Russia doesn't support Serbia in 1914

Let's say the A-Hs are able to provide proof that the Black Hand provided weapons for the plot to assassinate Franz Ferdinand AND that the Black Hand was run by Serbia's intelligence office, making it too politically toxic to support Serbia in July 1914. So Serbia accepts the Ultimatum given by A-H in its entirety and thus sees the Black Hand dismantled while making Serbia a satellite of A-H, with Russian influence having been destroyed by the episode.

So WW1 doesn't kick off, Franz Ferdinand is dead, and Serbia is neutered as a threat to A-H and instead gets linked to A-H economically, while Russian influence in the Balkans is wiped out. Romania eventually would shift toward the Entente based on its desire to annex Transsylvania, but wasn't interested in joining the Entente officially; still this isn't a client that Russia can influence to the extent they did with Serbia.

A-H is stabilized by the death of Franz Ferdinand and the removal of Serbia as a threat. Instead A-H can focus her attention on the larger enemy of Russia and potentially Italy. What does this mean going forward? The A-Hs and Germans were still encouraging Polish and Ukrainian separatists, though without much success. Is there a potential flash point there? What about Russian long term stability? Can we really say that WW1 has been avoided if war is avoided over the Serbian and Franz Ferdinand issues? The Balkans is going to be locked down for the foreseeable future, so no threat there. Germany is going to have her window to start a war shut by 1916, which will scrap the Schlieffen Plan based on Russian rail construction. France and Germany had no pressing issues, even with the Alsace issue simmering in the political background (within a generation it would no longer be even a simmering issue). Britain and Germany were not longer at immediate odds over anything thanks to the Naval Race ending in 1912 when the Germans stopped passing naval bills.

In the future there could be issues over the completion of the Berlin-Baghdad rail line, the position of Christians in the Ottoman Empire, Russian political instability, A-H political issues upon Franz Josef's death, A-H issues during the 1917 Ausgleich negotiations (the Hungarians wanted defacto independence during that one, which would mean a potential Civil War or at least the occupation of Budapest), or even German issues stemming from Socialist demands for a modern constitution.

What does all this mean folks?

Russia completes its military reforms, thus when war does come along it might just make it through.

The real question with Serbia neutered militarily by Austria-Hungary is, which side would Bulgaria take? Assuming that the Serbian Kingdom would be a Hapsburg satellite by now, Bulgaria still has territorial claims on what is now a Hapsburg satellite state. (ie: Macedonia)

I think that even if Serbia accepted A-H ultimatum that wouldn't be enough to turn Serbia into A-H puppet and distance Serbia from Russia. Serbs would probably somehow muddled trough ultimatum demands and after that business as usual...

The Ottoman armenian/kurdish regions were simmering, almost to a boil, august 1914. A big question is how much do the Russians want to push things and how quick. Now cut out of the Balkans and already cut out of the Pacific by the Japanese, this makes sense as the only place to push. Russia would want to push before the Baghday railway gets completed and the Turkish ecomomy improves with Kurdish oil (1918?).

IMO, it makes sense to wait until summer 1916, because by then, the Russian Black Sea fleet is pretty stout, with fancy new Dreadnoughts and big fast destroyers. (As well as general military, transportation improvements across the empire).

So then the Russians push the Armenians into full revolt with promises of support, which leads to a regional conflict between Ottoman Turkey and Russia.

So what do the other great powers do:

Austria: disinterested, have the Russians involved here and not in Europe helps Austria.

Germany: has invested a bunch of money in Turkey with the Baghdad railway. A bunch depend on if the Portugese colonies have been split by Britain and Germany, if so Germany is probably satisfied with "her place in the sun" for a while and would be ok if the Russians just took another slice of Armenia and kept their objectives limited. If Germany is still unsatisfied about her world power/colonial situation I could see her getting pretty fussy about this.

Britain: Probably not too happy about a strong Russia getting closer and closer to Egypt and the Persian Gulf, would want to keep Russian gains limited. More friendly with Germany especially if the Portugese colonies split.

France: Really doesn't want a war but would have to support Russia if she got into one with Germany.

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So I see three options:

1) A Germany/Turkey vs Russia/France war. With Austria and Britain neutral (pretty fair huh)

2) Russia takes the rest of Armenia after a short war with Turkey. Germany pissy about that but with Angola to injest and the cost of supporting Turkey high deals with it.

3) Turkey get really nasty with the Armenians, Europe is outraged and a Serves style dismemberment happens, with even Germany even picking up a share of the the Taursus/Little Armenia area

wiking said:

What does all this mean folks?

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It means that the deal before 1903 between Austria and Russia to put the Balkans on ice is back on. It means that the Tzar will die of old age, not a bullet to the head. It also means that Japan can start counting the days before Round II hits in the far east, and this time I doubt that the Germans are going to make the mistake they made in 1905, which was allowing an outcome other than a Russian victory...

abc123 said:

I think that even if Serbia accepted A-H ultimatum that wouldn't be enough to turn Serbia into A-H puppet and distance Serbia from Russia. Serbs would probably somehow muddled trough ultimatum demands and after that business as usual...

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Austria-Hungary could force Serbia to give up the areas claimed by Bulgaria.

Alternate History Geek said:

Austria-Hungary could force Serbia to give up the areas claimed by Bulgaria.

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Austria could do that, but once it was clear that Russia was now backing Austria and not Serbia, the entire focus of Austrian policy should shift towards St. Petersburg. Since Russia seemed non-plussed at Bulgaria's losses in 1913, and since Austria would place more importance in keeping its new Russian friend happy, the inference seems that Bulgaria will wind up on the "outs".

Alternate History Geek said:

Austria-Hungary could force Serbia to give up the areas claimed by Bulgaria.

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That would forced ANY Russia to intervene...

abc123 said:

That would forced ANY Russia to intervene...

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I'm not sure that's true; it just requires Russia to change proxies in the region, which, given Greek AND Turkist ties to Britain, should have probably occurred anyway.

The OP continues his search (both direct and indirect) for ways of helping Germany win the World Wars or at least improve its position. As is often the case the OP looks at just one side of the coin and only sees the benefits for Germany and not the pitfalls.

If Serbia backs down because there is no Russian support then Russia would be humiliated as a great power. Forget the black hand gang, this would quickly be about AH bullying Serbia and turning her into a client state thereby upsetting the Balance of Power.

This damages the Czarist Regime and leads to political instability. OTOH it would be easier to handle than OTL 1917.

If the Czar survives the backlash then Russia's economy (which was the world's fastest growing at the time) contiues to expand and the country becomes more powerful. This will alarm Germany as it was growing Russian power that they feared most and many German planners believed that a general war in Europe would have to come before 1917 if they were to have a chance of winning.

If there's no war in July 1914 then it will come later over another issue as Russia would be looking for an excuse to get revenge for their humiliation.

A more powerful, better equipped and numerous Russia with the same vengeful anger as the French over Alsace Lorraine would hit the Germans and Austrians hard in the East and we get a shorter WW1 with an Entente Victory within 6-8 months.

Well Russian military modernization efforts would have been successful in this case, although by this time wouldn't the Okhrana have dealt with subversives already? They'll also need more than just army reforms to survive though.

One of the main reasons Russia entered the war, was to support Serbia. Barring a POD far before the foundations of the Russo-Serbian Alliance, which would probably butterfly the war's beginning right away. Although it will likely only delay the war. If the Assassination of Arch Duke Franz Ferdinand fails, and the Black Hand is caught, Austria-Hungary could still declare war on Serbia, but without the death of a major political figure, I doubt that popular support would be for war.

But Europe is still tense enough to provide another spark, but if the spark involves Bosnia and Serbia, then Russia will intervene on behalf of the Serbs. If the Germans say, launch a Schlieffen Plan in 1915, keeping the plans to march through the neutral Netherlands, and don't send the needless reinforcements to support the Eastern Front. Like OTL, it will probably stalemate, although it is possible that Belgium could fall quicker. In the East, the Russians will attempt to occupy German Poland and East Prussia, and the Germans will seek to just have it run as Tannenberg V 2.0, and barring major reform in the Russian military they may just get it.

Enigmajones said:

But Europe is still tense enough to provide another spark, but if the spark involves Bosnia and Serbia, then Russia will intervene on behalf of the Serbs. If the Germans say, launch a Schlieffen Plan in 1915, keeping the plans to march through the neutral Netherlands, and don't send the needless reinforcements to support the Eastern Front. Like OTL, it will probably stalemate, although it is possible that Belgium could fall quicker. In the East, the Russians will attempt to occupy German Poland and East Prussia, and the Germans will seek to just have it run as Tannenberg V 2.0, and barring major reform in the Russian military they may just get it.

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The German's best move is to scrap the Schlieffen Plan , which was based on a flawed analysis of the Russo-Japanese War, hold in the West and attack in the East. In the short term, that will keep Britian out of the war to the German's advantage. In the long term if on OTL they can knock out Russia in a war that includes Britian then they should be able to do the job quicker in an AH where Britian is not blockading them.

Devolved said:

The OP continues his search (both direct and indirect) for ways of helping Germany win the World Wars or at least improve its position. As is often the case the OP looks at just one side of the coin and only sees the benefits for Germany and not the pitfalls.

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Considering this is the best way to get a very different 20th century and butterfly away some of the worst ills of that century, I don't see what the issue is exploring the PODs and resulting themes.

Devolved said:

If the Czar survives the backlash then Russia's economy (which was the world's fastest growing at the time)

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It was not the world's fastest growing economy, nor even Europe's. A-H's economy was growing faster in real terms than Russia's economy. Also the system that Russia put a limit on their growth potential, so I wouldn't get too carried away with predicting Russian hegemony on the Eurasian landmass.

Devolved said:

contiues to expand and the country becomes more powerful. This will alarm Germany as it was growing Russian power that they feared most and many German planners believed that a general war in Europe would have to come before 1917 if they were to have a chance of winning.

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And Russia will grow more aggressive...toward the Ottomans. The Russian monarchs had an obsession toward the Dardanelles for centuries and would continue to agitate in that direction, which Germany opposed, much as Britain and France at one point had too. One thing you are missing is that as the Russians grow in power, potentially eclipsing German might, the British would shift their loyalties to match the threat of Russian power. They were still very worried that the deal struck with Russia in 1907 over Asia was a temporary armistice and that Russia would just come back at them even stronger later. If they became to menacing to British interests, those interests are then better served by the Germans and A-Hs; France also was a traditional enemy of Britain, while Prussia was a British ally, so its not inconceivable that those traditional loyalties could reemerge if needed, especially if the Germans calm down from 1916 on, as they realize they cannot decisively win a war against Britain, France, and Russia.

Russia expansion is a threat to more than just Germany and A-H after all.

Devolved said:

If there's no war in July 1914 then it will come later over another issue as Russia would be looking for an excuse to get revenge for their humiliation.

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I don't think its so much an issue of revenge, as much as their future plans of expansion will bring them into conflict with other world powers like the Ottomans; I really suggest you listen to this:
http://www2.lse.ac.uk/newsAndMedia/...s/publicLecturesAndEvents/player.aspx?id=1733
and this:
http://www2.lse.ac.uk/newsAndMedia/...s/publicLecturesAndEvents/player.aspx?id=1712

Devolved said:

A more powerful, better equipped and numerous Russia with the same vengeful anger as the French over Alsace Lorraine would hit the Germans and Austrians hard in the East and we get a shorter WW1 with an Entente Victory within 6-8 months.

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France as a whole did not have an anger over Alsace by 1914; the population was mostly reconciled to its loss, though some politicians used it as a wedge issue to get political support or were privately obsessed with it. By and large the French public didn't care until the war started, then it was the only obvious metric for determining if they had gained from a war. Prior to the war the only way the French public would allow a war is if they were attacked, otherwise they would refuse to fight an aggressive war, which the French politicians were very afraid of, apparently telling the Russians the only way they would fight is if Germany attacked them, which they obligingly did; if Russia is the aggressor, the French public is not going to be fighting an aggressive war to support her. Germany and A-H with expanding armies are bigger, more modern, and have larger combined economies than Russia alone.

The problem with the scenario you lay out is that the Russian army, while expanding and modernizing, was also going to be met by a recovered Ottoman Empire, which was doing exactly the same as the Russians, a modernizing and growing A-H military and economy, and a growing German economy. Also the more Russia grows, the less Britain wants to support them, especially if Germany tones down her aggressive rhetoric, which they will after 1915 when the Schlieffen Plan was scheduled to be scrapped on account of Russian rail construction. Without Britain, Russia is in a bad way, because the German economy will remain bigger and more capable than the Russian one for some time; if they can fight without a blockade thanks to Britain being afraid of an aggressive, expanding Russia, then Russia will find a much more dangerous Germany and A-H than IOTL. Plus once the Ottomans complete their rail construction program and rebuild their armies from the Balkan wars, they the Russians will find they have a formidable enemy in the Caucasus; IOTL the Ottomans had just fought two major wars in Europe in two years, losing most of their European territory. The war came at just the wrong moment for the Ottomans. If the Russians start trouble in 1917 or later, the Ottomans become a much tougher enemy too both on land at at sea with the modern British dreadnoughts that were due for delivery in 1914.

Michael B said:

The German's best move is to scrap the Schlieffen Plan , which was based on a flawed analysis of the Russo-Japanese War, hold in the West and attack in the East. In the short term, that will keep Britian out of the war to the German's advantage. In the long term if on OTL they can knock out Russia in a war that includes Britian then they should be able to do the job quicker in an AH where Britian is not blockading them.

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The Schlieffen Plan was going to be obsolete in 1916 thanks to Russian rail construction, so Germany expected that it would have to take a more Russian-centric war plan starting that year. That would mean fortifying Alsace-Lorraine like they fortified their Eastern border and that they would have to seek detente with Britain. Devolved seems to be justifying the German desire for a war in 1914 though, which indicates that Russia was the true threat to European peace. As it was it seems Russia was planning on going after Germany's allies in the Balkans, so eventually war could result without the crisis of 1914.
In that case Germany would have a battle plan in the East, which would see them leave France along, forcing them to declare war, which would seriously politically divide and cripple the French war effort if they could even muster the votes for something like that in their Parliament. Russia would be facing a very different situation in the East, with another A-H and three more German armies above the August 1914 numbers of OTL. France would be a weaker ally, Britain would be neutral, the Ottomans much more ready for war. I don't think time is on the side of the Russians necessarily. Even the US would be much more favorable toward Germany when compared to the more autocratic Russians; IOTL the US government even was leery of the Russians, which modulated their support of the Entente somewhat; without the Germans invading Belgium, that negative attitude toward the repressive Russian regime would only be enhanced and Germany would be the aggrieved power.

Urban fox said:

It means the Tzarist regime has suffered another major setback, and after 1904-5 & 1909 this could prove fatal. It also puts a swift end to any Russian power and standing in the Balkans and could draw th Ottoman Empire firmly into Germany's orbit rather sooner than OTL.

The upshot is that a pathologically belligerent Germany will keep throwing it's weight around and a major war will break-out at some point. So Russia would be facing a lot more Austrian troops than OTL, without Serbia as an ally.

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The Tzarist regime falls only if it is dumb enough to go to war with Germany. Otherwise, it survives.

In terms of the Ottomans, the Russians had no one to blame but themselves. If they want the Turks to start treating Russia as other than an enemy, then the Russians should start treating the Ottomans as something other than their next meal.

MarshalBraginsky said:

The real question with Serbia neutered militarily by Austria-Hungary is, which side would Bulgaria take? Assuming that the Serbian Kingdom would be a Hapsburg satellite by now, Bulgaria still has territorial claims on what is now a Hapsburg satellite state. (ie: Macedonia)

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That's an interesting question. Since Bulgaria had claims to southern Serbia, and Serbia is defacto controlled by A-H, it would be easy to A-H to give Southern Serbia to Bulgaria as a sphere of influence. Probably outright annexation is too much since Russia now has excuse to intervene again and A-H lacks a reason to do this action in eyes of Entente. It also moves Bulgaria into alliance with A-H. It gives the Serbs someone else to hate. It breaks the idea of the "Southern Slav" as one people. So it is a wise move, but it seems to wise to me for A-H. I go with Hapsburg angering Bulgaria as most likely move.

abc123 said:

I think that even if Serbia accepted A-H ultimatum that wouldn't be enough to turn Serbia into A-H puppet and distance Serbia from Russia. Serbs would probably somehow muddled trough ultimatum demands and after that business as usual...

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It does turn Serbia into protectorate in eyes of people of time from sources of time. They key is the policing power. It was just not for the one assassination. It was for any action against A-H for the rest of time. At least this is what was feared. So PM takes some action very offensive to A-H, A-H can arrest him on trumped up charges. If you look at details of how African colonies were run, it is very close. Nigerian tribes could select any leader they wanted, unless the UK thought the leader harmed UK interests. Today we refer to this as a colony. Serbia would have been limited to choosing between various pro-Austrian leaders. And IMO, the Serbian military is gutted. It only takes a few A-H regiments at the RR border crossings to cut Serbia off from any help. And to be fair, there are always colaberators. A-H will be able to find unhappy Serbs to fill "Serbian" regiments to do the real dirty work. Make no mistake, A-H wanted nothing less than full puppetization/colonial status.

Catspoke said:

The Ottoman armenian/kurdish regions were simmering, almost to a boil, august 1914. A big question is how much do the Russians want to push things and how quick. Now cut out of the Balkans and already cut out of the Pacific by the Japanese, this makes sense as the only place to push. Russia would want to push before the Baghday railway gets completed and the Turkish ecomomy improves with Kurdish oil (1918?).

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Ottomans started mobilization on Sept 2. Finished Sept 25. No Russian mobilization, no Ottomans. Armenians have the more normal issue that they had to deal with the year before. And without Serbia, absolutely no one wants Russia to make gains in Ottoman lands but Russians. UK will absolutely come to add of Ottomans to keep Russians in Black Sea. Germany and A-H likely to. Now Nickie was dumb, but all this move does is get the world versus Russia version of WW1. If Russia backs down, there is a price to pay with no upside for the Russian ego. Yes in hindsight we know Russia and the Tsar is much, much better off. They will not feel that way ITTL.

IMO, it makes sense to wait until summer 1916, because by then, the Russian Black Sea fleet is pretty stout, with fancy new Dreadnoughts and big fast destroyers. (As well as general military, transportation improvements across the empire).

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Even dumber move by Tsar. A-H was rapidly modernizing its military. Ottomans have dreads coming on line. With UK at best neutral, the High Seas Fleet or the A-H fleet can intervene. That is if the RN does not with Ottoman blessing.

BlondieBC said:

Make no mistake, A-H wanted nothing less than full puppetization/colonial status.

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To think of Serbia as a puppet or as a colonial is to not know Serbia at all....