WI Stalin doesn't ignore the German pre-Barbarossa build-up on his borders?

This has probably been posted here before, but the search function went awry. So here goes.

WI Stalin doesn't ignore the German pre-Barbarossa build-up on his borders? They were extremely obvious and Stalin was in a state of denial about it because he knew that, due to his own actions, the Red Army was in bad shape and not ready yet. And yet he had intel from Britain and Sweden (even from Richard Sorge IIRC) that Germany would attack; they even gave him the exact date, June 22nd 1941.

So what if Stalin decides to mobilize the Red Army in preparation for the German invasion, reactivates the Stalin Line, withdraws to said line and disperses his air force? I guess the Germans will have to wade through 5-6 million men rather than 2.5 million, which is bound to slow them down even if the Red Army is going to be ill-equipped and badly led. The Red Air Force will see more losses due to combat action, but will also see less planes destroyed on the ground without a fight.

German losses in the early months will be higher than they were and the Wehrmacht doesn't advance as far. The question, of course, is how far the Wehrmacht advances in this scenario, when/where the Soviet rollback begins, how long it takes the Red Army to get to Berlin and what the Western Allies do in response.

Would it be safe to assume Germany still advances to a line running from Leningrad to Perekop by late 1941? If so, what's next?

Even if he realized they were going to attack, would the actions he take necessarily be beneficial? That's questionable. I can easily see him have the mobilized armies take up positions on the border, the logic dictating them be deployed back at more defensible line be damned.

Onkel Willie said:

Would it be safe to assume Germany still advances to a line running from Leningrad to Perekop by late 1941? If so, what's next?

Click to expand...

The Germans are probably worn out earlier than that ITTL, of course Stalin might then demand that the Red Army goes on the offensive, which could either end the war by Winter, or put the Germans in a more advantageous position than OTL, or something inbetween. Going with the 'safe' option, the Germans bleed out on the Stalin Line, you see a mix of local offensives but nothing as titanic as Stalingrad or Moscow. By 1943 the Soviets launch a 'Bagration' style offensive against the Germans which either ends the war a year early, or requires the Germans to be defeated by Atomic Bombs.

Well Zhukov did draw up plans for an early offensive action with the goal of surrounding German armies massing in Poland. You could have a situation where the forces are deployed en masse to the border but yet are still not expecting to be attacked.

If the Germans advance more slowly and suffer higher casualties, they might hunker down for the winter after taking Smolensk and not try to capture Moscow until the spring of 1942.

If the Red Air Force doesn't get butchered on the ground, that alone is going to be a very big deal. A lot of German aircraft were freed up for air support that won't be in TTL.

Could we see a much larger post war Soviet Union?

Best option would be for reservists call up but not yet deployed forward. So oyu have additional ~500.000 troops under arms but safe enough east so they avoid early encirclements.

With attrition Germans exerienced OTL now faster you could see frontlines stabilising around Smolensk when campaign ends for the year. whether Kiev falls or not is another question, could go either way.

starwarsfan said:

Could we see a much larger post war Soviet Union?

Click to expand...

Possible, if Stalin doesn't manage to squander what is a comparatively advantageous situation compared to OTL by launching more of the poorly prepared and therefore useless offensives that we know from OTL. I wouldn't be surprised if the Red Army reached the Weser. Reaching the Atlantic is a stretch though, considering logistical limitations.

Maybe more of the Red Army gets pocketed closer to the front. Earlier mobilization does not cure the incompetence of the Russian leadership, only experience will. While the airforce might survive more intact they still are no match for the Luftwaffe. This might put stalin in a more difficult position as he loses more of his reserves.

The master of Wanks has decided to embark on a Soviet-wank.

If Stalin pushes as many reserves as he can toward the border it could mean tougher resistance at the start but still see massive soviet casualties and German breakthrough

colleen1227 said:

Maybe more of the Red Army gets pocketed closer to the front. Earlier mobilization does not cure the incompetence of the Russian leadership, only experience will. While the airforce might survive more intact they still are no match for the Luftwaffe. This might put stalin in a more difficult position as he loses more of his reserves.

Click to expand...

The air force surviving makes the Nazi ground attacks much less successful, since the devastation of the air force freed up a lot of the Luftwaffe for ground attack.

Stalin deploying his forces too far forward might still cause problems, but the air force alone is going to be a VERY big deal.

Not really possible without a major external event, such as Britain agreeing to an armistice. Stalin had a very specific set of criteria that he believed Germany needed to fulfill before Hitler betrayed him. #1 of that was an end to the war in the west. Without a serious change like that, Stalin won't budge from his belief that appeasement and non-provocation would delay Hitler until 1942.

Jullian does have a point, In Autopsy of an Empire went presented information from the Luftwaffe he said that source could go fuck himself, and hes not a source but a disenformer, and he said Richard Sorge was a lying shit.

One possible effect of this scenario would be that the Red Air Force would actually make it into the air in large numbers, which might also mean that there would be more and higher-scoring Luftwaffe experten. Conceivably there could also be additional Russian fighter aces, and higher scoring, too, since even in a time of disadvantage, individual pilots usually manage to pull some heroics.

All this means Reds on the Rhine of course

Kovalenko said:

All this means Reds on the Rhine of course

Click to expand...

Checks and Balances. The more disastrous things are for the Nazis in the East earlier on, the more they will have to transfer to the Russian Front. The Afrika Corps could get starved for fresh troops, replacement aircraft, and supplies; the Luftwaffe withdrawn to the east (except for bomber intercept missions), U-Boat construction scaled back, tank production revved up, Italy left to fend for itself until its too late to intervene short of the Po River or even the Italian Alps, a more robust British 1944 intervention in Greece, D-Day unaffected but a Normandy Breakout much sooner, no elite SS Panzers in the Netherlands to abort Market-Garden, the "Battle of the Bulge" pitted against the Russians, the Rhineland Campaign becomes a total walkover (like the Allied invasion of Germany following the destrustion of Army Group B OTL) etc, etc, etc...butterflies everywhere.

AISI, the point the Allied Powers (all of them) reached by the time Hitler planted a new orifice in his skull showed that the Russians, frex, had pretty much reached everywhere they were going to go except Western Czechoslovakia. There is no getting around the fact that the more the Soviets threaten to occupy Germany, the more German resistance in the West will crumble. Worst comes to worst, the SS themselves will kill Hitler and Himmler and Goebbels before they let the Fatherland be wholly occupied by the Bolsheviks.

Onkel Willie said:

This has probably been posted here before, but the search function went awry. So here goes.

So what if Stalin decides to mobilize the Red Army in preparation for the German invasion, reactivates the Stalin Line, withdraws to said line and disperses his air force?

Click to expand...

OTL, BARBAROSSA began with a colossal sucker punch against Soviet forces. Most of the combat troops on the frontier were in peacetime configuration, unable to fight, and quickly destroyed. This exposed the flanks and rears of other units, and the support echelons of the frontier troops, which were also destroyed. This exposed still more unprepared or defenseless troops - a cascade of failure. When Soviet forces began to react, they had already lost a huge part of their fighting troops, and were forced to throw non-combat units and half-trained and half-equipped reserves into action; these troops were also mostly destroyed, and the cascade continued.

ATL, the Axis forces would encounter heavy resistance from the start. They would win on troop quality, but reserves and support troops would have warning to withdraw or prepare for battle.

The Axis would still win, but their casualties would be much heavier, and Soviet casualties much lower. My estimate is double and half, which would be a casualty rate of 3-to-1 favoring the Axis. But that's way less than OTL's 12-to-1.

German losses in the early months will be higher than they were and the Wehrmacht doesn't advance as far. The question, of course, is how far the Wehrmacht advances in this scenario...

Would it be safe to assume Germany still advances to a line running from Leningrad to Perekop by late 1941?

Click to expand...

No. The Axis would get to Riga, Smolensk, and Kiev, roughly, before winter set in.

1942 would be seesaw battles on that line. 1943 would be Soviet drives into Poland and the Balkans. 1944 would be Allied victory (in November/December, with US/UK forces coming from the west and south against weaker German resistance).

If the Russians had mobilised then Barbarberossa would have never been carried out. There would have been no 'eastern front' quite like our timeline at all.


What would have proceeded is Ribbentrop complaining bitterly to Molotov and and a good deal of a diplomatic/political shitstrom about how the Soviets and Nazis were meant to be friends, but Russia mobilising was tantimount to paranoia and a direct threat to the Axis.

Irrespective of the validity of the Russian Generals fears, this would have been bad politics for Stalin, since on the one hand his has lost international face vis-a-vis germany, yet on the other internally he has validated the Generals stance.

While his 'popularity' in the soviet system may increase, he will have also cut the last aspect of 'co-operation' with the Nazis.

This would in turn give cause for the Allies to press Stalin to honour their side of things. Of course, if he does so, then it is open war with Germany. Which is what Stalin above all will wish to avoid.


Hence the Soviets tell the British and Allies diplomatically to 'f*ck off' and the polish border becomes a tense stand off between powers.


Would Hitler still attack? No, while he was a gambler and all his political rhetoric was anti-communist, a 'belligerant Soviet Union' is political gold for him to mine. Even as a total dictator in Germnay, he can use the Soviet threat to command a much better position on Finland, Sweden the Balkens and even across the middle east.

Since all those nations are threatened by the Soviets, then supprisingly, Germany makes a more natural ally, while alliences may be few, perhaps only the Fins and Swedes, possibly Turkey. It really turns the tide of war to Hitlers favour since now Britain is far more isolated in Europe than even OTL and has much less hope of ever being able to break the Axis bloc.



In such a senario, a 'Japan First' policy may arrise.


Sooner or later atomic bombs enter the picture and this spells 'a doom' for the Nazi regime, but since the Soviets have never become part of the 'Allies', then it means that Europe may become a clusterf*ck in its own right.