WI: All slave states secede

Just like it says on the tin. What would have happened if all 13 slave states seceded? Would the Civil War have become a crusade against slavery from the outset? Would there have been more calls to negotiate? If it did become a crusade against slavery, would there be some type of "international brigade" of idealistic Europeans joining in? Would the war last longer? Would Reconstruction be harsher? Would the Confederacy succeed in gaining independence? Would the US Military stage some kind of a coup in Maryland to stop it from succeeding in seceding?

Lost the game said:

Just like it says on the tin. What would have happened if all 13 slave states seceded? Would the Civil War have become a crusade against slavery from the outset? Would there have been more calls to negotiate? If it did become a crusade against slavery, would there be some type of "international brigade" of idealistic Europeans joining in? Would the war last longer? Would Reconstruction be harsher? Would the Confederacy succeed in gaining independence? Would the US Military stage some kind of a coup in Maryland to stop it from succeeding in seceding?

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Any of these could happen, I suppose; though, TBH, I think it's more likely that there would be more of a "crusade" against slavery and a longer lasting, and perhaps even bloodier, conflict than anything else; and there might be more Europeans really willing to fight for America, too.

Lost the game said:

Just like it says on the tin. What would have happened if all 13 slave states seceded? Would the Civil War have become a crusade against slavery from the outset? Would there have been more calls to negotiate? If it did become a crusade against slavery, would there be some type of "international brigade" of idealistic Europeans joining in? Would the war last longer? Would Reconstruction be harsher? Would the Confederacy succeed in gaining independence? Would the US Military stage some kind of a coup in Maryland to stop it from succeeding in seceding?

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If all 13 slave states secedes, it's an American-screw. Washington, DC is now an enclave of the USA inside the larger CSA.

Will Kürlich Kerl said:

If all 13 slave states secedes, it's an American-screw. Washington, DC is now an enclave of the USA inside the larger CSA.

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This assumes that Maryland isn't immediately flooded with federal troops exactly to prevent Washington from being cut off.

If Lincoln were prevented from assuming the Presidency in Washington because of Maryland secession, the capital would likely move to either Philadelphia or New York.

Maryland would be occupied very quickly. Missouri would remain a war unto itself just with more pro-slavery forces than OTL. Kentucky would be a big help to the Confederacy out west if the majority of the state supported secession and fought for the Confederacy as it would give the south around 60 extra regiments - I believe Lincoln expressed the sentiment that if he lost Kentucky to the South he'd have lost the war.

Captain Jack said:

This assumes that Maryland isn't immediately flooded with federal troops exactly to prevent Washington from being cut off.

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Where are these federal troops going to come from?

There would be no federal troops. DC is clearly lost. The district is pro-confederate anyway; so whatever elements of the federal govt. want to stay in the union wish to leave, are given free passage thru CSA territory, and head north to Philadelphia.
With this scenario in mind, will Lincoln even bother to attack the CSA, or will he realise that it is a hopeless cause, and just accept that there are now two Americas, and never mind all the shrieks of agony coming from the abolitionists?

tallthinkev said:

Where are these federal troops going to come from?

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oudi14 said:

With this scenario in mind, will Lincoln even bother to attack the CSA, or will he realise that it is a hopeless cause, and just accept that there are now two Americas, and never mind all the shrieks of agony coming from the abolitionists?

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Wasn't the CSA who attacked first?

Yes, but in this scenario, you might well butterfly away what happened at Ft. Sumter, and Lincoln just goes ahead and evacuates the forts. Even if the hotheads in Charleston shoot anyway, Lincoln might not respond as he did in OTL. For one thing, he is busy trying to set up a new capital in Philly or wherever. And if it is Philly, then enemy territory is not very far away. Although, I admit it is hard to imagine a confederate Delaware.

jotabe1789 said:

Wasn't the CSA who attacked first?

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I find it improbable that Lincoln would just throw in the towel. Maryland and Delaware add little in terms of manpower. Kentucky is more significant. But there would be significant numbers of Unionist sympathizers in Missouri, Maryland and Kentucky.

This notion that Fort Sumter won't happen ignores a more significant issue - a Confederate attack on the capitol! Its too tempting not to take Washington but even if there are only a handful of soldiers there: who would want to be the officer that surrendered Washington without a fight?

In some ways not a lot changes - the South must still win a quick victory because even with the remaining slave states the North has a huge advantage in manpower and production. If Lincoln fights, and he will, then the longer the war goes on the more likely is a Union victory again

Delaware might present a problem, considering that the governor seemed to certainly represent what most of the state believed, that it was the "first to commit to the union, and will be the last toleave it."

plus, didn't Delaware have the lowest slave to free rati9o?

I've heard tell that if Maryland had left, Delaware would have been far more likely to leave. The most I can find to concretely justify this is a remark the governor made, stating one of the reasons that Secession was bad for Delaware was that Delaware would not share a land border with the rest of the Confederacy and would be surrounded by the Union. I've heard that Delaware saw itself as something of a sister state to Maryland, but I can find nothing concrete about that.

Depends on when then border states secede. It is highly unlikely that they'd secede before Fort Sumter and the Union call to arms. Arkansas, Tennesee and North Carolina didn't secede until May.

Northern governors had already mobilized militias even before Fort Sumter, so it would be possible to mobilize some troops to make safe the Capital if Maryland attempted secession.

Secession attempts in Kentucky and Missouri mean full blown war starts early.

At any rate, all is not lost for the Union. Even if all the slave states secede, it would likely be possible to quickly put down the insurrection in Maryland and Delaware. It's a long war though, and it will be an anti-slavery crusade pretty immediately, now that every slave state has turned traitor, and there's no more need to play nice about the issue.

TheKnightIrish said:

I find it improbable that Lincoln would just throw in the towel. Maryland and Delaware add little in terms of manpower. Kentucky is more significant. But there would be significant numbers of Unionist sympathizers in Missouri, Maryland and Kentucky.

This notion that Fort Sumter won't happen ignores a more significant issue - a Confederate attack on the capitol! Its too tempting not to take Washington but even if there are only a handful of soldiers there: who would want to be the officer that surrendered Washington without a fight?

In some ways not a lot changes - the South must still win a quick victory because even with the remaining slave states the North has a huge advantage in manpower and production. If Lincoln fights, and he will, then the longer the war goes on the more likely is a Union victory again

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Not taking DC is one thing I haven't understood. Wasn't there a good chance the CSA could have done right it after Manassas/Bull Run? Or at least a day or so later?

katchen said:

If Lincoln were prevented from assuming the Presidency in Washington because of Maryland secession, the capital would likely move to either Philadelphia or New York.

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Philadelphia more likely. New York was very ambivalent, at best, in its support for the war effort.

Well, I think there are a few things to consider.

1. Maryland, Missouri, parts of Tennessee, parts of Georgia, and Kentucky will have strong Union sympathies. Delaware is not going anywhere in anything short of a major ASB scenario as the DuPont family, who own one of if not the largest business in the state, are not about to leave the Union and are more likely to see the powder mill there burned to the ground before flying the stars and bars.

2. Delmarva peninsula will be a strategic target for the Union since whoever controls it can have serious impacts on shipping into Philadelphia

3. The Baltimore and Ohio Railroad running through the northernmost tip of Virginia and much of Maryland is a strategic railway for the Union and one of its major east-west connectors. Besides, Wheeling VA made it quite clear they had no interest in staying as part of Virginia upon secession, and the finger of land will be very hard to defend.

4. Oklahoma/Indian Territory will likely sympathize with the Confederacy and leave with it

5. New Mexico Territory will be up for grabs on the negotiating table, and if the Confederacy is looking for most strategic borders and would be willing to give things up it might as well try to negotiate for something in return

6. Lincoln will have a harder time going to war against a Confederacy that runs over 14 (or 15 if Delaware is among the mix of) states than against 11, especially when DC itself is pro-Southern.

7. Would Little Egypt/Southern Illinois or Southern Indiana have stronger pro-Confederacy movements in this scenario? Governor Morton of Indiana was so afraid of what he thought was a pro-CSA majority in the southern part of Indiana as to greatly overstep his powers (apparently he had eyes on taking power over parts of Kentucky as well!) and Little Egypt had an active secessionist movement for a short period of time. Having the southern third of Illinois and Indiana as a new Confederate state could prove very interesting...

8. Two possible scenarios:

8a. Overall map is likely to see a few shifts but I think that the CSA will negotiate for the whole of New Mexico, the whole of Oklahoma/Indian Territory, lose Missouri north of the river of the same name, lose Wheeling Virginia, and probably lose the Delmarva peninsula. St Louis and perhaps Kansas City will be made free cities or come into a special arrangement. Peaceful secession is made by 1862 and relations normalize surprisingly quickly, the CSA emerges as a sort of Brazil into the 20th century with diversification of the economy in response to its near collapse after the boll weevil outbreak in the 1890s-1900s.

8b. If a war breaks out, Missouri may become what Tennessee was in 1862 and Kentucky will become a more significant battleground. Maryland will be a messy place that replaces Virginia as the main sight for the Eastern Front, look for a Confederate offensive to try to cut the nation in half and perhaps Pittsburgh replaces Gettysburg as a site for an attempted offensive. Baltimore and Louisville will increase Confederate industrial capacity, and the war could last into 1866 or 1867 depending on leadership changes (maybe a general or two who was on the fence and barely joined the Union goes for the Confederacy instead and makes the difference? Or maybe Cleburne lives long enough to become a major general in his own command?). There is also a stronger chance that France and perhaps the UK recognizes the Confederacy, in which case they can bring the US to the table for negotiations.

But in this TL, DC becomes redundant, because it is surrounded by enemy territory, and in any case, its native population is largely pro- confederate. [The OTL mayor of DC refused to take an oath of allegiance to the union] So in effect, the city falls without anyone having to lift a finger, and the capitol has to go somewhere else.
As for it being captured after OTL Bull Run, that is another story.

tallthinkev said:

Not taking DC is one thing I haven't understood. Wasn't there a good chance the CSA could have done right it after Manassas/Bull Run? Or at least a day or so later?

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tallthinkev said:

Where are these federal troops going to come from?

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Some would come from pro federal counties of western Maryland. Even if seceeding, Missouri, Maryland, Delaware and Kentucky were going to have substantial minorities of federal sympathizers. In the cases of Missouri and Maryland, local unionists would probably outnumber local confederates by slim margins.

oudi14 said:

There would be no federal troops. DC is clearly lost. The district is pro-confederate anyway...

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Not so fast.... Even if Maryland leaves, western Maryland is solidly pro union and mobilized militia regiments could be sent to bolster Washington DC defenses. Also, most of the inhabitants of DC itself are pro union and their militias could also supplement the federal garrisson. Then factor in that the CSA is totally unprepared to storm a fortified city.

My guess is that any enthusiastic but unprepared CSA rush into the Capital would quickly turn into a disaster for the CSA - not because of union skill, but simply because neither the CSA nor the USA had the technology to overwelm determined defenders fighting from fortifications. The only viable tactic against such defenders was human wave assault. And most, if not all, human wave assualts were unsuccessful and led to the attackers suffering enormous casualties.

TheKnightIrish said:

In some ways not a lot changes - the South must still win a quick victory because even with the remaining slave states the North has a huge advantage in manpower and production. If Lincoln fights, and he will, then the longer the war goes on the more likely is a Union victory again

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I agree. Unless the Confederacy could manage an early military / political knockout blow, the Union was destined to win any war that "went" industrial.

Jello_Biafra said:

It's a long war though, and it will be an anti-slavery crusade pretty immediately, now that every slave state has turned traitor, and there's no more need to play nice about the issue.

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There is still a reason: An early, out right emancipation crusade would alienate politically pro union individuals in Maryland, Kentucky and Missouri. Any early federal military campaign into these states would rely heavily on the support of pro union, but slavery ambivalant locals. Then factor in the negative impact that a declared emancipation crusade would have in the southeren areas of Indiana and Illinois and even amongst a certain number of culturally northeren conscripts from New York, Maine, Wisconsin etc.

A) I agree with M79 on a fully victorious CSA's negotiations for territory - Missouri above the Missouri River was settled by northerners, while below was 'Little Dixie', a Southron-settled area one can see clearly on a map of American English dialects and existing to take up all the state south of the river. Also, St. Louis by the time of the Civil War was pretty damn pro-Southron, and I can provide a link saying as such. It will likely stay CSA while Kansas City is made Union.

B) Further, all slave states seceding with this presumably-victorious CSA would embolden the New Mexico and Indian Territories into throwing their lot entirely with the Southrons, as well as perhaps slightly more men to secure the territory when they send in a force to take it. The Anglos in them were mostly from the South anyways.

C) I also agree Wheeling will go to the Union as perhaps part of Pennsylvania. It really wasn't settled by Virginians (both West and Regular type).

D) However, as a native Delawarean, I assure you that it was a northern state that happened to somehow still have slavery. Its slave-to-free ratio was heavily in favor of free, it was tied to Philadelphia by economy, culture, and ethnicity, (most of its Anglo population having moved in from Quaker Pennsylvania during colonial times), and most of the population lived up north by Philadelphia. It will stay Union.

To wit:
-Missouri south of the MO River (with St. Louis) goes to the Southland, above it (with Kansas City) goes to the USA.
-Wheeling will become a Union city.
-All of Indian and New Mexico Territory will be claimed by the CSA.
-Delaware will stay pro-Union.

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...of course, this presumes the CSA is really, really lucky and victorious early. But all slave states seceding will embolden the Southrons to take all American lands they've traditionally settled in, including the midwestern states/territories (MO and Indian Territory) and the Southwest (all New Mexico Territory). Having New Mexico and Indian Territory will mean the 37th parallel is most of their border, which is very close to the traditional 36'30''. It will also mean the Missouri and Ohio River as natural borders till the also-traditional Mason-Dixon line.

As a final note, the ever-reliable Wikipedia claims the Confederacy wished to make Washington DC their capital and to secure Maryland's support for the Confederates. Make of that what you will.