WI: No Singaporean split, Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew of Malaysia in 1969

Many would argue that the People's Action Party's participation in the 1964 general election in mainland Malaysia was a major reason behind Singapore's expulsion from Malaysia, given fear that the Chinese population in Singapore would neutralize the influence of Malays, and that Lee Kuan-yew may well have become Prime Minister some time later.

In 1969 in OTL, the opposition parties jointly won 51% of the popular vote, but thanks to gerrymandering like in 2013 and a more divided opposition, the Alliance Party (then-name of Barisan Nasional) narrowly won the election. However, what if Singapore did not leave the union?

The Alliance Party did not even seriously have a chance in Singapore, but in OTL, the Democratic Action Party (a continuation of the People's Action Party after Singaporean independence in OTL), along with Gerakan (at the time an opposition party) did quite well in 1969. It was highly likely that the PAP would win every seat contested in Singapore, where the Alliance Party had virtually zero presence, and what would happen next would likely be a hung parliament, even though the Alliance Party would have a plurality of seats.

Okay now, let's say the opposition alliance was more united and won in 1969. Lee Kuan Yew became Prime Minister of Singapore instead. Would we get a radically different Malaysia? Would it become a giant version of Singapore, or would Lee simply be forced to resign as whoever won in 1969 would likely spark off race riots?

It's not going to be a giant version of Singapore. Singapore is what it is because it's one of the most important commercial ports in Asia. This was true before Lee and will be true after him.

Also because Singapore was so small Lee was able to play SimCity and micromanage (for better sometimes, at others definitely for worse).

As PM of Malaysia Lee will hopefully be able to live up to his early promise. His vision of a united multiracial Malaysia was genuinely a good idea. I suspect much will be up to who he.surrounds himself with. Lee himself is far too arrogant and abrasive to play nice with everyone he'll need to schmooze.

Flocc beat me to it. Malaysia still has real problems today with the idea of Malay supremacy, which was part of the problem Singapore had, and while the country has come far, I don't think you'd see it be like Singapore as a whole. The united nation would have both economic advantages and disadvantages.

Would Singapore still be like it is in OTL? Or would being a part of Malaysia change it drastically, for better or worse?

thekingsguard said:

Would Singapore still be like it is in OTL? Or would being a part of Malaysia change it drastically, for better or worse?

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Singapore would still be the financial capital. It will be New York to Kuala Lumpur's Washington.

I suspect you'd see it be somewhat freer and more liberal given that Lee only really took a turn towards outright autocracy when he had Singapore to himself (arguably only really gaining sole control in the 1980s). In a Singapore which is a constituent state of and the financial capital of Malaysia there will be other credible political interests like David Marshall's Workers party and the Chinese educated Chinese groups which iotl Lee crushed in the 70s (labelling them cimmunists) in favour of his English speaking Chinese elites.

Of course this is a best case scenario. In other options the Federation falls apart either peacefully or in a bloody mess. I suspect if the Federation can hold together into the late 60s it will stay together given that it will be extremely interesting to the US as a bulwark against COMMUNISM

Thoughts on development.

I suspect you're going to see much less development in the Klang Valley, downriver from KL. IOTL with the loss of Singapore this became the main industrial region (along with Johor Bahru) of Malaysia. ITTL with free flow of goods and so forth to Singapore the Malayan railway link is going to retain importance. Tin, rubber and other raw materials are going to flow to Singaporean industries in even greater numbers. The possible expansion of the Singaporean urban area to include Johor Bahru also means greater opportunities for development.

A PM LKY would be in a far more vulnerable position in 1969, considering that racial tensions probably would not have simmered (I don't think quite that many in Peninsular Malaysia shared the 'Malaysian Malaysia' vision that he had, correct me if I'm wrong), and a repeat of the 1969 race riots would bring into question whether he could even stay in power come the next General Election, lest he takes a more authoritarian stance.

Anyhow, a Singapore-centred economy in Malaysia would probably not come off well for any place not called Singapore or Johor Bahru. Johor becoming like some sort of an extension of Singapore would be interesting. Perhaps less land reclamation on Singapore's part, with a hinterland supporting its growth?

A very interesting what if. Considering that Malaysia has done fairly well for itself I don't see why under LKY it couldn't reach South Korean levels of development or higher. Singapore proper would be even richer, and with the Sarawak oil the country should do very very well for itself.

Provided LKY survives, that there are enough co-opted Malays on top of the ~45% Chinese for him to survive. One wonders how Muslims would have reacted to all this social engineering. I doubt you'd have any kind of bumiputra ideology, and obviously Islam would be abandoned as the state religion considering it's practiced by a minority. I see Malaysia become a republic, and the even flag of course must change. In short everything changes.

...Until Iranian Revolution fucked things up. Pre-1979 Malays was quite liberal you know...

Aside from being the financial center, Singapore will remain as the cultural center of Malay culture, especially in the film industry.