So if the Russians had made good on their promise to intervene on Serbia's behalf in the Austro-Serbian War of 1914-1915, then would the Germans and Italians make good on their secret alliance with Austria? What about the secret French Alliance with the Russians agianst Germay? What about the British rivalry with Germany? Just how big could the war have gotten if it was allowed to escalate?
DBWI: How big could the Austro-Serbian war of 1914 gotten?
- Thread starter ArKhan
- Start date
Will Kürlich Kerl
Banned
Well, it could fully escalate into a full-out European war. Austria-Hungary and Germany on one side, while France and Russia on the other. Three fronts will develop, with one quickly disappearing as the Austrians defeat the Serbians. The Austrians and Germans will probably defeat the Russians in about four, maybe five years. The Western Front will probably be stalemate, because attacking France at its heavily fortified border will not do anything to help the Germans' position a single bit. Attacking France through Switzerland is out of the question. Attacking France through Belgium is also out of the question, because it brings Great Britain, another major power, on the France-Russian side. Besides, OTL Belgium, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands were growing rather close to Germany, and Germany doesn't want to ruin everything.
I doubt the Italians will hold true to their alliance. Even though they are the third member, they believe that the alliance was only for defensive purposes only. In OTL that actually happened, and as a result, the Austrian-Serbian war stayed that way, and the Austrians didn't get backing from Italy. ITTL, since Austria-Hungary and Germany are the belligerents here, the Italians will still likely stay neutral.
As ASB as it sounds it could possibly have become a world wide conflict leading to the ruin of several of the European powers
Will Kürlich Kerl
Banned
If France or Germany makes a stupid mistake and invade Belgium, yeah, I could see ruin on either country, and the war escalating to three continents.
If France invades Belgium, Great Britain joins the side of Germany. Big time fighting between Russian Central Asia and British India, and between Russian Far East and Japan, who was allied with Great Britain OTL throughout the twentieth century because of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. Also, huge fighting in Africa between France and the alliance of Great Britain, Portugal, Germany, and Belgium.
If Germany invades Belgium, Great Britain joins the side of France. Less war in Asia and Africa, with Japan taking over some minor islands claimed by Germany, and Great Britain joining France to take over German colonies in Africa.*
This is because in a major European war, Belgium will most likely remain neutral and allied with Great Britain, and by extension, Great Britain will remain neutral. An violation of Belgian neutrality will cause Great Britain to join the war. And a major European war is actually quite likely if Russia agreed to intervene, putting the alliances into play.
*Though there was the Schlieffen Plan created in 1905, asking German troops to invade into Belgium, it wasn't taken seriously by the German military and soon was tossed out.
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The main problem is having the French somehow manage to invade Belgium before the British manage to tell them that it will result in war. There's no question in my mind that the French would back down if presented with such a threat; this is essentially what happened during the whole scuffle over the assassination of Bethmann-Hollweg in 1917, and there's no reason their logic would be different three years earlier. There's no reason for Russia to risk a European war over Serbia, either; they were happy to sit back and develop with French money during this period.
At best, you could have Nicholas II be swayed by the Pan-Slavists in his government, which would bring in Germany as well, but I doubt it would spread further, due to French reluctance. Such a war would be brutal to Poland, but I doubt it would be very decisive one way or the other. The only major thing I could see arising out of this is a collapse of Austria-Hungary. The Russians had mostly finished ironing out the rough edges from the Russo-Japanese war, while the Austrians showed us OTL how terrible their armies were during this period. Really, it took them nearly a year to conquer Serbia; I shudder to think what would have happened if they had had to face a real Great Power.
At best, you could have Nicholas II be swayed by the Pan-Slavists in his government, which would bring in Germany as well, but I doubt it would spread further, due to French reluctance. Such a war would be brutal to Poland, but I doubt it would be very decisive one way or the other. The only major thing I could see arising out of this is a collapse of Austria-Hungary. The Russians had mostly finished ironing out the rough edges from the Russo-Japanese war, while the Austrians showed us OTL how terrible their armies were during this period. Really, it took them nearly a year to conquer Serbia; I shudder to think what would have happened if they had had to face a real Great Power.
No sane great power would aid a country that had just killed the crown price of another great power (make that president elect for the republics).
The war - as you called it - was in reality just a police action done with the blessing of all the other European great powers.
If we would have a madman on one of the Thrones a mobilisation by any great power (other than A-H and this was only to the extent needed to police Serbia) would likely have a dominoe effect - and a war of at least the European Great powers would be the result. UK wound not even have to wait for anybody to invade Belgium to join. UK simply could NOT allow Germany to win decisively or it would lose its status as world power no. 1.
What the US would have done is doubtful, but I could see them "policinG" the trade lanes in and out of Europe to secure free trade even during war time.
Japan of course would have taken to opportunity and expand its empire (as it did during teh US /UK war of 1935) by siding with the Brits and attack the colonial holdings of Germany.
The Ottomans probably are too occupied with modernizing their country to actually fight, but Probably they could jump on Russia later if it seems russia is stumbling. But this woudl require a Russia first strategy by GErmany and A-H. And as we know that the Germans thought of a Frnace first strategy (not that it would have worfed. France was not Napoleons France in 1914 - not as powerful, but more sane in its decisions (and Brtians help is also valuable - though I doubt taht britain will commit more than 10 divisions - tops...)
The war - as you called it - was in reality just a police action done with the blessing of all the other European great powers.
If we would have a madman on one of the Thrones a mobilisation by any great power (other than A-H and this was only to the extent needed to police Serbia) would likely have a dominoe effect - and a war of at least the European Great powers would be the result. UK wound not even have to wait for anybody to invade Belgium to join. UK simply could NOT allow Germany to win decisively or it would lose its status as world power no. 1.
What the US would have done is doubtful, but I could see them "policinG" the trade lanes in and out of Europe to secure free trade even during war time.
Japan of course would have taken to opportunity and expand its empire (as it did during teh US /UK war of 1935) by siding with the Brits and attack the colonial holdings of Germany.
The Ottomans probably are too occupied with modernizing their country to actually fight, but Probably they could jump on Russia later if it seems russia is stumbling. But this woudl require a Russia first strategy by GErmany and A-H. And as we know that the Germans thought of a Frnace first strategy (not that it would have worfed. France was not Napoleons France in 1914 - not as powerful, but more sane in its decisions (and Brtians help is also valuable - though I doubt taht britain will commit more than 10 divisions - tops...)
Well, Serbia was already in a bad position after the invasion by Turkey. I think that it would have been no bigger than the Ottoman-Bulgarian war of 1912. Allies got involved there.