WI: Warsaw not Prague - a different Munich

What happens if Hitler engineers a conflict in Poland to reclaim the corridor before trying for the Sudetenland?

The premise is that Hitler has one last diplomatic card to play in 1938 and he chooses to lean on Poland for the corridor rather than Czechoslovakia for the Sudetenland

If Chamberlain's "piece of paper" signs over the corridor over to Germany leaving Poland with the worthless guarantees, what happens in 1939?

Alternatively, if Poland refuses the deal and chooses to fight how does that play out?

Derek Pullem said:

What happens if Hitler engineers a conflict in Poland to reclaim the corridor before trying for the Sudetenland?

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Geography is against this:





As you can see, Czechoslovakia stabs deep into the heart of Germany; a move against Poland without taking Czechoslovakia first would leave Germany dangerously vulnerable to attack deep within its flanks, even after the Anschluss. The Polish German border is also significantly shorter than it was after Czechoslovakia was swallowed up by the Reich making Poland far less vulnerable. In addition to which, the Czech armaments industry was the largest in Europe; a far too inviting a prize to pass up and the Czechs had an alliance with both France and the Soviet Union, it had to be eliminated before Hitler could go any further.

And Hitler always went after the weakest party, singling them out, isolating them from potential allies and then attacking, often with the aid of those who would shortly become his next victims; it was the method he employed to take over the Nazi party and then Germany before applying it to foreign expansion; hence Austria, then Czechoslovakia and Lithuania, and then Poland.

Not well. Hitler would'nt wage war with Russia looming over the East. Most likely choice for him would be a earlier Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, but with notable differences FOTL. One big divergence from ours is that Stalin would have the upper hands in the negotiations, since it would be simple for him to wage war with a valid excuse: protecting Poland from a bully overstepping his bounds. Of course, this would be a simple bluff to incorporate Stalinist Communism into the two states, but Great Britain and France initialy would scold Germany and create some good feelings with the Soviet Union for the duration of the war.

This is 1938 were talking about. Even a outdated, obselete millitary like the USSR's would be able to defeat the still developing German warmachine with sheer numbers. That being said, this creates some butterflies for the East as well. Japan would have less bargaining chips to make demands with, and subsequently focus solely on China; because their would be no distractions from keeping the combined strength of the Dutch, British, and French fleets which would eventualy arrive before her campaigns can be completed.

Of course, it all depends on whatever goes through Uncle Joe's mind at the time: Make some time with Germany while also gaining chunks of Poland or fight a war with approval from the West and possibly gain a large vantage point to spread Communism from.

The USSR was the premier developer of military theory, equipment, airborne tactics, aircraft, etc in the 1930s. Just the opposite of obsolete.

Julian said:

The USSR was the premier developer of military theory, equipment, airborne tactics, aircraft, etc in the 1930s. Just the opposite of obsolete.

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My apoligies. I have limited knowledge of the Soviet millitary between the 1920-1930, other then the Great Purge and typical stereotypes.

Aztinca said:

Not well. Hitler would'nt wage war with Russia looming over the East. Most likely choice for him would be a earlier Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, but with notable differences FOTL.

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Not even remotely an option; Litvinov was the Soviet foreign minister and Stalin still favoured Collective Security within the framework of the League of Nations. It was only the Anglo-French freezing out of the Soviet Union at Munich that made it clear to Stalin that Collective Security was not a viable option, leading to Litvinov’s removal from the foreign ministry in mid-1939 and replacement with Molotov specifically to develop a relationship with Nazi Germany. In fact Chamberlain and Halifax both publicly said that Collective Security was dead (in early 1939) before Stalin abandoned it.

Aztinca said:

This is 1938 were talking about. Even a outdated, obselete millitary like the USSR's would be able to defeat the still developing German warmachine with sheer numbers.

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The Soviet Union’s military in mid-1938 was by no means obsolete or out-dated. Unfortunately this was at the height of the purges and Soviet military effectiveness was declining rapidly; Tukhachevsky had been purged the year before and the doctrine of mobile, mechanised warfare that he’d promoted had become politically unwise to be associated with.

Cook said:

Geography is against this:

As you can see, Czechoslovakia stabs deep into the heart of Germany; a move against Poland without taking Czechoslovakia first would leave Germany dangerously vulnerable to attack deep within its flanks, even after the Anschluss. The Polish German border is also significantly shorter than it was after Czechoslovakia was swallowed up by the Reich. In addition to which, the Czech armaments industry was the largest in Europe; a far too inviting a prize to pass up.

And Hitler always went after the weakest party, singling them out, isolating them from potential allies and then attacking, often with the aid of those who would shortly become his next victims; it was the method he employed to take over the Nazi party and then Germany before applying it to foreign expansion; hence Austria, then Czechoslovakia, and Lithuania, and then Poland.

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Of course that works both ways. Czechosolvakia does thrust into Southern Germany but likewise it is surrounded by Germany.

A military action against Czechoslovakia would not be significantly more difficult than Poland, even with the Sudeten forts (especially if Hungary - and Poland - joins in too to enforce their own claims).

So the TL might work something like this

May 1938 Hitler orders plans for invasion of Poland
August September 1938 German troops mass on Polish border
September 28 Ultimatum to Poland to give up the Polish Corridor
September 29 Munich Conference
September 30 Munich agreement and collapse of Polish Government
March 1939 Hitler demands Sudetenland
April 1939 Czechoslovakia refuses, France (and Britain) provide guarantees to Czechoslovakia
May 1939 WW2 - Germany declares war on Czechoslovakia, Poland and Hungary occupy their respective sectors of Czechoslovakia after a couple of weeks citing security / protectorate issues
June 1939 Phony war, Fall of Prague end of Czech resistance
July-August 1939 Modified Ribbentrop pact defining Moscow / Berlin / Warsaw influence in Romania, Finland and Baltic states

Cook said:

Not even remotely an option; Litvinov was the Soviet foreign minister and Stalin still favoured collective security within the framework of the League of Nations. It was only the Anglo-French freezing out of the Soviet Union at Munich that made it clear to Stalin that Collective Security was not a viable option, leading to Litvinov’s removal from the foreign ministry in mid-1939.

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Then that leaves Hitler with little choice regarding Poland. He can go for Sudetenland instead or continue his claimon the Polish corridor.

Anyhow, I wonder what would happen if this was made public and it looks like war is unavoidable. Will Hitler follow through or will he back off? Neither scenario is a beautiful picture for Germany; the initial perks will give off to the eventual negative impact that follows.

Derek Pullem said:

So the TL might work something like this

May 1938 Hitler orders plans for invasion of Poland
August September 1938 German troops mass on Polish border
September 28 Ultimatum to Poland to give up the Polish Corridor
September 29 Munich Conference
September 30 Munich agreement and collapse of Polish Government
March 1939 Hitler demands Sudetenland
April 1939 Czechoslovakia refuses, France (and Britain) provide guarantees to Czechoslovakia
May 1939 WW2 - Germany declares war on Czechoslovakia, Poland and Hungary occupy their respective sectors of Czechoslovakia after a couple of weeks citing security / protectorate issues
June 1939 Phony war, Fall of Prague end of Czech resistance
July-August 1939 Modified Ribbentrop pact defining Moscow / Berlin / Warsaw influence in Romania, Finland and Baltic states

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Interesting. But I doubt that neither Stalin nor Hitler would be willing to wage fair diplomacy with Poland; It's position between Germany and the Soviet Union makes it a irresistable target.

Derek Pullem said:

September 30 Munich agreement and collapse of Polish Government

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The Poles made it very clear a year later that they would not negotiate and would fight even if they didn’t have the support of the British and French. The German Army were not confident that they could defeat the French and Czechs in 1938, even knowing that Poland would aid them in invading Czechoslovakia and block the Soviets, so there wouldn’t be even the remotest confidence of taking on Poland and France and the Czechs.

Derek Pullem said:

A military action against Czechoslovakia would not be significantly more difficult than Poland, even with the Sudeten forts

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It wasn’t the more difficult option; it was the easier option, that’s why it was chosen. It exposed a deep flank into Germany that Poland didn’t; there simply was no getting around it.

Cook said:

The Poles made it very clear a year later that they would not negotiate and would fight even if they didn’t have the support of the British and French. The German Army were not confident that they could defeat the French and Czechs in 1938, even knowing that Poland would aid them in invading Czechoslovakia and block the Soviets, so there wouldn’t be even the remotest confidence of taking on Poland and France and the Czechs.



It wasn’t the more difficult option; it was the easier option, that’s why it was chosen. It exposed a deep flank into Germany that Poland didn’t; there simply was no getting around it.

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In the timeline I suggested Czechoslovakia would not be fighting in 1938 but 1939. Plus instead of Russia coming through the back door it would be Hungary and Poland (new govt.)

Poland said that they would fight after Hitler had invaded Czechoslovakia - they (rightly) didn't trust him. I'm speculating that under Allied diplomatic pressure the existing Polish government might crumble without this precedent and a more anti-soviet, pro-german accomodation govt might be installed, possibly National Democrat led (although their antipathy for the jews - and hence common ground with the nazis - may not be suffcient for them to accept the loss of the corridor.)

Another thing - German Army in 1938 is significantly weaker than forces which invaded Poland in 1939 IOTL, since they do not have captured Czech weapons and equipment which allowed them to organize ca 20 divisions, IIRC (not only infantry). And, as it was mentioned above, Poland has its souther border relatively safe. Also, without Sovier support or at least neutrality, Germans must be weary of Soviet intervention.
OTOH Britain will not be willing to support Poles, and France will not particularly eager to do it either. I'm not sure if Czechoslovakia would help Poland in case of German aggression, since Polish-Czechoslovakian relations were rather cold.

Derek Pullem said:

a more anti-soviet, pro-german accomodation govt might be installed, possibly National Democrat led (although their antipathy for the jews - and hence common ground with the nazis - may not be suffcient for them to accept the loss of the corridor.)

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Polish dislike of Jews = common ground of any sort with Nazis, because nothing else was more important to the Poles besides ridding the earth of Jews. Nonsense.

This would in no way influence their acceptance of losing the Corridor. It is concieveable that a Polish government might give it up if the only alternative is a war they cant win, but as long as it isn't directly controlled by Germany it will try to regain that corridor as soon as the opportunity arises.

Derek Pullem said:

I'm speculating that under Allied diplomatic pressure the existing Polish government might crumble without this precedent

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I fail to see how would Polish government of 1938 crumble in such situation. France & UK just didn't have that much leverage.

Derek Pullem said:

and a more anti-soviet, pro-german accomodation govt might be installed, possibly National Democrat led

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Pfffffffffffffffffffffffft. Oh, the IGNORANCE.

FYI. National Democrats were the most anti-German major party in interwar Poland.

Tizoc said:

I fail to see how would Polish government of 1938 crumble in such situation. France & UK just didn't have that much leverage.


Pfffffffffffffffffffffffft. Oh, the IGNORANCE.

FYI. National Democrats were the most anti-German major party in interwar Poland.

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Apologies if I offended you. I was basing my opinion on what my uncle told me about National Democrats / National Radical Camp. He may have been a little biased but he always described then as anti-everything - anti-communist, anti-jew, anti-german, anti-russian, anti-ukrainian.

The premise was that Moscicki would try to avoid an unwinnable war and end up being completely displaced by the far right. Who when faced with the choice of expanding Polish borders or being squished between USSRand Germany would take the opportunity to take on the disputed areas. As happened in OTL.

In this time line Poland loses the corridor but effectively makes the same deal with Germany as USSR did. Leave us alone (mostly) and we'll support you enforcing your claims in Czechoslovakia and Lithuania.

Derek Pullem said:

In this time line Poland loses the corridor but effectively makes the same deal with Germany as USSR did. Leave us alone (mostly) and we'll support you enforcing your claims in Czechoslovakia and Lithuania.

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OTL was not 'effectively the same' as what you propose. In OTL the Polish-German de facto co-operation only took place when the corridor was NOT INVOLVED. That insignificant strip of coastline was among the most important pieces of Polish territory - arguably the most important, period. No amount of Lithuanian or Czechoslovak territory could possibly have replaced it, because it was irreplaceable*.

*okay, I'm simplifying things a bit. There was precisely one possible replacement for the thin northern segment of the corridor, and that was the city of Danzig.