The Great Civilisation Is Just Around The Corner

Well, I should give this time line thing another go. I promise I’ve done my reading in advance this time. The "Great Civilisation" is what the Shah termed his overall goal for Iran, we shall see what shall really become of it...

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The Great Civilisation Is Just Around The Corner

Asadollah Alam, The Shah and I: the Confidential Diary of Iran's Royal Court (1991, Taurus and Co., London) [1]

In April of 1974 I was informed by HIM [His Imperial Majesty, the Shah]’s personal physician, Dr. [Abdulkarim] Ayadi, who took me aside when I had flown to Kish Island for the day, and informed me that we must send for the French hematologist, Dr. Jean Bernard. I asked him why, but he would not tell me anything, only that we must send for him immediately. I was in a state of shock for the rest of the day and in a dreadful state, wondering what sort of disease can show up so suddenly. On the plane I could think of nothing but what would happen to the country if it were shorn of its leader… had the Shah not been on board I truly believe I would have preferred the plane to crash; at least in that way I would have been spared such painful thoughts.

On the next day, April the 10th, I had an audience with HIM and asked after his health, and told him I had had Dr. Bernard’s office called by my doctor, Abbas Safavian[2] called only to find he was away for the whole week. HIM told me that there had been some matters with his spleen; it had become swollen and he was keen to establish that there has been no change with his circulation, which was a great relief to me. The next week Dr. Bernard and an associate, Dr. Georges Flandrin, flew to Mehrabad and was greeted by him. They then met me for lunch and I told them, to their surprise, that I wanted them to see HIM. At the time, I was not privy to the nature of the Shah’s illness, but immediately afterwards it was apparent that something was amiss. Dr. [Abdulkarim] Ayadi, [the Shah’s physician] seemed guarded and reticent, although I was not the one who made light of this at first. Rather, it was Princess Ashraf.

As HIM’s closest confidante and twin sister, Princess Ashraf, upon arriving back in the country from an overseas trip in early May, seemed to immediately tell that something was wrong in the court. She asked me not soon afterwards about HIM’s schedule, if anything unusual or any aberrances had taken place. I was forthright with her and mentioned Dr. Bernard’s visit, amongst a few other events which I now assume to be inconsequential. She immediately went to see Dr. Ayadi and confronted him in regards to what had transpired during Dr. Bernard’s visit. Later I learnt that Dr. Ayadi, had all but refused to tell Princess Ashraf about HIM’s state, but eventually h relented and was told the Shah had been diagnosed with Waldenström's lymphoma, a cancer.

Immediately she went into a rage, telling us afterwards that Dr. Ayadi had planned to hide this from not only the court but HIM himself! She went and called over Dr. Bernard’s associate immediately, who professed ignorance of Ayadi’s duplicity and said that he never advised such deception. Dr. Bernard was called back in and on- May the twentieth, I think it was, HIM was informed of his condition. I too was informed of at this time. He took it rather stoically, but was profoundly disappointed with Dr. Ayadi, who had been a very close companion of his for many years; indeed, I would say he was overtly angry with him, a very rare occurrence. There was no issue of his dismissal.

As I mentioned, Dr. Ayadi had been a close associate of HIM for several years, and had become very wealthy, owning many companies including the mining firms of Sonbol and Shilit. He was special inspector of the Army's health service, the head of high council of medicine, and the president of the Etka organization which was the main purchaser for the army. The medication organization was under his charge. He also enjoyed the monopoly of shrimps granted to him by HIM. An investigation was launched, at Princess Ashraf’s urging, to find corruption, which in his case was inevitable. However it was also found that Ayadi was in the employ of the British intelligence service, which took all of us by surprise. HIM went into a veritable rage at this news, for he has always regarded the British with suspicion. Only his residual affection for the man and the pleas of HMS [Her Majesty the Shahbanou, Empress Farah] prevented his execution, and Dr. Ayadi was sentenced to fifteen years in prison.

All the time, there was the matter of HIM’s illness. It turned out the diagnosis of Waldenström's lymphoma was not right. Princess Ashraf was convinced that it was again one of Ayadi’s duplicities, while HMQ was inclined to consider it a mistake. Dr. Bernard came forth once more and announced that the Shah had lymphatic leukemia, which was considerably more severe. Regardless of the nature of the misdiagnosis, the result was that Drs. Bernard’s and Flandrin’s work was considerably devalued in the eyes of those privy to the information. At this time, this was only HIM, HMQ, Princess Ashraf, Princess Shams, Prime Minister Hoveyda, the doctors themselves, and me.

HIM was mistrustful of either American doctors, whom he considered to be answerable to intelligence agencies, or British ones, as he supposed the British would try to exploit the situation to their favor in one way or another. But Princess Ashraf demanded another opinion. He would travel for testing. Dr. Bernard meekly advised some tests: a biopsy, a CAT scan, marrow testing. It could even be done in Switzerland, he said. She asked whether the tests could be done in Iran, if the equipment could be imported. HIM ruled it, out saying that it was too dangerous to let Iranians deal with such information. It would be far too dangerous to risk such information becoming known. HMQ and his sisters strenuously protested, advising him that such concerns would become moot if HIM were to die.

Princess Ashraf declared that the best way to stave off concerns was to openly address the matter and show that he had nothing to hide. It would be declared that the Shah had an easily treatable form of cancer, that it was normal, that his life was not at risk. With great reluctance HIM finally relented, and proceeded to Switzerland for testing, where it was found that he was sicker than thought. HIM would have to enter intensive treatment. Although cancer treatment facilities were being hastily added on to the Imperial Medical Centre under construction in Tehran, he would still have to travel to Geneva at least every other month. Thus the matter became inherently political, much to my chagrin…
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New York Times of July 12, 1974

SHAH HAS CANCER, TEHERAN ANNOUNCES
SAYS IT’S NOT SEVERE AS RULER SEEKS TREATMENT ABROAD

TEHERAN, Iran – Iran’s ruler, Mohammed Riza Pahlevi, has been diagnosed with a form of cancer, spokesmen for the government there announced yesterday. The Shah has been found to have Waldenström's disease, a mild form of lymphoma which is not necessarily life-threatening. While it is incurable, it is slow-spreading, and many patients are able to lead normal lives, and even after treatment may experience years of remission.

“It is not serious at all, really,” said an official at the Iranian embassy in Washington, on the condition of confidentiality, “I am under the impression that this should not really affect his Majesty’s health in any significant way. We are releasing this news in order to make it clear why His Imperial Majesty has been making visits outside the country,” said the official, referring to his recent personal trips to Switzerland and France, which have been crowded in relative secrecy.

It is expected that the Shah will be able to receive treatment within Iran once a new medical university opens in Teheran this fall. The Shah, 56 years old, is said to otherwise be in good health and good spirits while he receives his treatment. In Iran, the news seems to have been received with a degree of concern. “We are praying for him, but I am sure he will be fine,” said Abdollah Buzsiri, a businessman. While the White House could not be reached for comment, several analysts said that the announcement would not affect much.

“It’s unlikely this news will have much effect on Washington’s relations with Teheran,” said Robert Jervis, a professor of political science at UCLA. Pahlevi will still remain in power, and even if not the same forces that currently hold influence will continue to do so.”

The Shah has ruled since 1941, and his reign has seen a number of economic and social reforms, even as critics contend that his rule has become increasingly repressive and undemocratic. Iran is a major ally of the United States in the Middle East and has forged strong ties with other powers as well.
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[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][1][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=&quot] A real book, but I for the time being will deviate from the diary format for convenience’s sake. I have tried my best to emulate Alam’s writing style. The diaries are a frank and insightful look at the rise and decay of Pahlavi Iran in the 1970s, and are a highly advised read.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][2][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=&quot] Alam also had lymphatic leukemia, and in OTL died in April 1978. Interestingly enough, so did Dr. Ayadi. Some people don’t think this was just a coincidence.[/FONT]
 
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The Shahbanou, ever the proponent of change, stands between the two men who shall now determine their country's future.

Ervand Abrahamian, Two Revolutions: Iran’s Unsteady Path to Democracy (HarperCollins, New York, 2006)

...the Iranian government found itself in an unusual position following the declaration of the Shah’s illness. On one hand, for the first time since Mossadegh’s premiership, if not in all history, it had to face the prospect of its being able to act as an independent actor, making policy choices and decisions on its own accord and not from the dictates of the emperor. The Shah was, as he with all things, a fickle policy-maker, at times micromanaging to the point of negotiating contracts and determining purchases personally (such as test flying the F-14 and F-15 in order to determine which of the two Iran would buy[1]), and at times making grandiose statements on how Iran would soon reach the level, and then exceed, of the Western powers, and then asking his ministers how this could be done. Therefore, the prospect of the diminished influence of the Shah was a welcome story to those politicians, like Prime Minister Hoveyda, who sought greater influence in the management of the country.

At the same time, however, it was not known just how far he would be stepping back from daily affairs—indeed, if he would at all. The Shah had long projected an image of athletic activity, and for the time being he showed no change. However active speculation was rampant, so much so that the Shah asked Alam[2], the Minister of Court, to remind everyone that he was still very much alive and alert. Distasteful as such rumour-mongering and gossiping might have been, though, the fact remained that the Shah would have to step back, at least somewhat, from the daily administration of government, and it would be best to have some sort of arrangement made to prevent a power vacuum. On July 10th, the Shah retreated to his palace at Ramsan, on the Caspian shore. He was followed in short order by much of the court, who wanted to be close in the case he made any significant pronouncements. They were not forthcoming.

That is not to say no agreements were made; very much to the contrary. The negotiations were protracted and byzantine. Princess Ashraf, was at first adamant that the Shah not surrender any power, and maintain the status quo for as long as it was feasible. This met the strenuous objections of the other observes: Empress Farah because she feared the toll the stress of governance would take on her husband’s health, Alam and Hoveyda each in the hope of gaining the authority to curb some of the excesses of Shah’s rule (particularly in terms of corruption and SAVAK, which at that time was beyond the cabinet’s authority). Ashraf relented, sharing Farah’s concern for the Emperor’s health.

It was then proposed to form a privy council of sorts, derived from the idea of a regency council which had been agreed upon in the case of the Shah’s premature demise, as well as the late Qajar practice of such a council. The debate over the composition of such a council soon degenerated into squabbling and competitive lobbying. Princess Ashraf, primarily supported by her niece Princess Shahnaz (in turn influenced by her husband, General Jahanbani), and General Gholam Ali Oveisi, advocated for a council largely composed of military figures and other conservative types, after the one seen in Thailand. Hoveyda, with the Empress’ encouragement, proposed a council filled with judges, artistic figures, and some politicians. This was quickly dismissed. Alam mooted an assembly of old-money figures and court officials. [Ambassador to the United States Ardeshir] Zahedi suggested a council of industrial leaders and businessmen. The Shah rejected them all. “I would not accept two-thirds of these people in my government,” the shah told his wife that weekend. “Why in God’s name would I want them ruling in my stead?” The idea of a privy council was shelved.

The need to construct some sort of mechanism that would allow for decision-making alongside the Shah still remained. But the King of Kings and Light of the Aryans increasingly saw such talk as a brazen attempt at undermining his own power, and threatened to simply leave altogether and, as Ashraf had proposed, keep things in a status quo ante cancerata. By this time, all parties came together to urge him that such a state of affairs was unhealthy. But they had no corresponding unified proposal. The talks dragged on, and eventually all but fizzled out. Exasperated, Hovyeda made a last-ditch proposal.

The Shah would “set goals and the tone for the government”, but it would be the government’s responsibility to implement those goals in the manner they saw fit. The Shah, of course, would be able to tell the government that it was wrong, and in general would be able to, in all circumstances, determine what the government would and would not be able to do. Foreign policy remained his sole preserve. But, and this was the crucial caveat, the government would no longer by necessity be compelled to look to the Shah for directions. It could take broad goals such as countering inflation or industrialization, and create their own policy. The scheme was both by necessity and by nature vague—anything more specific would require more time to concoct, and would likely earn the Shah’s disapproval.

Hoveyda did not expect the Shah to accept to his proposal, at least not in its “entirety”. But he did, to the general surprise of the court. Hoveyda had managed to strike a substantial increase in the power allowed to him. But then came those vying for a piece for that power. For the first time in several decades, government became seen as a worthy goal and not just a holding place for mere functionaries. It is common to misattribute this period as when Iran “became”, or worse yet, “returned to being“ a constitutional monarchy (suggesting there had been some point in the past—perhaps the twilight years of the Qajar era or the early years of Mohammed Reza Pahlavi’s rule—where Iran could be called such a thing). To characterise Iran’s monarchy, at least during the Pahlavi era, as at some point being entirely “absolutist” or at another “constitutional” is an oversimplification, and this era is no different. But it was then Iran began to resemble, if only marginally so, a Western democracy. Hoveyda had opened a Pandora’s box, and had tasked himself with managing the contents.

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[1] This is OTL. The Shah was a skilled and active pilot, often landing his jets during official travels. This occurred at Andrews Air Force base in July 1973; the Shah, of course, chose the F-14. Here is an account of the event.
[2] We know this, of course, because of Alam’s diaries.
 
I like the style.
I know little of local politics but as I read it, the POD is that the Shah's illness is made public and that his treatment will prevent from interfering too much into government affairs. 5 years to avoid a revolution, it's few but I hope democratization will firmly take root. Now, with the Shah being treated so early, I wonder if it would give him some extra years to live. Anyway, with his son, the democratic process would surely be firmly underway, with Empress Farah having more influence.

Now, I wait to see the consequence on geopolitics. I doubt that the war with Irak would happen. On Afghanistan, the Americans would have other bases to undermine Soviet occupation. And Carter would not have to face such a huge defeat on foreign politics without the Iranian Revolution and the Hostage Crisis.

Good start anyway. Keep up!
 
I like the style.
I know little of local politics but as I read it, the POD is that the Shah's illness is made public and that his treatment will prevent from interfering too much into government affairs. 5 years to avoid a revolution, it's few but I hope democratization will firmly take root. Now, with the Shah being treated so early, I wonder if it would give him some extra years to live. Anyway, with his son, the democratic process would surely be firmly underway, with Empress Farah having more influence.

Now, I wait to see the consequence on geopolitics. I doubt that the war with Irak would happen. On Afghanistan, the Americans would have other bases to undermine Soviet occupation. And Carter would not have to face such a huge defeat on foreign politics without the Iranian Revolution and the Hostage Crisis.

Good start anyway. Keep up!

In OTL, the Shah was not informed until 1977, three years after the fact. He, in turn, was not properly medicated until then, and not meaningfully treated until his overthrow. Here, Ashraf's brownnosing forces an earlier revelation, and the Shah seeks treatment, prompting the public declaration (to stave off rumour mongering)
 

Archibald

Banned
Will follow this with great interest. By the way - communication satellites are boring, but they are the first, baby step in the direction of a space program... ;)

According to wikipedia

Zohreh is a geosynchronous communication satellite which was originally proposed before the Revolution in the 1970s as part of a joint Indian-Iranian project of four Iranian satellites to be launched by the then upcoming NASA space shuttles.

In the 80's NASA offered payload specialist slots to countries launching their own communication satellite via the space shuttle. Indonesian astronauts were to ride a shuttle to deploy Palapas satellites; British astronauts would deploy Skynets; and on, and on. STS-51L decided otherwise, and all these plans were shelved past 1986...
 
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I posted a comment in the 'military without islamic revn' that should probably have gone here, i may have confused similar threads.

The 14th World Jamboree was slated for Iran until the instability heated up. If the Shah remains in power, it likely stays. My brother would have missed all the cute scandinavian female Scouts he met in the hastily moved to Denmark Jamboree....
 
It is common to misattribute this period as when Iran “became”, or worse yet, “returned to being“ a constitutional monarchy.

It certainly isn't one, not least because what happened was more a palace coup than a change in the legal structure. The Shah's partial withdrawal from power was done on a handshake and the only thing regulating the balance of power is an informal deal. Not to mention that the process by which the government is chosen isn't very democratic. But it's a first step, and I'll look forward to seeing where it leads.
 
I posted a comment in the 'military without islamic revn' that should probably have gone here, i may have confused similar threads.

The 14th World Jamboree was slated for Iran until the instability heated up. If the Shah remains in power, it likely stays. My brother would have missed all the cute scandinavian female Scouts he met in the hastily moved to Denmark Jamboree....

If I recall correctly, and I say this as a conviction both as a (former) Scout and a self-proclaimed expert in all things-that-Iran-was-supposed-to-do-but-didn't-because-of-the-revolution, Iran was to host the 15th Jamboree, which was, as you stated, was cancelled. The 14th was in Norway. Instead several "mini-jamboree" events were held around the world, one of which could have been in Denmark (I'm not sure where they were) which is what he remembered. But I say this from experience, Persian women are nothing to scoff at...

BUMP.
( Yes, I know it's only a day since last update )
:D

It's actually been nearly five months, so I will give you a pass here!

Will follow this with great interest. By the way - communication satellites are boring, but they are the first, baby step in the direction of a space program... ;)

According to wikipedia

In the 80's NASA offered payload specialist slots to countries launching their own communication satellite via the space shuttle. Indonesian astronauts were to ride a shuttle to deploy Palapas satellites; British astronauts would deploy Skynets; and on, and on. STS-51L decided otherwise, and all these plans were shelved past 1986...

I'd read of a few off-hand references to this but never bothered to look deeper, and it seems they were further along than I thought they were. Satellites will certainly play a role in my envisioned Iranian global propag-information network. The words of Shahanshah Aryamehr, in space...

It certainly isn't one, not least because what happened was more a palace coup than a change in the legal structure. The Shah's partial withdrawal from power was done on a handshake and the only thing regulating the balance of power is an informal deal. Not to mention that the process by which the government is chosen isn't very democratic. But it's a first step, and I'll look forward to seeing where it leads.

Either way, I feel honoured to have you following my little timeline... I completely am in awe of Malê Rising.
 
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