WI: Germany decides AH is too weak to support in or before July 1914

FickleCrossroad · Feb 10, 2013

What sort of POD would be required for Germany to decide against supporting Austria-Hungary for trying to start WW1 over Serbia?

POD restraints:
-Germany and AH are not aligned against each other by 1914, preferably the alliance is still formally on paper.
-Germany spends more effort diplomatically to try to defuse the situation
-AH takes OTL path against Serbia, damn the consequences
-Germany takes a friendly but neutral stance towards AH.
-Wilhelm II/Heer don't screw things up enough to get in a war with the Entente over a misunderstanding, taking too aggressive a posture if mobilization is called, etc. Ideally, meetings between the German government and the Entente ambassadors are successful in showing German disinterest in a war over THAT.

Bonus:
-How does one construct a POD with all of the restraints above, where once AH invades Serbia, Germany invades Austria?

End Goal:
-Germany gets best combination of 1914 and 31 August 1939 borders, without having to:
1) Go through a WW1 against the British, Russians, AND French
1a) A war against France and Russia is acceptable as long as Germany is obviously not the aggressor.
2) Endure Naziism or any far-right analogue.

How does one get to this POD without ASB's? The latter the POD, the better.

Alternate History Geek · Feb 10, 2013

spdoyle said:
What sort of POD would be required for Germany to decide against supporting Austria-Hungary for trying to start WW1 over Serbia?

POD restraints:
-Germany and AH are not aligned against each other by 1914, preferably the alliance is still formally on paper.
-Germany spends more effort diplomatically to try to defuse the situation
-AH takes OTL path against Serbia, damn the consequences
-Germany takes a friendly but neutral stance towards AH.
-Wilhelm II/Heer don't screw things up enough to get in a war with the Entente over a misunderstanding, taking too aggressive a posture if mobilization is called, etc. Ideally, meetings between the German government and the Entente ambassadors are successful in showing German disinterest in a war over THAT.

Bonus:
-How does one construct a POD with all of the restraints above, where once AH invades Serbia, Germany invades Austria?

End Goal:
-Germany gets best combination of 1914 and 31 August 1939 borders, without having to:
1) Go through a WW1 against the British, Russians, AND French
1a) A war against France and Russia is acceptable as long as Germany is obviously not the aggressor.
2) Endure Naziism or any far-right analogue.

How does one get to this POD without ASB's? The latter the POD, the better.

Does Russia invade Galicia as OTL?

FickleCrossroad · Feb 10, 2013

Alternate History Geek said:
Does Russia invade Galicia as OTL?

It's permissable but not necessary to the POD. German-Russian relations can be no worse than pre-assassination, and ideally the diplomacy gives the Russians something to think about. Ideally, Russian forces stay as far away from Silesia as possible, so if they can start the war by staying to the east of the Bug as a sign of good faith, that's fine. Any aggression towards Silesia has to be blatantly threatening to keep as much of the Entente neutral to Germany as possible.

Alternate History Geek · Feb 10, 2013

Does this end up with a partition of Austria-Hungary?

OOC: I think that for this to happen, Frederick III has to not get throat cancer.

FickleCrossroad · Feb 10, 2013

Alternate History Geek said:
Does this end up with a partition of Austria-Hungary?

OOC: I think that for this to happen, Frederick III has to not get throat cancer.

Yes, AH would be partitioned. Grossdeutschland is achieved without Nazis, and as little war as possible.

Ideally all other AH territory would be partitioned along ethnic lines minus some gains by Russia.

I'm just looking for a POD different from the obvious and already written repeatedly, "Make sure Frederick III has a LONG reign." Ploy. Average the ages at natural death of the Wilhelms on either side of him, and Frederick III would die in 1917, which implies that if he's still alive in 1914, it won't be for long, and he may not have all of his faculties. So, barring Wilhelm II predeceasing Frederick III, I assume Wilhelm II will be Kaiser.

Now, one where Wilhelm II does predecease his father, Frederick does not get cancer, but dies sometime in the 1900-1910 era, Wilhelm III as Kaiser would also be acceptable. However, Frederick III having a reign of over a decade ultimately may likely see his successor being little more than a constitutional monarch. That would dovetail nicely with what I'm thinking here.

Max Sinister · Feb 11, 2013

TTL Germany might end up in a not-so-splendid isolation.

Glenn239 · Feb 11, 2013

spdoyle said:
What sort of POD would be required for Germany to decide against supporting Austria-Hungary for trying to start WW1 over Serbia?

Better relations with Britain, such that the Balkans are placed outside the Entente sphere.

How does one construct a POD with all of the restraints above, where once AH invades Serbia, Germany invades Austria?

The understanding between Austria and Germany that underpinned the period from the ending to the 1866 war until the dissolution of the Austrian Empire in 1918 was that the Balkans was Austria's sphere of influence and that along the Rhine was Germany's. You are proposing that Germany betrays Austria on that arrangement, and that from this, the rest of Europe does not look upon Germany as unreliable backstabbers.

Ok, let's say Germany does what you say, and to avoid its own destruction, Austria is forced to cede B-H to Serbia. The price is that Austria is now deeply embittered against Germany, and considers Berlin its #1 enemy. Sensing opportunity, France leads Austria-Hungary into the Entente with the understanding that when the war breaks out, the Germany hegemony on the Rhine will be broken and the Austrians will reestablish its old sphere along the upper Rhine. Let's say the Austrians accept, and French money pours into Austria to expand their army in preparation for a Russian-Austrian-French war against Germany.

Now what for Germany?

caloysky · Feb 11, 2013

Glenn239 said:
Better relations with Britain,..... Let's say the Austrians accept, and French money pours into Austria to expand their army in preparation for a Russian-Austrian-French war against Germany.

Now what for Germany?

That would be a very interesting scenario. Would there still be a Hitler in that particular timeline?

Glenn239 · Feb 11, 2013

caloysky said:
That would be a very interesting scenario. Would there still be a Hitler in that particular timeline?

Sure, he'd be a second-rate painter in Vienna. The question is whether there still would be a Germany in that scenario.

Everyone always assumes that if Austria and Germany fell out, that it would be Austria that "gets it". And yet, throughout WW1, it was always to Austria that the Entente's thoughts turned whenever they looked at the enemy coalition and wondered if they could make a deal.

MrHaakwood · Feb 11, 2013

Glenn239 said:
Better relations with Britain, such that the Balkans are placed outside the Entente sphere.

The understanding between Austria and Germany that underpinned the period from the ending to the 1866 war until the dissolution of the Austrian Empire in 1918 was that the Balkans was Austria's sphere of influence and that along the Rhine was Germany's. You are proposing that Germany betrays Austria on that arrangement, and that from this, the rest of Europe does not look upon Germany as unreliable backstabbers.

Ok, let's say Germany does what you say, and to avoid its own destruction, Austria is forced to cede B-H to Serbia. The price is that Austria is now deeply embittered against Germany, and considers Berlin its #1 enemy. Sensing opportunity, France leads Austria-Hungary into the Entente with the understanding that when the war breaks out, the Germany hegemony on the Rhine will be broken and the Austrians will reestablish its old sphere along the upper Rhine. Let's say the Austrians accept, and French money pours into Austria to expand their army in preparation for a Russian-Austrian-French war against Germany.

Now what for Germany?

Why would Austria loose BH?
Why would Austria deeply embittered against Germany when it was again X-Balkanwar?
Why would Austria join the Entente?
How would a Russian - French - Austrian war start? Would GB etheir join forces with Germany, than with a continal block, which existance is really iffy to achieve?

Glenn239 · Feb 11, 2013

MrHaakwood said:
Why would Austria loose BH?

Because, if abandoned by Germany, Austria must seek an accord with Russia or Austria will perish. And that understanding requires a revision of the status of BH. One might think that Russia goes with Germany, but France will lay down all its influence in favour of Austria, since no Russian alliance with Germany is in the interests of France.

Why would Austria deeply embittered against Germany when it was again X-Balkanwar?

The scenario is that Germany backstabs Austria. You're asking why Austria would be embittered after being betrayed and humilitiated by its ally.

Why would Austria join the Entente?

If Germany betrays Austria, the Central Powers alliance is dead. There is room for one aboard the Entente, but only at the expense of the other. Germany has just finished Austria as a Balkans Power, but Austria is still a Great Power. Why not just formally have Berlin invite Austria to sound France about overturning the verdicts of 1866/1871?

How would a Russian - French - Austrian war start?

Someone picks a fight with Germany, I should imagine.

Would GB etheir join forces with Germany, than with a continal block, which existance is really iffy to achieve?

British policy will not break ranks with France.