So let's say that the Novgorod Republic lost the battle against the Teutonic Knights. How would this have affected later history, and what would the effects be on the modern day, if any?
WI: Teutonic Order wins Battle of the Ice
- Thread starter Star Eater
- Start date
Not much in the short term, the Teutonic Knights were operating right at the edge of their logistical range and manpower limits while the Novgorodians would have been able to assemble more armies and found it ever easier to push the Knights back the further they advanced. That means no exploitation of a victory. However the Knights would have held onto Pskov which they had to give up in OTL and probably would also have acquired some marshes and uncleared forest in the surrounding area.
In the longer run the Knights might have continued with their efforts to push East however I doubt they'd succeed. First waging aggressive wars of conquest against fellow Christians, even if they're schismatics is much harder to defend. But more importantly the Knights have more than enough on their plate in the form of the Lithuanians and Poles, never mind the surviving Prussians. They need at least one quiet and peaceful border otherwise they are going to be in serious trouble and the Novgorodians are the neighbours they have the fewest intractable disputes with. Similarly the Novgorodians also have lots of other problems to deal with and have every reason to make peace, so I think some kind of long term accommodation is going to be made and the Narva River and Lake Peipus is the obvious geographical boundary in the area. The details might be different with the "Catholic" border being slightly further east, with Pskov as the most Easterly Catholic city rather than the Westerly Orthodox city but the Narva valley would almost certainly would have ended up being the border between the Catholic and Orthodox worlds.
In the longer run the Knights might have continued with their efforts to push East however I doubt they'd succeed. First waging aggressive wars of conquest against fellow Christians, even if they're schismatics is much harder to defend. But more importantly the Knights have more than enough on their plate in the form of the Lithuanians and Poles, never mind the surviving Prussians. They need at least one quiet and peaceful border otherwise they are going to be in serious trouble and the Novgorodians are the neighbours they have the fewest intractable disputes with. Similarly the Novgorodians also have lots of other problems to deal with and have every reason to make peace, so I think some kind of long term accommodation is going to be made and the Narva River and Lake Peipus is the obvious geographical boundary in the area. The details might be different with the "Catholic" border being slightly further east, with Pskov as the most Easterly Catholic city rather than the Westerly Orthodox city but the Narva valley would almost certainly would have ended up being the border between the Catholic and Orthodox worlds.
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MarshalBraginsky
Banned
If Nevsky was killed in the Battle of the Ice, then the Teutonic Knights might have some success, but can it result in a more, concentrated effort by the Poles and Lithuanians to wage a more aggressive war on the Teutonic Knights? As for the Novgorod Republic, would it be forced to choose between the Teutonic Order and the Golden Horde?
IIRC the choice had been already made before the Battle of Ice. The Mongols took part in the battle on Novgorodian side.
katchen
Banned
It's possible that the Teutonic Knights might have taken over Novgorod itself. But I can't see the Teutonic Knights taking over the vast Finno-Komi speaking lands north and northeast of Lake Ladoga, all the way to the Urals that Novgorod had taken over. Sweden would fill that power vacuum and be well on it's way into Siberia, which already it knew about (at least the Western Siberian lowland, known as the Land of Yugor, rich in furs). Eventually the Swedes might get Novgorod itself.
The Tartar and Mongol threat is the main reason why the Novgorodians are like OTL going to want stay on the defensive against the Teutonic Knights and if possible secure a peace even at the expense of some territorial concessions. The Novgorodians foes in order of danger were the Mongols/Tartars/Steppe people and then the pagan Lithuanians with the Knights a distant last, while the Teutonic Knights briefly attacked to take advantage of Rus weakness generally relations were pretty good for most of the period as both sides hated the Liths much more than they hated each other*. Remember who ended up conquering most of the Western Rus principalities.
As for the Poles and Lithuanians they aren't going to be allies and friends for a long time. It took until 1387 when Lithuania Christianised and formed a personal union with Poland for them to team up against the Knights. Until then one of the big disputes between Poland and the Knights was who ought to bear the burden of fighting the Liths who who should control any captured territory. The Poles did occasionally ally with the Liths against the Knights, they had many fewer religious scruples than the Crusaders for obvious reasons but that didn't make them friends and until the personal union between Poland and Lithuania the Knights were always able to break up any temporary alliance.
*and yes I know Nevsky allied with the Lithuanians against the Mongols at some point but all the Rus leaders spent the entire era trying to balance out the various enemies surrounding them.
Lithuanian princes were frequent allies to both Pskov and the Polotsk dynastic rulers, and were regarded as a much better alternative to the Knights - not that there weren't contrary examples.
What makes the Battle on the Ice special is that it's one of the relatively few times Pskov and Novogord aligned, mostly because Novogorod was afraid that Pskov might be lost as a potential re-acquisition forever. Pskov and Novgorod otherwise had divergent interests (Novgorod thought Pskov was an unruly vassal, Pskov didn't agree).
In any case the bulk of the fighting was done by the forces of Nevsky and his brother, who were from the Vladimir dynasty.
In the long run though, I don't see the Knights holding on to Pskov for very long (it was the biggest capture they ever made and I doubt they had much support in the Pskovitan republic), and they tended to lose battles in the field anyway. The Russians however were just no good at besieging walled cities, so the Knights' centres of power were never threatened no matter how many times the Russian/Lithuanian princes ravaged the Order lands.
What makes the Battle on the Ice special is that it's one of the relatively few times Pskov and Novogord aligned, mostly because Novogorod was afraid that Pskov might be lost as a potential re-acquisition forever. Pskov and Novgorod otherwise had divergent interests (Novgorod thought Pskov was an unruly vassal, Pskov didn't agree).
In any case the bulk of the fighting was done by the forces of Nevsky and his brother, who were from the Vladimir dynasty.
In the long run though, I don't see the Knights holding on to Pskov for very long (it was the biggest capture they ever made and I doubt they had much support in the Pskovitan republic), and they tended to lose battles in the field anyway. The Russians however were just no good at besieging walled cities, so the Knights' centres of power were never threatened no matter how many times the Russian/Lithuanian princes ravaged the Order lands.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
I'm not sure if any historical source mentioned something about Batu Khan's armies fighting the Teutonic Order though, but this occured before Nevsky became Sartaq's anda.
Combine this with a Mongol attack on Lithuania and Novgorod you are heading for a Teuton wank.
Or they simply get thrown out of Pskov when the people have had enough. It's not like they can garrison it effectively, forever, and it's not like there aren't a dozen princes in central Russia who have personal retinues about as big as the average army the Order can summon, who can conspire with the Pskovitans. Or Lithuanians can do it instead of Vladimir.
It could be a Teuton wank if they are given enough time to build some major fortresses (sort of like Fellin/Riga/Kokenhausen) at the mouth of the Narva and the Neva. Which is you know, not easy and not fast, and would make Sweden unhappy.
As mentioned before, it's the logistics which prevent any major changes. You'd have the Teutonic knights to win that battle and be able to pursue far further inland thereafter. For that, in turn, you'd need a better developped OTL Latvia and Estonia, say much more German settlement in the years before with a decent infrastructure and economy to support a force far larger than the one the knights had there IOTL.
If they keep Pskov they definitely will bring in Germanic settlers, just like in the rest of the Estonia*, but also just like the rest of Estonia the Germans will probably remain in the urban burghers/rural nobility category and not become peasants meaning the area will remain "native" majority.
*which Pskov would be regarded as in this TL.