WI: No Paraguayan War
- Thread starter Will Kürlich Kerl
- Start date
Besides the obvious of a more stable and prosperous Brazilian Empire, the demographic effects of Paraguay NOT having 70-90% of its male population wiped out will create massive butterflies down the line ...
unprincipled peter
Donor
massive butterflies for Paraguay. the rest of the world, or even region, not so much. Might affect the Chaco war, as P now has more manpower, but that war wasn't really a game changer of much, anyway. depends on whether the war is averted because Lopez is not in the picture, or whether he just decides to continue his military buildup before launching his war. If you assume no war means no war, Paraguay remains a backwoods small country who no one took seriously, regardless of their population.
No war has huge ramifications for Brazil. The army doesn't get so powerful. Anti-slavery sentiment doesn't get rachetted up so much. Brazil doesn't spend as much on arms, but it doesn't automatically translate to spending it on economic measures. Prosperity probably remains about the same. while B was stable, long term stability (fate of the monarchy) goes up because the land owning masses aren't getting pissed off by all the abolitionist sentiment and republican values aren't spread so widely because of no war (exposure of the masses through going to new lands) and the republican minded military remains small
No war has huge ramifications for Brazil. The army doesn't get so powerful. Anti-slavery sentiment doesn't get rachetted up so much. Brazil doesn't spend as much on arms, but it doesn't automatically translate to spending it on economic measures. Prosperity probably remains about the same. while B was stable, long term stability (fate of the monarchy) goes up because the land owning masses aren't getting pissed off by all the abolitionist sentiment and republican values aren't spread so widely because of no war (exposure of the masses through going to new lands) and the republican minded military remains small
Will Kürlich Kerl
Banned
So does this butterfly away the end of slavery in Brazil, or does it only delay it by a few years?
unprincipled peter
Donor
yerba mate was big in all three regional countries -Brazil, Paraguay, Argentina before the war. I doubt the lack of a war affects ym drinking at all.
As for slavery, it's an interesting question. All major countries rid themselves of slavery by 1870, except for Brazil. The Europeans still accepted abuse of indentured servitude in the colonies, as long as it wasn't outright slavery, but ostensibly, slavery was a thing of the past. Eventually, Brazil has to shed it. They're not bringing it back into fashion world wide, and they can't hold out forever against the norm. So, at best, slavery continues for another 20, 30, or more years. Pedro's daughter Isabel (and Pedro himself) was a die hard abolitionist so the issue is still going to come to a head.
As for slavery, it's an interesting question. All major countries rid themselves of slavery by 1870, except for Brazil. The Europeans still accepted abuse of indentured servitude in the colonies, as long as it wasn't outright slavery, but ostensibly, slavery was a thing of the past. Eventually, Brazil has to shed it. They're not bringing it back into fashion world wide, and they can't hold out forever against the norm. So, at best, slavery continues for another 20, 30, or more years. Pedro's daughter Isabel (and Pedro himself) was a die hard abolitionist so the issue is still going to come to a head.
Well, it was essentially dependent on the revanchist schemes of the Lopez family, who had overseen Paraguay's militarization over the decade leading up to the war. It didn't hurt that Solano Lopez had a fascination with Napoleonic France.
On top of that, the exact circumstances of the war becoming a three-on-one smackdown were dependent on Brazilian intervention in Uruguayan politics, not to mention the very fluid status of the Argentine government.
In other words, it would not be very hard at all to butterfly the War of the Triple Alliance. Yes, there will be a war at some point between Paraguay and Brazil, but it by no means has to be on the same terms it was IOTL; if anything, it's almost more likely for factions in Argentina and Uruguay to support Paraguay.
unprincipled peter
Donor
the paraguayan war is nothing like WW1. the P war is dependent entirely on one man: F Lopez. Even assuming FL continues in power, war is not inevitable. He liked his ego stroked. stroke it, and he's less likely to be your enemy. Don't meddle in Uruguayan politics, and it doesn't happen OTL. If the Uruguayan Crisis passes without a war, there's no guarantee that another cause will pop up. Unlike WW1, where something was almost guaranteed to pop up. Uruguay was a little mess of a country where Argentina and Brazil liked to meddle. Paraguay was a little self sufficient country, but spending beyond it's means. FL was an egotistical expansionist who nobody took seriously. Things came together exactly as needed to spark a war. Nothing is inevitable, but the P war is less inevitable than usual.
Everything I've ever read about Brazil indicates that the war amped up societal pressure to end slavery. Pedro's personal plans may have been delayed, but society's willingness to entertain abolition was enhanced by the war.
Everything I've ever read about Brazil indicates that the war amped up societal pressure to end slavery. Pedro's personal plans may have been delayed, but society's willingness to entertain abolition was enhanced by the war.
Actually, no. There was no presssure coming from the society for the enacting of the Law of the Free Birth in 1871. Slavery abolitionism became a popular movement in the early 1880s.
unprincipled peter
Donor
Let's chalk it up to agree to disagree, with each of us believing we're right.
An ATL with no Paraguay war its possible, you have at least 2 POD:
1- Get rid off Edward Thornton, the UK ambassador in Argentina and main pro-war spokeman. Before the Paraguay war, Argentina and Brazil destroyed the Uruguay army (whites against reds) and led the country more into the UK sphere of influence.
2- A huge rebellion in the inner Argentina (mostly of the arg soldiers were chained to the battlefield) led by Lopez Jordan or other, better organized, would put an end to the war plans.
Until then, Paraguay was the most advanced country in Southamerica - rails, big foundries, many factories - so probably it could keep investing in this.
1- Get rid off Edward Thornton, the UK ambassador in Argentina and main pro-war spokeman. Before the Paraguay war, Argentina and Brazil destroyed the Uruguay army (whites against reds) and led the country more into the UK sphere of influence.
2- A huge rebellion in the inner Argentina (mostly of the arg soldiers were chained to the battlefield) led by Lopez Jordan or other, better organized, would put an end to the war plans.
Until then, Paraguay was the most advanced country in Southamerica - rails, big foundries, many factories - so probably it could keep investing in this.
Was Thornton that influential? Both the Argentine and Brazilian governments had interests in supporting the Reds in Uruguay, and forging an alliance of convenience. When Solano Lopez decided to military intervene in Paraguay, likely hoping for getting Urquiza's tacit support, Paraguay was put into a collision course with the Argentine-Brazilian alliance.
Exactly. The Paraguayan intervention was one of the worst ill-timed military move ever done in South America. Lopez decided to go to war in a rare moment when both Brazil and Argentina had a common policy for the region. If he had cooled down and accepted the changes in Uruguay then maybe one or two years later Brazil and Argentina would again be at each other's throat and Paraguay could again do that old game of playing one against the other.
unprincipled peter
Donor
per capita, Paraguay was the most advanced.
Overall, Brazil had more industry.
Paraguay was not modernized. It had enough to be self sufficient for many things, but lacked a lot of basics. It was easily blockaded, and is destined to lose any long war because they don't have the industry or materials to be completely self sufficient. the Lopez's actually steered the economy away from industry and into the military. Short term, you can do one or the other (industry or military). they didn't have funds for both, and went for military might.
Ultimately, though, it would required a few decades of growth, hoping for stagnation in it's neighbors, before Paraguay could think about going it alone. Joining Argentina against Brazil or joining Brazil against Argentina (most likely the first, as Brazil was shockingly deficient militarily in 1865) is the only way Paraguay could win, but alliance was not the mindset of Lopez.
Overall, Brazil had more industry.
Paraguay was not modernized. It had enough to be self sufficient for many things, but lacked a lot of basics. It was easily blockaded, and is destined to lose any long war because they don't have the industry or materials to be completely self sufficient. the Lopez's actually steered the economy away from industry and into the military. Short term, you can do one or the other (industry or military). they didn't have funds for both, and went for military might.
Ultimately, though, it would required a few decades of growth, hoping for stagnation in it's neighbors, before Paraguay could think about going it alone. Joining Argentina against Brazil or joining Brazil against Argentina (most likely the first, as Brazil was shockingly deficient militarily in 1865) is the only way Paraguay could win, but alliance was not the mindset of Lopez.
The second option would be more realistic. Paraguay was getting good revenues with brazilian trade along the shared rivers.
unprincipled peter
Donor
I was thinking militarily, but upon further reflection, either alliance would lead to likely victory. Although Brazil had a lousy land army, it did have a superior navy. Argentina had a tiny navy, but if it combined with the Paraguayan navy might hold Brazil out of the rivers. combining Argentine land forces with Paraguay's (or simply staying out of the fray) leads to Brazilian defeat on land.
Politically, yeah, Brazil is the most likely of the two partners.
Politically, yeah, Brazil is the most likely of the two partners.
unprincipled peter
Donor
not sure I see imperialism in the equation. It was more of a neighborly squabble, and while there's always going to be squabbles, it's not inevitable that it boils over into full blown war. simply remove Lopez from the equation, and it's highly unlikely that Paraguay is involved in a war for quite some time. Paraguay was isolationalist prior to the two Lopez regimes, and, IMO, would have likely stayed in a 'you don't bother me, I won't bother you' mode. Neither Argentina or Brazil had any reason to bother Paraguay until Lopez gave them a reason.
"Imperialism" is a very broad concept, and requires clarifications.
If you meen British imperialism, that is, the interpretation according to which the Paraguayan war was caused, ultimately, because the main industrial world power, the UK, couldn't allow the existance in South America of a country that seeked to have its own industry and didn't imported British manufactured goods, you must know thisinterpretation has been seriously questioned by serious historians, like Brazilian Doratioto. It implies that Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay are mere brazilian puppets, which wasn't the case: in fact, relations between Brazil and Paraguay weren't going well back then. It also implies that Paraguay was on the path of becoming and industrial powerhouse, which is also debatable (obviuously, it was far better before the war than afterwards, but how better and how sustainable its model was is debetable).
If you mean Argentine or Brazil imperialism, as a synonim of expansionism, well, both countries tendency to expand, if true (also debatable) might have seeked other targets.
If you mean imperialism as an indefined force, not linked to any specific country, well, yes, it might have causes A war, but it's hard to prouve the link between that war and such undefined concept. And that war may be in Chile, Bolivia or Perú, not necessarly in Paraguay...