AHC: Plausible reason for a tech-advanced ATL with no spaceflight technology

I've read bits of Stephenson's Anathem recently, and it kind of got me thinking...

Imagine a typical ATL, like the ones we write about all the time. It is currently in the 21st century. In terms of technology, almost absolutely everything is the same as in OTL. With the exception of a few technologies. Communication tech is a bit backwards. But that's just the tip of the iceberg. The backwardness is partly due to a complete absence of spaceflight tech. Something happened. Maybe the reasons were cultural, maybe social, maybe economic, maybe political, maybe complete and utter happenstance. But, whatever they were, people ITTL have never sent so much as a screw above Earth's atmosphere. They have advanced aircraft, nukes, comps as powerful as ours, more primitive mobiles... But no one has ever really developed rocketry or some other method.

This challenge is simple : Come up with a plausible explanation for WHY this is the way it is. NO ASB explanations (geology/biology/physics), no "they have wacky taboos" handwaves, just plausible explanations for why this particular type of tech never took off and why people aren't even interested in it.
 
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Some sort of world dominated by theocracy? The only countries capable of inventing that technology are perhaps legally subject to a religion which considers traveling into space to be blasphemy for whatever reason.
 
Some sort of world dominated by theocracy? The only countries capable of inventing that technology are perhaps legally subject to a religion which considers traveling into space to be blasphemy for whatever reason.

no "they have wacky taboos" handwaves,

That said...

I can see a world where the tech is largely limited to ICBMs, but preventing those is a bigger issue.

It's pretty easy to kill a lot of the orbital satellite industry. Consider Soviet paranoia about Western recon sats. Have the Soviets come up with the political clout to shoot down any foreign satellite above their territory, on the grounds that 200km is still their airspace. This is enough to remove a lot of the usefulness of recon satellites, and the utility of those satellites will keep decreasing the further up one makes the boundary of a nation's airspace.

It's difficult to design an earth orbit that avoids the USSR while still being useful to most industrial concerns--can't have polar orbits, for example.

If the Soviets start using ASATs in the 1950s (and it's not difficult to bring that about), then the US would not press for recon sats as hard as it did IOTL. No Keyholes, less scientific and commercial observation satellites, more reliance on conventional airplanes for that sort of thing, etc. Not quite no space technology (geostationary orbits would be mostly untouched, reasonably, so you can still see comms sats), but a lot of the rest of the industry is crippled, and with it interest in things like crewed spacecraft.

That's one idea, anyway. Let's try a few others.

The difficulty is that ICBMs feed pretty neatly into satellites, and ICBMs are of rather high military utility, so it's difficult to kill those without destroying the entire Inter-War rocketry tradition (Von Braun, Korolev, Oberth, Goddard, the BIS, etc). You would have to strangle the idea of rockets as anything but a battlefield weapon in its cradle.

Could it be done? Perhaps. No V-2, less US Army interest in rockets. No Korolev or Glushko, and the Soviets will have to find another way to deter the American B-52 fleet (cruise missiles?).

How to neutralize the tradition, though?

No Soviet Union, perhaps? A Tsarist or democratic regime would not have the ideological fixation on modernity that brought Tsiolkovsky a significant measure of notoriety in the 1920s, and it might not be quite so hostile to the West, and so have less need of a deterrent years later. Maybe Korolev, no matter how much Tsiolkovsky actually influenced him IOTL (he disputed that Tsiolkovsky was at all inspirational to him), ends up a Russian Goddard--an eccentric who never gets beyond the hobby phase. His engineers go on to build air-breathing engines. Same for Von Braun. By the 1950s, space travel exists solely in literature that schoolteachers discourage their pupils from reading.

But I don't think it's possible to keep the tech down forever. Unaligned dictatorships would see value in a weapon that can't be shot down and which strikes from the very heavens. And it's easier to persuade one man that you're right than it is to persuade a nation--especially if that man is an eccentric with a weakness to flattery. Consider Saddam Hussein and the Babylon Gun. But I suppose it's possible for random chance to keep it from getting any further than that project did.

I read a short story with a similar premise--Moon Six, by Stephen Baxter.
 

katchen

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How about the premise of Robert Winrod's Chung-Kuo--a China dominated world. The Chinese are 1/4/ of mankind. If any one country can establish a one world government, it's China. And the Chinese have had a long track record of suppressing technologies they consider "disharmonious". Space technology could be seen to be so, simply because it could lead to people living in outer space beyond the reach of Earth based governments and dropping meteors on Earth that Chung-Kuo cannot deflect. So nip the whole thing in the bud.
 
Some sort of world dominated by theocracy? The only countries capable of inventing that technology are perhaps legally subject to a religion which considers traveling into space to be blasphemy for whatever reason.

I've thought about this solution, but it ultimately falls into the "wacky taboos" box.

How about the premise of Robert Winrod's Chung-Kuo

But the Chung-Kuo series is a future history, not an AH.

That's one idea, anyway. Let's try a few others.

(...)

How to neutralize the tradition, though?

Aye, valid points, as well as the rest. :)

I read a short story with a similar premise--Moon Six, by Stephen Baxter.

Ah, Baxter again... I might check that story out.
 
After Germany uses rockets to bombard London, complete with chemical and biological weapons, rockets above a certain size are associated with WMDs and are prohibited under the various Geneva and Nuclear treaties.

Possesion of rockets is about as allowable ITTL as chemical weapons. USA and USSR could deploy them but the backlash from their allies would be so great that both decide to use bombers and hi altitude balloons for communication purposes.
 
After Germany uses rockets to bombard London, complete with chemical and biological weapons, rockets above a certain size are associated with WMDs and are prohibited under the various Geneva and Nuclear treaties.

Possesion of rockets is about as allowable ITTL as chemical weapons. USA and USSR could deploy them but the backlash from their allies would be so great that both decide to use bombers and hi altitude balloons for communication purposes.

You certainly put a lot of faith in people being nice and not manufacturing them despite the obvious risks and probable political/social backlash. :p

But it isn't a complete stretch, so I'm willing to give your idea the benefit of the doubt. :)

Though, as far as the implications go, I guess TTL's attitudes towards nukes and other more powerful WMDs will (logically, by extension) be a lot more hostile as well. If they are affraid of rockets and cruise missiles, then nukes - whether carried aboard rockets or bomber aircraft - would be seen by them as the spawn of utter evil.
 
BOOM!!!

If rockets above a certain size are unacceptable, and have to be developped in secret, thast might kill them. You can develop a germ or gas molecule--even a nuclear weapon--in a lab--but a rocket has to explode---err...fly many times befoore anything big is remotely reliable.

However, if you kill low to mid earth orbit, you likely kill geostationary orbit, since there's no logical tech progression that leads you there.

Of course, no spaceflight tech doesn't preclude a larger version of the Paris Gun for shooting bombs a LONG ways...
 
Any other ideas, gents ?
Two.

1.) Perhaps some sort of major space disaster, or series of disasters? The first few flights explode and barely get off the launch pad. Perhaps a rocket explodes over a city, causing large bits of debris to heavily damage the area.

2.) No countries have the technology or money to do it. Basically a dystopia where the entire world is made up of third world countries wracked by war and famine, who have no time to look to the stars.
 
Not bad. I like those, though the most plausible way would be long-lasting technological backwardness.

As for space disasters... Maybe some star goes nova close to Earth (yeah, I know, this is entering ASB territory) and forces all potential electronic equipment to go on the fritz ? Maybe even indefinitely. True, you don't need complex electronic tech to launch a rocket with a manned spacecraft to orbit, but it certainly helps to have such a capability.
 
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Apropos, two of Tony Jones' TLs have belated or non-existant rocketry tech :

In Cliveless World, while spaceflight has been achieved by the 1990s, it is still rather primitive and not very high-flying. To get an idea of what has been achieved, think of "Alan Shephard's flea-jump aboard Freedom 7". Also, importantly, the engineers of the TL seem to have a fixation on the application of LVs as mail rockets, and seem to have less of an intention of using them for orbital or BEO flights. Though that attitude might be changing, since the TL's France eventually launches the first geosynchronus satellite in 1999.

In Puritan World, the world is basically mostly a dystopia and skepticism towards science is far greater than in OTL. At the end of the 20th century, the world has a roughly 1910s/1920s tech level, but radios are big and cumbersome (never installed in vehicles), astronomy, rocketry and space research is generally backwards (even in the science-advancing countries) and spaceflight is non-existant (given the insufficient level of tech and knowledge, I'm not surprised).
 
Any other ideas, gents ?

Sure, one radically different from any suggestions here yet:

A "Liberal-Wank" world at peace, with no superpower polarization, and no threats from major insurgent third-countries.

I think we could have come really close to it just by having Hitler fail to take power in Germany. No Third Reich, no WWII. Maybe Mussolini rocks the boat a bit by his scheme to conquer Ethiopia--and maybe the Anglo-French leadership of the League of Nations, undistracted by concerns of a rapidly recovering Germany under a ruthless and aggressive dictator, follow through on serious sanctions by the League followed by military confrontation that Italy loses. Or vice versa, they complacently let Italy have its bit of colonial empire and chest-pounding and it all just cools down from there. In Asia of course Japan would presumably still be stirring up all kinds of mayhem, but undistracted by European tensions again the Western powers can handle Japan without recourse to the total war and massive investment in weapons development of OTL.

As for the USSR--I suppose over time everyone would become complacent about it. Under Stalin the country was in tension, in constant warlike preparation for the inevitable war against the capitalist west--but with Stalin always decapitating his military leadership before it can become too competent. If the West never attacks the Soviet Union, the USSR will never, in my opinion, attack the West. Stalin keeps meaning to but never gets around to it, and his successors will presumably value peace. With no Nazi invasion, there are no conquests in Eastern Europe.

So--under these circumstances, will there eventually nevertheless be a big war to follow WWI? Perhaps there can be, but let's look at the timelines where there isn't one--they also seem plausible unless one takes as an axiom that war is inevitable. How about major international tensions leading to arms races that however don't result in war? Those seem quite likely, but I think under those circumstances military rocketry, and even early and substantial regime backing of explicitly space-based tech like spy satellites and communications, navigation and weather satellites will come up on the agendas of the leaders of both sides.

So--as the bumper stickers say, "Visualize World Peace!" Imagine that the mutual fear between economically recovering Europe and self-constructing USSR gradually relaxes. It may never go away completely, but with no European nations arming as Hitler led the way in doing OTL, the Soviets don't need to divert so much effort to amassing arms themselves. The United States, slowly recovering from the Depression itself, does not have the world turned upside down nor any excuses for any major military ventures except against Japan, which would mostly be a Naval war, one the USN can win handily, with likely RN and French naval support, without rapidly pushing the rate of tech nor even engaging a massive building program in the shipyards. Eventually one way or another the conflict with Japan is settled. In fact we can go one better and make the POD far back enough that not only are the Nazis a disgruntled political side show in Germany, but Japan is somehow diverted from her militaristic path and the Empire is just a bunch of islands (including Taiwan) and Korea, and it never goes on the warpath to get more.

So, we don't have to imagine a world completely free of all arms and where no one could conceivably take advantage to try to become a mighty warlord. But the latter would not have actually happened yet in the world we should envision--perhaps some tried here or there but were put down by collective security under the League of Nations.

This timeline might have its Von Brauns, and Korolevs, and Goddards. What they lack is funding and publicity. No generals showed up with blank checks. There was no track record of success on the tactical scale and no long series of taxpayer-funded experiments with small rockets to lay the groundwork for more ambitious Army schemes for bigger and longer-range rockets to dovetail with the sci-fi dreams of the engineers of achieving orbit.

Without the militaries of their respective countries begging for new weapons, development of rocketry remains in the hand of individual enthusiasts.

Under those circumstances it makes sense to me that progress would be slow. Because of that, enthusiasm would be harder to sustain. Even if individual generals or admirals get excited by the prospects of a medium-range or even intercontinental rocket for weapons delivery, the political powers that be will presumably veto funds in favor of maintaining strength through tried-and-true forms of arms.

So--even if the idea of either communication or surveillance satellites might emerge from the likes of the British Interplanetary Society, with the world in this kind of long-sustained peace, existing solutions will generally seem good enough to governments, since there is no ballistic missile program to "borrow" rockets from to bridge the gap and make these applications. So they will stagnate in file drawers.
 
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