Following the death of the King Sebastian of Portugal in the Battle of Ksar El Kibir, in 1578, he was succeeded by his great-uncle, Cardinal Henry, who died two years later without legitimate direct successor. Three grandchildren of Manuel I claimed the throne, among them Phillip II of Spain, later Phillip I of Portugal, whom became the effective inheritor of the Portuguese Crown.
This succession was not without thorns and one of the other grandchildren of Manuel I, António Prior of Crato, even defended his right to the Portuguese thrown. He was proclaimed King of Portugal in Santarém on the 19th July 1580 relying upon popular hostility to a Spanish ruler. His support was feeble, however, relying on the common people while the upper classes supported the Spanish King - because many of them had been bribed, promised future benefits, or threatened with the loss of their privileges and estates.
António’s adventure lasted for twenty days, after which he was defeated in the Battle of Alcântara by a Spanish army led by the Duke of Alba. Some more skirmishes followed, namely in the Azores, but the fate of the Portuguese Thrown of settled: Phillip II of Spain, I of Portugal, would become the new King of Portugal, thus uniting all the Iberian Crowns.
This dynastic union lasted for eighty years until 1640 when John, Duke of Braganza, was acclaimed as John IV of Portugal beginning the Portuguese Restoration War that eventually led to the independence of Portugal.
That was what happened in our TL. Now, let’s say that, as other times, the Portuguese are able to defeat the Spanish invaders at the Battle of Alcântara. This will be our POD. Obviously a victory in that battle alone would not ensure the survival of Portugal as an independent country. Philip II of Spain would not give up just for loosing a small engagement. Nevertheless let’s say that a victory in that battle would galvanize the supporters of Antonio, make those that were indecisively sitting on the sidelines come over to Prior of Crato field and, eventually, even making most of the nobles and remainder upper classes that supported Phillip of Spain change sides.
With the majority of the country now firmly behind him, Antonio I is able to rally the forces necessary to ensure that the Spanish are not able to control the Portuguese territory and, eventually, peace is made with the understanding that if Antonio I of Portugal does not have any direct male successor, the Crown of Portugal would go for Phillip II of Spain.
So, considering that in our TL Antonio fathered several children, including, at least, two male suns, let’s consider that Portugal continues to be ruled by the dynasty of the House of Beja-Aviz in the person of King Antonio I of Portugal, the Determined. Some butterflies come to mind as a direct result of this POD:
- The enemies of Spain (England, The United Provinces, France) do not turn on Portugal, thus the Portuguese overseas colonies and territories do not become fair game namely Brazil (attacked and partially occupied by the French and Dutch) in South America and Ceylon in Asia;
- Portuguese commercial interests in Asia, Africa and South America would naturally suffer from increased competition from the English, Dutch and French, but not on a such scale and pressure as in our TL;
- Probably no participation (direct or indirect) in the called Thirty Years War, in which Spain had an active role;
- No participation in the Spanish Armada that sailed to England in 1588 with the intention of overthrowing Elizabeth I of England (it would probably sail out of Seville instead of Lisbon) which would mean a weaker Spanish Armada, from one side, and a much more powerful Portuguese navy in the following decades (without the losses suffered in the Spanish Armada failed attempt to invade England)
As a consequence in spite of the already obvious signs of decline visible in the Portuguese Empire before the Succession crisis of 1580, keeping the independence would certainly forestall said decline (which was increased under the rule of the Spanish Philippine Dynasty) and, maybe, even allow to its reversal.
Another possible consequence could be a modernization, and consequently increase of strengh, of the Portuguese Navy following the defeat of the Spanish Fleet at the hands of the English seaman and the adoption of the revolutionary naval battle tactics and ship designs (e.g. Dreadnaught) introduced by the English.
Further down the line, we could have a different situation during the Napoleonic wars. Let’s say that instead of refusing to comply with the Continental Blockade implemented by Napoleon, Portugal, in spite of the long standing alliance with England, closes its mainland harbors to English trading vessels – let’s say they do open the overseas harbors for trade with England like they did in Brazil on OTL to compensate and not loose its ally – knowing that on land the Napoleonic Armies are, for the moment, unbeatable. This would have three major consequences: no submission of Portugal to England as a semi-colony/protectorate for decades, a very different Peninsular War without the Napoleonic Invasions of Portugal and the Brazilian national entity would not be formed as in out TL.
Thinking of maybe developing a TL from this POD.
Ideas, suggestions and comments anybody?
This succession was not without thorns and one of the other grandchildren of Manuel I, António Prior of Crato, even defended his right to the Portuguese thrown. He was proclaimed King of Portugal in Santarém on the 19th July 1580 relying upon popular hostility to a Spanish ruler. His support was feeble, however, relying on the common people while the upper classes supported the Spanish King - because many of them had been bribed, promised future benefits, or threatened with the loss of their privileges and estates.
António’s adventure lasted for twenty days, after which he was defeated in the Battle of Alcântara by a Spanish army led by the Duke of Alba. Some more skirmishes followed, namely in the Azores, but the fate of the Portuguese Thrown of settled: Phillip II of Spain, I of Portugal, would become the new King of Portugal, thus uniting all the Iberian Crowns.
This dynastic union lasted for eighty years until 1640 when John, Duke of Braganza, was acclaimed as John IV of Portugal beginning the Portuguese Restoration War that eventually led to the independence of Portugal.
That was what happened in our TL. Now, let’s say that, as other times, the Portuguese are able to defeat the Spanish invaders at the Battle of Alcântara. This will be our POD. Obviously a victory in that battle alone would not ensure the survival of Portugal as an independent country. Philip II of Spain would not give up just for loosing a small engagement. Nevertheless let’s say that a victory in that battle would galvanize the supporters of Antonio, make those that were indecisively sitting on the sidelines come over to Prior of Crato field and, eventually, even making most of the nobles and remainder upper classes that supported Phillip of Spain change sides.
With the majority of the country now firmly behind him, Antonio I is able to rally the forces necessary to ensure that the Spanish are not able to control the Portuguese territory and, eventually, peace is made with the understanding that if Antonio I of Portugal does not have any direct male successor, the Crown of Portugal would go for Phillip II of Spain.
So, considering that in our TL Antonio fathered several children, including, at least, two male suns, let’s consider that Portugal continues to be ruled by the dynasty of the House of Beja-Aviz in the person of King Antonio I of Portugal, the Determined. Some butterflies come to mind as a direct result of this POD:
- The enemies of Spain (England, The United Provinces, France) do not turn on Portugal, thus the Portuguese overseas colonies and territories do not become fair game namely Brazil (attacked and partially occupied by the French and Dutch) in South America and Ceylon in Asia;
- Portuguese commercial interests in Asia, Africa and South America would naturally suffer from increased competition from the English, Dutch and French, but not on a such scale and pressure as in our TL;
- Probably no participation (direct or indirect) in the called Thirty Years War, in which Spain had an active role;
- No participation in the Spanish Armada that sailed to England in 1588 with the intention of overthrowing Elizabeth I of England (it would probably sail out of Seville instead of Lisbon) which would mean a weaker Spanish Armada, from one side, and a much more powerful Portuguese navy in the following decades (without the losses suffered in the Spanish Armada failed attempt to invade England)
As a consequence in spite of the already obvious signs of decline visible in the Portuguese Empire before the Succession crisis of 1580, keeping the independence would certainly forestall said decline (which was increased under the rule of the Spanish Philippine Dynasty) and, maybe, even allow to its reversal.
Another possible consequence could be a modernization, and consequently increase of strengh, of the Portuguese Navy following the defeat of the Spanish Fleet at the hands of the English seaman and the adoption of the revolutionary naval battle tactics and ship designs (e.g. Dreadnaught) introduced by the English.
Further down the line, we could have a different situation during the Napoleonic wars. Let’s say that instead of refusing to comply with the Continental Blockade implemented by Napoleon, Portugal, in spite of the long standing alliance with England, closes its mainland harbors to English trading vessels – let’s say they do open the overseas harbors for trade with England like they did in Brazil on OTL to compensate and not loose its ally – knowing that on land the Napoleonic Armies are, for the moment, unbeatable. This would have three major consequences: no submission of Portugal to England as a semi-colony/protectorate for decades, a very different Peninsular War without the Napoleonic Invasions of Portugal and the Brazilian national entity would not be formed as in out TL.
Thinking of maybe developing a TL from this POD.
Ideas, suggestions and comments anybody?
