A Macedonian Conflict in the Yugoslav Civil War

MarshalBraginsky · Jul 3, 2013

Slovenia and Macedonia didn't have a major conflict with the central government in Belgrade during the Yugoslav Civil War, except for that brief episode with regards to the Albanian separatist group operating in Macedonia.

Is it possible for Macedonia to be caught up in a conflict on a similar scale to Croatia and Bosnia? Say a bigger Albanian insurgency there or something else since Bulgaria has pretty much decided to sit this out.

Artatochor · Jul 3, 2013

It would need to happen before the other wars. Timed with the riots in Kosovo that happened in '86 IIRC.

MarshalBraginsky · Jul 3, 2013

The Albanian part, right?

Artatochor · Jul 3, 2013

yes. For Slovenia, Croatia has to fall first, and then, if the Serb leadership is really intent on a landgrab, they can try getting Slovenia. Not sure would someone intervene by then. Hungary would be panicked for sure.

MarshalBraginsky · Jul 3, 2013

Artatochor said:
yes. For Slovenia, Croatia has to fall first, and then, if the Serb leadership is really intent on a landgrab, they can try getting Slovenia. Not sure would someone intervene by then. Hungary would be panicked for sure.

Would the JNA drive to Zagreb instead of besieging Vukovar actually help the Serbs though? Also, what was the central government in Belgrade's relationship with the Bulgarian minority in southeastern Serbia?

Artatochor · Jul 3, 2013

MarshalBraginsky said:
Would the JNA drive to Zagreb instead of besieging Vukovar actually help the Serbs though? Also, what was the central government in Belgrade's relationship with the Bulgarian minority in southeastern Serbia?

They got bogged down at Vukovar unnecessarily. A strategy of letting the siege fester while advancing towards Osijek and Zagreb could've been very dangerous. Their plans involved cutting Croatia into 5 pieces with armored spearheads. I'm thinking they don't like Bulgarians all too much. But, I don't think they put any pressure on that minority during the wars.

MarshalBraginsky · Jul 3, 2013

Artatochor said:
They got bogged down at Vukovar unnecessarily. A strategy of letting the siege fester while advancing towards Osijek and Zagreb could've been very dangerous. Their plans involved cutting Croatia into 5 pieces with armored spearheads. I'm thinking they don't like Bulgarians all too much. But, I don't think they put any pressure on that minority during the wars.

So that makes conquering Croatia a lot harder than it already is.

Artatochor · Jul 3, 2013

MarshalBraginsky said:
So that makes conquering Croatia a lot harder than it already is.

No, following it would've been better for them. However, complications with the southern spearheads aimed at Dalmatia ensued- they got wrecked in narrow mountain passes in Herzegovina.

MarshalBraginsky · Jul 3, 2013

Following the road into Zagreb would have been better for them, that is what you mean, right? What about the possibility of a Macedonian-Bulgarian conflict within Macedonia? As in Macedonian nationalists against Bulgarophiles?

Artatochor · Jul 3, 2013

MarshalBraginsky said:
Following the road into Zagreb would have been better for them, that is what you mean, right? What about the possibility of a Macedonian-Bulgarian conflict within Macedonia? As in Macedonian nationalists against Bulgarophiles?

Not so clued up on MK-BG conflict possibility. Might happen, but then Greece, Romania get involved? Soon the whole West tries to stop them.

And yes, a blitz towards Zagreb would have been a big problem for us Croats.

MarshalBraginsky · Jul 3, 2013

Not to mention Franjo Tudjman would have been stripped of his authority as president of the SR of Croatia (or independent Croatia)

Artatochor · Jul 3, 2013

MarshalBraginsky said:
Not to mention Franjo Tudjman would have been stripped of his authority as president of the SR of Croatia (or independent Croatia)

He'd be dead. I'm thinking Slovenia might just surreder, if the yugoslav military came at their border. Although, everything depends on the speed of the action. If the war with Cro/Slo had been fairly quick, the West would pretend nothing ever happened.

MarshalBraginsky · Jul 3, 2013

But it still doesn't solve the issue of the Yugoslav economy declining as a result of IMF loans.

Johnrankins · Jul 3, 2013

Artatochor said:
No, following it would've been better for them. However, complications with the southern spearheads aimed at Dalmatia ensued- they got wrecked in narrow mountain passes in Herzegovina.

Let's make things really messy. The Serbs go through the Bulgarian minority and then the Bulgarian government invades Yugoslavia to protect the Bulgarian minority.

MarshalBraginsky · Jul 3, 2013

Johnrankins said:
Let's make things really messy. The Serbs go through the Bulgarian minority and then the Bulgarian government invades Yugoslavia to protect the Bulgarian minority.

There is the anti-Bulgarian sentiment in Macedonia, though you'll need a Macedonian Milosevic, Seselj or even Zhirinovsky to pull this off.

Johnrankins · Jul 4, 2013

MarshalBraginsky said:
There is the anti-Bulgarian sentiment in Macedonia, though you'll need a Macedonian Milosevic, Seselj or even Zhirinovsky to pull this off.

And if you had one?

MarshalBraginsky · Jul 4, 2013

That is what makes it hard. There weren't any IOTL.

Angel Heart · Jul 4, 2013

MarshalBraginsky said:
Is it possible for Macedonia to be caught up in a conflict on a similar scale to Croatia and Bosnia? Say a bigger Albanian insurgency there or something else since Bulgaria has pretty much decided to sit this out.

Yes it is. Just let Macedonia continue her offensive in 2001 and defeat the UÇK, then NATO jumps in to

save the Albanians from Macedonian ethnic cleansing

. Pretty much the same as in Kosovo IOTL.

MarshalBraginsky said:
Also, what was the central government in Belgrade's relationship with the Bulgarian minority in southeastern Serbia?

As long as they don't cause any problems they should be fine.

MarshalBraginsky · Jul 4, 2013

Angel Heart said:
Yes it is. Just let Macedonia continue her offensive in 2001 and defeat the UÇK, then NATO jumps in to

save the Albanians from Macedonian ethnic cleansing

. Pretty much the same as in Kosovo IOTL.

As long as they don't cause any problems they should be fine.

So this is a long way before Romania and Bulgaria joined NATO in 2004, though with the NATO intervention in Macedonia, can Bulgaria choose not to seek NATO membership by this point? Bulgaria actually helped Macedonia train its army, from what I can gather. And this UCK is different from the Kosovo UCK, right?

Also, with regards to this issue, could the Albanian insurgency against Macedonia spill over into Greece, especially with the Liberation Army of Chameria?

MUC · Jul 4, 2013

What would the Greeks do?