WW1: CP decide it's best to give up

Max Sinister

Banned
Relatively early in WW1, some of the responsible people in the CP saw that the war against the combined power of Britain and its Empire, France and Russia was pretty hopeless. Conrad von Hötzendorff (commander of A-H's armies) suggested to make peace with the Allies, handing them effectively over the Ottoman Empire. (Not that stupid, since the Brits and Russians certainly would've disagreed what to do now.) Some German politicians / military leaders also thought about that, but even suggested A-H should give Galicia to Russia, but annex Serbia as a compensation.

Certainly that wouldn't be all - France wanted A-L, and I can't see them change their mind.

But WI they'd done it? Would Germany and A-H reform afterwards, since the conservatives and nationalists who wanted the war have to take the blame for losing it? Or, since Russia now has most of its objectives, would Russia side with the other conservative monarchies against Britain, France and Japan?
 

Michael B

Max Sinister said:
But WI they'd done it? Would Germany and A-H reform afterwards, since the conservatives and nationalists who wanted the war have to take the blame for losing it? Or, since Russia now has most of its objectives, would Russia side with the other conservative monarchies against Britain, France and Japan?
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1) The Austro Hungarian Empire may have lurched on a tad longer. However, its principle objective of keeping the Austrians and Hungarians running the show and keeping people like the Czechs and Serbians down gave it as much chance of long term survival as Yugoslavia had at the end of the Cold War. It may be assumed that eventually it would collapse leaving its neighbours to decide which pieces they wanted to grab.

2) A Russian-German alliance would be a natural one if it was aimed at the British Empire and Japan. Britain was allied to Japan in order to contain the High Seas Fleet. Russia had a bone to pick with Japan over its shoeing in Korea and Siberia.
 

Nicole

1) The Austro Hungarian Empire may have lurched on a tad longer. However, its principle objective of keeping the Austrians and Hungarians running the show and keeping people like the Czechs and Serbians down gave it as much chance of long term survival as Yugoslavia had at the end of the Cold War. It may be assumed that eventually it would collapse leaving its neighbours to decide which pieces they wanted to grab.
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I strongly disagree- the Austrian aristocrats realized that the power-sharing system did not work, and by the 1910s peoples like the Czechs and Galician Poles did have power in their own provinces... the exception to this is Hungary, which will likely have more and more trouble getting the Ausgleich renewed as the years go on.
 

Othniel

Austria and Hungary could split, a Russian being offered the Hungarian Throne...Afterall there are many a time that the Hungarians disagreed with the Austrians... So instead of one giant Empire you see two medium ones.
 

LordKalvan

The real problem is when. The best bet might be December 1916, when Wilson makes his first peace overtures to the belligerants. the problem is that at this point in time the strategic situations appears to favor the CPs: while both the Western Front and the Isonzo front have become stalemated, the CPs have eliminated Serbia at the end of 1915, and are in effective control of the Balkans (even if the Entente secondary front at Salonika has registered some minor success against Bulgary). The only significant fact is the death of Franz-Joseph in November, but this potential disruption for A-H is certainly more than balanced by the situation in Russia (the Czar will abdicate in 3 months time). It is difficult to envisage a compromise solution which might satisfy everyone: the major issues are certainly war reparations, the status of Belgium, Alsace-Lorraine and the outcome in the Balkans.
Who is going to give what?
  • A-H has gained all its objectives and more, and would enjoy a dominant position in the Balkans that the other Powers will not accept. The points are not Galicia (the Russians do not have much to bargain for at this stage) or Serbia (there is no interest by A-H in annexing it: better to leave it as a protectorate, under a different dinasty, and give the macedonian lands they gained in the second Balkan war to Bulgary. IMHO, A-H will have to do additional sacrifices to compensate Italy: as a minimum, Trieste, Istria, Trentino ceded to Italy; Montenegro restored as independent state, and the protectorate in North Albania given to Italy.
  • Germany would loose its colonies, but they are already lost in any case. War compensations and indemnities to Belgium. Toward east, possibly the Baltic duchies might become independent, and Finland as well. No Poland, I guess.
  • Russia would be the loser: the Baltic duchies and Finland gone, and nothing to show in exchange (maybe better rights in the Ottoman empire?) Otoh, the russians do not have a lot to bargain with (and the internal situation is deteriorating day by day)
  • UK might be satisfied with a restored Belgium, and the acquisition of Tanganyka and S-W Africa
  • The Ottomans are the other guy without much to bargain with. Still the Empire can be saved (but the Capitulations would stay). I expect that Lebanon and the protection of the Holy Sites in Palestine might be given to France to administer as a mandate.
  • Italy should be satisfied with the acquisition of Trentino, Trieste, Istria and the protectorate over Montenegro and Albania (which effectively would allow them to bottle up the Adriatic).
  • France has a lot of grievances with Germany, and Togoland and Cameroon (even if topped up by the Lebanon mandate) are not a lot to renounce to an opportunity of paying back the Germans and regain Alsace Lorraine. maybe some adjustments in China.
IMHO, this is a very unlikely scenario: it is the only one which might have some minimal chances, though
 

Nicole

I don't know if A-H would give up so much to satisfy Italy- certainly they wouldn't give up Trieste without a major fight, since most of their shipbuilding ability was based there. (And without it, the Austro-Hungarian Navy would be even worse!)
 

Nicole

Straha said:
THe otomans obviously get split
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I agree. The Western allies want the Ottomans lands too much, especially Palestine and Lebanon. Also, the British wanted Iraq to protect an oil pipeline... Here the Ottomans might end up with parts of Syria and possibly Iraqi Kurdistan depending on the Anglo-Persian pipeline route, but not much more than that.
 

Straha

Banned
Imajin said:
I agree. The Western allies want the Ottomans lands too much, especially Palestine and Lebanon. Also, the British wanted Iraq to protect an oil pipeline... Here the Ottomans might end up with parts of Syria and possibly Iraqi Kurdistan depending on the Anglo-Persian pipeline route, but not much more than that.
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Russia may want anatolia so they may not get even that.
 

Nicole

Straha said:
Russia may want anatolia so they may not get even that.
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Hm, forgot about Russia, it's still intact here isn't it... I don't know about any plans to give Russia all of Anatolia, though I think Constantinople may be given to them (though since Britain doesn't want Russia there they may "forget" their promise) and I think Turkish Armenia was promised to them as well.
 

Nicole

Othniel said:
Anything do in Anatollia is almost unenforacable.
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I disagree- defeating disorganized Greece and the just recently genocided Armenians is one thing, defeating the victorious (well, somewhat) Russian Army is another.
 

Othniel

Imajin said:
I disagree- defeating disorganized Greece and the just recently genocided Armenians is one thing, defeating the victorious (well, somewhat) Russian Army is another.
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The Russians at this point have lost in Poland and the Baltic States though, as well as failing to help their principle ally of Serbia. Russia is lucky to get the rest of the Caucus mountains.
 

Nicole

Right, and the Ottoman Army probably can't stand against the full thrust of the Russian Army- the thing that stopped them before was the fact that the British would get involved, here the territorial cessions are in a treaty agreed to by the British...
 

Straha

Banned
Imajin said:
Right, and the Ottoman Army probably can't stand against the full thrust of the Russian Army- the thing that stopped them before was the fact that the British would get involved, here the territorial cessions are in a treaty agreed to by the British...
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That and the british woudl rather be bordering on a friendly russia than the ottomans.
 

luakel

Straha said:
That and the british woudl rather be bordering on a friendly russia than the ottomans.
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I'm not too sure about that. While they were friendly at the time, the British obviously feared Russia before the war, and I don't think they'd want them getting too strong, as that would inevitably end with British and Russian interests clashing. I think that Britain would offer a peace to the Ottomans, and the Ottomans, realizing that they will very soon have the full might of the Rodina bearing down on then, will agree to the British-written peace that gives Russia some more land but keeps them from having a land border with Britain...
 

Nicole

Here's an attempt at depicting the zones of Turkey where Russia would likely have influence- red is my attempt at drawing the Turkish areas of Wilsonian Armenia, and green is the proposed zones of the straits- if Russia is annexing the Armenian area, the border might be moved up to lake Van as a buffer for Mesopotamia.

turkey zones.png
 

luakel

Imajin said:
Here's an attempt at depicting the zones of Turkey where Russia would likely have influence- red is my attempt at drawing the Turkish areas of Wilsonian Armenia, and green is the proposed zones of the straits- if Russia is annexing the Armenian area, the border might be moved up to lake Van as a buffer for Mesopotamia.
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I think that the rest of European Turkey (east of Constantinople) should go to Greece or Bulgaria...
 

Nicole

luakel said:
I think that the rest of European Turkey (east of Constantinople) should go to Greece or Bulgaria...
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Definately not Bulgaria... has Greece entered the war yet? I suppose it doesn't matter- Denmark never joined the war but got S-H...

Hm, I wonder how Russia would react if Britain allowed them to take Constantinople, but took the Dardanelles for themselves...
 
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