Largest Possible Mexican Cession

I've been doing some research on this, but I want the almighty AH.com to weigh in.

So most everybody knows about the Mexican-American war and the Mexican Cession (and later Gadsden Purchase) which gave the US California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and acknowledged US control of all of Texas (with the Rio Grande border, not the Nueces border).

I'm trying to think of the scenario with the biggest possible Mexican Cession.

The land Polk and his administration wanted from Mexico:

A lot of land, right?

However, apparently there was this guy, Nicholas Trist, who was an American diplomat. The US government wanted him to come back to Washington, as they were not satisfied with him, but he stayed and negotiated the Treaty of Guadelupe Hildago, which gave the US this land (considerably less than it wanted):



Trist was fired, obviously.

Lastly, some info from How The States Got Their Shapes:

Basically, the negotiators demanded Baja California, but the Mexicans feared an American presence on their west as well as their north, and wouldn't give in. So instead, they ceded San Diego and sufficient land to protect it.



Basically, I'm wondering this: How big could the Mexican Cession get? One of the biggest problems would be the new Hispanophone population (and slavery, but ignore the peculiar institution for the time being). Here's a population density map from Mexico today. The northern parts of Mexico still don't have that many people (ignore Baja California (the northern one) because the "Tijuana boom" didn't occure for a while.)



So yeah, how big could Mexico get?

(My apologies for the gigantic maps, but I needed them to convey my point. Sorry)

I thought that California and the Southwest was the intial objective and that negotiators in Mexico hammered out the treaty before the new demands could reach the front. If you have negotiations drag on even further, then Washington might squeeze Mexico for more land; Baja and Sonora maybe.

Probably every province along the current border, maybe with some revisions in the west.

PariahNihil said:

Probably every province along the current border, maybe with some revisions in the west.

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Yep! This was exactly what Gadsden went to negotiate for after the war. We could have very probably had it, too, if he hadn't gone and insulted the entirety of Mexico.

Well....

I've always thought that, if things had gone just a little differently(i.e. lessened Southern, and greater Northern, support for Manifest Destiny), we might have at least gotten Sonora and a few chunks of Baja Calif., on top of our other gains, and possibiy all the way down to every other territory north of Jalisco, Zacatecas, Potosi, and Veracruz; but that'd be it, though, as I don't think we'd have quite been able to swallow all of Mexico in one sitting for various reasons(besides, the planters would've already been pissed off as it is; any expansion beyond Sonora and parts of B.C. would probably have required at least the partial approval of the Wilmot Proviso or it's ATL equivalent, to get the North on board.).

There was a very big movement OTL to annex all of Mexico. It was an insane idea, was fiercely opposed by just about everyone, and wouldn't have lasted very long in all likelihood, but it was on the table.

personally, i think that the largest more relaistic annexation would be that Baja California goes along with Alta and joins the Union

For the sake of discussion, let's say a different diplomat goes, and the US gets down to Baja, Sonora, Chihuahua, and what was the Republic of the Rio Grande. All that becomes US Territory, and at the time was sparsely populated. How does that develop, and how does that affect the US, if in any way, over the following 160+ years, in your opinion?

oshron said:

personally, i think that the largest more relaistic annexation would be that Baja California goes along with Alta and joins the Union

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This is pretty much it in my eyes. Not many realize the Mexican Cession is already pretty huge.

A Trist-less negotiation sees the first map, maybe all of Sinaloa too.

*hisssss*
*hissssssssssssss*
*HISSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS*

Anyways, the most the US could get IMO is up to Sinaloa, and maybe not even that since then the slave states would be hopelessly outnumbered. Maybe Baja and the Rio Grande states?

JJohnson said:

For the sake of discussion, let's say a different diplomat goes, and the US gets down to Baja, Sonora, Chihuahua, and what was the Republic of the Rio Grande. All that becomes US Territory, and at the time was sparsely populated. How does that develop, and how does that affect the US, if in any way, over the following 160+ years, in your opinion?

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I suspect it would largely be the domain of the military fighting Indians, and the central government would largely ignore it until substantial Anglophone white populations emerge. Local Hispanophone leaders would be left alone to manage their affairs largely.
Also, there would certainly be no slavery unless Southern whites managed to somehow achieve majorities very rapidly. The locals would not tolerate it, and most of the land is not suited for plantation style agriculture as I recall.

Helios Ra said:

I suspect it would largely be the domain of the military fighting Indians, and the central government would largely ignore it until substantial Anglophone white populations emerge. Local Hispanophone leaders would be left alone to manage their affairs largely.
Also, there would certainly be no slavery unless Southern whites managed to somehow achieve majorities very rapidly. The locals would not tolerate it, and most of the land is not suited for plantation style agriculture as I recall.

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Yeah, that makes sense to me, personally.

Fedelede said:

*hisssss*
*hissssssssssssss*
*HISSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS*

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This is the best response.

Zmflavius said:

There was a very big movement OTL to annex all of Mexico. It was an insane idea, was fiercely opposed by just about everyone, and wouldn't have lasted very long in all likelihood, but it was on the table.

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How was it 'very big' if 'just about everyone' opposed it? In reality it was a very small, moderately vocal minority. That's the only reason it's even remembered in history (but it was always shrugged off).

JJohnson said:

For the sake of discussion, let's say a different diplomat goes, and the US gets down to Baja, Sonora, Chihuahua, and what was the Republic of the Rio Grande. All that becomes US Territory, and at the time was sparsely populated. How does that develop, and how does that affect the US, if in any way, over the following 160+ years, in your opinion?

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It's four more states (California's split, Rio Grande, Chihuahua, Sonora), quite a few million more people, better quality of life for them… It's a pretty big difference.

And border control happens much differently TTL.

The enterity of Mexico was occupied. The American flag flew in Mexico City for like a whole year.

The US could have gotten whatever it wanted, full annexation if they wanted. What exactly could the Mexicans do? Refuse? Guerilla warfare? They were and would be at each other's throat for the next 70 years, unlikely they could have built a united front

Tallest Skil said:

How was it 'very big' if 'just about everyone' opposed it? In reality it was a very small, moderately vocal minority. That's the only reason it's even remembered in history (but it was always shrugged off).

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Possibly not the best choice of words on my part. That's basically what I meant.

Arcvalons said:

What exactly could the Mexicans do? Refuse?

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Yes.

Guerrilla warfare?

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Absolutely.

They were and would be at each other's throat for the next 70 years, unlikely they could have built a united front

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Well, when the entirety of your country has been taken over by another, I'm pretty sure you can find common ground. See also: the Race of the World War books. "Yeah, you're pretty much my worst nightmare, 'dolfy 'ol boy, but apparently my nightmares think otherwise."

They were literally fighting and couping each other as Americans poured from the north and the coast. Dozens of cities gave up without a fight.

I wonder how the United States would handle the insurgency of the Maya separatists in the Yucatan who managed to last until the 1930s fighting against the Mexican government. Would the US actually bother to send troops to die fighting Indians in the hot, disease-ridden jungle?