Alternate post-WW2 Europe scenario

JJohnson · Apr 16, 2013

I was wondering about a theoretical post WW2 Europe and what its repercussions would be.

Let's say that France had some PoD that led it to start the second World War. It's divided into occupation zones between the UK, US, and Germany.

Germany was occupied by Poland, Czechoslovakia, and France during the war; France occupied Belgium and the Netherlands. Germany had Posen/West Prussia given to Poland after WW1, but regained them after WW2, with population transfers of ethnic Germans into Germany, and Polish into Poland (here roughly the same as the Second Polish Republic minus any land gained after WW1 from Germany). Germany now has its pre-WW1 borders as of 1947, aside from North Schleswig, plus the Sudeten regions are annexed to Germany and Austria, along with South Tirol.

This Europe gets a Marshall Plan somewhat like OTL. Operation Paperclip does not happen to Germany, leaving the patents and scientists alone.

The question is, does France have much in the way of patents or scientists for the allies in such a world to confiscate? In exchange for Marshall Plan help, would Germany share patents and scientists with the US/UK to reduce repayment amounts? How do you see this version of Germany rebuilding over the next two to three decades? And what kind of effects would this have on the US space program?

user23123 · Apr 16, 2013

Of course France will have patents and scientists for the allies to acquire after the war,the numbers are a different matter.
There is on need for a Operation Paperclip for Germany especially if Germany is occupied,the patents and scientists will flee to the allies on there on.
For the mater of reparations i presume you are referring to reparations from WWI.Since Germany will be an allied country in this scenario will some of the claims on Germany will be written-off and maybe transfer to France and her allies after the war.
Germany (Scientists to be more precisely) will collaborate in full white the allies
especially again if Germany is occupied,for example Von Brown and is team might develop the V series of rockets in U.S. this will mean that U.S. space program will not suffer.
Germany in the decades after the war:
Political more influence on the international stage.
Military more powerful,they will portably build the A-bomb with the Brits not just research it,and then is the matter of U.S.S.R. and what the acquire in Eastern Europe.
Economically if this Germany will resemble think post WWII boom of D.F.R applied to a much lager country,that will benefit of more founding from the Marshall Plan,will not suffer will have not suffer from stripping of her industrial capacities after the war (it will suffer war damage and from the occupation), depending one how much this Germany spend on there military (Some of the reasons Germany is so powerful in our time is the fact that after the defeat in WWII the where free to concentrate more on the economy and fare less on military,Germany after WWII did not need spend so much on projecting military power on the global stage compare to the others US,FR,UK).
if as OTL GER the concentrate on the economy and let the policing of the world to the Americans and the Brits,we might be talking midgets and giants in therms of economy when it will come to Germany and the rest of Europe.

Snaut · Apr 16, 2013

JJohnson said:
Germany had Posen/West Prussia given to Poland after WW1, but regained them after WW2, with population transfers of ethnic Germans into Germany, and Polish into Poland (here roughly the same as the Second Polish Republic minus any land gained after WW1 from Germany). Germany now has its pre-WW1 borders as of 1947, aside from North Schleswig, plus the Sudeten regions are annexed to Germany and Austria, along with South Tirol.

Ah, yes, the germany-absolutely-must-regain-all-its-pre-1914-borders idea strikes again.

In OTL in 1939 there were no more then a million Germans living in the whole of Poland. Most of them lived within the pre-1914 borders of Germany. The number of Germans in interwar Poland outside the 1914 German borders was virtually nil. Meanwhile, as of 1939 there were 4 000 000 Poles living in the area Germany lost after WWI.

This transfer you propose would involve several million Poles (some would claim to be Germans and get to stay, but if Germany is intent on removing Poles from its territory, most of them will still have to go) exchanged for max 200 000 Germans.

As far as I am aware, there was a tendency in Germany for the population to move out of the eastern areas, not into them. So Germany now has large empty areas, the ethnic cleansing of which was a PR disaster, which nobody is in a hurry to colonize. I could buy Upper Silesia (relatively small and valuable), and the thinnest bit of the Polish Corridor being dealt with a similar manner. As for the rest ... there's a reason that OTL Germany gave up on regaining it.

And Alsace-Lorraine too...

What happened in this timeline to make Germany do all this, and for the UK and US to support this decision?

And what was the USSR doing all this time?

MattII · Apr 16, 2013

Before I discuss anything I'm going to wanted a drafted timeline, because this sounds like a lot of bull, Poland and Czechoslovakia weren't the slightest bit expansionist, so how France draws them in...

Bri2k · Apr 16, 2013

Your POD would have to be prior to W.W. I and possibly before the Triple Entente of 1907 for this to be remotely plausible. France was so bloodied by the Great War that they had absolutely no desire to be involved in another one. Witness their lack of response to the re-militarization of the Rhineland in 1936, their refusal to support Republican Spain in 1937 and their desire to appease the fascists at the Munich conference in 1938.

Grey Wolf · Apr 16, 2013

MattII said:
Before I discuss anything I'm going to wanted a drafted timeline, because this sounds like a lot of bull, Poland and Czechoslovakia weren't the slightest bit expansionist, so how France draws them in...

Poland was obviously expansionist since it annexed a chunk of Czechoslovakia in 1938

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaolzie

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

KACKO · Apr 16, 2013

JJohnson said:
Germany was occupied by Poland, Czechoslovakia, and France during the war; France occupied Belgium and the Netherlands. Germany had Posen/West Prussia given to Poland after WW1, but regained them after WW2, with population transfers of ethnic Germans into Germany, and Polish into Poland (here roughly the same as the Second Polish Republic minus any land gained after WW1 from Germany). Germany now has its pre-WW1 borders as of 1947, aside from North Schleswig, plus the Sudeten regions are annexed to Germany and Austria, along with South Tirol.

i am surprised nobody noticed that, but if Czechoslovakia is going to war against Germany, is part of winning powers, it got its army on occupation duty in Germany along with France and Poland and it loose Sudetland anyway? Hold your horses here. That would mean revolution in Prague.

KACKO · Apr 16, 2013

Grey Wolf said:
Poland was obviously expansionist since it annexed a chunk of Czechoslovakia in 1938

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaolzie

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Not just Zaolzie. They annexed also parts of Slovak Kysuce, Orava and Spsi regions. Which sharply changed Slovak pro Polish positions and helped to influence their participation OTL September 1939 campaign which was justified to population as liberation of territories occupied by Poland.

http://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soubor:Slovakia_borderPoland.png

Rudi Maxer · Apr 16, 2013

KACKO said:
i am surprised nobody noticed that, but if Czechoslovakia is going to war against Germany, is part of winning powers, it got its army on occupation duty in Germany along with France and Poland and it loose Sudetland anyway? Hold your horses here. That would mean revolution in Prague.

You didn't notice that in OP scenario the Germans seem to be good guys, getting help from UK and US which lets them win at the end.

Overall, this scenario is ASB. I can imagine France, Poland and Czechoslovakia invading Germany in 30's if they were somehow convinced that Germany is going to start a new war anyway. Perhaps it would be even possible for France to temporary occupy Belgium and Netherlands as a springboard for invasion of Germany, but in no way would UK and US side with Germans.

Grey Wolf · Apr 16, 2013

The ASB word is over-used. If Britain went not quite fascist, think Mosley's New Party, then maybe Britain doesn't back France over the Rhineland intervention that in this changed TL happens...

JJohnson · Apr 16, 2013

Zaius said:
Ah, yes, the germany-absolutely-must-regain-all-its-pre-1914-borders idea strikes again.

In OTL in 1939 there were no more then a million Germans living in the whole of Poland. Most of them lived within the pre-1914 borders of Germany. The number of Germans in interwar Poland outside the 1914 German borders was virtually nil. Meanwhile, as of 1939 there were 4 000 000 Poles living in the area Germany lost after WWI.

This transfer you propose would involve several million Poles (some would claim to be Germans and get to stay, but if Germany is intent on removing Poles from its territory, most of them will still have to go) exchanged for max 200 000 Germans.

As far as I am aware, there was a tendency in Germany for the population to move out of the eastern areas, not into them. So Germany now has large empty areas, the ethnic cleansing of which was a PR disaster, which nobody is in a hurry to colonize. I could buy Upper Silesia (relatively small and valuable), and the thinnest bit of the Polish Corridor being dealt with a similar manner. As for the rest ... there's a reason that OTL Germany gave up on regaining it.

And Alsace-Lorraine too...

What happened in this timeline to make Germany do all this, and for the UK and US to support this decision?

And what was the USSR doing all this time?

It might take a pre-1900 PoD to lead this to happen in this manner. As for the USSR, I'm not certain their position on what happened in Europe during the 30s. For the sake of argument, let's say France's PSF and/or Croix-de-Feu gains a much larger following and has a successful coup in the late 20s/early 30s, do you think they would seek some kind of alliance with the USSR for the purpose of dividing up Germany/Poland?

If the US had a completely different President that had eased some of the Versailles terms to such a degree that Weimar Germany had difficulty after the war, but was not as burdened as OTL, could French veterans see this as some kind of betrayal and perhaps aid the CdF in their coup?

KACKO · Apr 16, 2013

Rudi Maxer said:
You didn't notice that in OP scenario the Germans seem to be good guys, getting help from UK and US which lets them win at the end.

I didn't indeed. But even if France started WWII for example over Munich crisis and managed to defeat Germany, nobody would give a damn. There would be no sudden switch and War declaration from GB and US, max what would happen would be colder relations with British.

Chevalier · Apr 16, 2013

KACKO said:
i am surprised nobody noticed that, but if Czechoslovakia is going to war against Germany, is part of winning powers, it got its army on occupation duty in Germany along with France and Poland and it loose Sudetland anyway? Hold your horses here. That would mean revolution in Prague.

Czechoslovakia occupied Germany during the war, then LOST the war together with Poland and France and THEN the Sudetenland was annexed by Germany.
Seems logical.

KACKO · Apr 16, 2013

Chevalier said:
Czechoslovakia occupied Germany during the war, then LOST the war together with Poland and France and THEN the Sudetenland was annexed by Germany.
Seems logical.

Sure. But if they occupied Germany, against who they are going to loose the war? Britain and US? They wouldn't care. Germany was totalitarian, persecuted political enemies of the state, minorities, Jews. On the other side, France, Czechoslovakia and even Poland were pretty much democracies. Maybe Poland was flawed one, but still better then Germany or Soviet Union. Once Germany is occupied, max what could happen Victors will retreat after peace is negotiated.

Grey Wolf · Apr 16, 2013

KACKO said:
Sure. But if they occupied Germany, against who they are going to loose the war? Britain and US? They wouldn't care. Germany was totalitarian, persecuted political enemies of the state, minorities, Jews. On the other side, France, Czechoslovakia and even Poland were pretty much democracies. Maybe Poland was flawed one, but still better then Germany or Soviet Union. Once Germany is occupied, max what could happen Victors will retreat after peace is negotiated.

Well its alternate history, it doesn't have to have been like that!

I began explaiining how things could be different, but didn't want to write a whole timeline for it!

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Chevalier · Apr 16, 2013

The goal would be to weaken the aggressor (loser). If France started the war and Germany lost it (as it was occupied), Germany wouldn't be seen as a major threat (as their major victories in Poland, France, Sovietunion, etc would be butterflied away).
Germany would not gain this territories because their allies want Germany to be stronger (maybe a little) but most likely to weaken their enemies.

user23123 · Apr 16, 2013

KACKO said:
Sure. But if they occupied Germany, against who they are going to loose the war? Britain and US? They wouldn't care. Germany was totalitarian, persecuted political enemies of the state, minorities, Jews. On the other side, France, Czechoslovakia and even Poland were pretty much democracies. Maybe Poland was flawed one, but still better then Germany or Soviet Union. Once Germany is occupied, max what could happen Victors will retreat after peace is negotiated.

UK will care it is call balance of power,in this scenario France will be to strong,in any European war scenario the rest will care and get involved,so it doesn't mater how invented how (or how of totalitarian state the invented is) the rest will get in.
And presumably in this scenario Germany is not a totalitarian stat but a democracy,and presumably France is the totalitarian one.(i don't see totalitarian Germany being occupied by France or an no totalitarian France occupying Germany. )

Grey Wolf · Apr 16, 2013

Germany could be halfway there, like the military-controlled but non fascist states that were not uncommon in Europe

Especially if for example taking otl 1933 the only alternative had been to give power to the fascists or to the communists, and the conservatives had backed a military coup instead

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

user23123 · Apr 16, 2013

Chevalier said:
The goal would be to weaken the aggressor (loser). If France started the war and Germany lost it (as it was occupied), Germany wouldn't be seen as a major threat (as their major victories in Poland, France, Sovietunion, etc would be butterflied away).
Germany would not gain this territories because their allies want Germany to be stronger (maybe a little) but most likely to weaken their enemies.

Well trow U.S.S.R. in the mix and Germany might get some territories,if for ex Poland in in soviets control,for the allies (if they cannot create an independent Poland (an west Poland) ) they will presumably be more happy if Germany gets those territories and not the soviets,Germany will not get hear borders before WWI,So if the allies are presented whit the fallowing option for ex.: Student is incorporated in Soviet Czechoslovakia or Germany i presume the will would choose Germany.

KACKO · Apr 16, 2013

user23123 said:
UK will care it is call balance of power,in this scenario France will be to strong,in any European war scenario the rest will care and get involved,so it doesn't mater how invented how (or how of totalitarian state the invented is) the rest will get in.
And presumably in this scenario Germany is not a totalitarian stat but a democracy,and presumably France is the totalitarian one.(i don't see totalitarian Germany being occupied by France or an no totalitarian France occupying Germany. )

Well, post doesn't say France is totalitarian. It just say with some POD France attacked together with its allies in Central Europe.

Even if British could feel upset a bit over France domination of continent, they will do nothing. France dominated continent after WWI OTL and actually with British help. Poland, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Yugoslavia had military treaties mostly with France and modeled their militaries after French army.

To change British position so dramatically much early POD is necessary. British early after WWI allying with Weimar Germany, pushing for lower reparations as a response for France domination of continent.

US would care even less as US-French relations were pretty good. French would need to be stupid as Hitler to get on US wrong side.

Polish and Czechoslovak relations were also good due as WWI allies and as big minorities from these two countries were living there.

For France - Polish - Czecholsovak alliance to loose the war you will need Soviet intervention.
France and Czechoslovakia had pretty good relations with Soviets. Polands were worst, but if Soviet didn't threaten them, they have no reason for military actions against them.

But let say it happens. So you will end up with half a Europe communist as OTL.
On other side. I do not know how will Germans look on Soviet liberating them from under French occupation.