WI: China never implements the One-Child policy

Joseph Solis in Australia · Mar 3, 2013

Let say that China has never implements the One-Child policy in 1980 and let the increasing income among the workers as a natural contraceptive or China promotes human labor export elsewhere to lessen its pressure on depleting water or food resources.

Would China and the rest of the world far better off with extra 400 million Chinese scattered elsewhere?

BBadolato · Mar 3, 2013

Had a discussion on this in College. If China didn't implement the One-Child policy somewhere down the line they would have to deal with the effects of overpopulation.

Unconsensual · Mar 3, 2013

Well that's assuming that they don't engage in population control at all. It's more a question of degree since they did use the usual tools of population control (social pressure, providing contraception, and family planning education) in addition to the one-child policy.

nooblet · Mar 3, 2013

Overpopulation my ass.

vasp · Mar 3, 2013

The one child policy have had a very minor effect on the population so population wise not a big difference. Their are many factors that all together help keep fertility rate down the one child policy is only a very small part of it.

RousseauX · Mar 3, 2013

Joseph Solis in Australia said:
Let say that China has never implements the One-Child policy in 1980 and let the increasing income among the workers as a natural contraceptive or China promotes human labor export elsewhere to lessen its pressure on depleting water or food resources.

Would China and the rest of the world far better off with extra 400 million Chinese scattered elsewhere?

It wouldn't be, "extra 400 million" is almost certainly based on pretty much constant population growth as % of population. In other words, you are really underestimating how much fertility rates fall as income/capita rises.

RousseauX · Mar 3, 2013

Unconsensual said:
Well that's assuming that they don't engage in population control at all. It's more a question of degree since they did use the usual tools of population control (social pressure, providing contraception, and family planning education) in addition to the one-child policy.

Increasing education level for women (which the Communists were doing anyway), and shunting away active policies to promote growth alone would lead to large drops in fertility rate. Brazil is a pretty good example of this, where birth rate/women have fallen to something like 1/3 of its 1960 level with no enforced population control whatsoever. Simply put the "population bomb" thesis of the 1970s have turned to be completely unfounded in reality.

LeX · Mar 3, 2013

China might have an extra 1-2 hundred million young people. It would probably be a good thing considering that the OTL PRC is now facing an aging populace as well as exaggerated effects of female infanticide.

iddt3 · Mar 3, 2013

LeoXiao said:
China might have an extra 1-2 hundred million young people. It would probably be a good thing considering that the OTL PRC is now facing an aging populace as well as exaggerated effects of female infanticide.

Yeah a more even gender balance would e worth the extra population.

LeX · Mar 3, 2013

On the other hand, these extra children would probably be mostly born into poor families, so it could put extra strain on China's economy.

The Kiat · Mar 3, 2013

How would their economy look without the policy? With only one child to raise, parents have spare resources that can be used to purchase non-essentials, which is a big driver in industries.

iori · Mar 3, 2013

The population would likely be 1.52 billion rather than 1.35 billion, the Han would make-up a slightly larger chunk of the population (the OCP targets Urbanites and Han), their would'nt be some of the social problems China's presently facing and the Aging of China would be going slower.

BigWillyG · Mar 3, 2013

RousseauX said:
Increasing education level for women (which the Communists were doing anyway), and shunting away active policies to promote growth alone would lead to large drops in fertility rate. Brazil is a pretty good example of this, where birth rate/women have fallen to something like 1/3 of its 1960 level with no enforced population control whatsoever. Simply put the "population bomb" thesis of the 1970s have turned to be completely unfounded in reality.

Yeah. Everything I've read about China's population issues comes from them almost over night going from some of the most pro-natalist policies in the world to the one Child policy. That seriously messed with their demographics. Avoiding both extremes leads to China having a more natural population pyramid with population growth slowing with increased education and economic development.

Unconsensual · Mar 3, 2013

LeoXiao said:
On the other hand, these extra children would probably be mostly born into poor families, so it could put extra strain on China's economy.

Well... that's assuming that the poor families in rural China cared about the one child policy in the first place. From personal observation ,inference from the shoddy quality of the statistics bureau , and inference at the corruption with officials I wouldn't be surprised if it the law was violated consistently.

The Kiat said:
How would their economy look without the policy? With only one child to raise, parents have spare resources that can be used to purchase non-essentials, which is a big driver in industries.

Not necessarily, the biggest investment of middle income families goes into their children's education: you might even see less consumption since education is in a way an investment with delayed returns. Also if you look at the beginnings of Chinese growth a good deal of which was powered by Taiwanese investors (due to proximity, cultural similarity, and all that stuff) and thus unaffected by domestic consumption.

RousseauX said:
Snip.

That's one thing that communism seems to get right consistently; they were pretty good with their gender equality.

Otis R. Needleman · Mar 3, 2013

The Kiat said:
How would their economy look without the policy? With only one child to raise, parents have spare resources that can be used to purchase non-essentials, which is a big driver in industries.

Here's the REAL problem with the one-child policy. China has no American-style Social Security program for their elderly. The children are the parents' primary support in old age, as a rule.

A child from a one-child family marries the child of another one-child family. Assuming both work, they may well need to support four parents, themselves, and their child. Not all jobs in China pay enough to make this happen easily. Many jobs in China pay poorly and the couple may not be able to help their parents. What happens then?

The aging Chinese population, coupled with the effects of the one-child policy, is starting to bite China in the ass with fangs of steel. Wonder what Beijing is going to do.