WI: Dom Pedro I doesn't abdicate in Portugal and Brazil

As a hypothetical, what do you think would have happened if Dom Pedro I had tried to remain King of Portugal in 1826 and Emperor of Brazil (in 1831 or otherwise) regardless of the circumstances?

I'm not trying to get an ongoing unified Portuguese-Brazilian Empire; just tell me what you realistically think would have happened.

where does he rule from?

seems to me you're asking for a unified Portugal-Brazil. He can't be king/emperor of both simultaneously unless they're unified.

It's sort of moot. He chooses one or the other. He can't keep both. He goes to Portugal, he can be king there, and have Brazil disintegrate and/or break away. He can stay in Brazil and rule, and watch Portugal break away.

What's best for either county is to choose. He does neither. He stays in Brazil, but meddles in Portugal, and then abandons Brazil in favor of Portugal.

Had he put his heart into Brazil, the country stays stable and continues to grow. Pedro II doesn't get rushed to the throne and spend almost his entire life doing what he really doesn't want to do. Maybe he doesn't get burnt out, maybe they don't marry him off at such a young age to a gal he's repulsed by, and actually gives a shit at the end and keeps the monarchy, preventing another period of backsliding.

Had he put his heart into Portugal upon his father's death (who the heck poisoned him, anyway?), Portugal gains the stability, instead of putting a 3 year old on the throne married to an absolute conservative ruler type uncle (that whole scenario is pretty warped, right there). Sure there would have been a power struggle between the old school and the new, but it possibly wouldn't have been so violent. After that, though, I can't see any way of Portugal ever being anything again.

Ultimately, Pedro I was the wrong man for the job, and picked the wrong horse in the race.

another TL

Pedro I doesn't jump the gun in declaring independence. Legend has it that Joao VI tells him to take the country rather than let some usurper grab it. Joao's ship has barely sailed before Pedro starts planning for independence. He declares independence before the Portugese gathering (having a brain fart as to what it was called) makes it obvious that they want to revert to colonial terms rather than equal ones.

Alternate TL could see him holding the fort. Thanks to the ever meddling Carlotta (sp, dang, another BF) and her lackey son Miguel, Joao regains the upper hand (OTL). had Pedro hung on, instead of jumping the gun, the union remains. Where it goes from there is beyond my feeble brain to decipher. Does the cisplatine war go differently, with support from mother Portugal? I'm thinking it does. Of course, there's that whole pesky Joao getting poisoned thing right in the middle of it. Maybe it gets butterflied away if he doesn't lose the jewel of the empire?

unprincipled peter said:

seems to me you're asking for a unified Portugal-Brazil. He can't be king/emperor of both simultaneously unless they're unified.

Click to expand...

Yeah I meant an ongoing unified empire, which I presume to be unworkable. I'll clarify the OP.

As to the question of where he rules from, what happens in each case? And which do you think he would most likely choose?

with the POD set at death of Dom Joao VI (1826) and decided to retain both crowns:

ruling from Brazil: definitely loses Portugal. Probably loses Brazil, as they're ticked at him for blowing money and losing the cisplatine war (OTL), and now they're also ticked at him splitting his time with the portugese (which they were to a good degree OTL with his attempt to place his daughter on the throne, but which would get racheted up big time with a reunion attempt). Meanwhile, Portugal isn't going to accept being second fiddle to Brazil, so they simply dump him and annoint a new King, or go republic.

ruling from Portugal: Probably keeps Portugal. Getting Brazil back in any form is a plus. They might actually agree to allowing Brazil to be a self governing nation. Brazil, though, is more questionable. There is no doubt that they have to be made a full partner with full rights and say in the empire. anything less and they're splitting. They're going to want to rule themselves, and as OTL showed they weren't capable of doing so without some unifying force, which is why the regency period between Pedro I and Pedro II was a fiasco and why Pedro II was declared an adult at 14 (I think that's the age). They need a king, and Pedro I has no kids old enough to fit the bill. I think he loses Brazil, and I think Brazil splits apart. Under this TL, Paraguay under F Lopez actually has a chance of succeeding in the expansion game, and you could have a strong, if not dominant Paraguay develop. This all seriously alters Argentina's TL, as they suffer defeat to Paraguay, and/or break up themselves. Either could lead to no conquest of the desert (late 1870's OTL) by Argentina, and Chile takes control of the lower half of Argentina (which was their goal OTL-I believe they only gave up claims to avoid Argentina getting involved in the Chile/Bolivia/Peru war of early 1880's. with a weakened Argentina, this isn't a concern, and who knows what the stronger Paraguay does during that war. Probably uses the opportunity to take more land from Bolivia)

as to which he chooses

IMO, it's fairly obvious. OTL, he first chose Brazil because he knew he couldn't have both and at the time was still siding with Brazil. In this ATL, he has to come to the same conclusion. It takes some serious magic to rule Portugal from Brazil, and you have to diminish Pedro's cognitive abilities (maybe he has a minor stroke?) to make him think he could do it. POD 1826, he HAS to choose ruling from Portugal and take a chance on placating Brazil enough to keep them in the fold. There is simply no way to regain control of Portugal without going there.

POD for ruling from Brazil is pre 1820. Outside chance that Joao declaring a moderate constitution while moving the throne permanently to Brazil placates the liberals in Portugal enough to allow Portugal accepting this. calls for some magic, but an alternate historian can always dream! IMO, it'd be more forward thinking to make that gambit and rise Phoenix-like, but who knows if the military would stay true to Joao, or to the mother country. It could have been glorious.

Well, you've given me quite a lot to go on. Cheers.