Reviving the Idea of an Ottoman Victory in 1877-78

Many of you who have been on this board for a while may remember Abdul Hadi Pasha's idea and subsequent development of a scenario where the Ottomans had managed to fend off the Russians in the Russo-Turkish war of 1877-78. Its a scenario I've had a lot of interest in myself, and with the apparent abandonment of the project on the part of AHP, I've decided to take a stab at it myself, although trying as much as possible not to ape his take on the scenario.

While I have the actual conduct of the war and a number of its effects already researched and outlined, there are still some ideas and concepts I feel could be discussed.

Roughly, the course of the war is that the Russians manage to cross the Danube with a considerable amount of resistance on the part of the Ottomans, Gurko's attempts to secure a number of Balkan passes in order to deny the Ottomans secure internal communications is thrwarted, but the Russian army continues to progress towards Plevna, where as in OTL, they are met by Osman Pasha's forces. However, after the first two unsuccessful assaults of OTL, Osman Pasha is re-enforced and the Ottoman forces are eventually able to push the Russians back over the Danube.

While I agree with Pasha that the Ottomans will not be taking any territory, there are still a number of unresolved questions about the peace treaty. I find it likely that the British in particular will press for a harsh indemnity to be paid toward the Ottoman Empire (for financial reasons, to secure the Ottoman states debt many of their bankers hold, as well as to shore up the Ottoman Empire's position as a useful bulwark). My question is what figure would actually sound realistic? All my attempts up to now to find figures for how much the Ottomans payed to the Russians have failed, so I don't know what kind of figure would be appropriate.

More questions are raised at what happens to the Ottoman Empire afterward. Their immediate international security is secured, but there are still massive problems surrounding their debt, their shortage of money for investment in development, and the situation with its Christian population.

Any thoughts or comments are much appreciated.
 
While I don't know much about the value of money in this time, I remember that France was made to pay 5 billion francs to Prussia in the 1870 war.
At the time it was considered an astronomical sum, yet France managed to pay it in just 5 years, leading to considerable consternation in Prussia.
My take it that Russia would be made to pay a somewhat larger sum, say 7 billion francs for indemnity. After all, you have the British behind you...

What I find interesting in Abdul-Hadi Pasha's thesis is that the Ottomans wasted too much men trying to take back Shipka pass in order to reinforce Pleven.
1. What if they marched all the way from Varna to Danube and then turned left towards Pleven?
2. Would it be possible to relieve relieve that town without storming well-defended position like Shipka pass?
3. How many men the Russians and Ottomans had during this time?

Cheers!

Rad
 
While I don't know much about the value of money in this time, I remember that France was made to pay 5 billion francs to Prussia in the 1870 war.
At the time it was considered an astronomical sum, yet France managed to pay it in just 5 years, leading to considerable consternation in Prussia.
My take it that Russia would be made to pay a somewhat larger sum, say 7 billion francs for indemnity. After all, you have the British behind you...

What I find interesting in Abdul-Hadi Pasha's thesis is that the Ottomans wasted too much men trying to take back Shipka pass in order to reinforce Pleven.
1. What if they marched all the way from Varna to Danube and then turned left towards Pleven?
2. Would it be possible to relieve relieve that town without storming well-defended position like Shipka pass?
3. How many men the Russians and Ottomans had during this time?

Cheers!

Rad
Well, I've already started the TL (there's a link in my signature) but I might as well respond.

For the first point, I ended up having the Russians pay around 1 billion Francs. The reasoning for this was that the war doesn't end with a total defeat for the Russians. The Ottomans hold no Russian territory when peace is signed and the Russians still have more men in their army than the Ottomans do (though deployable strength is another question).

Shipka pass was one of the vital routes into Southern Bulgaria, though not the only one. I guess that Suleiman Pasha did not feel comfortable with a substantial Russian force at his back. Also, if I'm not mistaken, he was approaching from the West, as his army had been deployed in Albania and Bosnia before the war.

The Russian army overall outnumbered the Ottomans a number of times over, but a large part of the Russian army was needed for guard duty. The Russians severely underestimated the strength of the Ottoman Army before the war (which was already fully mobilized due to rebellion). The Ottomans had over 200,000 troops overall, but the Russians had up to 700,000.
 
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