the nation. More Hutus and Tutsis survive, however, and their intentions of spilling blood aren't entirely spent.

[Technology]
Japan continues to diversify and encourage innovation, attempting to emulate the new high-tech industries of the United States - new science parks are built and places like Tsukuba Science city are expanded. Attempts are made to encourage individual entrepreneurship within the student population. This leads to a less strict and competitive education system although education and hard work are still extolled.

Sony releases the Digital Mavica, the digital camera that records on floppy disks.

1995

[Politics]
Venezuela begins democratic elections on time par to the agreement made two years ago. Hugo Chavez is successfully elected President, and becomes head of the government once more. He renames the country to the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, complete with a new constitution. Chavez also launches the Bolivarian Mission Plans, a series of social justice, social welfare, anti-poverty, and educational programs aimed to galvanize the population into social revolution.

Japan begins a large aid mission in Somalia and Eastern Africa, which are enforced by UN peacekeepers and some Japanese soldiers. Warlords fire upon the humanitarian missions, causing impromptu battles. Japanese will be stalwart, however, and continue their missions.

The Fourth Enlargement of the European Union takes place, with Austria, Greenland, Finland, Sweden, Iceland and Norway all becoming member states after popular referenda. There is some debate over the admission of Iceland and Norway, whose referendum only barely succeeded, and their conflict over territorial fishing waters. The Stockholm Protection Agency is created as a result, including the states of Greenland, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, which advocates a unique council to respect territorial issues of these members of the European Union.

In an internationally surprising announcement, Russia announces that they would withdraw from Japanese Sakhalin, as per a finally agreed peace treaty. Japan announces the payment of a huge sum as part of the treaty in war compensation. Russian sovereignty over the Kuril Islands is acknowledged. A huge strain lifts from Russo-Japanese relations.

[Conflict]
The controversial Kurdistan question is looked over with the events of the year. Baghdad under Hussein moves against the area in response to terrorism, and holds the territory, prompting a response from the US-headed coalition force in Operation Second Strike. Japan is a huge benefactor throughout the endeavor. The decision to oust Saddam Hussein is made and he is imprisoned to be tried for war crimes. Japan sends soldiers over to assist in the occupation of Baghdad and abound. The country is to undergo US-directed reforms and the creation of a new democratic constitution.

The Kobe earthquake in Japan is a devastating event that is met with many foreign promises of assistance. A significant movement to design new measures to prevent earthquake deaths begins, with high-technology programs being put in place to look at manipulating the vibration of the Earth to stop earthquakes in their tracks. This will by no means be a successful enterprise, but will be the first serious look into developing related technologies.

East Timorese resistance has fallen short, with the loss of nearly half of the region's population. Several parties sign treaties with Suharto after their leaders are captured and imprisoned for life. Portugal and the UN still argue for a state to be created, and do not acknowledge sovereignty.

[Technology]
Freemail is released on the world-wide web, a huge easily-accessible web-mail service.

Digital Audio Player is released by the SaeHan Corporation of South Korea, and quickly becomes popular.

A capsule is sent into orbit with a Japanese astronaut, making it the first time a Japanese man has gone up in space on a Japanese space craft - the event initiates a wave of patriotism and support for the space program and cements the belief that Japan is finally a great power again, just the thing the country needs after the major earthquake. Japan continues to prosper, though the space program is given a well-earned short term rest.

This prompts other nations across the globe that Japan may stealthily take over the United States and Europe, so they in turn improve their space programs and related activities. This causes the first beginnings of a space race.

Personal video recorders released widescale.

The first clone is produced, a pig named Cannelle, in France. It is seconded the same year in South Korea with a cow that dies after five months.

*****

Expect a map soon!
 
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Japan begins donating significant aid to the new Federation of Russia, encouraging democracy and humanitarian efforts.
is this After a peace treaty ending WW2 is signed --As OTL Russia and Japan are still techinacally at war.

In an internationally surprising announcement, Russia agrees to sell the southern part of Sakhalin to Japan for much needed financial compensation,

Russia wouldn't sell this, they would simply annouce, that they were withdrawing from Japanese Sakhalkin, as per a finally agreed peace treaty,
Japan would annouce that they were paying XX$$ as compecation for the War, as their part of the Treaty.
 
Great TL:) . Maybe Japan developes close allies in Africa through the Rwanda crisis- I'd say that Japan needs a friendly country in East Africa to use as a base for that operation.

Maybe with a final peace treaty with Russia, Japan can increase its wealth and influence by developing Siberia, maybe paying the Russians for mining rights etc and heavily investing in the region.

maybe Japan will accept some Rwandans and others as refugees in Japan itself- i think in OTL a few hundread Ksovans were Japans first refugees.
I know Japan has some 'issues' with foreigners but currently there is a debate over there on whether to open the country to immigrants or not.
If Japan is more involved in world affairs and extremely rich maybe its a possibility- or might it be just too utopian
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Hmmm...

Besides the fact that the Japanese economic expansion continuing violates every law of economics that exists (sorry, but the entire premise is ASB), let's take a look here...

1986 - What saves Challenger?

1989 - When did Japan overturn the Constitution? Full deck carriers are an offensive weapon, hence denied by the Constitution. In the mid-80's there was some talk about building a 16K ton ASW carrier, this was killed in the Diet as being too close to an offensive platform IF Harriers were made available.

1991 - The mini disc? Surely you jest!

What held up the USSR for the extra 2 years?

BTW: USSR still in the game = No Gulf War, at least not in 1991. NATO can't move the troops & equipment away from Fulda until the Bear withdraws from the region.

Independent Kurdistan? How many American troops die each week keeping the Turks at bay? Politically, Turkey can NEVER accept an independent Kurdistan. NEVER.

Slobodan Miloslevic is a murderous pig, who created and led the worst European example of racial hate since Stalin killed off Hitler. It is doubtful that he could even conceptualize the idea of moderate peacemaking, much less prevent a war.

1992 - Hugo Chavez Dies no later than March 1. Money in the bank. He DOESN'T have 80% of the army or the Big dollar folks. If he gets installed in a coup, the U.S. has no reason to be squeamish when a counter-coup reinstalls the ELECTED government.

The UNITED STATES & NATO intervene in a civil war taking place in South Africa? Bill suddenly learn to inhale?

1993 - Peaceful break-up of Ethiopia? ASB's are busy bastards in this TL.

When did the JAPANESE PEOPLE rewrite the Constitution? You will need some super significant POD to get the Peace Constitution overturned.

1994 - ??? The Bosnians & Serbs hate each other with a passion that is difficult for outsiders to understand. Miloslevic is just the best known of the racists that swarm over the entire region, especially in Serbia, killing him would change nothing. Serbia has been at odds with the rest of the Balkans for the better part of the last thousand years; while the rest of the ethnic groups in the region have a go at each other whenever the opprotunity presents itself. About the only thing that is generally agree on is that EVERYONE hates: #1. The Serbs & #2. Everyone else. Anyone making voluntary union with Serbia is ASBish at best.

"Beijing sees this as somewhat threatening..." China sees a REARMED Japan as SOMEWHAT threatening? :eek: This is a country that goes apeshit when the Japanese PM visits a SHRINE! Ye Gods!

How, exactly, does Japan manage to get a "Huge" number of troops into Rwanda in time? Let's see... No sea lift to bring supplies to deployed troops, no allies in the region to land the supplies, Rwanda is a landlocked state with exactly ONE 10,000 foot runway. A pair of two man RPG teams will be able to keep even one Japanese soldier from setting foot on the tarmac alive (747's burn REALLY well when hit by explosives). The killings after the 1st few days were out in the smaller towns and villages (where, BTW, only 600 miles of paved roads connect them). Even the U.S. military, which has the lift, the allies, the troops, the specially trained Rangers to capture the runway, yada, yada, yada, would have been hard pressed to act in time.

1995 - Greenland became independent when?

Well, that covers the high points. :D

Best of luck with the TL.
 

Darkest

Banned
Thank you CalBear! I have been lax without good constructive criticism.

Besides the fact that the Japanese economic expansion continuing violates every law of economics that exists (sorry, but the entire premise is ASB), let's take a look here...

Wikipedia said:
The economic miracle ended abruptly at the very start of the 1990s. In the late 1980s, abnormalities within the Japanese economic system had fueled a massive wave of speculation by Japanese companies, banks and securities companies. Briefly, a combination of incredibly high land values and incredibly low interest rates led to a position in which credit was both easily available and extremely cheap.

Abnormalities are removed through wise financial planning on a national scale. Japan takes US suggestions to raise the value of the yen. This will probably lead to the bubble popping somewhat, and a period of economic slow growth... but not a crash. The banking sector will probably have a crisis, and real estate will slowly sink down to realistic levels... but Japan doesn't slam into a wall.

What saves Challenger?

Butterflies and luck. Technical difficulties are discovered early, and fixed. Not ASB.

1989 - When did Japan overturn the Constitution? Full deck carriers are an offensive weapon, hence denied by the Constitution. In the mid-80's there was some talk about building a 16K ton ASW carrier, this was killed in the Diet as being too close to an offensive platform IF Harriers were made available.

Oy, right, this is too early for that. I'm not just lying to save face, I seriously accidentally misplaced that event chronologically.

The mini disc? Surely you jest!

Sony does better. Technology does better. Ideas become realized sooner. Butterflies and progress.

What held up the USSR for the extra 2 years?

Love and friendship. No, seriously, what do you mean by this question. 1991 was the year of the collapse, the end of the Cold War! All that happens differently is that the Chernobyl accident happens later, in a crucial period that signals multiple revolutions.

@Kurdistan and Slobodan - You might just be right. Checking my sources...

Hugo Chavez Dies no later than March 1. Money in the bank. He DOESN'T have 80% of the army or the Big dollar folks. If he gets installed in a coup, the U.S. has no reason to be squeamish when a counter-coup reinstalls the ELECTED government.

The rebels were already holding major cities! Venezuelans HATED Carlos Perez! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mauritania#August_2005.2C_Military_coup No one seemed to mind. Normalization is possible. Remember, at this time, the United States didn't hate Chavez. He could have been seen as productive for the country after the Perez scandal involving US funds.

The UNITED STATES & NATO intervene in a civil war taking place in South Africa? Bill suddenly learn to inhale?

Chemical warfare and audio-visual records of such can do wonders, especially under what was viewed as a monstrous government. Maybe not NATO, I see what you mean... the UN?

Peaceful break-up of Ethiopia? ASB's are busy bastards in this TL.

But Eritrea DID separate peacefully in OTL, no ASBs about it. Referendum qualified the creation of the Eritrean state carved out of Ethiopia.

When did the JAPANESE PEOPLE rewrite the Constitution? You will need some super significant POD to get the Peace Constitution overturned.

They got United States consent to create a more powerful security force. No rewriting of the Constitution necessary, just slight re-interpretation of the boundaries of the constitution.

1994 - ??? The Bosnians & Serbs hate each other with a passion that is difficult for outsiders to understand. Miloslevic is just the best known of the racists that swarm over the entire region, especially in Serbia, killing him would change nothing. Serbia has been at odds with the rest of the Balkans for the better part of the last thousand years; while the rest of the ethnic groups in the region have a go at each other whenever the opprotunity presents itself. About the only thing that is generally agree on is that EVERYONE hates: #1. The Serbs & #2. Everyone else. Anyone making voluntary union with Serbia is ASBish at best.

You are right, I didn't research enough into the topic. If anything, the Balkans should be more separated, not less.

"Beijing sees this as somewhat threatening..." China sees a REARMED Japan as SOMEWHAT threatening? This is a country that goes apeshit when the Japanese PM visits a SHRINE! Ye Gods!

Okay, I'll rewrite. Yeesh, just a little connotation error.

@Rwanda - You are right, this needs to be reworked.

Greenland joins Denmark in the transition to European Union member status.

Wendell said:
Why so many changes?

Many alternate history writers like to make use of as little changes to their timeline as possible, believing there is some kind of 'historical momentum'. I believe the opposite, in that butterflies can cause everything to turn out different. Just a different style of writing.

Thanks for the suggestions!
 
I don't see why Japan would push for a space program so strongly. China only did to play catch-up with America and Russia. Seeing from the TL that Japan isn't trying to rival either of these nations, I don't see a reason for this to happen.

The intervention of South Africa, I don't really see happening. For one, it doesn't have oil. In addition, I don't think South Africa is going to be like Iraq.

Lastly, Somalia is still going to be plagued by warlords even if you remove one of the big players. It's not going to be pacified anytime soon till you get one strong, central authority.
 
I don't see why Japan would push for a space program so strongly. China only did to play catch-up with America and Russia. Seeing from the TL that Japan isn't trying to rival either of these nations, I don't see a reason for this to happen.

.


well OTL they had pretty ambitous plans for a space program during the period of high growth. i should try and find a link.
 
South Africa doesn't have oil, but it has LOTS of gold, diamonds, and other strategic minerals. Not to mention the Cape straddles a vital oil/raw materials route. Rwanda could melt down without affecting the global economy too much--South Africa is another matter.

No need to be so one-sided about the Serbs. Their basic premise--if Croatia, Bosnia, etc had the right to leave Yugoslavia, then the Serbs who wanted to stay could counter-secede from Croatia and Bosnia--doesn't seem so bad. West Virginia did it in OTL. The problem with Serbia is that its government was dominated by a ruthless goon who either ordered or allowed through inaction very nasty things.

Eritrea separated after a 30-year-long rebellion. The actual secession occurred peacefully b/c of the post-Communist government allowed a vote to take place, and the formal secession occurred after the vote.
 
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