Suppose that the Apartheid government of South Africa, when it realized that apartheid was dying, decided to craft out a white rump state on the Cape, carry out a population transfer (move all whites to the Cape and ethnically cleanse blacks from the Cape), and then leave the rest to the ANC? What are the chances it could have happened, and what would have been the result?
WI: South African White Rump State?
- Thread starter Armored Diplomacy
- Start date
Yeah, a few people here mentioned something like that could happen, possibly after a civil war erupts.
I'd call it possible but highly unlikely, of course. The idea that South Africa could erupt in a race war is a popular one, but the simple fact is that the ANC and its soldiers could not have defeated the SADF in a straight-up battle. South Africa gave up apartheid because they worked out deals that assured their survival in a nation with majority rule. Don't do that, apartheid doesn't end.
What makes the idea possible is the fact that South Africa's mixed-race population stood with the whites in the 1990s, in large part out of fear that Mandela would be another dictator. The combined population of the two groups in South Africa in the early 1990s is about 8 million, and they are a demographic majority in nearly all of the former Cape Colony, which outside of Cape Town and its immediate environs is fairly sparsely populated. If South Africa's black population and government goes out and tries to run the whites out in the 1990s, the first thing they will get is an immediate (and very, very nasty - we're talking six-figure body count here) response from the SADF to try and put the resistance down, and should that fail completely, a withdrawal out of the Transvaal, Free State and much of Natal, though the SADF would probably try to secure Johannesburg (for the infrastructure), Durban, Port Shepstone and Port Elizabeth (for the ports and terminals) and the Cape Colony areas where the people supporting them form an outright majority. Joburg and Pretoria are effectively indefensible, so I suspect that the SADF, probably backed up by a huge number of drafted volunteers, would hold out in Johannesburg just long enough to take everything they could out of it, then bail down the highway to Durban.
Durban is going to be the second place where a mess rules. Keeping it allows South Africa to control much of the exports of southern Africa, and for that reason, and the Indian population who lives there (not liked by the black African tribes much either), the SADF would want to keep Durban and Pietermaritzburg up the road. That would be very hard to do, but probably possible, if the SADF can secure the coastline in their favor.
Cape Town will see problems early, but after that not much. I'm not sure whether they'd kick out the black populations on the Cape Flats - part of me says that vengeance would say yes, but another part of me would think that as they would be a small minority and it would serve lots of good PR purposes not to boot them that they would be allowed to stay, though those kicked out of the rest of South Africa probably would not be too kind to them. Either way, a rump RSA remains, capital undoubtedly in Cape Town and with nothing but animosity for the groups that kicked them out of land perceived to be theirs. Over time, South Africa would probably see its black neighboring nations rather like Israel sees the other Arab states.
What makes the idea possible is the fact that South Africa's mixed-race population stood with the whites in the 1990s, in large part out of fear that Mandela would be another dictator. The combined population of the two groups in South Africa in the early 1990s is about 8 million, and they are a demographic majority in nearly all of the former Cape Colony, which outside of Cape Town and its immediate environs is fairly sparsely populated. If South Africa's black population and government goes out and tries to run the whites out in the 1990s, the first thing they will get is an immediate (and very, very nasty - we're talking six-figure body count here) response from the SADF to try and put the resistance down, and should that fail completely, a withdrawal out of the Transvaal, Free State and much of Natal, though the SADF would probably try to secure Johannesburg (for the infrastructure), Durban, Port Shepstone and Port Elizabeth (for the ports and terminals) and the Cape Colony areas where the people supporting them form an outright majority. Joburg and Pretoria are effectively indefensible, so I suspect that the SADF, probably backed up by a huge number of drafted volunteers, would hold out in Johannesburg just long enough to take everything they could out of it, then bail down the highway to Durban.
Durban is going to be the second place where a mess rules. Keeping it allows South Africa to control much of the exports of southern Africa, and for that reason, and the Indian population who lives there (not liked by the black African tribes much either), the SADF would want to keep Durban and Pietermaritzburg up the road. That would be very hard to do, but probably possible, if the SADF can secure the coastline in their favor.
Cape Town will see problems early, but after that not much. I'm not sure whether they'd kick out the black populations on the Cape Flats - part of me says that vengeance would say yes, but another part of me would think that as they would be a small minority and it would serve lots of good PR purposes not to boot them that they would be allowed to stay, though those kicked out of the rest of South Africa probably would not be too kind to them. Either way, a rump RSA remains, capital undoubtedly in Cape Town and with nothing but animosity for the groups that kicked them out of land perceived to be theirs. Over time, South Africa would probably see its black neighboring nations rather like Israel sees the other Arab states.
And I'm assuming this new rump state would be heavily militarized, right?
Think the ANC would try to take it? Or sanctions would be lifted if they lifted apartheid restrictions on their black minority?
Think the ANC would try to take it? Or sanctions would be lifted if they lifted apartheid restrictions on their black minority?
Cook
Banned
The National Party moved away from Apartheid because sanctions were biting and the economy was tanking, the writing was most emphatically on the wall; there was no long term future to a White minority ruled South Africa. South Africa’s economy, even during the apartheid era was connected to the global economy, particularly when it came to their mining industry.
How though? Apartheid South Africa during the final years had serious problems with people moving permanently overseas rather than do national service, they also faced block obsolescence of major military equipment and no means of importing the advance technology items that would have allowed them to maintain a capability edge over their black neighbors to make up for the numerical edge of the latter. Even without the inevitable embargo on arms that such a state would face, a rump Afrikaan state, deprived of the mining wealth of the black dominated regions, would be too short of foreign capital to buy even if they could find someone willing to sell.
This is true, but they still had to get assurances from the ANC that they would not be persecuted in the post-apartheid South Africa. If those assurances had not been given (and giving them, it should be pointed out, constituted tossing a sizeable portion of the ANC's Freedom Charter) apartheid may not exist now, but it definitely would not have ended peacefully. Apartheid lasted considerably longer than it would have had economics been the only important part of it.
Perhaps, but perhaps not. I'm not anticipating this rump state being exclusively for Afrikaners or even just whites, as they would surely be supported in such actions by South Africa's Colored and Indian populations who would invariably demand, and get, equal rights in return for their support of the same cause. South Africa was gradually drifting that way long before apartheid ended. As far as economy goes, one only has to look at Israel to see that not having mineral wealth would mean bupkis to a nation being able to survive - and while a fair bit of SA's military equipment would indeed be obsolescent by the 1990s, it wouldn't be different for the black states around them, so it wouldn't matter all that much - and more to the point, SA's domestic arms industry was quite advanced. The loss of the mines on the highveld would be a huge problem, yes, but it wouldn't be a crippling one. I would also very much expect that as Kimberley would be within this new state (the city is quite diverse, but the geographic area is overwhelmingly mixed-race) there would still be mining diamonds, as well as the northern Cape area still also being home to a number of other resources - copper, iron ore and uranium among others. There is a considerable amount of industry in the region, and as the whites in South Africa in most cases have fairly good education, they also have a considerable amount of skills to use to their advantage.
Why the Cape? Aside from the other points raised about the likelihood of the diehards trying to build an apartheid stronghold, the location doesn't seem to be plausible either. If an Afrikaaner group were going to try to ignore the outside world then they were going to do it in the Afrikaaner heartland - up in the Transvaal or in the Free State. They aren't going to want to migrate to the Cape or Natal where the despised liberal 'English' and 'coloured' communities are. People don't think that way, even the nutters. The Boer treks and the record of the AWB in the 1980s show the approach any breakaway would take. The hardliners would seek to setup their own republic in what they would see as 'their' lands, amongst 'their' people. The Cape, and any theories about wanting to hack out a new home elsewhere just because it's closer to the sea (or any other strategic consideration) will be very unappealing to them. These are ultraconservatives you're talking about here, they would want to set up their new country in what they see as 'their' homeland.
Ancientone
Banned
Relatively wealthy people with transferable skills have no interest in civil wars, neither were people with established businesses, jobs, farms etc. about to uproot and move 1600km when they could just as easily move 6000km to Australia, Europe or other enticing places.
Mentally deficient people as personified by the AWB, the HNP and a handful of dreamers with no skills and no wealth did however show an interest.
The concept of a "White Homeland" was floated as early as 1975 to my knowledge as "The Republic of the Cape of Good Hope" and popped up now and again as various people engaged in intellectual masturbation. The problam is that however you scribble a felt tip pen around parts of the map of South Africa there is no viable, contiguous mini state that works except for a group of flat-earthers who have an ambition to revert to the subsistence, agricultural lifestyle of an 1840s pioneer.
Here is the "Freedom Front's" planned homeland which apart from Kimberley seems to consist mainly of Karoo and a bit of Boland.
So if the "Whites" retreat to the Western Cape, what do they do for industry, 65% of which is located in the old PWV area, 15% in the Eastern Cape and less than 10% in the Western Cape? How do they feed the population?
Most important, if all the White folk suddenly "Escape to the Cape", who keeps the lights on in the rest of the country? The ANC couldn't do that in 2008 even with Whitey still around!
Mentally deficient people as personified by the AWB, the HNP and a handful of dreamers with no skills and no wealth did however show an interest.
The concept of a "White Homeland" was floated as early as 1975 to my knowledge as "The Republic of the Cape of Good Hope" and popped up now and again as various people engaged in intellectual masturbation. The problam is that however you scribble a felt tip pen around parts of the map of South Africa there is no viable, contiguous mini state that works except for a group of flat-earthers who have an ambition to revert to the subsistence, agricultural lifestyle of an 1840s pioneer.
Here is the "Freedom Front's" planned homeland which apart from Kimberley seems to consist mainly of Karoo and a bit of Boland.
So if the "Whites" retreat to the Western Cape, what do they do for industry, 65% of which is located in the old PWV area, 15% in the Eastern Cape and less than 10% in the Western Cape? How do they feed the population?
Most important, if all the White folk suddenly "Escape to the Cape", who keeps the lights on in the rest of the country? The ANC couldn't do that in 2008 even with Whitey still around!
well main issue is this:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...Africa_2001_dominant_population_group_map.svg
outside of cities there is not a white majority
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...Africa_2001_dominant_population_group_map.svg
outside of cities there is not a white majority
Ancientone
Banned
@The Mann
Kimberley has not been a significant commercial diamond producing area since 1919, although a few tiny commercial operations lasted until about 2000 and casual diggers continue to this day--but it is not something that one could make a living from. Most of the gold mines in Gauteng have closed and those around Welkom are now marginal which is why SA's share of gold production has declined to 10-12% or world production, despite having 40-50% of deposits. The family jewels are Platinum, Chrome, Vanadium, coal and iron ore all outside the Cape and all of which would require the expertise of the same mine managers, miners, financial institutions and investors who currently operate them.
Kimberley has not been a significant commercial diamond producing area since 1919, although a few tiny commercial operations lasted until about 2000 and casual diggers continue to this day--but it is not something that one could make a living from. Most of the gold mines in Gauteng have closed and those around Welkom are now marginal which is why SA's share of gold production has declined to 10-12% or world production, despite having 40-50% of deposits. The family jewels are Platinum, Chrome, Vanadium, coal and iron ore all outside the Cape and all of which would require the expertise of the same mine managers, miners, financial institutions and investors who currently operate them.
I have some statistics somewhere, but what I can remember is:
- 9% of the entire continents GDP is generated in Gauteng (JoBurg, Pretoria, Ekurhuleni).
- Eastgate's turnover (rather good-sized shopping mall) is comparable to the entire GDP of Zambia.
65% of all telephones on the continent are located in SA
So, we are talking big stuff.
Now, why would anybody move out of JoBurg and set up shop somewhere in the Cape? I wouldn't.
The entire process of CODESSA was exactly to map out a common future.
If no common future could have been mapped out and a race war was on the horizon, it would have been a trek away from SA, not to create a laager somewhere.
As it turned out, Mandela was not into a race war, neither was FW de Klerk ambitious in creating a whites-only land.
As it was, everybody was tired of apartheid, we had the "no to conscription" campaign. The "army out of township" campaign, etc. So, by and large, as also the white referendum proved, we moved forward.
It is also a bit of a myth that Afrikaaners are all in favour of apartheid and all voted NP. AWB's leadership had a lot of English-speaking and also a lot of emigrants. (After all, Chris Hani was hit by a pole. Yes, a Polish national, I mean. Not literally hit by a pole, OK)
Insofar as National Party (the bad one's yes) merged with ANC also sort of guaranteed that the whole thing cooled off.
Of course we have Orania - the whites-only home land (or municipal area, really). Very amusing, but not really main stream.
So, by and large. Not plausible. sorry.
Ivan
- 9% of the entire continents GDP is generated in Gauteng (JoBurg, Pretoria, Ekurhuleni).
- Eastgate's turnover (rather good-sized shopping mall) is comparable to the entire GDP of Zambia.
65% of all telephones on the continent are located in SA
So, we are talking big stuff.
Now, why would anybody move out of JoBurg and set up shop somewhere in the Cape? I wouldn't.
The entire process of CODESSA was exactly to map out a common future.
If no common future could have been mapped out and a race war was on the horizon, it would have been a trek away from SA, not to create a laager somewhere.
As it turned out, Mandela was not into a race war, neither was FW de Klerk ambitious in creating a whites-only land.
As it was, everybody was tired of apartheid, we had the "no to conscription" campaign. The "army out of township" campaign, etc. So, by and large, as also the white referendum proved, we moved forward.
It is also a bit of a myth that Afrikaaners are all in favour of apartheid and all voted NP. AWB's leadership had a lot of English-speaking and also a lot of emigrants. (After all, Chris Hani was hit by a pole. Yes, a Polish national, I mean. Not literally hit by a pole, OK)
Insofar as National Party (the bad one's yes) merged with ANC also sort of guaranteed that the whole thing cooled off.
Of course we have Orania - the whites-only home land (or municipal area, really). Very amusing, but not really main stream.
So, by and large. Not plausible. sorry.
Ivan
Actually, at the time it was seriously talked about. The status quo was clearly untenable, and a negotiated democratic settlement required goodwill on both sides. Thank God for Nelson Mandela and Desmond Tutu, for their charity and wisdom, an de Klerk, that he woke up and smelled the roses.
Iirc, its considered the most likely option in Micheners 'the covenant' by at least some of the characters in the book.
Iirc, its considered the most likely option in Micheners 'the covenant' by at least some of the characters in the book.
Not really, it was never that seriously discussed, apart from a lunatic fringe.
Quoted for truth.
As you rightly note Hani's assassin was a Polish immigrant, while the other conspirator was a descendant of British immigrants.
IMHO it could have been done - if started in the fifties. The logistics and planning to smoothly do this, would have been awesome in their complexity - moving factories, people, national treasure (the entire national treasure would have to be relocated, from gold bullion to paintings to archives). You would also have to do it under virtual martial law conditions, with huge disruptions to network and in peoples lives. The average white would not, I think, have tolerated it. The blacks even less so, so it would have ended in conflict. And the cost of it failing is unimaginable
By the 1950s it is probably already too late, and I might be wrong, but Joburg was probably already the most important and populous city by then.
There is a conspiracy theory that Verwoerd was planning on announcing the partition of the country in Parliament, but before he could give the speech one Dmitri Tsafendas stabbed him. A copy of that speech has never been found...
I think that goes into the idea of grand apartheid, which Verwoerd very much believed in - shit, it was partly his idea. South Africa's plans for the bantustans were not exactly for them to be autonomous provinces of South Africa, they wanted them to be places for the black population to go, so that the rest of South Africa would be white.