No Triassic-Jurassic mass extinction event: No Dinosaur dominance?

This idea was inspired by a recent BBC article on the rise of the dinosaurs and the extinction of the large non archosaur reptiles-the formally highly successful Therapsids and the Synapsids.

This mass extinction, which took place roughly 201.3 million years ago is, like the more famous K-T extinction, is very mysterious. Several conflicting theories exist over its cause, though evidence is very sparse for this period.

One theory suggests that given the comparative speed of the extinction, it was ( ironically) a meteorite, though currently no meteorite craters on the scale to cause such destruction dating from that period exists. Another theory suggests a series of volcanic eruptions in the flood basalt in the central Atlantic magnetic province released carbon, sulphur dioxide and aerosoles that caused either intense global warming or cooling. However, the most accepted theory is that it was caused by millions of years global warming, bought on by the acidification of the oceans and sea-level fluctuations that finally tipped over the edge. Of course, this itself poses more questions since such an extinction would be more gradual, then the rapid extinction geologists and paleontologists have observed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triassic–Jurassic_extinction_event

Whatever caused it though, its effects are more noticable, most notably, the mass extinction of around 70% of all species and 23% of all families were wiped out. Among st these casualties, were the long lasting Synapsids, most notable for the highly successful Lystrosaurus- arguably the most successful terrestrial animal ever.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lystrosaurus

This extinction is important for us since it paved the way for a new line of bipedal reptiles to take over-the Archosaurs whose ancestors were the Dinosaurs. In the article, the author hypothesizes that without the extinction event Synpasids would continued to evolve into large mammal like reptiles, taking over the oceans and forcing the dinosaurs to inherit the niche that mammals occupied OTL as small scavengers and insectivorous. Then, when they are wiped out by the K-T event, dinosaurs and mammals will occupy the niches and compete against each other.

Is this hypothesis accurate? Firstly, it assumes ( wrongly) that dinosaurs couldn't simply out compete the synapsids, despite the fact that by the end of the Triassic dinosaurs had already diversified into both theropods, sauropods ( Plateosaurus.) The first dinosaur that we know of, Nyasasaurus parringtoni, lived around 250 million years ago, though their direct ancestor Asilisaurus kongwe had existed long before this.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20594147
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8547735.stm

I think its fair to assume that dinosaurs would have out competed synapsids in the long term anyway, merely delaying their dominance, that is the extinction at the end of the Jurassic hadn't finished off the synapsids. But what do you think? And what other effects would no Triassic/Jurassic extinction have?
 
Most likely we would have a more diverse Mesozoic era, eventually some sort of extinction would happen as the cause of probably Dinosaurs over-competing the earlier archosaurs. But not all of them would just fade.....at least not until the extinction at the end of the Cretaceous.
 
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Most likly the dinosaurs would just be another group of archosaurs like in the Triassic. I doubt anything like a T-rex could evolve if the Rauisuchia are still walking around.
 
Most likly the dinosaurs would just be another group of archosaurs like in the Triassic. I doubt anything like a T-rex could evolve if the Rauisuchia are still walking around.

You did have large land-based crocodiles in the Cretaceous though that were clearly competing with theropods, so the two aren't necessarily mutually exclusive.

I think you'd definitely see broader synapsid diversity throughout the Mesozoic. Synapsids might be as diverse as modern reptiles are, rather than being almost entirely restricted to small mammals. Mammals will just be one advanced group of synapsids amongst many, and an explorer of this world might find it rather difficult to categorise what is and isn't technically a mammal.

I think that broadly archosaurs would dominate, but it'd be more like our Cenozoic world now- mammals dominate, but there are plenty of large birds and reptiles still around. In this scenario, we'd still probably have an "age of dinosaurs", but they wouldn't dominate faunal assemblages anything like as much as they did IOTL.
 
Geology and the like is generally considered butterfly-proof around here. Hence it is generally considered ASB.
Well, it was the Permian Mass Extinction event that opened the door for the dinosaurs to evolve at the first place. I don't think avoiding the Triassic- Jurassic extinction would have done anything else than slowed down the rise of the dinosaurs to dominance. The dinos were just better adapted than the Permian remnants. Also, avoiding the mass extinctions is ASB, since it requires both the climate and geological factors such as volcanoes and continental drifts to behave very differently.
 
Well, it was the Permian Mass Extinction event that opened the door for the dinosaurs to evolve at the first place. I don't think avoiding the Triassic- Jurassic extinction would have done anything else than slowed down the rise of the dinosaurs to dominance. The dinos were just better adapted than the Permian remnants. Also, avoiding the mass extinctions is ASB, since it requires both the climate and geological factors such as volcanoes and continental drifts to behave very differently.
The Permian extinction allowed dinosaurs to exist. The Triassic-Jurassic allowed them to take over. Before the TJ extinction, Triassic Dinosaurs, with few exceptions, where at more or less the same level as the Triassic Mammals, a small, insignificant sub grouping of a larger Heamatotheria clade (Archosaurs in the dinosaurs case, and Therapsids in the mammal's case), where as after the TJ extinction the dinosaurs took off, same as how the Permian extinction killed enough Therapsid taxons to allow the Archosaurs to explode, and how the KT extinction of 65 million years ago killed off the non-avian dinosaurs and allowed the Mammals to explode. That same pattern is repeated after every mass extinction event. Large animals die off, small animals become larger to take their place.
 
So what would you see dominating the skys of this world?
Pterosaurs most likely. Like most of the other Archosaur clades, the Pterosaurs first came into existence in the Triassic, and along side the Dinosaurs and Crocodillians, where one of only a handful of Archosaurs to survive the TJ extinction. The Triassic Pterosaurs where what we would consider "bird sized." The really big ones didn't evolve until after the TJ extinction.
 
The Permian extinction allowed dinosaurs to exist. The Triassic-Jurassic allowed them to take over. Before the TJ extinction, Triassic Dinosaurs, with few exceptions, where at more or less the same level as the Triassic Mammals, a small, insignificant sub grouping of a larger Heamatotheria clade (Archosaurs in the dinosaurs case, and Therapsids in the mammal's case), where as after the TJ extinction the dinosaurs took off, same as how the Permian extinction killed enough Therapsid taxons to allow the Archosaurs to explode, and how the KT extinction of 65 million years ago killed off the non-avian dinosaurs and allowed the Mammals to explode. That same pattern is repeated after every mass extinction event. Large animals die off, small animals become larger to take their place.

There were large dinosaurs in the Triassic though- certainly they all seem to have been much larger and more important than were, for example, Cretaceous mammals. So I'm not entirely sure your analogy works here. Similarly, the true mammals that seem to have evolved by the late Triassic were all very small. There were larger synapsids around, sure, but they probably weren't mammalian.
 

Faeelin

Banned
This ASB distinctoin seems kinda wonky to me. I get ASBs if it's "suppose dinosaurs survived in the Congo," but there's nothing implausible about an asteroid changing its course, no?
 
There were large dinosaurs in the Triassic though- certainly they all seem to have been much larger and more important than were, for example, Cretaceous mammals. So I'm not entirely sure your analogy works here. Similarly, the true mammals that seem to have evolved by the late Triassic were all very small. There were larger synapsids around, sure, but they probably weren't mammalian.
I said "with few exceptions" not "there where no large dinosaurs at all". That being said the size of the dinosaurs did increase by orders of magnitude after the TJ extinction. For example compare the Panphagia of before the TJ extinction (1.30 meters long) with one of it's decendents, the Amphicoelias of the late Jurassic (over 60 meters long)
 
This ASB distinctoin seems kinda wonky to me. I get ASBs if it's "suppose dinosaurs survived in the Congo," but there's nothing implausible about an asteroid changing its course, no?
An object in motion stays in motion unless acted upon by an outside force. For an asteroid to change it's course it would need to be pulled by the gravity of another body.
 
Geology and the like is generally considered butterfly-proof around here. Hence it is generally considered ASB.

Hmm. I think this site needs a new definition to see where geology and prehistoric PODs stand. By that logic, the land of red and gold would be ASB, as would many other TL's that see native Americans/Polynesians e.c.t domesticate horses or develop more advanced agriculture since all those POD's are biological and thus "ASB." I don't see it as ASB, i believe that had something else in space or the earth just been slightly different it could all have been different.
 
Hmm. I think this site needs a new definition to see where geology and prehistoric PODs stand. By that logic, the land of red and gold would be ASB, as would many other TL's that see native Americans/Polynesians e.c.t domesticate horses or develop more advanced agriculture since all those POD's are biological and thus "ASB." I don't see it as ASB, i believe that had something else in space or the earth just been slightly different it could all have been different.
Biology is different, it has to do with living creatures. People who didn't domesticate animals OTL could well have done it ATL. Evolution could have gone differently if one species survived an extinction event, or if one species had spread to a certain place and thus been able to adopt a certain niche before another species is able to do the same. Climate, Continental Drifts, Volcanic Activity etc. are things a living creature can't affect.
 
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