No Atomic Bombs For Japan

Let us say something happens to seriously delay the Manhatten Project. Enough so that Anerican Military forces are forced to commit to Operation Downfall.

How would the campaign have gone?

Given Japanese awareness of American plans to invade the South of Command they had reinforced the region which was noted by American Intelligence at a ratio of 1:1. Despite this MacArthur was of course willing to go along with the invasion, but there was opposition to the original plan where targets would have shifted elsewhere in Japan. Would the changes have happened or would they have gone through with it?

Could they win? Considering the advantages of number and surprise were not in American favor it is likely that they could have been thrust back into the sea. Though, I think that at least some parts of the civilian population would not have resisted given the high levels of war weariness at this stage of the war.

Still, it is likely the Invasion would have literally torn Japan apart. Would Post-War Japan look different? I think that in certain respects it would. I can certainly see the Japanese Imperials killing political prisoners that would have on OTL been key figures in the Post War Government.

Could they win? In any way, shape or form. No the Japanese could not defend their country.

The massed kamikaze's would be a pritty much one shot weapon and the USN and RN has now got lots of experience with dealing with Kamikaze waves. Would their be casualties? yes, definately, would the invasion fleet be destroyed? Not a chance.

You've then got the USN and USAF bombing the absolute bejasus out of the country for weeks on end before the troops go ashore. You've then got bombardment by battleships and cruisers whilst anything resembling a boat would be targetted by air strikes.

Then the troops go ashore, again supported by massive airpower against outdated, untrained pilots who are barely worth the name.

And whilst the IJA had numbers, its big units would be out gunned by smaller US troops. When most men would have at most, a few grenades and a bolt action rifle. Whilst the civilian militia might have a rifle or two and bamboo spears.

Against that you've got very well trained and well armed troops with lots of machine guns, SMGs, LMGs, tommy guns and artillery on tap. Not to mention tanks that the IJA has next to no counter to and again that wonderful force multiplier. Artillery and Airpower.

Allied casualties would not be as high as people think, but Japanese casualties would be absolutely horrific.

Without the atomic bombs the complication will not be an invasion, but the war simply being extended a couple of months at most. It's an interesting intellectual exercise, but I don't think it would realistically happen.

Henriksson said:

Without the atomic bombs the complication will not be an invasion, but the war simply being extended a couple of months at most. It's an interesting intellectual exercise, but I don't think it would realistically happen.

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Then do you think the US would have just blockaded Japan and more or less quarantined it while dealing with the IJA still on the mainland?

It was working so very well, so blockade and massive bombardment by carrier planes, bombers and battleship/cruisers.

I think the Japanese leadership's major concern was communization in the event of a Soviet invasion. Once the USSR declared war on Japan a Japanese surrender was inevitable, by late 1945 at the outside.

Granted.

Though it was MacArthur who was at the helm of things and we know how far he is willing to go.

King of Malta said:

Let us say something happens to seriously delay the Manhatten Project. Enough so that Anerican Military forces are forced to commit to Operation Downfall.

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Delay of the Bomb does not by necessity lead to Downfall being carried out.

Japan was on the brink of catastrophe, Bomb or no. And there was no burning urgency to end the war, so giving bombing & blockade a bit longer to work would have been the probable response.

So, how long is the Bomb delayed? Unless it's more than 6mo, the change is small.

That presumes, of course, Japan doesn't decide to surrender upon the Sov DoW, which some (in particular in Japan) believe was the more important factor.

The Soviet entry into the war and the continued blockade and bombardment of Japan would end the war by Christmas without the need for invasion.

Hmmm what would have happened if the Soviets hadn't for whatever reason declared war on Japan? Or do they to much to gain by doing so?

Operation Downfall would have been reconsidered. The most likely event would be a naval blockade backed by air bombardment. The Soviets might have invaded Japanese held China at some point during this, but wouldn't have launched an invasion on their own until the U.S. did.

End result, massive Japanese civilian casualties.

Alex1guy said:

Hmmm what would have happened if the Soviets hadn't for whatever reason declared war on Japan? Or do they to much to gain by doing so?

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Yeah, it was easy pickings in Manchuria, just for a start.

There's a chance (IDK how good a one) for a Red Japan after the likely rebellion. Also a pretty good chance for a divided Japan (per Germany) if she hangs on very long.

Because I have a paper due in the afternoon and I'm totally not gonna sleep tonight..

LOL I've written a paper on this topic for my 12th grade world history class. Hated the teacher, but had a fun time doing it. Anyway...

Short answer: OTL Battle of Okinawa is called the Typhoon of Steel. [1] Kyushu is going to be a true Hellstorm. I mean, they've made so many Purple Hearts for the expected numbered of wounded that they only emptied the stockpile a couple of years ago!

Long answer #1:

Assuming MacArthur went ahead with the invasion, Olympic would happen on November 1, which could present a logistical problem - Typhoon Louise struck Okinawa in October 1945, causing quite a lot of damage to US troops garrisoned there. That was when the war's over. Now imagine a high-concentration of US military force jam-packed on the island when Louise hits. [2]

Of course, God - oops, I mean, er, Dugout Doug - was not going to be inconvenienced by a pesky bitch like Louise, so the invasion plan continues, though he'll have a to replace all the damaged/lost goodies. Assume a two- to three-week delay there. Come X-Day, first wave of Jarheads hit the beaches. Because, as noted, simple geography limited possible American beaches to a few locations, deception ops on Shikoku is unlikely to draw off significant amounts of Japanese troops, leaving the bulk of them in southern Kyushu.

The Japanese commander on the island have three options: A) open fire as soon as the first Higgins boat is in range a la Tarawa; B) hold fire until enough men are on the beach, then unleash hell a la Iwo Jima; C) lure the Americans inland and let them bust their heads trying to crack a well-established defensive line a la Okinawa. Options A and B, which I think would be adopted, guaranteed a bloodbath on the first, even second, day - I think you can expect at least 50% casualty rates, if not near-decimation, for the first-wave divisions. Floating reserve will have to go in no later than H+24. And that's assuming they could make it onto dry land - all sorts of tokkokai units that would put modern suicide bombers to shame would be waiting to have a piece of the invasion fleet. Here, Kamikaze pilot could use the mountains of Kyushu for cover to fly as close to the fleet before going in for the kill, and negate the Allied air power and radar-guided AA (which weren't that reliable even in optimal conditions. [3]

Given all that, the Americans would still be able to secure a beachhead on Kyushu, and slowly - bloodily - push the Japanese back. If the IJA behaved like OTL, they'll probably spend countless under-equipped men (even badly-armed militia) on human wave attacks on American lines like the PVA did in Korea. At this point, if you're lucky, someone will launch a coup and sue for peace. If not, then it's time for Coronet.

Long answer #2: OTOH, if the invasion was scrapped and the blockade and bombardment continued, you could very well have a genocide on your hands. By 1945 American forces were mining all Japanese sea lands, even in the Inland Sea. On land, all things that moved on wheels, as well as basic transportation hubs (bridges, rail yards, ports, and the like) were strafed, bombed, and otherwise destroyed by warplanes. Also, LeMay's firebombing campaign has left Japan with literally no intact urban center - one of the challenge in selecting targets for Little Boy and Fat Man was that there were so few Japanese cities that were relatively undamaged by XX Air Force that could fully demonstrate the effects of the A-bombs. If the war continued, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Kokura, and Niigata would eventually get a visist from B-san, and... well, Grave of the Fireflies.

Essentially, both Blockade/Bombardment and Invasion would lead to HUGE amounts of Japanese deaths. Post-war recovery, if it ever happens, will take a hell lot longer than OTL. Also, US will get some really, really bad PR when the war is over - "those slant-eyed Yellow bastards hit Pearl Harbor first" can only go so far. I can see a lot of people freaking out over the extent of damage done to Japan.

[1] I've been to the Okinawa Prefectural Peace Memorial Museum two years ago. It's one of those places where you'll get physically uncomfortable when looking at the exhibits until you go outside for fresh air.
[2] I tried going out in the middle of a typhoon when one of those things hit Okinawa. It ain't fun (okay, it actually is, but you get the point).
[3] The picket line off Okinawa worked reasonably well IOTL because Japanese planes have to fly over open seas before they can approach their targets, giving enough time for Allied units to react.

Marc A

Stalin said he would not attack Japan until after the Germans were defeated. So even if the atomic bombs had not been dropped the Soviets would've attacked Japan.

Remember the Russians didn't just attack Manchuria. They also attacked Southern Sakhalin, which was part of the Japanese home islands. Without the atomic bombs the Soviets would've simply crossed over from Sakhalin to Hokkaido and forced Japan to sue for peace long before any American operation had been undertaken.

American plans to invade Japan were scheduled for October 1945. The Soviets would've reached Tokyo long before then. The real purpose of the atomic bombings were to intimidate the Soviets more than to bring Japanese to their knees.

Assuming no invasion, there would have been massive, massive starvation by the spring of '46. As in 10s of millions dead. Outside of farming areas, thered be essentially no one under 5 or over 60 left alive.

1945 was a horrible harvest, japan could hardly feed itself at the best of times, and infrastructure was massively targeted, so what little food there was wouldnt reach the cities.

I don't understand why so many people think blockade = famine = surrender. The first part (blockade = famine) I agree with. It does not follow though that famine = surrender.

There were plenty of famines in WWII, and none of them caused any of the powers to surrender. Instead, all powers affected by them made sure that the food available go to the military, the political elite, and essential war industries. Everyone else could starve.

I see no reason to believe mass starvation of the very old and very young would cause the Japanese militarists to surrender. As the Allies island hopped their way across the Pacific, plenty of Japanese installations ended up starving to death. None of them sent word that they would surrender peacefully as long as food was sent.

The Japanese leaders had very unrealistic expectations as to the minimum concessions they could extract from the Allies. They thought they could cause enough high casualties to the Allies that eventually the Allies would give in.

Neither famine nor the Soviet invasion of Manchuria changes that calculation.

The only thing that did change that calculation was the atomic bomb. It showed the US could annihilate Japan with almost no cost to itself which completely invalidated the premise of Japan continuing to fight. That is what prompted Emperor Hirohito to decisively intervene in favor of surrender. Even then, there was sufficient enough opposition that a coup was attempted to change the policy.

Although the US Navy continued to promote the idea of a blockade, it was not supported by the Army or the civilian leadership of the United States. Downfall was going to happen even if the location of the initial invasion was changed from Kyushu to somewhere else.

Could lead to a whole number of additional War Crimes.

Downfall wouldn't have happened. Japan was already on the verge of surrender due to the American siege, the Soviets were the icing on the cake.

The real reason for the dropping of the atomic bombs was to show those back in the US that there was a point in spending billions developing them and to scare the Soviets away from starting WW3 right away.
Also it was the only chance the US military would get to test them on live targets. With peace being imminent they had a short window of opportunity.

Blackfox5 said:

I don't understand why so many people think blockade = famine = surrender. The first part (blockade = famine) I agree with. It does not follow though that famine = surrender.

There were plenty of famines in WWII, and none of them caused any of the powers to surrender. Instead, all powers affected by them made sure that the food available go to the military, the political elite, and essential war industries. Everyone else could starve.

I see no reason to believe mass starvation of the very old and very young would cause the Japanese militarists to surrender. As the Allies island hopped their way across the Pacific, plenty of Japanese installations ended up starving to death. None of them sent word that they would surrender peacefully as long as food was sent.

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That is the issue. Like with in modern day China and pre-revolutionary Russia (Due to a massacre near the Czar where he then was made to go to a ball rather than visit the hospital like he wanted) the common people would blame things on the middle management sort and thou that if only the head of state knew what was going on all would be alright. It would remove the benefit of the doubt if the military, who had already been marauding through China against the wishes of the Japanese Diet and Imperial Family members, could do their massacres against the Japanese population as well. There was also suggestions that the atomic bombings were a relief as it gave an excuse to surrender rather than have a popular revolution.

Tyr said:

Downfall wouldn't have happened. Japan was already on the verge of surrender due to the American siege, the Soviets were the icing on the cake.

The real reason for the dropping of the atomic bombs was to show those back in the US that there was a point in spending billions developing them and to scare the Soviets away from starting WW3 right away.
Also it was the only chance the US military would get to test them on live targets. With peace being imminent they had a short window of opportunity.

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And who in the US both knew about them and had to be impressed?