DYNAMIC EAST ASIA

Hi all, I might be newest member...
I thrilled to be part of this wonderful community...
I live in Mongolia, the land of Chingis Khaan...

When you look at history, the Europe was never united or dominted by one power (ok, after Roman Empire)...
But on the other side of World Island the East Asia almost always was dominted by one power, Han chinese or Mongols or Manchus or Japanese....
What if East Asia was divided into several Empires When Europeans began to open them...

Here is East Asia around 1800's...

East Asia Map.jpg
 
I would say even more crazy thing...

Now think Japanese opened Pacific Canada and North Pacific US coasts...

How would played WWI and WWII
 
Welcome to the board!

To keep China divided up is a tough one (the whole mandate of heaven thing, someone would always try to reunite it), but not that difficult.

About WW1 or WW2 those would be butterflied away, the world would be completely different (global wars may happen, but not as we know them).

On Japanese in America I don't think any East Asian power would feel the need to explore east (since Europe has little to offer them, so why search for a shortcut to reach it?), but maybe after the Europeans discover it (and american resources become famous), it may happen.
 
Welcome. It's nice to see another member interested in East Asian history.

To begin, although China, along with several outsider dynasties, namely the Yuan and Qing, along with possibly the Sui and Tang, which ruled from China Proper, maintained general hegemonies within East Asia during their existences, this was not necessarily the case if you look at the history as a whole.

From around 500 BC to 1270 AD, there was a general balance of power among North China, South China, (North) Central Asia (Xiongnu, Xianbei, Mongol, etc), (South) Central Asia (Tibet), Manchuria, Korea, and Southeast Asia (Nanzhao, Dali). The borders and entities certainly shifted over time, but at one point, the alliance against China was strong enough to bring the Sui down, while the Han fought the Xiongnu for 200+ years. Later, when the Tang attempted to extend its control further, it was destabilized due to the An Shi Rebellion, and eventually lost control of Central Asia, as generals in that region with access to large armies had become independent of the government.

The balance of power was weakened and shifted drastically after 1270, but continued occasionally soon afterward, specifically among China (Ming), (North) Central Asia (Northern Yuan, Zunghar, etc), (South) Central Asia (Tibet), Manchuria (Jurchen/Manchu), Korea (Joseon), and Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Champa, etc).

Anyway, the map as a whole looks relatively reasonable, but assuming that the PoD occurs between 1350 and 1600, a few changes are probably necessary. Given the population within each region, the Ming should not exist in that situation, due to the populations within each region. However, China can probably be divided into a northern and southern entity in ideal conditions. The Mongols might retain that empire for a while, but succession issues would potentially destabilize the state, while Russia would probably attempt to take most of the western regions. Tibet and Uyghur look reasonable, although the three Central Asian states will probably frequently clash with each other.

Joseon looks reasonable, but essentially requires butterflying the Manchu away, as the Jurchen/Manchu strongholds were in Southern Manchuria. As a result, many of the clans would be assimilated into Joseon, and although any remnants might attempt to escape north, they would probably not establish a state due to the geography and climate. Meanwhile Joseon would probably attempt to expand into the rest of Southern Manchuria within a century or two before 1800 or so. Joseon's capital is also located too far north, as the population in that region would not be as established, so it should probably be located in or near what is now Pyongyang.

Japan would need to first consolidate its holdings in Hokkaido and the Ryukyu Islands for at least a few decades around 1750-1850 before attempting to expand into what is now Sakhalin and Taiwan, while the Zhou will not be happy with losing the latter. Having it expand further into the Americas is close to impossible due to the large distance involved, although it could theoretically establish very minor settlements before they are eventually incorporated into other states.
 
Hi MonAngel

Saw your map and thought I'd do a take on it with the worlda basemap. Kazakh and Kyrgyz borders have been butterflied though they're still probably too convergent for the Roman Empire POD you wanted.

dynamiceastasia.png
 
Hi MonAngel

Saw your map and thought I'd do a take on it with the worlda basemap. Kazakh and Kyrgyz borders have been butterflied though they're still probably too convergent for the Roman Empire POD you wanted.

The Roman Empire was probably mentioned as a general European hegemonic analogy to China, not to a specific reference to the PoD, although both were involved in maintaining a balance of power. Otherwise, the states' identities and borders, which need some tweaking in order to be more realistic, make less sense.
 
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You probably should adjust the Kazakh border a bit. It was historically a creation of the USSR in the 20th century, and does not accurately reflect, well, anything.
 
Thanks for your replies....

I thought about creating TL with Realpolitik in East Asia, e.g maintaining Balance of Power...

Welcome. It's nice to see another member interested in East Asian history.

To begin, although China, along with several outsider dynasties, namely the Yuan and Qing, along with possibly the Sui and Tang, which ruled from China Proper, maintained general hegemonies within East Asia during their existences, this was not necessarily the case if you look at the history as a whole.

I agree, till fall of Goguryeo there was well working balance of power between Turkic Empire, Tang Dynasty and Goguryeo..
North and South China was pretty much like Ukraine and Russia... As for Cantonese they was linguistically different until Mao...

So it is more than possible...

My POD will be just after death of Great Khaan Mongke. Ariq Boqe and Kubilai will be in stalemate, so around 1270 Chingis Empire will be divided as OTL, except there will be Yuan Dynasty on Northern China and Mongol Empire on Mongolian plain. Because Gorye assisted Kubilai during civil war they will receive former Goguryeo land as a reward.
So you will lay foundation and if we can play good Realpolitik in East Asia, then we can create my Map pretty realistically...

You probably should adjust the Kazakh border a bit. It was historically a creation of the USSR in the 20th century, and does not accurately reflect, well, anything.

Before Ivan Terrible expansion the Land of lower reaches of Volga was in the hand of Tatar Khanates... So Current Kazakhstan border is pretty much realistic.. After fall of Golden Horde and Chagataid Khanates Mongolian Empire will sure expand to current Kazakhstan land, since they are cut of from East Asia thanks to Realpolitik...
 
I'm not sure what you're trying to say here about realpolitick and its influences on things happening in this timeline. As opposed to what?
 
Thanks for your replies....

Before Ivan Terrible expansion the Land of lower reaches of Volga was in the hand of Tatar Khanates... So Current Kazakhstan border is pretty much realistic.. After fall of Golden Horde and Chagataid Khanates Mongolian Empire will sure expand to current Kazakhstan land, since they are cut of from East Asia thanks to Realpolitik...

Although there is no problem with having a border in the same area as the modern Kazakhstan border, having the exact same border as the one on the modern map will look silly. I would recommend against it.

That border is actually a bit of a joke, you see:
http://wiki.alternatehistory.com/doku.php/alternate_history/that_damned_kazakh_border

So if you keep that border, you are signaling to everyone that this timeline is more of a joke than a serious idea.
 
Although there is no problem with having a border in the same area as the modern Kazakhstan border, having the exact same border as the one on the modern map will look silly. I would recommend against it.

That border is actually a bit of a joke, you see:
http://wiki.alternatehistory.com/doku.php/alternate_history/that_damned_kazakh_border

So if you keep that border, you are signaling to everyone that this timeline is more of a joke than a serious idea.

I won't argue it is best border but any idea and suggestions...

As for western Kazakhstan border it pretty much will be as OTL Kazakhstan with minor land here and there would go both side... Because Russians will surely expand through Volga river means they will sure take Astrakhan they will fortify it and will be happy untill European expansion is dead end... So Mongolian and Russian border will set something between Volga and Ural, so i took current Kazakhstan border...
After Astrakhan, Russian expansion is just some Cossacks' expeditions not really conquest... So Cossacks' will just submit wild lands... So you give Russians wild Western Siberia while Mongolia will take more populated Southern Siberia, so you take what is best available means current Kazakhstan border...

If you have any better idea I would more than happy to welcome...
 
I'm not sure what you're trying to say here about realpolitick and its influences on things happening in this timeline. As opposed to what?

For Realpolitki I'm mean no one wants hegemonic power and keeping Balance of power on East Asia, so when one is sure to dominate others will have united resistance against one who dominate.
 
Thanks for your replies....

No problem.

I thought about creating TL with Realpolitik in East Asia, e.g maintaining Balance of Power...

That's fine.

I agree, till fall of Goguryeo there was well working balance of power between Turkic Empire, Tang Dynasty and Goguryeo..
North and South China was pretty much like Ukraine and Russia... As for Cantonese they was linguistically different until Mao...

So it is more than possible...

Yes, but my point was that the general balance of power lasted long into the 16th century. For example, Balhae held out against Silla and the Tang as the Turks regained strength, while both Goryeo and the Song repulsed the Liao as well, and the Jin were unable to expand into South China. Ironically, China only managed to gain a definite hegemony over its neighbors during the Yuan and Qing, both of which were founded by outsiders. The latter also allowed China to eventually retake territory in Inner Mongolia, Manchuria, Yunnan, Xinjiang (East Turkestan), and Tibet, all of which had been considered outside of Chinese control or border regions during the Ming. In other words, it's certainly possible to keep what is now China divided among multiple entities, although working the details out will be difficult.

Also, Cantonese was a dialect that began to diverge from the standard one during the Tang's existence. The currently spoken form of Mandarin is actually a very simplified form of the original one that was spoken over 2,000 years ago, as it lost almost all of the consonant finals, while Cantonese retained many of them. In other words, there was a gradual divergence over many centuries, which explains how the dialects can be so similar and different at the same time.

My POD will be just after death of Great Khaan Mongke. Ariq Boqe and Kubilai will be in stalemate, so around 1270 Chingis Empire will be divided as OTL, except there will be Yuan Dynasty on Northern China and Mongol Empire on Mongolian plain. Because Gorye assisted Kubilai during civil war they will receive former Goguryeo land as a reward.
So you will lay foundation and if we can play good Realpolitik in East Asia, then we can create my Map pretty realistically...

That's fine, but the Sambyeolcho Rebellion occurred from 1270-3, so any military assistance from Goryeo would be extremely limited or non-existent. The military had constantly opposed the Mongol campaigns to the point where the court and the public had been willing to surrender, and although the ruler finally managed to send an ambassador, some aristocrats still pushed for an aggressive stance. Meanwhile, the remnants of the army and navy decided to revolt and impose a blockade, which was not lifted until a combined Mongol-Goryeo alliance finally brought it to an end. In other words, the military's stiff resistance will lead the Mongols to keep a tighter grip on the peninsula in order to prevent further uprisings, while generals in Goryeo will continue to resist Mongol influence until after 1273-5 or so.

IOTL, Goryeo briefly seized Liaodong when the Yuan started to crumble, and it can probably retain its hold for a while if China is not unified under a dynasty by 1360-70 or so.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here about realpolitick and its influences on things happening in this timeline. As opposed to what?

I think that he's just trying to split China into smaller political entities so that a hegemony doesn't exist, although it technically only occurred during the Yuan and Qing, which is certainly possible if you can butterfly away the latter. However, the details need to be worked out thoroughly, which will take some time.
 
That Mongolia is just a state incapable of sustaining itself, it contains so many radically different groups and geographically divided regions that it could never keep itself alive, one incompetent khan (and that is not hard to do) and the whole thing shatters into a billion pieces. Leaving aside the chance that the Khan divides his empire on his death (a popular Mongolian tradition). It also runs into trouble because it would still probably be majority Chinese, a whole bunch of its southern areas where majority ethnically Han and long term holding down a restive urban population like that would draw troops away from holding down the Turkic Muslims in Central Asia who will not like being occupied by Budhist Khans (and they very well could call on the Uyghur state for assistance there).

Since I don't know the POD or what happened in between I can't say your Japan is impossible, but it is highly unlikely. Japan was a technologically inferior backwater for a lot of its history and it is a bit resource poor in a pre-industrial society (their famous folding methods being a way to compensate for Japans inferior Iron). Also them ruling Taiwan seems suspect, Taiwan was never really held down by anyone in this time period, China only gained very tenuous control in the late seventeenth century. I doubt Japan would be able to hold it down long term given the independent streak of its tribal leaders and the Japanese military being largely feudal and based on levies of troops that would be hard to call up against rebellious Austronesians.

China seems okay, although the Ming's fate seems rather merciful there. It is siginifigantly weaker than Great Zhou and its continued existence is rather strange. I doubt the Shun would be willing to support Ming independence (since long term they also want to unite China and the Mings very existince hurts the legitimacy of their dynasty).
 
For Realpolitki I'm mean no one wants hegemonic power and keeping Balance of power on East Asia, so when one is sure to dominate others will have united resistance against one who dominate.

Well, managing to keep that so is going to be tricky. Europe had the benefit that there was no one place (as in, part of the continent) with enough of the resources of power to dominate the continent, meaning that rivals were always able to find ways to maintain their independence.

East Asia is not necessarily so blessed.
 
Before Ivan Terrible expansion the Land of lower reaches of Volga was in the hand of Tatar Khanates... So Current Kazakhstan border is pretty much realistic.. After fall of Golden Horde and Chagataid Khanates Mongolian Empire will sure expand to current Kazakhstan land, since they are cut of from East Asia thanks to Realpolitik...

Normally I'd say fine buuuuut the OTL Kazakh border being utterly unchanged no matter the context is kind of a meme here so:
lolKazakhborder.jpg
 
No problem.


That's fine, but the Sambyeolcho Rebellion occurred from 1270-3, so any military assistance from Goryeo would be extremely limited or non-existent. The military had constantly opposed the Mongol campaigns to the point where the court and the public had been willing to surrender, and although the ruler finally managed to send an ambassador, some aristocrats still pushed for an aggressive stance. Meanwhile, the remnants of the army and navy decided to revolt and impose a blockade, which was not lifted until a combined Mongol-Goryeo alliance finally brought it to an end. In other words, the military's stiff resistance will lead the Mongols to keep a tighter grip on the peninsula in order to prevent further uprisings, while generals in Goryeo will continue to resist Mongol influence until after 1273-5 or so.

Mongolian internal struggle occurred 1260 - 1264. So if Kublai requested Goreyo to assist and promised Liaodong Peninsula, there won't be any Sambyeolcho Rebellion. Bureaucrats and Military will work fine in this situation, which will serve well for their goal. Military will be even more willing to cooperate with Kublai if they can expand Goreyo territory, and i think they might just accept nominally tributary or even vassal status in this case.
 
Mongolian internal struggle occurred 1260 - 1264. So if Kublai requested Goreyo to assist and promised Liaodong Peninsula, there won't be any Sambyeolcho Rebellion. Bureaucrats and Military will work fine in this situation, which will serve well for their goal. Military will be even more willing to cooperate with Kublai if they can expand Goreyo territory, and i think they might just accept nominally tributary or even vassal status in this case.

Yes, but the court still remained divided on exactly how to handle formal relations even after the initial surrender in 1259, and the situation was not definitively resolved until 1273. The military continued to maintain an aggressive stance, as it had retained power for a century, and even forced the ruler to briefly step down in 1269, suggesting that the government was extremely divided at the time. Kublai would also almost certainly not attempt to hand Liaodong over to Goryeo, as the latter would be essentially at Dadu's doorstep if the land transfer occurred. Considering how it took 20 years of repeated requests from Goryeo for the Yuan to finally return the former's northwestern territory south of the Yalu River, I honestly don't see why or how the Khan will attempt to give Goryeo territory north of the river, regardless of the situation involved.

Well, managing to keep that so is going to be tricky. Europe had the benefit that there was no one place (as in, part of the continent) with enough of the resources of power to dominate the continent, meaning that rivals were always able to find ways to maintain their independence.

East Asia is not necessarily so blessed.

Again, a general balance of power occurred for most of East Asia's history, as I stated earlier, with only brief exceptions during the Yuan and Qing. However, the situation was not comparable to that of Europe, and the Qing's dominance later allowed the ROC and PRC to take over most of its former possessions.
 
That Mongolia is just a state incapable of sustaining itself, it contains so many radically different groups and geographically divided regions that it could never keep itself alive, one incompetent khan (and that is not hard to do) and the whole thing shatters into a billion pieces.

In this ATL Mongolian surely will be Muslim country:
1. Until 16th century Buddism doesn't dominate Mongolia.
2. Given Mongolia should absorb all the remnants of Golden Horde and Chagataid Khanate it will give very big mass of Muslim when Mongolia was ready for new religion other than paganism.
So it will give them impulse and legitimacy for Central Asian tribes.
And heck

It also runs into trouble because it would still probably be majority Chinese, a whole bunch of its southern areas where majority ethnically Han and long term holding down a restive urban population like that would draw troops away from holding down the Turkic Muslims in Central Asia who will not like being occupied by Budhist Khans (and they very well could call on the Uyghur state for assistance there)

There wasn't Han Chinese in OTL Inner Mongolia and Northern Manchuria and current Qinhai province till end 18th century. So there won't be majority Chinese population.


Yes there will be fall and rise, but until Russians really pushed (which means late 18th century) there is no one other than Mongolians to dominate this land. So it is very reasonable to Mongolian Empire holding that whole land.
 
Since I don't know the POD or what happened in between I can't say your Japan is impossible, but it is highly unlikely. Japan was a technologically inferior backwater for a lot of its history and it is a bit resource poor in a pre-industrial society (their famous folding methods being a way to compensate for Japans inferior Iron). Also them ruling Taiwan seems suspect, Taiwan was never really held down by anyone in this time period, China only gained very tenuous control in the late seventeenth century. I doubt Japan would be able to hold it down long term given the independent streak of its tribal leaders and the Japanese military being largely feudal and based on levies of troops that would be hard to call up against rebellious Austronesians. .

Taiwan felling in under East Asian maritime power is almost certain. Most likely hypothetical maritime powers are Great Zhou and Japanese. So it was toss between two, and since Japanese were very eager to accommodate western technology and strategy, I give the favor to later...

China seems okay, although the Ming's fate seems rather merciful there. It is siginifigantly weaker than Great Zhou and its continued existence is rather strange. I doubt the Shun would be willing to support Ming independence (since long term they also want to unite China and the Mings very existince hurts the legitimacy of their dynasty).

Actually Ming was Major Dynasty, which occupied land of Great ZHou and Ming. After some time Ming lost Mandate of Heaven and was driven to what it shown on Map. Actually Ming was vassal state of Great Zhou. But After Japan Rise they could play game between Great Zhou and Japan.
 
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